Transcript Slide 1

[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Wireless Technology – India
Dr. K. T. V. Reddy
Principal
PVPP college of Engineering, Sion
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
Web:www.pvppcoe.ac.in
Governing Council Member, IETE, India
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Background
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Relationship between telephony and economic
development is well recognized
Teledensity has been a good indicator of economy
Establishing quantitative relationship has not been
easy
From plain telephony to a converged technology
Telephone, computer, broadband, multimedia
All Packet communication
Cable TV
Digital, virtual and mobile
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Developing Countries
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Mixed picture
Some highly motivated relatively smaller
countries have performed better than much
larger (richer?) countries
Literacy, social and cultural factors
Interest in ICT
Dealing with diverse languages and scripts
Poor basic infrastructure
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Technology Advances
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Exceptionally favorable situation
Moving to All Packet Networks ( ~ 4G)
Mobile and Wireless Techs
Very large bandwidths
Rapid fall in costs
Technology as commodity
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Technology, some concerns
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Not quite user friendly yet
Multiplicity of mutually incompatible
standard and protocols
High costs
Handling local languages and scripts
Reliability and ruggedness
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
India
Large Populations, vast area
 Over 60% still in rural areas, significant
illiteracy
More than 500,000 villages many still to be
fully ‘served’
 Large internal ‘digital divide’, disparities in
living standards, lifestyle, etc.
 ICT, a key for rapid development (self
driven)
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
India, Some Positive Factors
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Large, younger, tech savvy population, not burdened by
history!
Exceptional popularity of the cell phone
Democracy,... may be chaotic!
Extensive use of English
Appearance of Roman script for Indian languages
Satellite TV, Cable and Multimedia
Mass market, needs new business model
July 16, 2015
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The Indian Scenario
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Very slow growth till the 80s
Faster and faster growth from 90s
Impact of Privatization, the Internet, the cellphone and
affordability
Cellphone as a multiservice device
India has among the world's cheapest services
8+ million cellphones added every month!
PCs and Broadband Internet
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Digital Technology Starts a Revolution
in India in the 80s
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Digital (PCM) switching and transmission
First digital switch in a village (Kittur) in 1986
IBM PC, CMOS Technology, HLL, etc.
Demonopolization
Privatization on a limited scale
Nationwide network of payphones
Low cost reliable international access from the remotest
area
Ancillary industry
Enlightened leadership
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Present Situation
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Currently 500 Million lines, 1000+ million
lines in 2015
More than 80 million lines added every
month
Broadband DSL, slower growth still
Widespread usage of Internet, large
number of ISPs, etc.
3G yet to pickup
Attention to rural areas
July 16, 2015
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
The Impact in the80s
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The first digital rural exchange in 1986 -The RAX
Better facilities than most urban areas
International dialing, etc.
Economic impact study by National Institute of Bank
Management Pune
There was significant increase in bank deposits
Helped farmer in his business
Awareness of new technology
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Reasons for the success of RAX
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Very innovative approach
Very inexpensive
Rugged
Low power, can handle irregular power
supply
Simple to use, maintain and manufacture
Developed with village at the focus
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90s and the rise of the Internet
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Mostly data networks
Internet usage in academics and research
Businesses, government, education...
‘Narrow’ band
Relatively expensive bandwidth
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The Convergence
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Cheaper bandwidths
DSL based broadband to homes
All services, voice, data, video on a common data
pipe (IP)
Cable TV for broadband delivery
Digital Cinema
Integration of all services
Services with 100Mbps+
Wireless emerges as a key technology, WiFi, WiMax, etc.
Cellphone as a very low cost transaction device
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Benefits
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Digital divide still wide open
Benefits have not yet reached the village
Technology not yet affordable and
manageable in rural areas
Expensive and not simple to use
Lot remains to be done in application
development
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
The Very Positive Side!
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Key role in promoting India's IT industry
Helped expansion of exports especially IT business
Highly affordable broadband service
Broadband IP (2Mbps) replacing the std telephone line
Strong support for smaller businesses, SOHO, etc.
