Transcript FROM THE COLLAPSE OF SOCIALISM TO THE CRISIS OF …

FROM THE COLLAPSE OF SOCIALISM
TO THE CRISIS OF CAPITALISM
Experiences of Central and Eastern
European Countries
19 th Conference on Alternative Economic Policy in
Europe
London, 20-22 September 2013
Jože Mencinger, PF UL and EIPF
CONVERGENCE OF CEE COUNTRIES TO EU AVERAGE
100
IND 1996
IND 2008
EU27
80
SI
60
CZ
40
EE
LA
20
BG
0
RO
LI
SK
PL
HU
LONG RUN DEVELOPMENT OF CEE
COUNTRIES
180
index
1996=100
170
CEE
160
150
140
EU15
130
120
110
100
90
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
CEE COUNTRIES AT THE END OF “GOLDEN ERA”
2007 or 2008
Population,
millions
GDP/
Capita
€
Unemp
rate
%
Export/
GDP
ratio
Export/
Capita
€
Current
Account
%GDP
Net
Financia
Position
% GDP
Budget
Balance
% GDP
Public
debt
% GDP
Credits
GDP
ratio
Czech R
10.3
13100
5.3
0.69
9600
-3.3
-36.6
-9.6
28.7
0.72
Estonia
1.34
10300
4.7
0.51
6310
-17.3
-75.0
2.5
3.4
-
Latvia
2.28
8200
6.0
0.30
3030
-22.9
-70.6
-0-3
9.7
1.15
Lithuania
3-38
7900
4.3
0.44
4770
-13.7
-49-9
-1.0
7.31
0.71
Hungary
10.1
9300
7.4
0.68
7340
-4.4
-109.9
-4.9
66.0
0.81
Poland
38.1
8100
9.6
0.32
3040
-3.7
-45.9
-1.9
45.2
0.59
Slovakia
5.40
11700
11.1
0.76
8950
-5.7
-49.7
-1.9
29.4
0.56
Slovenia
2.02
17300
4.9
0.59
11500
-4.9
-21.9
-0.1
24.1
1.09
Bulgaria
7.70
4000
6.9
0.40
1990
-21.5
-113.3
1.1
18.2
0.85
Romania
21.5
5800
6.4
0.24
1560
-14.1
-45.8
-2.5
13.0
0.53
EU15
330
27200
7.2
-
-
-
-
-0.7
66.3
-
EU27
501
23600
7.1
-
-
-
-
-0-9
59.0
-
THE DEPENDENCE OF CEE ON EU15
8
12
%
CEE
%
8
4
CEE
4
0
EU15
EU15
0
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
-4
HOUSEHOLDS CONSUMPTION
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
2001
30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2001
30
%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
%
20
CEE
20
CEE
10
10
0
EU15
INVESTMENTS DEMAND
-10
EU15
0
EXPORTS
-20
-10
-30
-40
-20
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND SOCIAL COHESION
OF EU STATES
94
100- risk of
poverty rate
CS
92
Slovenia
90
LU
HU
88
DK
SE
FI
NL
AT
F
86
BE
CY
LT
LA
84
DE
PL
EE
82
UK
GR
ES IT
80
IE PT
SK
employment rate
78
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
RANKING OF CEE COUNTRIES BY SOME RATING
INSTITUTIONS
Heritage
Foundation
Index
178 countries
Fraser
Freedom
Index
141 countries
WEF
Index
139 countires
ECI
Index
128 countries
HDI
Index
179 countries
Czech Republic
70.4 (3)
7.13 (6)
4.57 (2)
1.63 (1)
0.865 (2)
Estonia
75.2 (1)
7.52 (2)
4.61 (1)
0.79 (7)
0.835 (3)
Latvia
65.8 (6)
6.92 (9)
4.14 (9)
0.59 (9)
0.805 (8)
Lithuania
71.3 (2)
7.40 (4)
4.38 (5)
0.68 (8)
0.810 (7)
Hungary
66.6 (5)
7.52 (3)
4.33 (6)
1.43 (3)
0.816 (5)
Poland
64.1 (10)
70.0 (8)
4.51 (3)
1.02 (5)
0.813 (6)
Slovakia
69.5 (4)
7.56 (1)
4.25 (7)
1.38 (4)
0.834 (4)
Slovenia
64.6 (9)
6.78 (10)
4.42 (4)
1.52 (2)
0.884 (1)
Bulgaria
64.9 (7)
7.34 (5)
4.13 (10)
0.59 (10)
0.771 (10)
Romania
64.7 (8)
7.08 (7)
4.16 (8)
0.94 (5)
0.781 (9)
Values of Heritage Foundation index are between 89 and 22, Fraser index between 9.01 and 4.06, WEF between 5.63
and 2.73, ECI index between 2.31 and 0.19, HDI between 0.94 and 0.34; in bracquests position among CEE
countries.
POPULATION OF CEE COUNTRIES
132
1960=100
128
Slovenia
124
Visegrad
120
Baltic
116
112
RoBg
108
104
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
EXPOSURE OF CEE COUNTRIES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE CRISIS
GDP to
GDP27
2007
Export/
GDP
2007
Foreign
banks %
of assets
ROE of
banks
2007
Loan/
Deposit
ratio
July 2008
Current
Account/
GDP
2007
Net
Financial
Position/
GDP 2007
Czech Rep
81.3
0.69
83
25
0.77
-3.3
-36.6
Estonia
70.6
0.51
99
29
1.62
-17.3
-75.0
Latvia
58.0
0.30
63
26
2.90
-22.9
-79.6
Lithuania
61-0
0.44
92
29
1.53
-13.7
-49.9
Hungary
63.5
0.68
83
20
1.32
-4.4
-109.9
Poland
53.8
0.32
70
23
1.15
-3.7
-45.9
Slovakia
68,6
0.76
97
19
0.86
-5.7
-49.7
Slovenia
90.9
0.59
36
15
1.60
-4.9
-21.9
Bulgaria
38.1
0.40
80
24
1.29
-21.5
-113.3
Romania
40.0
0.24
88
26
1.27
-14.1
-45.8
PERFORMANCE IN THE CRISIS
16
%
Greece
change in unemployment 2008-2011
Spain
12
LA
Ireland
LT
BG
8
CY
Portugal
Estonia
Slovenia
4
UK
RO
Sweden
0
Germany
%
-4
-10
0
10
20
30
40
change in debt, 2008-2011
50
60
70
PERFORMANCE OF NMS AND EUROPEAN “SOUTH”
8
GDP GROWTH
%
CEE countries
4
0
-4
S outh Europe
GR,CY,S P,PT,IT
-8
-12
2003
2004
2005
20
16
2006
2007
2008
2009
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
2010
2011
2012
S outh Europe
GR,S P,PT, IT
%
12
CEE countries
8
4
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
CAPITAL FLOWS TO CEE DURING THE CRISIS
15,000
mil. €
10,000
inflows of FDI
5,000
0
-7736
-7784
-22892
-27096
-26828
-29015
balance
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
outflows of profits
-20,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
RECOVERY BY EXPORTS
EU27, “SOUTH”, NMS
40
%
30
NMS
EU27
20
10
"SOUTH"
0
-10
-20
-30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
RECOVERY BY EXPORTS – CEE COUNTRIES
50
%
40
30
RO,BG
Visegrad
20
Baltic
Slovenia
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013