Transcript New submarine Timeline - Scottish Campaign for Nuclear
Trident Replacement: the practical implications
Presentation to British Pugwash AGM 8 April 2008 John Ainslie Coordinator, Scottish CND
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile Warhead Targeting
“Successor” Submarine
New submarine Timeline
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Concept Design Initial Design Initial Gate Detail Design Outputs Build Main Gate
Nuclear-Powered Submarines
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
Astute Successor MUFC
Reactor for “Successor”
Rolls Royce Royal Navy
PWR2 New Design
P P
New Generation Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP)
“avoid pumped flow systems” Steve Ludham RR “a modern & much simpler plant” Rear Admiral Matthews
USS Narwhal (1969 – 1999)
When built - quietest submarine
Continuous Patrols
One armed submarine on patrol at all times Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable “our planned future programme should take us up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews
1968-2007 2008-2060 ?
Total Patrols
300 450 750
Infrastructure - Devonport
Refit Dockyard
Infrastructure - Derby
Fuel Rod Fabrication
Infrastructure - Faslane
Submarine Base and Shiplift
Infrastructure - Coulport
Explosives Handling Jetty
Infrastructure - Dounreay
Submarine Reactor Prototype & overhaul of coolant pumps
The Scottish Question
“the Parliament … calls on the UK Government not to go ahead at this time with the proposal in the White Paper, The Future of the United Kingdom’s Nuclear
Deterrent” 14 June 2007 71 for 16 against 39 abstained 2 did not vote
If not Scotland where ?
1963 Polaris option - Falmouth
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile Warhead Targeting
Missile System
Underwater Launched Missile System (ULMS) New US missile to replace Trident D5 In service by 2029 Initial concept studies started in 2007 Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007
Missile options 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060 Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042 ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029
Underwater Launched Missile System “any successor to the D5 system should be compatible with, or be capable or being made compatible with, the launch system for the D5 missile” Bush to Blair Dec 2006 “concepts for future submarines may have missile tubes larger than 87 inches in diameter” ULMS Test Bed Request for Information 7 Nov 2007
Future RV system ?
Manoeuvrable Reentry Vehicle (MaRV) Developed for nuclear Trident (E2 RV) Revived for Conventional Trident Option for ULMS ?
Operational independence ?
“without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months” Sir Charles Ellworthy, CDS, March 1971
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile Warhead Targeting
Nuclear Warhead
The special nuclear relationship 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement Solly Zuckerman – no interest beyond Polaris Polaris upgrade – to revive relationship Peter Jones – “whether the UK had done it themselves”
The first UK thermonuclear bomb
Red Snow warhead
Not based on Grapple design Anglicised version of US Mk 28 warhead
The Polaris family Polaris Chevaline WE 177
US or UK Origin Polaris WE 177B WE 177A Primary UK design Cleo test Primary US design W 58 Secondary US design W 59 Jennie Katie Reggie Simon Katie A Chevaline WE 177C Katie A Harriet Reggie Reggie source: www.nuclear-weapons.info
Origin of the UK Trident design UK design “The warhead was designed in the UK” Bob Ainsworth Mar 08 1978 – 1980 4 tests of UK lightweight warhead; 50 kiloton yield Primary uses British High Explosive Anglicised US design “The warheads were anglicised by the AWE” National Archives opened door to details of US designs; 6 further tests 1980-87 Secondary probably derived from US design (as with Polaris family)
US components in UK Trident warhead
… it was decided on cost-effectiveness grounds to procure certain non-nuclear warhead components from the United States . (B ob Ainsworth) Arming, Fusing & Firing System Neutron Generator Gas Transfer System ?
Future of the US nuclear stockplie
Life Extension Reliable Replacement Warhead
US Life Extension Programmes (LEP)
B61-7/11 LEP underway W80 LEP cancelled W76 Major LEP
US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
More reliable ?
Safer More secure Increased weight and size
US Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW)
Livermore design chosen No funding FY 2008 Advanced Certification Funding request FY 2009
US Nuclear Weapon Reviews
Congress Commission Policy Review Posture Review Report date 2008 2009 2010
Options for British warheads
Life Extension or High Surety Warhead Life Extension underway since 2000 Britain will probably follow US lead
New UK High Surety Warhead
Features – IHE, FRP, No Be Design Options
Design
Modified UK Trident Modified UK TD-127 Anglicised US WR1
Previous tests
None ??
