Transcript Bild 1 - ICRIER

FTAs IN ASIA
Razeen Sally
European Centre for International Political Economy/
London School of Economics
FTAs IN ASIA
Papers:
-- FTAs and the prospects for regional integration in Asia, ECIPE
Working Paper, 2006
-- Trade policy in Asia, ECIPE Policy Brief, 2007
Available at www.ecipe.org
FTAs IN ASIA
• New wave of global economic integration, but …
• Asian trade policies: from non-discrimination
(unilateralism and GATT/WTO) to discrimination (FTAs)
• Focus: east and south Asia (“globalising Asia”)
FTAs IN ASIA
• Trade and FDI trends:
-- China; India; ASEAN; Japan; Korea; Taiwan
-- Implications for comparative advantage and the
emerging Asian/global division of labour
Asian countries: economic and trade indicators 2005
GDP
GDP
Growth
Population
Per
capita
GDP
PPP
GDP
Merchandise
Exports
Service
Exports
Total
Merchandise
Trade
Services
Trade
Trade/
GDP
FDI
Inflow
FDI/
GDP
(US$
bn)
(%)
(mn)
(US$)
(US$ bn)
(US$ bn)
(US$ bn)
(US$ bn)
(US$ bn)
(%)
(US$ bn)
(%)
China
2228.9
9.9
1304.5
1708.6
8572.7
761.9
73.9
1422.0
157.1
63.8
72.4
3.2
Indonesia
287.2
5.6
220.6
1302.2
847.4
86.2
5.1
155.7
22.3
54.2
5.3
1.8
Malaysia
130.1
5.3
25.3
5134.4
274.8
140.9
18.95
255.6
40.5
196.5
4.0
3.1
Philippines
98.3
5.1
83.1
1182.9
408.6
41.3
4.5
88.7
10.3
99.2
1.1
1.2
Singapore
116.8
6.4
4.4
26836.1
130.2
229.6
45.1
429.7
89.1
367.9
20.1
17.2
Thailand
176.6
4.5
64.2
2749.4
549.3
110.1
20.5
228.3
48.0
129.3
3.7
2.1
Vietnam
52.4
8.4
83.0
631.3
254.0
31.6
3.9
68.1
8.6
130.0
2.0
3.8
ASEAN-6
861.4
5.9
480.6
1792.3
2464.3
639.7
98.05
1226.1
218.8
142.3
36.2
4.2
India
785.5
8.5
1094.6
717.6
3815.5
95.1
56.1
229.9
108.3
29.3
6.6
0.8
Japan
4505.9
2.7
128.0
35214.5
3943.7
595.0
107.9
1109.8
240.5
24.6
2.8
>0.1
Korea
787.6
4.0
48.3
16309.0
1056.1
284.4
43.9
545.7
101.7
69.3
7.2
0.9
Taipei
346.4
4.1
22.7
15291.8
-
197.8
25.6
380.3
57.1
109.8
1.6*
0.5
HongKong
177.7
7.3
6.9
25593.6
214.5
292.1
62.2
592.3
94.6
333.3
35.9
20.2
TOTAL
9693.4
-
3085.6
3139.4
20066.8
2866.0
467.65
5506.1
978.1
-
162.7
-
World
44384.8
3.6
6400.0
6835.1
61027.5
10431.0
2415
21214.0
4760
47.8
916.3
2.1
Countries
*Whole of Taiwan. Source: World Bank. WTO statistical database. UNCTAD WIR 2006 and ADB
FTAs IN ASIA
Global/Asian policy trends
• Slowdown of liberalisation in developing countries; no
new liberalisation in OECD
• China the major exception: unilateral opening and WTO
accession; ASEAN slowdown; India behind
• Sceptics and the Washington Consensus: arguments
against liberalisation; worse climate for future
liberalisation
• Case for further market reforms and global integration?
