Transcript Bild 1 - ECIPE

EU BILATERAL AGENDA WITH
STRATEGIC TRADE PARTNERS
Razeen Sally
European Centre for International Political Economy/
London School of Economics
EU BILATERALS
 Trade and FDI patterns
 EU bilateral trade policy: Global Europe; Trade,
Growth, World Affairs
 FTAs in Asia
 EU bilaterals: policy issues
EU BILATERALS
 EU and strategic trade partners
-- Bilateral trade and FDI
-- Comparative trade barriers
Leading EU27 Import & Export Countries
Merchandise trade - Excluding intra-EU trade (2010)
EU Imports + Exports
EU Imports from
EU Exports to
Country
Rank
World
Mio euro
% world
2 840 684
100.0
Rank
Mio euro
% world
1 492 175
100,0
Rank
Mio euro
% world
1 348 509
100,0
USA
1
411 649
14.5
2
169 297
11.3
1
242 353
18.0
China
2
395 106
13.9
1
281 996
18.9
2
113 111
8.4
Russia
3
241 424
8.5
3
154 909
10.4
4
86 515
6.4
Switzerland
4
189 556
6.7
5
84 123
5.6
3
105 432
7.8
Japan
6
108 554
3.8
4
64 845
4.3
6
43 709
3.2
Brazil
10
63 566
2.2
10
32 290
2.2
9
31 277
2.3
India
8
67 784
2.4
9
32 991
2.2
8
34 793
2.4
South Korea
9
66 584
2.3
8
38 602
2.6
10
27 981
2.1
Canada
11
46 609
1.6
15
20 045
1.3
14
26 564
2.0
Singapore
12
42 638
1.5
17
18 658
1.3
15
23 981
1.8
Malaysia
23
31 926
1.1
14
20 684
1.4
28
11 241
0.8
Thailand
25
27 172
1.0
19
17 188
1.2
32
9 985
0.7
Indonesia
33
20 065
0.7
23
13 690
0.9
38
6 375
0.5
Vietnam
38
14 072
0.5
32
9 401
0.6
45
4 671
0.3
Philippines
45
9 113
0.3
43
5 373
0.4
49
3 739
0.3
ASEAN - 6
144 986
5.1
84 994
5.8
59 992
4.4
Leading EU27 Import & Export Countries
Services trade - excluding intra-EU trade (2009)
Country
EU Imports + Exports
EU Imports from
EU Exports to
Rank Bln euro % world Rank Bln euro % world Rank Bln euro % world
World
1194.6
100,0
542.9
100,0
651.7
100,0
USA
1
246.3
20.6
1
126.5
23.3
1
119.8
18.4
Canada
-
19
1.6
-
8.2
1.5
-
10.8
1.7
China
2
32.4
2.7
2
13.6
2.5
2
18.8
2.9
Japan
3
29.9
2.5
3
13.3
2.4
3
16.6
2.5
Brazil
-
15.7
1.3
-
6.5
1.2
-
9.2
1.4
India
-
16.6
1.4
-
7.6
1.4
-
9
1.4
Korea*
-
12.2
1.0
-
4.4
0.8
-
7.8
1.2
ASEAN
-
38.7
3.2
-
18.3
3.4
-
20.4
3.1
* Services figures taken from 2006 and based on 2008 for % world figures.
EU 27 OFDI and IFDI Stocks
with Main World Partners (2009) in billion of euros
EU 27 OFDI and IFDI Flows
with Main World Partners (2009) in billion of euros
Average MFN Applied Tariffs and Bound Rates by Major Sector (2009)
Binding
Coverage
(All Goods)
Bound Tariff
Rate
(All Goods)
Applied Tariff
Rate
(Manufactures)
Applied Tariff
Rate
(Agriculture)
Overall
Applied Tariff
(All Goods)
EU
100.0
5.2
4.0
13.5
5.3
US
100.0
3.5
3.3
4.1
3.5
Canada
99.7
6.7
3.5
10.7
4.5
Japan
99.7
5.1
2.5
21.0
4.9
Brazil
100.0
31.4
14.1
10.2
12.1
Korea
94.6
16.6
6.6
48.6
11.9
China
100.0
10.0
8.7
15.6
9.6
Hong Kong
45.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Malaysia
84.3
24.0
7.6
13.5
8.4
Thailand
75.0
28.2
8.0
22.6
9.9
Indonesia
95.8
37.1
6.6
8.4
6.8
Philippines
67.0
25.7
5.8
9.8
6.3
Vietnam
100.0
11.4
9.7
18.9
10.9
Taiwan
100.0
6.4
4.5
16.6
6.1
Singapore
69.7
10.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
India
73.8
48.5
10.1
31.8
12.9
Pakistan
98.7
59.9
13.4
17.1
13.9
Bangladesh
15.5
169.2
14.3
17.6
14.7
Sri Lanka
38.1
30.2
9.2
24.8
11.2
Country/
economy
World Ranking
Ease of Doing Business (2011)
Ease of
Doing
Business
Starting
a
Business
Dealing with
Constr.