US W89
Warhead components
Reentry Vehicle (RV) case Life Extension
Mk 4 RV Replace some fittings
New Warhead
Larger Mk 5 RV New production
Plutonium pit Life Extension
No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead
New Pit Fire Resistant
Pit Tube Life Extension
Replace pit tube
Tamper Life Extension
Beryllium No replacement
New Warhead
Substitute for Beryllium
High Explosives Life Extension
US – replace after 30 yrs UK - EDC 37 High Explosive - replace after 16 ? years
New Warhead
Insensitive High Explosives Safer, Larger & Heavier
Detonation System Life Extension
Replace detonators
New Warhead
Optical initiated firing system
Secondary HEU Life Extension
No replacement Lifespan 60 years plus
New Warhead
New HEU secondary
Interstage Life Extension
Remanufacture Fogbank
New Warhead
Substitute for Fogbank Substitute for Beryllium
Radiation Case Life Extension
No replacement
New Warhead
New simpler design
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System AWE vacancy Warhead Electrical Engineer
Support the approval programme for the introduction of the system into UK Trident AWE website Support the approval programme for the introduction of the Mk4A AF&F system into UK Trident Beechgrove Recruiting
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System MK4A AF&F
key part of US W76-1 warhead upgrade / LEP advanced fuzing options increased targeting flexibility and effectiveness increase the warfighting effectiveness of the D5 system introduced in UK Trident system by 2017
Arming, Fuzing & Firing System Life Extension
upgrade to Mk4A
New Warhead
New design
Neutron Generator Life Extension
MC4380 introduced 2003
New Warhead
New design
Gas Transfer System Life Extension
Acorn (UK 2005) Acorn II (LEP)
New Warhead
New design
Warhead Timeline
08 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 W76-0 and W76-1 Reliable Replacement Warhead Initial lifespan New AF&F or Refurbished Warhead High Surety Warhead
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston Orion Laser
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston Hydrus Hydrodynamic Facility
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston High Explosives Fabrication Facility
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston Uranium Production Facility
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston Refurbish A90
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston Refurbish A45
Modernisation of AWE
Aldermaston New Supercomputers
Modernisation of AWE
Burghfield New Warhead Assembly & Dissassembly Facility Current Gravel Gerties
AWE budget 2005 - 2011
£ million 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Development Running costs 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Tritium supply
2006 2054 Tritium decays with half-life of 12 years No current source of UK tritium New facility ? – linked to civil nuclear
Lower yield warhead
the continued availability of a lower yield from our warhead Future of UK Nuclear Deterrent December 2006 UK Trident warhead – yield fixed at time of manufacture.
Future US & UK submarine warheads – possible variable yield.
Trident Replacement
Submarine Missile Warhead Targeting
Targeting system
Transfer of US targeting data
UKLO STRATCOM Omaha
OPLAN 8044 information
STRATCOM Omaha SACEUR Mons Belgium NOTC MoD London sanitised SWS IPT Bath / Corsham
Corsham
Corsham
Corsham
Site 3 Cold War bunker for PM and Queen
Corsham
DCSA HQ UK Defence Communications Hub
Corsham
Corsham Computer Centre Trident targeting
Targeting system
Magnetic Tape Cartridge Target Planning (Corsham) Target Change Message Fire Control (Submarine)
Targeting system upgrades
SLBM Retargeting System (SRS) operational in 2003 quickly, accurately & reliably retarget missiles to targets timely & reliable processing of an increased number of targets support adaptive planning US and UK systems
Targeting system upgrades
SLBM Planning & Operational Flexibility (SPOF) follow on to SRS funded 2010 - 2012 improve flexibility & responsiveness enhance accuracy and effectiveness application in UK ?
Fire Control hardware upgrades
US Mod 4 Mod 6 UK Mod 5 Mod 7 In service 2003 2010
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability [ for (int k=0; k
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability [ for (int k=0; k
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability [ for (int k=0; k
Targeting software for UK Trident
// Assess system response time suitability F1=beta1]*Obj_Time(targ_indx,sys_indx); //Assess Yield Suitabilty F2=beta[2]*Obj_Yield(yld) //Assess Probability of Kill Suitability [ for (int k=0; k
could
cripple software to restrict use
Assigned to NATO ?
NATO attack less likely independent attack less likely bilateral attack most likely
Closing Points
Dependence on US support Early stage of long-term plan Need greater transparency Endangered species