FTAs IN ASIA
• Trade policy in Asia
-- Trends in countries and regions
-- WTO
-- FTAs
-- China and unilateral liberalisation
-- From non-discriminatory liberalisation (unilateral and
GATT/WTO) to discrimination
Applied Tariff rates in Asia
1995
2005
Japan
3.1
2.7
Korea
8.3
8.6
Taiwan
11.2
5.3
Hong Kong
0
0
Singapore
0.4
0
Malaysia
8.4*
7.5
Indonesia
14
6.5
Philippines
19.8
5.4
Thailand
21
9.9
Vietnam
13*
13.1
China
22.4
9
India
41
16
*Malaysia 1996 *Vietnam 1997. All tariff rates are based on unweighted averages for all goods in ad valorem rates,
or applied rates, or MFN rates whichever data is available in a longer period. Source: World Bank
Bound and applied MFN tariffs in Asia
Binding
Coverage
Bound Tariff
Rate
(All goods)
Applied Tariff
Rate
(Manufactures)
Applied Tariff
Rate
(Agriculture)
Overall applied
Tariff
Japan
99.6
5.0
3.3
10.4
4.7
Korea
94.4
16.1
6.6
42.5
11.9
China
100
10.0
9.5
15.0
10.3
Hong Kong
45.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Malaysia
83.7
14.5
8.1
2.1
7.3
Thailand
74.7
25.7
14.6
16.2
14.7
Indonesia
96.6
37.1
6.1
8.0
6.4
Philippines
66.8
25.6
6.9
11.8
7.5
Vietnam
-
-
12.9
18.1
13.7
Taiwan
100.0
6.1
5.5
16.3
6.9
Singapore
69.2
6.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
India
73.8
49.8
25.3
30.0
28.3
Pakistan
44.3
52.4
16.1
13.9
15.9
Bangladesh
15.8
163.8
19.2
21.7
19.5
Sri Lanka
37.8
29.8
9.6
15.4
10.2
The figures are simple unweighted averages of the tariff rates in percent from the year of 2003 and 2004.
Source: World Bank
Table x: Coverage Ratio of Non-tariff Barriers in Import Trade*
(Unweighted, percent)
1984-87
1988-90
1991-93
1997-2000
China
10.6
23.2
11.3
5.7
Indonesia
94.7
9.4
2.7
3.1
Korea, Rep
8.8
4.0
2.6
1.5
Malaysia
3.7
2.8
2.1
2.3
Philippines
44.9
---
---
1.8
Thailand
12.4
8.5
5.5
2.1
Notes:
…
Not available
*
Calculated as percentage of import value of HS6 tariff lines affected by NTBs in total imports. NTBs
include quantitative restrictions in the form of all types of licenses and import authorization, quotas, import
prohibitions, advanced import deposits, foreign exchange restrictions, fixed customs valuations, and state trading
monopolies. Figures reported under a given sub-period relates a single year within that sub-period.
Source: Hoekman et al (2002, Table A-4 and WTO, Trade Policy Review – Country Report
(various)
FTAs IN ASIA
• FTAs
-- Proliferation in Asia; catch up with other regions
-- Motives: foreign policy; WTO stalled
-- Building blocks? WTO-plus FTAs dependent on
economic strategy
-- But exceptions, not the rule
-- Trade-lite FTAs (except with USA and EU?)
-- Future of Asian FTAs?
FTAs IN ASIA
• China and FTAs
-- 9 FTAs; 30 under discussion/negotiation
-- China-ASEAN: increasing complementary trade but competing
sectors
-- Encouraging results on tariffs and rules of origin; WTO-compatible
but not WTO-plus; services and investment?
-- WTO-plus FTAs with HK and Macau
-- Negotiations with Aus and NZ
-- PTAs with SACU, India and others?
-- Overall: pragmatic, eclectic approach
-- Danger of politics-driven trade-light FTAs (unlike China in WTO); but
stronger FTAs in east Asia
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group
of countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement
2007
China
Pakistan
ASEAN
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
PTA
BIPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
-Agreement signed
-EHP in force
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Proposed
-Proposed
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Proposed
-Under negotiation
-Proposed
-Under study
-Proposed
-Proposed
-Proposed
Singapore
Thailand
India
Australia
New Zealand
Macao
Hong Hong
Chile
SACU
GCC
Iceland
Korea
Japan
Peru
Norway
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003 (cont’d)
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total trade,
2003 (%)
China
ASEAN
8.5
Thailand
1.5
Australia
1.6
India
0.9
Hong Kong
10.3
Macau
0.2
New Zealand 0.2
Chile
0.4
SACU
0.5
FTAs IN ASIA
• Southeast Asia and FTAs
-- Singapore’s FTAs: misleading indicator for region
-- Thailand a better indicator: all politics, no economic
strategy; trade-light
-- Bilateral FTAs take priority over ASEAN-plus FTAs (ROO
complications)
-- ASEAN FTAs: weak and partial?