Permits
Registe
ring
Property
Getting
Credit
Protec
ting
Investors
Paying
Taxes
Trading
Across
Borders
Enfor
cing
Contracts
Closing
a
Business
1
4
2
15
6
2
4
1
13
2
2
6
1
56
2
3
3
2
2
15
Japan
5
6
7
16
18
9
27
3
60
98
27
10
29
22
44
12
30
37
74
59
6
15
32
15
15
5
28
5
74
16
62
13
10
49
112
20
5
41
8
24
8
30
58
5
19
14
5
3
13
1
Thailand
19
95
12
19
72
12
91
12
25
46
Malaysia
21
113
108
60
1
4
23
37
59
55
Vietnam
78
100
62
43
15
173
124
63
31
124
China
79
151
181
38
65
93
114
50
15
68
Indonesia
121
155
60
98
116
44
130
47
154
142
Brazil
127
128
112
122
89
74
152
114
98
132
India
134
165
177
94
32
44
164
100
182
134
Philippines
148
156
156
102
128
132
124
61
118
153
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
Denmark
Canada
Korea, Rep.
Indicators for Trading
Across Borders (2011)
Ease of
Trading
Across
Borders
(World
Ranking)
Documents
for
export
Time
for
export
Cost
to
export
Documents
for
Import
Time
for
import
Singapore
Cost to
import
(number)
(days)
(US$ per
container)
(number)
(days)
(US$ per
container)
1
4
5
456
4
4
439
Hong Kong
2
4
6
625
4
5
600
Korea, Rep.
8
3
8
790
3
7
790
Thailand
12
4
14
625
3
13
795
United States
20
4
6
1,050
5
5
1,315
Japan
24
4
10
1,010
5
11
1,060
Malaysia
37
7
18
450
7
14
450
Canada
41
3
7
1,610
4
11
1,660
Indonesia
47
5
20
704
6
27
660
China
50
7
21
500
5
24
545
Philippines
61
8
15
675
8
14
730
Vietnam
63
6
22
555
8
21
645
India
100
8
17
1,055
9
20
1,025
Brazil
114
8
13
1,790
7
17
1,730
OECD
-
4.4
10.9
1,058.70
4.9
11.4
1,106.30
The Enabling Trade Index (2008)
Overall Rank
Market Access
Border
Administration
Country
Transport and
Communications
Infrastructre
Business
Evironment
Rank
Score
Rank
Score
Rank
Score
Rank
Score
Rank
Score
Singapore
1
6.06
1
5.97
1
6.56
7
5.74
2
6.00
Hong-Kong
2
5.70
16
5.12
6
5.96
5
5.79
5
5.94
Denmark(EU)
3
5.41
95
3.76
3
6,22
8
5.71
3
5.96
Canada
8
5.29
25
4.85
17
5.61
20
5.24
18
5.45
US
19
5.03
62
4.17
19
5.60
11
5.49
37
4.86
Japan
25
4.80
121
3.20
16
5.65
14
5.45
34
4.91
Korea
27
4.72
111
3.63
24
5.24
15
5.37
44
4.65
Malaysia
30
4.71
31
4.71
44
4.57
24
4.95
51
4.59
China
48
4.32
79
3.87
48
4.53
43
4.13
41
4.74
Thailand
60
4.13
113
3.48
41
4.61
40
4.19
71
4.24
Indonesia
68
3.97
60
4.21
67
3.99
85
3.28
60
4.42
Vietnam
71
3.96
50
4.41
88
46
68
3.62
64
4.34
India
84
3.81
115
3.42
68
3.98
81
3.24
58
4.48
Brazil
87
3.76
104
3.72
80
3.70
66
3.64
83
4.00
Philippines
92
3.72
64
4.13
74
3.82
83
3.31
103
3.61
EU BILATERALS
 EU bilateral trade policy
-
-
Global Europe: economic/commercial rationale; WTO plus; but also
non-trade motives; differences with EPAs/MENA
Trade, Growth, World Affairs: Update and fleshing out; more emphasis
on big trading partners, stronger provisions on regulatory market
access in bilateral agreements and stronger trade enforcement
Benchmarks for (relatively) strong, clean FTAs and non-FTA
frameworks with other strategic trade partners
How serious is the economic/commercial logic?
