Transcript EC GHG HDV Lot 1 Final Results

Strategy for developing a CO2
reduction policy in Europe
Nikolas Hill, Knowledge Leader ‐ Transport
Technology and Fuels, AEA
8th Diesel Emissions Conference
& AdBlue Forum Europe 2012,
30 May – 1 June 2012, Hilton Düsseldorf
[email protected]
+44 (0)870 190 6490
Outline
1) The current situation in Europe
Reduction and testing of GHG emissions from Heavy Duty
Vehicles (funded by EC DG Climate Action):
2) LOT 1: assess the amount and reduction potential of GHG
emissions from HDVs
– Task 1: Vehicle Market and Fleet
– Task 2: Fuel Use and CO2 emissions
– Task 3: Technology
– Task 4: Policy Assessment
3) LOT 2: propose a method to quantify such emissions for
whole vehicles as well as for vehicle components
4) Next steps: “LOT 3” and developing a CO2 reduction policy
2
Reducing HDV fuel consumption and CO2
emissions in the EU policy context
+ Political commitment to reduce emissions by
80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050
+ Roadmap for low carbon economy:
– Overall -80% reduction in emissions by 2050
– Transport sector foreseen to reduce emissions
between -54 and -67% by 2050
+ White Paper on Transport targets -60% reduction
in emissions by 2050 (Base 1990); 20% by 2030
(Base 2008)
 HDV 40% improvement in energy efficiency by 2050
3
Historical context for European truck fuel efficiency
+ In the last couple of decades improvements in truck fuel economy appear to
have reduced relative to previous historical trends…
Source: Presentation by Christophe Pavret de La Rochefordière, EC DG Climate Action, Preparing a strategy for reducing
HDV fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, ICCT Workshop, 10 November 2011, Brussels
4
Regulatory situation in Europe
+ Road transport CO2 emissions not included in EU
Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)
+ Existing regulations setting CO2 targets for:
– Cars (Reg. 443/2009), and
– Vans (Reg. 510/2011)
+ Currently no legislation setting targets for HDV CO2
emissions
+ Current test cycle procedures are on engine basis (e.g.
for regulation air pollutant emissions), not whole vehicle
+ In addition a number of existing & proposed EU
legislation and programmes are already expected to
contribute lowering HDV CO2 emissions
5
Reduction and testing of GHG emissions from
Heavy Duty Vehicles: Outline and Objectives
Project work split into two lots. The objectives of the two lots were to:
 Lot 1 (Lead – AEA): assess the amount and reduction potential of
GHG emissions from HDVs, and to
 Lot 2 (Lead – TU Graz): propose a method to quantify such
emissions for whole vehicles as well as for vehicle components.
Lot 1: Strategy Support Objective
The service contract is to provide the Commission's services with
technical assistance in the area of reducing GHG emissions from
HDVs (passengers and freight).
+ Task 1: Vehicle Market and Fleet
+ Task 2: Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions
+ Task 3: Technology
+ Task 4: Policy Assessment
6
LOT1: The European Vehicle Market and Fleet

EU market is dominated by 7 major European HDV manufacturers
• 93% EU registrations and ~40% total worldwide production
• ~75% bus and coach market served by these manufacturers

Trailer/bodybuilders: 1000s organisations; 7 orgs = ~60% market

HDV market highly complicated compared to LDVs
• Final configuration (and performance) results from a chain of organisations
• Final vehicle specification often bespoke/unique to fit particular application/cycle, with a
wide variety of different auxiliary equipment utilised
• Road tractor and semi-trailer pulled often owned by different organisations

Data characterising the # and distribution of HDV operators across EU
is not collected in any standard format, and is very difficult to locate
• 60% of the freight tonne km in the EU are associated with longer distance trips
• Most freight operators smaller in size, with 85% having fewer than 10 vehicles
• HoR operations >85% tonne km, travel longer distances vs Own Account. HoR operations
also purchase and own the majority of road tractors (# increasing)
• Total fleet and average fleet size of bus companies > coaches

Fuel represents about 30% of operating costs
7
LOT1: New vehicle market size and structure (EU27) Registrations of heavy duty vehicles by gross vehicle weight

