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Using Advances in Prevention Science to Guide Youth Development and Prevention of Problems in Communities. J. David Hawkins Ph.D. Social Development Research Group University of Washington www.sdrg.org 1 Presentation Objectives • A science-based public health approach to prevention of adolescent problem behaviours. • How can local agencies collaborate to apply the advances of prevention science to promote positive youth development and prevent problem behaviours? 2 History of Delinquency Prevention in the U.S. • Before 1980, nine experimental tests of delinquency prevention programs were conducted in the U.S. NONE found desired effects in preventing delinquency. (Berleman, 1980) 3 Early Drug Abuse Prevention Research Findings • Tested approaches were largely ineffective (Elmquist, 1995; Hanson, 1992; Moskowitz, 1989). • Drug information programs increased drug use in some studies (Tobler, 1986). 4 The Premise of Prevention Science To prevent a problem before it happens, the factors that predict the problem must be changed. 5 Advances in Prediction • Longitudinal studies have identified predictors of substance abuse- Risk factors. • AND predictors of positive outcomes including avoidance of health risk behaviorsPromotive and protective factors. 6 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Depression & Anxiety Delinquency Individual/Peer Early and Persistent Antisocial Behavior Rebelliousness Friends Who Engage in the Problem Behavior Favorable Attitudes Toward the Problem Behavior Early Initiation of the Problem Behavior Constitutional Factors Substance Abuse Risk Factors 7 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Family Management Problems Family Conflict Favorable Parental Attitudes and Involvement in the Problem Behavior Depression & Anxiety Delinquency Substance Abuse Family History of the Problem Behavior Risk Factors Family 8 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Teen Pregnancy School Drop-Out Violence Lack of Commitment to School Depression & Anxiety Delinquency Substance Abuse Academic Failure Beginning in Late Elementary School Risk Factors School 9 Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Depression & Anxiety Violence School DropOut Teen Pregnancy Delinquency Substance Abuse Risk Factors Community Availability of Drugs Availability of Firearms Community Laws and Norms Favorable Toward Drug Use, Firearms, and Crime Media Portrayals of Violence Transitions and Mobility Low Neighborhood Attachment and Community Disorganization Extreme Economic Deprivation 10 Promotive and Protective Factors: • Individual Characteristics • High Intelligence • Resilient Temperament • Competencies and Skills • In each social domain (family, school, peer group and neighborhood) • Prosocial Opportunities • Reinforcement for Prosocial Involvement • Bonding or Connectedness • Clear and Healthy Standards for Behavior 11 Prevalence of Illicit Drug Use (Past 30 Days) By Exposure to Risk and Protective Factors Six State Student Survey of 6th - 12th Graders, Public School Students 100% 90% 80% Number of Protective Factors Prevalence 70% 60% 0 to 1 50% 2 to 3 40% 4 to 5 6 to 8 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 1 2 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 8 Number of Risk Factors 9 or More 12 Prevalence of “Attacked to Hurt” By Risk and Protection Levels 60% Prevalence 50% 40% 30% 20% Protection, Level 0 Protection, Level 1 Protection, Level 2 Protection, Level 3 Protection, Level 4 10% 0% Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level 13 0 1 2 3 4 Prevalence of Academic Success By Number of Risk and Protective Factors Six State Student Survey of 6th-12th Graders, Public School Students 100% 90% Numbe r of Prote c tive Fa c tors 80% Prevalence 70% 0 2 4 6 8 60% 50% 40% to to to to to 1 3 5 7 9 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 1 2 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 7 Numbe r of R isk Fa c tors 8 to 9 10+ 14 What Is Known About Risk and Protection Risk & protective factors are found in communities, families, schools, peer groups and individuals. The same risk & protective factors predict substance abuse, violence, and other health and behavior problems of youth. Risk & protective factors show much consistency in effects across cultures, races and genders in samples from the US, Australia and the Netherlands. The more risk factors present, the greater likelihood of substance abuse, violence, and other behavior problems and the less likelihood of positive outcomes. Protective factors reduce effects of exposure to risk -the greater the level of protection, the less likelihood of behavior problems. 