Many new value added services
New opportunities for innovation based on intelligent
integration of diverse technologies
Technology supporting individual freedom and
democratic processes
The chaotic, young India simply loves it!
A self-driven process for development
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Taking ICT to the Village
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Several interesting initiatives coordinated by
Swaminathan Foundation
A knowledge centre in every village
Many solutions driven by equipment suppliers, may not
fully match the needs
The problem is not commercially attractive yet!
Good potential but no significant impact yet
Some problems with technology and affordability
The application and the technology yet to get together
fully
The user may not be very comfortable yet
More field work, pilot trials and innovation required
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SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
An Observation
A couple of months back, the securities firm CLSA came out with detailed
analysis of the Indian IT industry which revealed that:
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20-25% of India’s GDP expansion over the next 3-4 years will come
from IT;
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India’s IT exports will cross India’s oil imports from 2007/08
onwards assuming that oil prices are at around $65 a barrel;
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The IT industry –directly and indirectly—will pick up a third of the
addition to the urban labour force over the next three-four years.
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Over the next three-four years, the IT industry will pick up around
80-85% of India’s employable engineers.
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One in seven income tax payers in the country will be a IT
professional by 2010 up from the current one in ten.
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[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Regulatory Framework provides level playing field for all
operators
The Department of telecommunications (Government of India) is the main governing
body for the industry.
Telephone Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) assists the Government of India
(GoI) to take timely decisions and introduce new technologies in the country.
Indian Telecom Industry Framework
Indian Government Bodies
Independent Bodies
They undertake various research activities and monitor the
quality of service provided in the Indian telecom industry.
They also provide various recommendations to improve the
status of telecom operations in India.
They formulate various policies and pass laws to regulate the
telecom industry in India.
Wireless Planning and
Coordination (WPC)
Handles spectrum allocation and
management
Department of
Telecommunications
DoT – Licensee and frequency
management for telecom
Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India (TRAI)
Telecom Disputes Settlement
and Appellate Tribunal
(TDSAT)
Exclusive policy making body of DoT
Telecom Commission
Group on Telecom and IT
(GoT-IT)
Handles ad hoc issues of the telecom
industry
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Independent regulatory body
Telecom disputes settlement body
Department of Telecommunication (DoT) is the main body formulating laws and
various regulations for the Indian telecom industry.
Independent
regulator, TRAI,
was established
Private players
were allowed in
Value Added
Services
INDIA
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Various important regulations and laws have been passed
in the Indian telecom industry post-liberalisation era
BSNL was
established by
DoT
ILD services was
opened to
competition
Go-ahead to
the CDMA
technology
1999
1994
1992
1997
National Telecom
Policy (NTP) was
formulated
Calling Party Pays
(CPP) was
implemented
2002
2000
NTP-99 led to
migration from highcost fixed license fee
to low-cost revenue
sharing regime
2003
Internet
telephony
initiated
Reduction of
licence fees
Unified Access
Licensing
(UASL) regime
was introduced
Reference
Interconnect
order was
issued
ILD – International Long Distance
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Intra-circle merger
guidelines were
established
Attempted to
boost Rural
telephony
Number portability
was proposed
(pending)
2005
2007
2004
2006
Broadband
policy 2004 was
formulated—
targeting 20
million
subscribers by
2010
Decision on 3G
services (awaited)
FDI limit was
increased from 49
to 74 percent
Unified Access Service License Regime (UASL)
Unified licensing marked the end of the license regime in the Indian telecom industry. It helped in aligning convergent technologies and
services. The establishment of the Unified Access Licensing Regime (2003) eliminated the need for different licenses for different
services. Players are now allowed to offer both mobile and fixed-line services under a single license after paying an additional entry fee.
This does not take into account national and international long-distance services and Internet access services.
