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2009 SPARC SSG meeting in Kyoto
SOLARIS activity report
K. Kodera and K. Matthes
i) CCMval 2: Solar response
ii) Next Solaris meeting
Solar Max –Min heating rate change (Off line)
solar irradiance
solar induced ozone
Total change
solar regression coefficients
0.1
Temperature (C)
Ozone (%)
1
Obs
Obs
10
100
0
0.5
1
0
5
0.1
1
10
100
0
0.5
1
0
5
Ozone (%)
Ozone at 3hPa
Temp. (C)
Temperature at 1 hPa
Figure 8.5.4: Amplitude of the solar cycle in the upper stratosphere over latitude for
ozone at 3 hPa (top) and temperature at 1 hPa (bottom).
Where comes from the problems
Problems of the observational data
Long data: inhomogeneous
Short data: instable
Problems of the models
Planetary waves propagate too easily toward the equator.
Problems of the method of analysis (multiple regression)
Correlation between the forcings (SST, QBO contains decadal variation)
Problems of the winter stratosphere (highly non-linear)
Response depends on the basic state
interaction between the forcings
Solar x QBO, Solar x Trend
ENSO x Trend, QBO x Trend
Linear
Forcing a
Response 1
Forcing b
Response 2
Nonlinear
Response 1
Forcing a
Response 2
Forcing b
Correlation: geopotential height with Nino 3.4 (DJF)
1950-1978
1979-2007
Problems of the models
Problems of the method of analysis (multiple regression)
Correlation between the forcings (SST, QBO contains decadal variation)
Proposed solar experiment
-> No correlation among the forcings
Next Solaris meeting
Mid-March (10-12 March?) 2010
GFZ German Research Centre
for Geosciences
Potsdam, Germany
local organizer: Katja Mattes
solar regression coefficients
Temperature
Ozone
1
1
10
10
Figure 8.4.2: Annual mean tropical (25°S-25°N) solar regression coefficients for (a)temperature in Kelvin
per 100 units of the F10.7cm radio flux, and (b) ozone in %/100 F10.7cm units from CCMVal-2 CCMs
(1960-2004) and observations (NIWA ozone (1979-2004), Randel and Wu ozone (1979-2005), RICH
radiosonde data (1960-2004), SSU data (1979-2005), and ERA40 (1979-2001)) from 100 to 0.1 hPa. Top:
CCMs without imposed solar cycle (non-sc group), bottom: CCMs with imposed solar cycle (sc group).