Transcript Slide 1

Natural Gas in the United States
Big Potential, Big Uncertainty
Energy Bar Association
Mid-Year Meeting
Becca Followill
December 3, 2009
*Important Disclosure on page 11 of this document.
Natural Gas in the U.S.
Big Potential, Big Uncertainty
 Changing perceptions
 How can the resource best be developed?
 Challenges within the value chain
 Legal, legislative and regulatory avenues available
to maximize the resource
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Changing Perceptions
Guess the Source and Year
 “Can the American people find long-range solutions to this problem of voracious demand
versus uncertain supply? Can we manage to get through the critical years until the big
solutions may be ready? Understanding six basic truths about energy may help.
1. We are not running out of energy – yet.
2. Fossil fuels are, however, finite.
3. There is no quick fix.
4. There is no free lunch.
5. The energy problem is global; what we do affects everyone else.
6. Energy efficiency and conservation are all-important from now on.”
 “The DOE has been working toward a goal of 20% from renewables by the year 2000.”
 “Researchers are also looking more seriously at unconventional gas resources, long
considered uneconomic to develop. Huge volumes lie locked in the Devonian shales in
Appalachia, in the nation’s enormous coal beds…”
 “Optimists…claim that natural gas supplies could be increased to between 23 and 33 Tcf a
year through massive investments in alternative sources.”
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February 1981 – National Geographic
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How Can the Resource Best be Developed?
Environment
Consumer Protection
National Security
It’s a Balancing Act!
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Unexpected Implications of Policy Change
Total U.S. Electric Capacity Additions (1990-2007)
60
Gigawatts (GW)
50
40
30
20
10
Source: EIA/DOE, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Research
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
(10)
1990
0
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Future Policy – Potential Implications
$/MWh Required Levelized Power Price (Unsubsidized)
$240
$200
$160
$120
$175
$80
$40
$90
$80
$85
Coal
CCGT
Wind
$0
Capacity Factor
Construction cost $/kW
Solar
Coal
CCGT
Wind
Solar
95%
60%
35%
35%
$2,500
$1,000
$2,000
$4,500
Assumptions
• Natural gas $7/mcf, coal $60/ton
• Cost of equity 11.5%, cost of debt 7.5%
• Wind/solar use same assumptions as fossil generation
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Future Policy – Consider All-In Costs
$/MWh Required Levelized Power Price
$240
Back-up
generation
($50/MWh)
$200
$160
Back-up
generation
($50/MWh)
Transmission
($15/MWh)
$120
$175
$80
$40
$90
$80
$85
Coal
CCGT
Wind
$0
Capacity Factor
Construction cost $/kW
Solar
Coal
CCGT
Wind
Solar
95%
60%
35%
35%
$2,500
$1,000
$2,000
$4,500
Assumptions
• Natural gas $7/mcf, coal $60/ton
• Cost of equity 11.5%, cost of debt 7.5%
• Wind cost assumes incremental $500/kw for transmission (200 miles at $2.5/kW-mile)
• Wind/solar cost assumes simple cycle gas turbine built to ‘back-up’ intermittent generation at 50% of total capacity
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Challenges Within the Value Chain
EPA!
Tax Regime…
Incentives?
Dividend tax cut?
CFTC
changes?
Electric Cars…
Will they happen?
Infrastructure
needs?
Timing?
CO2 Regulation/Legislation…
Form? Cost? Who? Timing?
Commodit
y prices?
Allocation
of
transmission
costs?
Renewable
Portfolio
Standards
Cost to
comply?
Technology…
Carbon
sequestration
possible?
Conservation
…
Will utilities
be kept
whole?
Can the
grid handle
renewables
?
More
regulatory
oversight!
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Avenues to Maximize the Resource
Legal, Legislative, Regulatory
 Provide certainty
 Don’t change the rules
 Maintain perspective and balance
 Market is indifferent as long as there is clarity
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