16
150
Lowering of ADC
12
Telecom Tariff
Order
8
NTP 99
120
UASL,
CPP
90
60
WLL
4
30
0
Number of Subscribers
(millions)
PVPP
of Engineering,Sion
[email protected], Principal,
Cellular Tariff
(INR perCollege
minute)
Important regulations and their impact on the Indian
telecom industry
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Cellular Tariff
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total Cellular Subscribers
Access Deficit Charges (ADC)
ADC makes it mandatory for a service provider at the caller’s end
to share a percent of the revenue earned with the service provider
at the receiver’s end in long-distance telephony. This subsidises the
infrastructure costs of the service provider enabling access at
receiver’s end, especially because rental for fixed-line services is
low. Revision in the ADC regime is expected to be followed by
further tariff reduction in telecom services.
Universal Service Obligation (USO)
The USO policy was laid along with NTP ’99 to widen the reach of telephony services in rural India. All telecom operators are bound to
contribute 5 percent of their revenues to this fund. This system was put in place to bridge the wide gap between urban and rural teledensity,
bringing it down from the current 31 percent. Initially, only basic service providers were under the purview of USO. Later, its scope was
expanded to include mobile services also. Although it increases the cost burden for the telecom companies, USO helps in building the
telecommunication infrastructure in the rural areas.
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Major trends in the telecom sector is increasing M&A activity, de-regulation of telecom policies and growing interest of
international investors.
Recent Deals in Telecom Sector
Vodafone purchased stake in Hutch
from Hong Kong's Hutchison Telecom
International for USD 11.08 billion.
The Indian telecom industry has a 74 percent FDI limit in the telecom
services segment.
The GoI has permitted 100 percent FDI in manufacturing of telecom
equipment in India.
FDI in Telecom Sector
Reliance Communications Limited has sold a five percent
equity share capital of its subsidiary Reliance Telecom
Infrastructure Limited to international investors across the US,
Europe and Asia. The deal was worth USD 337.5 million.
Telekom Malaysia acquired a 49
percent stake in Spice Communications
for USD 179 million.
Maxis Communications acquired a 74
percent stake in Aircel for USD 1.08
billion.
Ericsson to design, plan, deploy and
manage Bharti Airtel network and
facilitate their expansion in the rural
areas, under a USD 2 billion contract.
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680
700
FDI (USD million)
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
FDI and other M&A activities increasing in number
521
500
300
116
129
2003–04
2004–05
100
2005–06
2006–07
The Indian telecom industry has always attracted foreign investors. In
fact, the cumulative FDI inflow, during the August 1991 to March 2007
period, in the telecommunication sector amounted to USD 3,892
million. It is the third largest sector to attract FDI in India in the postliberalisation era.
FDI calculation takes into account radio paging, cellular mobile and
basic telephone services in the telecommunication sector.
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Major Players in different segments of Indian telecom
industry
Basic Services Operators
MOBILE SERVICES
GSM Services Operators
BSNL
Airtel
MTNL
Vodafone
Reliance
Idea
TTSL
Reliance
BSNL
Internet Services Operators
BSNL
CDMA Services Operators
MTNL
Reliance
Reliance
TTSL
TTSL
BSNL
Airtel
MTNL – Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd.
TTSL – Tata Teleservices Ltd.
BSNL – Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd.
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Emerging technologies – 3G and WiMax to assist in penetration of telecom
services in India
The Indian government plans to auction the spectrum for 3G services by inviting bids from domestic as
well as foreign players, and creating a competitive environment that offers better services to
consumers. Therefore, the 3G spectrum is among the major investment opportunities and growth
drivers of the telecom industry.
 The immense potential for 3G is reflected by the 30–40 percent annual growth in Value-Added
Services.
 Cell phone manufacturers are striving to develop USD 100 priced 3G handsets for the Indian market.
 India expects to replicate its 2G growth in 3G services.
WiMAX has been one of the most significant developments in wireless communication in the recent past. Since
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this mode of communication provides network access in inaccessible locations at a speed of more than 4 Mbps, it
is expected to be a major factor in driving telecom services in India, especially wireless services. Thus, it will
lead to the increased use of telecom services, Internet, value-added services and enterprise services. WiMAX is
expected to accelerate economic growth and assist in providing better education, healthcare and entertainment
services.