Increase in % larger/heavier trucks since 1995; increase in % <16t buses:
2008
Road
Tractors
38.5%
2008
Rigid
Trucks
<16t
27.7%
Rigid
Trucks
>16t
33.8%
Buseses
and
Coaches
<16t
40.3%
Buses
and
Coaches
>16t
59.7%
Source: Based on datasets from ACEA (2010) and Eurostat (2010)
Notes:
AEA have estimated the split of registrations by combining ACEA/Eurostat data
8
LOT1: New vehicle market size and structure (EU27) Registrations of trucks by mission profile

Estimation of split by broad mission profile using data from ACEA

Other datasets on body types also utilised (e.g. refrigerated 7-10% of total)
Rigid Trucks
Construction
15.0%
Service
/Delivery
(3.5-7.5t)
29.4%
Articulated Trucks
Construction
14.9%
Regional
Delivery
/Collection
30.2%
Long Haul
19.6%
Regional
Delivery
/Collection
14.7%
Urban
Delivery
/Collection
10.6%
Municipal
Utility
10.7%
Long Haul
54.9%
Source:
AEA estimates based on dataset provided by ACEA (2010)
Notes:
Average for sales between 2000 and 2009
9
LOT1: Technology Assessment
 Technologies in the drivetrain and vehicle (body/trailer)
categories can have a large impact on fuel consumption
Hybrids, dual fuel, lightweighting, automatic tyre pressure
monitoring, automated transmission, aerodynamics, low rolling
resistance tyres, heat recovery, etc
 For conventionally fuelled vehicles on urban duty cycles
with frequent stop/start behaviour hybrid vehicles offer the
highest benefit (savings 20-30%)
 For HDVs on regional/long-haul missions, greatest
benefits from powertrain improvements and aerodynamics
Aerodynamic aids (e.g. bodies/trailers) offer potentially great
benefits of 10% reduction (and more)
 Benefits of technologies are not always cumulative
10
LOT1: BAU Projections on Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions
4,000
HDV Energy Consumption 2010
Constructi
on
12.5%
Service
/Delivery
(3.5-7.5t)
12.8% Urban
Delivery
3.7%Utility
5.2%
Regional
Delivery
13.9%
3,500
HDV Energy Consumption, PJ
Buses
8.7%
Coaches
6.3%
Coaches
Buses
3,000
Construction
2,500
Long Haul
2,000
Regional
Delivery
1,500
Utility
1,000
Urban
Delivery
500
Long Haul
37.1%

Service
/Delivery (3.57.5t)
0
2010
2020
2030
Results illustrate:
• Increase of fuel consumption/CO2 emissions in BAU of 15% from 2010 to 2030
• Importance of long-haul activity in total emissions due to higher activity levels
• Service/delivery and urban delivery vehicles relatively low impact vs numbers
• Buses and coaches share decreasing to 2030
11
LOT1: Scenario analysis - to reduce HDV CO2 emissions below 2010
levels by 2030, challenging technology uptake rates are required
Assessment of possible future reduction in total EU fuel consumption and
GHG emissions from HDVs
Cost Effective
Scenario:
commercially
acceptable
payback period
Direct CO2 Emissions
HDV Direct GHG Emissions, Tonnes CO2e
300,000
250,000
200,000
BAU
Cost Effective
150,000
Challenging
100,000
50,000
Challenging
Scenario:
maximum feasible
reduction
0
2010
+
+
+
+
2020
2030
Cost effective scenario reduction of 6% in 2030 compared to BAU
Challenging scenario reduction of 15% in 2030 compared to BAU
Challenging technology uptake levels needed to reduce direct CO2/ LC GHG vs 2010
Similar results found in alternative analysis carried out by TIAX funded for ICCT (2011)
LOT1: Policy Analysis

Performance requirements for vehicles and their components

Driver training, dissemination of best practises

Reduction in speed for heavy duty vehicles

Changes to weights legislation

Changes to dimensions legislation

Emissions trading

Taxation measures: fuel, road user charges, vehicle cost incentives

Complementary instruments to enhance benefits or mitigate rebound
effects, e.g.
 Potential benefits, stimulate technologies. Need a methodology to assess CO2
emissions
 CO2 reduction benefits, at least in short-term, at relatively small financial outlay
 Implication on logistics
 Rebound effects to be considered: intermodal transfer and infrastructure changes
 Positive when allowing aerodynamics appliances
 E.g. upstream (on fuel suppliers) and closed (for HDV only)
 Most attractive option but also most politically sensitive
 Labelling of vehicles or components, with
 Vehicle purchase taxes or incentives
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LOT1: Summary and Final Conclusions