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group
of countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement 2007
ASEAN
China
EPA
FTA
EPA
FTA
EPA
FTA
TIFA
EPA
FTA
-EHP in force
-Under negotiation
-EHP in force
-Under negotiation
-Framework Agreement signed
-Agreement in force
-Agreement signed
-Under negotiation
-Negotiation planned
India
Japan
Korea
USA
CER
EU
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total
trade, 2003 (%)
ASEAN-6
China
7.4
India
1.5
Japan
14.4
Korea
4.2
USA
15.0
CER
2.8
EU
12.4
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group
of countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement 2007
Malaysia
Japan
USA
Australia
New Zealand
EU
Korea
India
Pakistan
FTA
TIFA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
Chile
Canada
GCC
FTA
FTA
FTA
-Agreement in force
-Agreement signed
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Under study
-Proposed
-Under Study
-Under negotiation
-EHP in force
-Under negotiation
-Proposed
-Proposed
Japan
USA
EPA
FTA
Agreement signed
Proposed
Philippines
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003 (cont’d)
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total trade,
2003 (%)
Malaysia
Japan
13.6
USA
17.8
Australia
2.1
New Zealand
0.4
EU
12.0
Korea
4.1
India
1.7
Pakistan
0.4
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group
of countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement 2007
Singapore
Australia
Canada
Egypt
EFTA
EU
India
Japan
Jordan
Korea
Mexico
New Zealand
Sri Lanka
USA
Qatar
Peru
Panama
GCC
Brunei, Chile, NZ
China
Pakistan
Morocco
FTA
FTA
CECA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Under study
-Agreement in force
-Proposed (rejected by EU)
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Negotiation planed
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Under study
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003 (cont’d)
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total trade, 2003
(%)
Singapore
New Zealand
0.3
Sri Lanka
0.2
USA
14.2
Qatar
0.5
Peru
0.01
Panama
0.4
Kuwait
0.8
Bahrain
0.03
Brunei
0.2
Chile
0.03
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003 (cont’d)
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total trade, 2003
(%)
Singapore
Australia
2.5
Canada
0.4
Egypt
0.1
EFTA
1.1
EU
12.9
India
1.7
Japan
9.2
Jordan
0.01
Korea
4.0
Mexico
0.4
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group of
countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement
2007
Vietnam
USA
BTA
TIFA
BIT
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
-Agreement signed
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Proposed
-Proposed
Japan
Sri Lanka
Korea
Chile
Country / Group
of countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement
2007
Brunei
Singapore, Chile, NZ
Japan
FTA
FTA
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country /
Group of
countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement 2007
Thailand
Australia
Bahrain
China
India
Japan
Korea
New Zealand
Peru
South Africa
USA
BIMSTEC
FTA
FTA
PTA
EPA
FTA
EPA
FTA
PTA
PTA
FTA
FTA
-Agreement in force
-Agreement signed
-Agreement in force
-PTA in force
-Negotiations completed
-Under study
-Agreement in force
-Agreement signed
-Under study
-Negotiation postponed
-Framework Agreement signed
FTAs IN ASIA
• India and FTAs
-- Problems with SAFTA
-- Outside south Asia: trade light; foreign policy not
economic policy
-- Part of overall trade-policy profile (fitful unilateral
liberalisation and WTO defensiveness)
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country /
Group of
countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement 2007
India
ASEAN
China
FTA
BIPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
CEPA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
PTA
PTA
FTA
CEPA
FTA
FTA
BIPA
-Framework Agreement signed
-Proposed
-Proposed
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-PTA in force
-Framework Agreement signed
-Framework Agreement signed
-Framework Agreement signed
-Framework Agreement signed
-Agreement signed
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Under study
-Proposed
-Framework Agreement signed
-PTA signed
-Under negotiation
-Negotiation planned
-Proposed
-Under study
-Proposed
-Signed
Korea
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
BIMSTEC
SACU
COMESA
MERCOSUR
CEFTA
Mauritius
Japan
Malaysia