15 Research Guiding Practice Malleable risk and protective factors identified through longitudinal studies should be targeted by preventive interventions. 16 Advances in Prevention Over the past 25 years, controlled trials have identified both ineffective and effective prevention policies and programs. 17 Ineffective Strategies National Institute of Justice o Didactic programs targeted on arousing fear (e.g. Scared Straight). o D.A.R.E. o Peer counseling programs. o Segregating problem students into separate groups. o After school activities with limited supervision and absence of more potent programming. o Summer jobs programs for at-risk youth. 18 National Institute of Justice, 1998 Effective Programs and Policies Have Been Identified in a Wide Range of Areas 1. Prenatal & Infancy Programs 2. Early Childhood Education 3. Parent Training 4. After-school Recreation 5. Mentoring with Contingent Reinforcement 6. Youth Employment with Education 7. Organizational Change in Schools 8. Classroom Organization, Management, and Instructional Strategies 9. School Behavior Management Strategies 10. Classroom Curricula for Social Competence Promotion 11. Community & School Policies 12. Community Mobilization 19 (Hawkins & Catalano, 2004) Life Skills Training Description: Curriculum for social competence promotion and drug abuse prevention Target: Students ages 11 to 14. Contact: Gilbert Botvin, Ph.D., Director Institute for Prevention Research Cornell University Medical College 411 East 69th Street, KB-201 New York, NY, 10021 212-746-1270 20 Life Skills Training Major Components • Drug Resistance Skills and Norms • Self-Management Skills • General Social Skills 21 Middle School Program • • • 15 Class Periods (6th or 7th Grade) 10 Class Periods (7th or 8th Grade) 5 Class Periods (8th or 9th Grade) Life Skills Training Evidence of Effect • Reduces tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use 50-75%. • Effects maintained through grade 12. • Cuts polydrug use up to 66%. • Reduces pack-a-day smoking by 25%. • Decreases use of inhalants, narcotics, and hallucinogens 25% to 55%. 23 Toward No Drug Abuse (TND) Description: Self-control/Social Competency Instruction, Drug Abuse Prevention Target: All High School Youth (age 14-18) in Regular and Alternative High Schools Contact: Steve Sussman, Ph.D. IPR-USC 1540 Alexander Street, CHP 209 Los Angeles, CA 90033 24 Program Delivery • 12 classroom-based lessons Approximately 40-50 minutes each • Implemented over a 4-week period (3-4 days per week) Option: twice a week for 6 weeks, if all lessons are taught. 25 Drug Use and Violence-Related Effects across the first 3 TND Evaluation Studies: Compares Reduction of Program Group(s) Relative to Control Group(s) Study 1 (AHS) Study 2 (RHS) Study 3 (AHS) Cigarettes NS NS 27% Alcohol 7% 12% 9% Marijuana NS NS 22% Hard Drugs 25% 25% 26% Victimization* 23% 17% 6% Weapon Carrying* 21% 19% 25% Notes: AHS=alternative high schools; RHS=regular high schools; NS=not statistically significant; drug use refers to last 30 days; violence indicators refer to last 12 months; * = among males only 26 Toward No Drug Abuse Evidence of Effect • Consistent and significant reductions in alcohol use and in hard drug use across studies through 1 year follow up. • Consistent significant reductions in victimization and weapons carrying across studies. 27 Guiding Good Choices (Preparing for the Drug Free Years) Description: Series of Five Two Hour Workshops for Parents Target: Parents of children ages 9 to 14 Contact: J. David Hawkins & Richard Catalano University of Washington Available from: Channing Bete Company www.channing-bete.com 28 Guiding Good Choices • Strengthens parents’ skills to: build family bonding, establish and reinforce clear and consistent guidelines for children’s behavior, teach children skills to resist peer influence, improve family management practices, and reduce family conflict. 