Market access and non-trade motives (labour/environmental
standards; “sustainable development”; climate change etc.)
Comparisons with US FTAs on WTO plus issues; implications for EU
trade policy after the Lisbon Treaty
Overall context: no substitute for intra-EU reforms and multilateral
progress; otherwise narrow mercantilism, trade diversion, spaghetti/
noodle bowls
Status of EU FTAs and their share of EU trade (%)
REGIONS AND FTA STATUS
OPERATIONAL FTAS
Chile, Mexico, South Developing country
Africa
FTAs
Andorra, San Marino,
Turkey, Iceland,
EFTA and customs
Liechtenstein,
Unions
Norway, Switzerland
Caribbean ACP
EPAs
Algeria, Egypt,
Israel, Jordan,
Mediterranean
Lebanon, Morocco,
countries, FTAs
Occupied Palestinian
Territory, Tunisia
Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Croatia, Western Balkans,
Former Yugoslav
Stabilisation and
Republic of
Association
Macedonia,
Agreements
Montenegro, Serbia
FTA NEGOTIATIONS CONCLUDED BUT
NOT YET APPLIED, ONGOING AND
PLANNED FTA NEGOTIATIONS
Bolivia, Ecuador,
Peru, Colombia
Andean Community
Industrial products*
Agricultural products**
Imports (%)
Exports (%)
Imports (%)
Exports (%)
22.3
27.7
24.3
29.1
2.5
3.4
5.7
2.2
14.6
15.9
11.6
14.6
0.3
0.3
1
0.6
4
5.9
4.5
7.9
0.9
2.2
1.5
3.7
21.8
25.6
56.2
26.2
0.4
0.6
5.3
0.4
Cont. Status of EU FTAs and their share of EU trade (%)
REGIONS AND FTA STATUS
Industrial products*
Agricultural products**
Imports (%)
Exports (%)
Imports (%)
Exports (%)
ASEAN
5.4
4.6
9.8
4.2
Central America
0.2
0.4
2.8
0.4
Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC)
2
5.3
0.3
5.1
MERCOSUR
1.5
2.5
20.9
1.5
Other FTAs
10
9.1
7.2
8
ACPs less Caribbean EPAs
2.3
3.2
10.5
6.6
NO FTAS
Australia, China,
Japan, New Zealand, Major trading partners
Russia, United States
Rest of the World (~
70 countries)
55.8
46.7
19.5
44.7
50.3
38.6
16.6
35.8
5.5
8.1
2.9
8.9
Cont.
Brunei Darussalam,
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand,
Vietnam
Costa Rica, El
Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras Nicaragua,
Panama
Bahrain, Kuwait,
Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, United Arab
Emirates
Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay, Uruguay
Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Canada, Georgia,
India, Korea, Libya,
Moldova, Syria,
Ukraine
FTAs IN ASIA
 FTAs
-
Context: stalled liberalisation; creeping regulatory
protectionism (partly crisis-related); from nondiscriminatory liberalisation to discriminatory FTAs
Proliferation in Asia; catch up with other regions
Motives: foreign policy; WTO stalled; building blocks to
regional and global economic integration?