Brazil/South Africa
GCC
Chile
Egypt
EU
Russia
EFTA
USA
Trinidad & Tobago
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003 (cont’d)
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total trade,
2003 (%)
India
ASEAN
8.7
China
5.0
Korea
2.5
Singapore
3.0
Sri Lanka
1.1
Thailand
1.0
BIMSTEC
4.5
SACU
1.7
COMESA
1.2
MERCOSUR
0.9
Table 15
Trade among recently established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs partners
involving ASEAN, China and India, 2003 (cont’d)
Country/
Grouping
Partners
Share in total trade,
2003 (%)
India
Mauritius
0.1
Japan
3.1
Malaysia
2.1
South Africa
1.7
GCC
7.2
Chile
0.2
Egypt
0.3
FTAs IN ASIA
• Japan and FTAs
-- Japan-ASEAN: bilaterals take priority; agriculture carve
outs; unambitious on other market access; ROO
restrictiveness
-- Trade light and reactive compared with China
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group
of countries
Partners
Nature of
Agree
ment
Status of Agreement 2007
Japan
ASEAN
Malaysia
Singapore
Philippines
Vietnam
EPA
FTA
FTA
EPA
BIT
FTA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
-Framework agreement signed
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Agreement signed
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Negotiations completed
-Under negotiation
-Proposed
-Under negotiation
-Agreement in force
-Proposed
-Proposed
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
-Proposed
-Under negotiation
-Under negotiation
Thailand
India
China
Korea
Mexico
Cambodia
Laos
Indonesia
Chile
Switzerland
GCC
Brunei
FTAs IN ASIA
• South Korea and FTAs
-- Defensive on agriculture, but more serious than other
Asian players
-- US-Korean FTA negotiations
Table 14: Recently Established or Proposed RTAs/CEPAs
in ASEAN, China and India, 2000-2007 (cont’d)
Country / Group of
countries
Partners
Nature of
Agreement
Status of Agreement 2007
Korea
ASEAN
Malaysia
Singapore
Vietnam
Thailand
India
China
Chile
EFTA
USA
EU
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
GCC
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
EPA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
FTA
-Agreement in force (except Thailand)
-Proposed
-Agreement in force
-Proposed
-Under study
-Under negotiation
-Proposed
-Agreement in force
-Agreement in force
-Under negotiation
-Negotiation planed
-Under negotiation
-Under study
-Proposed
-Proposed
FTAs IN ASIA
• USA, EU and FTAs in Asia
-- US negotiations in Asia: Thailand, Malaysia, Korea
-- Changes in US trade policy: greater defensiveness; more difficult to
negotiate agreements
-- EU’s new Asian FTA policy
-- EU negotiations: India, Korea, ASEAN
-- EU-China
FTAs IN ASIA
• Regional economic integration
-- APEC: a better yesterday
-- ASEAN: Visions galore, but where’s the beef? CEPT
progress but little else
-- APT, EAEC, AEC etc.: Any common denominators?
Empty talk?
-- FTAs unlikely to contribute much to regional economic
integration; disintegration dangers (ROO etc)
The map shows FTAs signed or under negotiation in January 2006.
East Asia is defined here as the 10 ASEANs, China, Japan and Korea. Source Richard Baldwin 2006
Noodle bowl syndrome in Africa
Source: World Bank
Noodle bowl syndrome in America
Source: Inter-American Development Bank.
FTAs IN ASIA
• Asia in the WTO
-- India: defensive, but slightly more flexible than before
-- China: pragmatic, flexible but low key
-- ASEAN: mixed; distracted with FTAs
-- Japan/Korea: defensive, passive, punching below weight
-- Asia needs effective WTO; but distracted with FTAs
ASIA, GLOBALISATION, TRADE POLICY
Unilateral liberalisation – role of China
• WTO, FTAs and diminishing returns to
trade negotiations
• Rely more on unilateral reforms and
competitive emulation; the Chinese engine
• But leaves gaps, e.g. agriculture and rules
Share of total tariff reduction, by type of
liberalization, 1983–2003
Multilateral
Agreements
25%
Autonomous
Liberalization
66%
Regional
Agreements
10%
Source: World Bank
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2005/Resources/GEP107053_Ch02.pdf
Unilateral tariff cutting in Phase II.
The diagram shows tariff revenue divided by total imports. Source: Richard Baldwin 2006; Ando and Kimura (2005).
Formal unilateralism; reductions in applied MFN tariffs on
Source: Richard Baldwin 2006: Kimura, Takahashi, and Hayakawa (2005)
ASIA, GLOBALISATION, TRADE POLICY
• Three Post-Doha priorities
-- WTO
--FTAs
-- China-led unilateral liberalisation