29 Guiding Good Choices Evidence of Effects Significantly reduced drug use through age 18. Significantly reduced growth in delinquency through age 16. Significantly reduced growth in depression through age 18. Significantly reduced alcohol abuse among young women at age 22. 30 Benefits and Costs of Prevention and Early Intervention Programs for Youth Steve Aos, Associate Director Washington State Institute for Public Policy Phone: (360) 586-2768 E-mail: [email protected] Institute Publications: www.wa.gov/wsipp 31 Examples Summary of Benefits and Costs (2003 Dollars) B-C Dollars Per Youth (PV lifecycle) Benefits Costs Guiding Good Choices $ 7,605 $ 687 $6,918 Life Skills Training $ $ $ 717 Intensive Juv. Supervision 746 $0 29 $ 1,482 -$1,482 32 Benefit-to-Cost Ratios: Selected Programs* Program Return on $1.00 investment Life Skills Training $25.61 Guiding Good Choices $11.07 *Washington Institute for Public Policy (2004) 33 Lists of Rigorously Tested and Effective Youth Violence and Substance Abuse Prevention Approaches • Blueprints for Violence Prevention www.colorado.edu/cspv/blueprints/ • Communities That Care Prevention Strategies Guide http://preventionplatform.samhsa.gov 34 But… Prevention approaches that do not work or have not been evaluated have been more widely used than those shown to be effective. (Gottfredson & Gottfredson, 2002, Hallfors et al 2001, Ringwalt et al., 2002.) 35 Empowering Communities to Prevent Youth Substance Misuse • Youths in different neighborhoods and communities are exposed to different levels of risk and protection. 36 Distribution of Risk in a City N eighborh oo d #2 In su f fic ie nt n um b e r of st u de n ts in th is are a. No s tu d en ts in t his a re a . N eighborh oo d #1 N eighborh oo d #3 37 J ohn A. Pollard , P h.D. Dev elopm ental Res earch and Pr ogram s w Ne i gh bo La rh ws Co oo an mm dA dN un tta or i ty ch ms me Di so Fa nt r v g Pe o an rce rabl iza et iv e tio Pe n dA o D rce rug va iv e il a Us dA bi l e va i ty il a of bi l Dr it Po ug or y o f s Ha Fa m n dg Pa il y Fa re M a uns mi nta na ly lA ge Hi Pa ttit s to me re F u a nta ry nt de mi of sF lA ly An Co ttit av ti s ud ora nfl oc es i ct bl e i al Fa T B vo ow eh rab av ard ior le sD to rug An ti s Us oc e i al B Ac eh Lo ad a w em vior Co ic mm Fa itm i lu en re t to Fa Re Sch Ea oo vo be rly l rab lli o Pr u le s E o At ne ar ble ti tu ss ly m In i de Be t i s a h Fa To tio vo n o avi o wa rab r rd fD le An ru At g Us ti tu ti so Lo ci a e de w l s B Pe To eh rce wa av ior i ve rd Dr dR ug isk Us so e Fr fD ien ru gU ds 'U Re s s wa eo e Se rd fD sf ns rug or a ti o s An n ti s Se oc ek i al ing In v olv em Ov ent era ll R i sk Lo Percent At Risk Madison Middle SchoolRisk RiskProfile Profile8th 8th Grade Grade Madison Middle School 2002 2002 100% 90% Community Family School Peer-Individual 80% Survey Participation Rate 2002: 87.4% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% School 2002 District 2002 Estimated National Value 38 w Ne i gh bo La rh ws Co oo an mm dA dN un tta or i ty ch ms me Di so Fa nt r v g Pe o an rce rabl iza et iv e tio Pe n dA o D rce rug va iv e il a Us dA bi l e va i ty il a of bi l Dr it Po ug or y o f s Ha Fa m n dg Pa il y Fa re M a uns mi nta na ly lA ge Hi Pa ttit s to me re F u a nta ry nt de mi of sF lA ly An Co ttit av ti s ud ora nfl oc es i ct bl e i al Fa T B vo ow eh rab av ard ior le sD to rug An ti s Us oc e i al **A Be Lo c a ha w de vio Co mi r mm cF ai l itm ur en e t to S ch Fa Re Ea oo vo be rly l rab lli o Pr u le s E o At ne ar ble ti tu ss ly m In i de Be t i s a h Fa To tio vo n o avi o wa rab r rd fD le An ru At g Us ti tu ti so Lo ci a e de w l s B Pe To eh rce wa av ior i ve rd Dr dR ug isk Us so e Fr fD ien ru gU ds 'U Re s s wa eo e Se rd fD sf ns rug or a ti o s An n ti s Se oc ek i al ing In v olv em Ov ent era ll R i sk Lo Percent At Risk Nova High School Risk Profile10th 10th Grade Grade Nova High School Risk Profile 2002 2002 100% 90% Community Family School Peer-Individual Peer-Individual Survey Participation Rate 2002: 79.7% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% School 2002 District 2002 Estimated National Value 39 The Goal for Community Prevention To identify and address those risk factors that are most prevalent and those protective factors that are most suppressed with tested and effective policies and programs. 