HDV market is complex: significant diversity in final vehicle specification, use.
European manufacturers dominate EU market, are significant players globally

Vast majority road freight associated with longer distance trips transported
primarily by hire or reward operators with relatively small fleet sizes

HDVs are load carrying vehicles with considerable range in size/application,
so any developed standards should reflect this  further work in LOT 2

Results of the technology development /uptake modelling analysis show:
• In the BAU Scenario, energy consumption / GHG emissions rise 15% by 2030
• Analysis shows only by challenging technology uptake levels can the continual
increase in GHG emissions be reduced below 2010 levels by 2030

High level policy assessment following the EC Impact Assessment Guidelines
of identified instruments applicable to the EU.
Summary assessment of shortlisted policies; prioritisation not possible as costeffectiveness/GHG reduction potential depends on detail of the instrument (outside scope)

The project scope did not include modelling of a range of important options
that may offer significant opportunities for further FC/GHG reductions
Improved auxiliaries and fuels, regulations on vehicle dimensions/weight, impacts of speed
14
controls or reductions, road infrastructure measures, operational measures, ITS…
LOT2: Measurement methodology for CO2
emissions and fuel consumption of HDV
gCO2 per km,
t-km or m3-km
 The approaches explored by the project were:
• Model simulation
• Measurement on chassis dynamometer
• Measurement with PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement
Systems)
 Methodology considers: engine, driving resistances of
whole vehicle, gearbox, most relevant auxiliaries
 Preferred option: model simulation with post-verification
of model parameters via measurement
15
LOT2: Proposed test procedure for HDVs

A
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LOT2: Vehicle Segmentation
 In total 10 HDV CO2 /fuel
consumption test cycles:


Mission
Cycle Acronym
Heavy Trucks
Long Haul
LH
Total HDV classes:
Regional Delivery
RD
• 18 truck classes
Urban Delivery
UD
Municipal Utility
MU
• 6 bus and coach classes
Construction
CS
Bodies and trailers
Heavy Passenger Vehicles
(influence aerodynamic
Heavy Urban
HU
Urban
UR
drag), either:
SU
• Standard bodies and trailers Suburban
Interurban
IU
defined, with Δ(Cd*A)
CO
measured for alternatives, or Coach
All HDV
• “Reference body” selected by
Common Short Test Cycle
CST
OEM within size class, with
Δ(Cd*A) measured vs this
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“LOT3”: Future Commission Work / Next Steps (1)
 “LOT3”: New DG CLIMA Service Request Objectives:
• Develop a demonstrator simulation tool to be used for the
validation exercise, building upon the output from LOT2 project
• Further develop the proposed computer simulation method to cover
all relevant categories of HDV vehicles
• Participate in the demonstrator simulation tool validation exercise
and actively support the Commission in managing it
• Prepare and propose to the Commission the text for an HDV CO2
certification procedure based on use of the simulation test
methodology compatible with existing type approval procedures as
well as with other relevant EU legislation
• Develop and propose quality management procedures to be used
in and after the certification procedure to check whether the
procedure delivers solid results
 In consultation with stakeholders
19
“LOT3”: Future Commission Work / Next Steps (2)
 Completed HDV CO2 simulation procedure will minimise
test burden and incentivise use of efficient technologies
 Other new policy actions being considered including:
 HDV labelling
 Establishment of emission reduction objectives
 Economic instruments
 Design/ performance requirements for components
 Measures targeted at HDV purchase and use
 Ongoing Impact Assessment to be concluded end 2012
 HDV CO2 Emissions Strategy adoption by Commission is
expected in the first half of 2013 (tentative)
20
AEA
Nikolas Hill
Knowledge Leader – Transport Technology and Fuels
AEA
The Gemini Building
Fermi Avenue
Harwell, Didcot,
OX11 0QR
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)870 190 6490
E: [email protected]
W: www.aeat.co.uk
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