Transcript What is Science?

What is Science?
 How would you define “Science”?
 Science is knowledge. Knowledge attained through
study or practice.
 Science refers to a system of acquiring knowledge. This
system uses observation and experimentation to
describe and explain natural phenomena. The term
science also refers to the organized body of knowledge
people have gained using that system.
Inquiry
 Scientific Inquiry – To ask a
question or series of questions
 Basic skills of scientific
inquiry
 Observing, Collecting,
Organizing, and Measuring
 Uses of Scientific Inquiry
 Explain, Connect, Predict,
and Hypothesize
Public vs. Private
 Researchers in academic and
governmental settings seek to broaden
human understanding of the world
around us.
 Work is shared among all through
publication.
 Researchers in corporations seek
improvements in products and processes
for profit.
 Work is typically proprietary and not
shared.
Scientific Method
 This describes a generalized approach to science.
However, not all scientific discovery necessarily follows
this overview!
 The scientific method begins with a question.
 Ex) What causes (bee) Colony Collapse Disorder?
 Ex) Do people consuming large quantities of
antioxidants have lower rates of cancer?
Scientific Method
 Step two begins with the design of experiments based
on the question.
 Observation of basic phenomena
 Data collected and analyzed
 Repeatability of experiment
 Manipulation of variables
Scientific Method
 Goal of experiments
 To find a pattern
 Propose a hypothesis – a tentative explanation of some
natural phenomena
 The hypothesis is then further tested with more
experiments.
 At this point, a scientist in the public sector might
choose to publish his or her work in a Journal.
Scientific Method
 A Journal is usually a highly
specialized publication
available to other scientists in a
particular discipline of science.
 Each article is peer-reviewed
and contains several important
pieces.
 Methods / Materials
 Results
 Conclusions
What is “Peer” Review?
Scientific Method
 A key component of science
is skepticism.
 Other scientists will try
your experiment in hopes
of disproving your
hypothesis.
 These scientists may
submit a letter to the same
journal refuting (or
supporting) your results.
Scientific Method
 When a hypothesis has been thoroughly tested and
continues to work, then it becomes a theory.
 A theory is a thoroughly tested explanation of
some natural phenomena.
 A theory is still tested by performing more
experiments.
 A theory can later be proven to be false!
True or False?
 Science is done by consensus – that is groups of
scientists gather to “vote” on what the explanation is
for basic phenomena.
 Science provides the “truth” in observations of natural
phenomena.
 Scientific explanations are only accepted after all
attempts at falsification are exhausted.
How to be a Scientist
 Be skeptical – question EVERYTHING
 Observations and data MUST always agree with the
explanation
 Results MUST be repeatable
Example: Global Warming
Key Messages of UN IPCC Report:
 Human activities have led to large increases in heat-trapping gases
(“greenhouse gases”) over the past century.
 Global average temperature and sea level have increased, and
precipitation patterns have changed.
 The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to humaninduced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human “fingerprints” also
have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system,
including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric
moisture, and Arctic sea ice.
Greenhouse Gases
 The term is a misnomer!
 At night, some gas
molecules absorb
outgoing radiation.
 This prevents our
temperatures from falling
drastically at night.
 Nighttime temperatures
on Mars plummet over
100oC!
Climate Quiz
 What gas molecule accounts for over 90% of the
“greenhouse” effect?
 A) CO2
 B) CH4
 C) O2
 D) H2O
 E) N2
NOAA Climate Data Center
•Public Data?
•Raw or altered?
•Stations used?
•Does it match
anecdotal evidence?
Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick
•Are tree ring data a proxy
for temperatures?
•Why does proxy data stop
in 1950?
•Steve McIntyre,
•www.climateaudit.org
Two Views
 “Their*” theory – our planet’s climate system is highly
sensitive to carbon dioxide concentrations.
 Fact: Every computer Global Climate Model (GCM)
treats carbon dioxide as an exponential factor when
projecting temperatures into the future.
 *Referred to as “warmists” by skeptics or “The Team” –
see RealClimate.org for those who believe in this
theory.
 Skeptical blog: wattsupwiththat.com
Climate Memes
 Meme – an idea, behavior, or style repeated
throughout a culture.
 “Warming is unprecedented.”
 Answer: It was actually warmer many times in past on
our planet.
 “97% of all climate scientists agree that global
warming is attributed to man.”
 Answer: Survey sent only to those who published a paper
with the words ‘global warming’ in it.
Data Quality?
 Temperature records
can be spoiled by
poorly located
instruments.
 Many “official”
stations located at
busy airports.
 Selective removal of
“cooler” stations.
UHI = Urban Heat Island
Fact: Logarithmic Effect
 Absorbance of radiation by any molecule is
logarithmic – each additional molecule absorbs a
fractionally smaller and smaller amount of energy.
 Climate models treat CO2 as an exponential factor
(like an accelerant in a fire).
Log Function Graph
Climate Models
Positive Benefits
 Plants are literally starving for CO2.
 Some estimates place a 15% increase in food supply from
added CO2.
 Warmer periods in history have been times of human
success whereas colder periods have been times of human
suffering.
 Life expectancy ca. 1900 about 40 y.o., ca. 2000 about 80
y.o.
 Energy usage and medical advances are responsible for
improving life expectancy.
Energy and Poverty
 Over 700 million people in
Africa lack access to
electricity.
 Diseases like malaria,
cholera, AIDS, etc. kill
millions each year.
 Life expectancy is less than
45 y.o. in 11 countries of
Africa.
 Paul Driessen, “EcoImperialism”
Alternative Theory
 So if not CO2, then what does control global
temperatures?
 Many possible factors like:
 The Sun and solar cycles
 Ocean cycles – PDO, AMO and others
 Changes in the Earth’s orbit (precession, obliquity,
eccentricity) are known to have produced the ice ages
(Milankovitch cycles)
Solar Cycles
Sunspot History
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Climategate
 Many climate researchers have refused or stone-walled
efforts over the years from FOI requests.
 In November, 2009, and again in November, 2011 (aka
Climategate 2.0) a large collection of files and emails were
leaked from East Anglia University’s (UK) Climate
Research Unit (CRU).
 “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the
real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981
onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.” Phil Jones, Head of the CRU at East Anglia (emphasis
added by me).
Climategate 2.0
 Emails revealed that Researchers:
 Cherry-picked data to support their case.
 Regularly peer-reviewed each others work.
 Bullied Journal editors to not accept skeptic papers.
 Travelled often to international conferences to “present”
their case.
 Refused to share data and methods with skeptics.
 Conspired to destroy data and records to avoid FOI
requests.
 Actions clearly that were criminal!
Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT
 “The notion of a static, unchanging climate is
foreign to the history of the earth or any other
planet with a fluid envelope. The fact that the
developed world went into hysterics over changes
in global mean temperature anomaly of a few
tenths of a degree will astound future generations.
Such hysteria simply represents the scientific
illiteracy of much of the public, the susceptibility of
the public to the substitution of repetition for
truth, and the exploitation of these weaknesses by
politicians, environmental promoters, and, after 20
years of media drum beating, many others as well.”
 Complete article
Alfred P. Sloan
Professor of
Meteorology,
Massachusetts
Institute of
Technology
I was an alarmist…
 MSNBC April 23, 2012: 'Gaia' scientist James Lovelock
reverses himself: I was 'alarmist' about climate change & so
was Gore! “The problem is we don't know what the climate
is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago.”
 “The climate is doing its usual tricks. There's nothing much
really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway
toward a frying world now,” he said. “The world has not
warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is
a reasonable time... it (the temperature) has stayed almost
constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon
dioxide is rising, no question about that…”