40 The Communities That Care Prevention System • A coalition/board of diverse community stakeholders applies the advances of prevention science to guide youth development and prevention work. • Measures community levels of protection and risk by surveying young people themselves. • Matches the community’s profile of risk and protection with tested, effective programs and policies. 41 The Communities That Care Prevention System • Ensures that new programs and policies are implemented with fidelity • Local control builds ownership to create sustainable change. • Focuses on measured outcomes : Are fewer teens using drugs? Fewer smoking? Fewer committing violent acts? 42 The Communities That Care Operating System Get Started Implement and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile 43 The Communities That Care Operating System • Community readiness assessment. • Identification of key individuals, stakeholders, and organizations. Get Started Implement and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile 44 The Communities That Care Operating System • Training key leaders and board in CTC Get Started Implement and Evaluate • Building the community coalition. Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile 45 The Communities That Care Operating System Get Started Implement and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan • Collect risk/protective factor and outcome data. •Collect information on community resources • Construct a community profile from the data. Get Organized Develop a Profile 46 w Ne igh La bo ws rh Co an mm ood dN At u ta c orm nity hm Di sF s en org a t v Pe ora an rce i z b at le Pe i ve rce d A to D ion i ve rug v d A aila Us bil va e ity ila of bil Po Dr ity or ug of Fa s H a mi Pa nd F l y ren am gu Ma ns na Pa tal A ily H ge ist ren ttit me ory ud Fa ta l nt es mi of At ly Fa titu An Co vo de rab tisoc nfl sF ict i le al av T B or o e wa ab h le rds avio to r Dr An ug tis Us oc ial e B Lo Ac eh w ad av Co e ior mm mic F itm ai l u en t to r e Sc Fa Re ho vo Ea b ol rab rly ell le iou P rob At Ea s titu rly lem nes de s Be s T Initia Fa h tio ow vo n o avio ar rab r d fD le An ru At t i gU so titu Lo cia se de w l sT Be Pe ow ha rce vio ar ive d r dR Dr ug i sk U so Fr f D se ien ru ds Re ' U g Us wa se e rds of Se Dr ns fo r ug ati An o nS s tis oc ee ial kin Inv g olv em en Ov era t ll R isk Lo Percent At Risk Madison Middle School Risk Profile 8th Grade 2002 100% 90% Community Family School Peer-Individual 80% Survey Participation Rate 2002: 87.4% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% School 2002 District 2002 Estimated National Value 47 The Communities That Care Operating System Get Started Implement and • Define outcomes. •Prioritize factors to be Evaluate targeted. • Select tested, effective interventions. • Create action plan. • Develop evaluation plan. Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile 48 Addressing Barriers with Effective Action Factor Addressed Family Management Problems Program Strategy Prenatal/Infancy Programs Early Childhood Education Developmental Period prenatal-2 3-5 Parent Training prenatal-14 Family Therapy 6-14 49 Effective Prevention for Parents of Young Adolescents • • • • • • Creating Lasting Connections Family Matters Guiding Good Choices Parents Who Care Parenting Wisely Strengthening Families 10-14 50 The Communities That Care Operating System • Form task forces. • Identify and train implementers. • Sustain collaborative relationships. • Evaluate processes and outcomes. • Adjust programming. Implement and Evaluate Get Started Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile 51 CTC Trainings 1. Key Leader Orientation 2. Community Board Training 3. Community Assessment Training 4. 5. 