Transcript Canada in the Global Futures Forum

Using international security
research networks:
the Global Futures Forum
Jean-Louis Tiernan
Sr. Coordinator, Academic Outreach
Canadian Security Intelligence Service
What the GFF is
• Global knowledge network
• Launched by Canada and
the U.S
Foresight
• Driven by governments
• Involves over 40 countries
• Serves security and
intelligence
• Steers clear of policy
prescriptions
• Examines transnational
security issues
Research
Expert
outreach
What the GFF does
To reap the benefits of networked collaboration for intelligence analysis, the
GFF:
• Tests current thinking, challenges analytic assumptions, widens the
range of considered outcomes, and discovers questions that are not
being asked;
• Complements traditional intelligence analysis by creating a context to
interpret classified information;
• Generates collaborative insights and early warning of potential threats
and opportunities that might go unrecognised by relying solely on
traditional intelligence;
• Enables rapid learning through real-time exchanges;
• Encourages the sharing, co-creation, and integration of new analytic
methodologies;
• Creates non-traditional linkages among governments, academe,
think-tanks and business.
GFF and traditional intelligence
Global Futures Forum
Complementarity
Collaborative insights
Promotes diversity of opinion
Bottom-up formulation of issues that need
to be considered
Global perspectives
Unclassified, focus on broad and longerterm issues
Traditional intelligence
Analysis and collection
Drives towards common assessment
Top-down levying of requirements for
questions that need to be answered
Focus on national perspectives
Classified, focus on tactical and operational
concerns
An evolving idea: history of the GFF
The GFF is the outcome of international conferences:
Rome
2004
Prague
2006
Washington
2005
Singapore
2010
Vancouver
2008
How it works
The General Meetings
• The international conferences which led to the GFF have become interactive meeting
points for the global analytic community. Hosted by a different country every year, the
annual meeting, likened by some to a “mini Davos of analysis”, sets the direction of
the GFF for the year ahead. It also provides a platform to examine emerging issues.
Communities of interest and other substantive activities
• Communities of interest (COIs), led and developed by various countries, meet
between the annual meetings to discuss specific global security issues. Existing and
past COIs have looked into: radicalisation, global disease, illicit trafficking, social
networks, technological surprise, genocide prevention, proliferation, the practise and
organisation of intelligence, economic security and strategic foresight and warning.
On-line collaboration
• Between face-to-face meetings, the current 1500 individual members use the
password-protected site to share resources and exchange using blogs, discussion
forums, wikis, etc.
Role of CSIS and Canada’s place
• Plans and develops the participation of Canada’s S&I
community in the Forum;
• Chairs informal national advisory group (PCO, CSIS,
DND, CBSA, DFAIT, RCMP) to co-ordinate input;
• Supports our U.S. intelligence partners in developing
and expanding the Forum globally;
• Sets Canadian position on governance issues;
• Chairs GFF Steering Group;
• Serves as strategic facilitator: Canada now most active
member country.
Results so far
Contents point of view
• Community of interest on radicalisation (Meech Lake, Brussels, Ottawa, The
Hague, Singapore). Those have allowed the community to understand an
issue characterised by an extreme case of information overflow.
• Innovative methodologies to explore trends in radicalisation were used,
including alternative scenarios.
• Systems model to understand the linkages between actors and motivations
in illicit trafficking (small arms, drugs, humans).
Process point of view
• “Early signals”: As a result of Canada’s involvement, rehearsed professional
networks are now in place and can be relied on to receive updates from
various capitals or research centres.
• Vancouver 2008: Canada emerges as an innovator in intelligence.
• Significant boost to launch CSIS Academic Outreach program in 2008.
What next?
Some upcoming activities
•
Making foresight “actionable” (U.S.) – 18-19 March
•
Prosperity and Security: the Challenges of Uncertain Economic Times
(Canada) – 8 March and 15 April
•
Practise and organisation of intelligence (Denmark) – 20-22 June
•
Practise and organisation of intelligence (Switzerland) – early 2011
•
Food security (Canada) – early 2011
Some lessons learned
Making networks work?
•
Foresight is important can be discredited easily with bad planning
•
Identify your needs as government
•
Manage your expectations; set goals
•
Star small and use precise focus
•
Use GFF as an entrepreneurial lab
Becoming involved
www.globalfuturesforum.org
Janelle Boucher
[email protected]
Jean-Louis Tiernan
[email protected]