Trade-lite FTAs (except with USA and EU?): focus on tariff
liberalisation/elimination – but neglect of non-tariff and
regulatory barriers; risks of trade distortions but limits to
trade/investment creation and dynamic gains
FTAs IN ASIA
 Asian FTA players
-- China: trade-lite (eg., China-ASEAN to partial-scope
agreements)
-- Japan: also trade lite; unambitious on market access and big
carve outs
-- South Korea: more serious, e.g. US and EU FTAs
-- ASEAN: Singapore the exception, otherwise weak FTAs;
bilaterals take priority over ASEAN+1 FTAs
-- India: v. weak FTAs; part of overall defensive trade policy
REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN
ASIA
 Regional economic integration
-
APEC: diverse, unwieldy, diffuse agenda; FTAAP unlikely
-
ASEAN: Visions galore, but where’s the beef? CEPT progress;
AFAS, AIA weak; little progress on regulatory barriers; AEC
and ASEAN Charter: paper tigers?
-
SAFTA: v. trade-light (excludes over half of trade); risks trade
diversion; throttled Indo-Pak trade
-
TPP: Building bloc to wider Asia-Pacific FTA?; odds against a
deep-integration FTA; US demands on labour and
environmental standards; excludes China – divisive
economically and geopolitically?
REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN
ASIA
•
Regional economic integration (cont.)
-
Wider regional integration initiatives: Northeast Asian FTA; ASEAN plus 3;
ASEAN plus 6
-
The case for a region-wide FTA: specialisation; economies of scale and
dynamic gains; reduce trade diversion from noodle bowl; all depends on a
comprehensive, WTO-plus FTA
-
But it could compromise global integration, esp. processing trade and
extension of global supply chains
-
Huge economic and political differences in Asia make clean, strong FTAs very
unlikely; rather trade-light FTAs adding to noodle bowl
-
Conclusion: FTAs unlikely to contribute much to regional economic
integration; reliance on bilateral FTAs; disintegration dangers
EU BILATERALS
• EU bilaterals: policy issues
-- USA: tariffs and NTBs
-- Canada: FTA
-- Mercosur and other FTAs in Latin America
-- GCC
-- Russia and Ukraine
-- Low-income countries and LDCs (EPAs, GSP, GSP+,
EBA)
EU-ASIA FTAs
 EU-Korea
-- Estimated effects: tackling NTBs
-- Comprehensive tariff elimination; short transition periods
-- Ban on export restraints
-- Sector-specific agreements to tackle NTBs
-- FDI, GATS-plus, govt. procurement, IPR enforcement,
competition (state aids), dispute settlement
-- Trade and Sustainable Development
-- Regulatory transparency
EU-ASIA FTAs
 EU-ASEAN
-
-
-
Estimated FTA effects: crucial to tackle NTBs and have major
services liberalisation
Existing bilateral cooperation framework: TREATI and PCAs
From TREATI to FTA
EU-ASEAN talks failed: v. low ASEAN common denominator
and lack of common negotiating machinery
EU-Singapore FTA: strong FTA likely
EU-Malaysia/Vietnam/Indonesia/Philippines/Thailand: big
challenge to negotiate strong FTAs
Limited gains from such bilateral FTAs; risks of trade
distortions
EU-ASIA FTAs
 EU-India
-
Estimated effects
-
Extreme difficulty of negotiating strong FTA with
India, esp. on NTBs and regulatory issues
-
Issues: agriculture; NAMA; services; investment,
other WTO plus issues, NTBs
-
Indian concerns on labour and environmental
standards
EU-ASIA FTAs
• EU-Japan
-- Tariffs and NTBs: views from both sides
-- Lack of Japanese ambition
-- Moving towards an FTA negotiation?
EU BILATERALS
 EU-China
-
FTA not on the cards
-
Existing bilateral cooperation framework (PCA, regulatory
dialogues up to HLD): too soft; how to strengthen?
-
Avoid non-trade linkages; don’t exaggerate
macroeconomic issues (bilateral deficit and exchange rate)
-
Focus on market access, esp. regulatory issues
-
Both EU and China have legitimate market-access issues
EU BILATERALS
• EU-China (cont.): issues
-- Raw materials and export restraints
-- Services
-- Investment (both ways)
-- IPR
-- Government Procurement
-- Norms and standards (both ways)
-- Subsidies
-- MES and trade remedies
-- Better prioritising and constructing quid pro quos
EU BILATERALS
• EU-China: Conclusion
-- Better prioritising and constructing quid pro quos
-- Constructive reciprocity vs. destructive reciprocity
(threatening punitive measures)
-- Better bilateral relations if stalled domestic reforms are
revived