6. Community Resource Assessment Training Community Planning Training Community Program Implementation Training 52 Communities that Care Process and Timeline Process Assess risk, Implement and protection and evaluate resources tested prevention strategies 6-9 mos. 1 year Measurable Outcomes Increase in priority protective factors Increase in positive youth development Decrease in priority risk factors 2-5 years Reduction in problem behaviors Vision for a healthy community 5-10 years 53 54 The Community Youth Development Study (CYDS) A 24 community randomized controlled trial to test the Communities That Care system started in 2003. 55 The Community Youth Development Study Funded by: National Institute on Drug Abuse Center for Substance Abuse Prevention National Cancer Institute National Institute on Child Health and Development National Institute on Mental Health CYDS State Collaborators • Colorado Alcohol & Drug Abuse Division • Illinois Division of Community Health & Prevention • Kansas Alcohol and Drug Abuse Services • Maine Office of Substance Abuse • Oregon Office of Alcohol & Drug Abuse Programs • Utah Division of Substance Use • Washington Division of Alcohol & Substance Abuse 57 CYDS Primary Aim To test the effects of the Communities That Care system in • reducing levels of risk • increasing levels of protection • reducing health and behavior problems among adolescents using a true experimental design. 58 STUDY DESIGN Randomized Controlled Trial 2003-2008 2003 2004 1997-2002 CTCYS Randomize CTCYS CKI CRD CTCYS CTCYS CKI CRD CTCYS: Cross-sectional student survey of 6th-, 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students using the CTC Youth Survey CKI: Community Key Informant Interview CRD: Community Resource Documentation measuring effective prevention programs and policies in the community CTC Board: CTC Board Member Interview YDS: Longitudinal Youth Development Survey of students in the class of 2011 starting in 5th grade in spring 2004 CTCYS CTC Board YDS Control 2007 2008 CTCYS CKI CRD CKI CRD Intervention 98 99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 2006 Implement selected interventions Planning 5-Year Baseline 2005 CTC Board YDS CTCYS CTC Board YDS CTC Board YDS YDS CTCYS CTCYS CKI CRD YDS YDS CTC Board CKI CRD YDS YDS YDS 59 Demographics of 24 CYDS Communities Mean Minimum Maximum 14,616 1,578 40,787 89.4% 64.0% 98.2% Percent Hispanic Origin 9.6% 0.5% 64.7% Percent African-American 2.6% 0.0% 21.4% 36.5% 20.6% 65.9% Total Population Percent Caucasian Percent Eligible for Free/Reduced Lunch 60 PanelYouth Development Survey (YDS) • Annual survey of panel recruited from the Class of 2011 (5th grade in 2004) • Active, written parental consent 61 Youth Development Survey • Participants recruited in grades 5 and 6. • Final consent rate = 76.4% Sixth Grade Eligible Population Percent Consented Percent Surveyed Total Surveyed Control 3170 2621 76.2% 76.7% 75.4% 76.3% 2391 1999 Total 5791 76.4% 75.8% 4390 Experimental 62 2007 YDS • 96.2% Overall Student Participation • 11.9% (n=525) have moved out of project schools 8th Grade Eligible Population Percent Surveyed Total Surveyed Experimental 2406 95.6% 2300 Control 2001 96.9% 1940 Total 4407 96.2% 4240 63 Communities That Care Logic Model CTC Training and Technical Assistance Adoption of Science-based Prevention Framework Collaboration Regarding Prevention Issues Appropriate Choice and Implementation of Tested, Effective Prevention Programs & Adoption of Social Development Strategy as Community’s Way of Bringing Up Children Decreased Risk and Enhanced Protection Positive Youth Outcomes 64 Adoption of Science-Based Prevention Stage 0: No Awareness Stage 1: Awareness of Prevention Science Terms and Concepts Stage 2: Using Risk and Protection Focused Prevention Approach as a Planning Strategy. Stage 3: Incorporation of Community Epidemiological Data on Risk and Protection in Prevention System. Stage 4: Selection and Use of Tested and Effective Preventive Interventions to Address Prioritized Risk and Protective Factors. Stage 5: Collection and Feedback of Process and Outcome Data and Adjustment of Preventive Interventions Based on Data. 65 Note. Community Key Informant Survey (CKI). Stages of Adoption by Intervention Status (2001) 0.6 Probability 0.5 Control Communities CTC Communities 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1 2 3 Stage of Adoption 4 5 66 Stages of Adoption by Intervention Status (2004) 0.6 Probability 0.5 Control Communities CTC Communities 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1 2 3 Stage of Adoption Note. Change from 2001 to 2004, p < .05. 