It is estimated that India will have 13 million WiMAX subscribers by 2012.
Aircel is the pioneer in WiMAX technology in India.
The state-owned player, BSNL, aims to connect 74,000 villages through WiMAX.
Bharti, Reliance and VSNL have acquired licenses in the 3.3GHz range to utilise the opportunities offered by this
domain.
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Huge Potential of Indian Broadband Markets
Indian Broadband Subs Penetration
S-Curve in Addressable Market
Broadband Subs Penetration
31.98%
35.00%
30.00%
Start-up
Period
22.34%23.53%
25.00%
India 0.45％
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
6.24%
3.63% 4.82%
0.04% 0.10% 0.45% 0.56%
0.00%
10％
Fastest
growth
period
90％
Saturation
Period
50％
Key Point
India 30%
Source: TRAI
S-Curve in Addressable Market: affordable population excluded
population under poverty line and below 15 years old
Broadband markets is still in its infancy stage with low penetration rate.
A big gap with other developing/developed countries anticipates a huge
potential.
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Hype Cycle for Wireless networking
Infrastructure
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For a new technology, people are
usually keen on the advantages.
Their overenthusiasm generates
the peak of inflated expectations.
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When the new technology is put
into commercial use, people find
that there is a variety of limits.
Thus the trough of disillusionment
occurs.
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The new technology enters the
stage of practical application and
enjoys stable development in line
with the commercial law.
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WiMAX 16e is entering the stage
of practical application. In the
following years, WiMAX 16e will
see broad application throughout
the world. 16e+ is available at the
end of 2010, WiMAX is about 3
years ahead of LTE in the Product
chain.
Expectations
LTE
WiMAX 16m
LTE-Advance
WiMAX is
entering the stage
of practical
application
HSPA+
EV-DO Rev. B
WiFi
HSPA
WCDMA
TD-SCDMA
M2M
WiMAX 16e+
WiMAX 16e
Cloud Computing
Peak of
Trough of
Innovation
Inflated Disillusionment
Trigger
Expectations
Time
Years to Mainstream Adoption:
less than 2
years
2 to 5
years
5 to 10
times
Slope of
Enlightenment
more than 10
years
Plateau of
Productivity
obsolete before
plateau
Source：Gartner
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Indian Telecom Statistics
Indian Telecom
Total telephone subscriber base
Over all Tele-density
Fixed-line user base
Wireless user base
(GSM+CDMA+WLL(F))
GSM Subscribers
CDMA Subscribers
Monthly additions
(Wireline +
Wireless)
Monthly additions (Wireline)
Monthly additions (Wireless)
Broadband subscribers
July 16, 2015
Statistics Oct 09
525.65
44.87%
37.25
488.4
355.25
133.15
16.62
-0.02
16.67
7.4
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Existing Operators
Service Providers
Technology
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL)
GSM, CDMA & Fixed Line
Bharti Airtel Limited (Airtel)
GSM & Fixed Line
Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM)
GSM, CDMA & Fixed Line
Vodafone Essar Limited (Vodafone-Essar)
GSM
Idea Cellular Limited (Idea)
GSM
Tata Teleservices Limited (TTSL)
GSM, CDMA & Fixed Line
Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Limited (TTML)
CDMA & Fixed Line
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
GSM, CDMA & Fixed Line
Aircel Cellular Limited (Aircel)
GSM
Reliance Telecom
GSM
Loop Mobile Limited (Loop mobile)
GSM
HFCL Infotel Limited (HFCL)
CDMA & Fixed Line
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Thanks!
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Sources
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DOT
TRAI
COAI & AUSPI
Ernest & Young
IMRB
BDA
Telecom India Daily (internal research)
……..open internet
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July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Conclusion
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India has benefited immensely from ICT
It has given an opportunity of rapid
economic and social development
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012
[email protected], Principal, PVPP College of Engineering,Sion
Thank You !
July 16, 2015
SSS, ACT2012