4 5 67 Stages of Adoption by Intervention Status (2007) 0.6 Probability 0.5 Control Communities CTC Communities 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1 2 3 Stage of Adoption Note. Change from 2004 to 2007, nonsignificant (i.e., p > .10). 4 5 68 Communities That Care Theory of Change CTC Training and Technical Assistance Adoption of Science-based Prevention Framework Collaboration Regarding Prevention Issues Appropriate Choice and Implementation of Tested, Effective Prevention Programs & Adoption of Social Development Strategy as Community’s Way of Bringing Up Children Decreased Risk and Enhanced Protection Positive Youth Outcomes 69 Program Selection CTC Community Board members selected prevention programs from a menu* of programs that: ~ Showed significant effects on risk/protective factors, and drug use, delinquency, or violence ~ In at least one high-quality research study ~ Targeted children or families in grades 5-9 ~ Provided materials and training * Communities That Care Prevention Strategies Guide 70 Programs Selected in 2004-2007 PROGRAM 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 All Stars Core 1 1 1 Life Skills Training Lion’s-Quest Skills for Adolescence Project Alert Olweus Bullying Prevention Program Program Development Evaluation Training 2 2 1 4* 3 1 2* 5* 3 1 2* 1 - Participate and Learn Skills (PALS) Big Brothers/Big Sisters Stay SMART Tutoring Valued Youth Tutoring Program 1 2 3 4 1 1 2 3 6 1 Strengthening Families 10-14 Guiding Good Choices Parents Who Care Family Matters 2 6 1 1 3 7* 1 1 1 2 1 6 1 3 8* 2 Parenting Wisely - 1 1 27 38 37 TOTAL *Program funded through local resources in one or two communities 71 Exposure in the Community Program Type 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 School Curricula 1432 3886 5165 After-school* 546 612 589 Parent Training 517 665 476 Note: Total eligible population of 6th, 7th, and 8th-grade students in 2005-06 was 10,031. *Includes PALS, BBBS, Stay SMART, and Tutoring programs 72 Fidelity Assessment Checklists • Obtained from developers (9) or created by research staff (7) • Provided similar information across all programs to measure 4 elements of fidelity • Over 6,000 checklists were completed by program implementers and coordinators ~ Minimal missing data (8.2% in 2004-05 and 2.1% in 2005-06) • Checklists were collected and reviewed by communities, then sent to SDRG 73 Adherence Rates 2004-05 and 2005-06 school years Percentage of material taught or core components achieved 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 LST AS SFA Alert BPP PDE SS Tutor VY BBBS PALS SFP GGC PWC FM 74 Communities That Care Theory of Change CTC Training and Technical Assistance Adoption of Science-based Prevention Framework Collaboration Regarding Prevention Issues Appropriate Choice and Implementation of Tested, Effective Prevention Programs & Adoption of Social Development Strategy as Community’s Way of Bringing Up Children Decreased Risk and Enhanced Protection Positive Youth Outcomes 75 Prioritized Risk Factors in CTC Communities • • • • • • • • • Family management problems Parental attitudes favorable to problem behavior Family conflict Low commitment to school Favorable attitudes toward problem behavior Friends who engage in problem behavior Academic failure Rebelliousness Laws and norms favorable toward drug and alcohol use 76 Average Level of Risk Pre-post Change in Targeted Risk Factors 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 Grade 5 Control Communities Grade 7 CTC Communities Note. Values are model-fitted levels of standardized average risk for students in the Youth Developmental Study panel sample, N = 4404. For Grade 7: γ010 = .111, SE = .043, df = 11, p < .026. 77 Communities That Care Theory of Change CTC Training and Technical Assistance Adoption of Science-based Prevention Framework Collaboration Regarding Prevention Issues Appropriate Choice and Implementation of Tested, Effective Prevention Programs & Adoption of Social Development Strategy as Community’s Way of Bringing Up Children Decreased Risk and Enhanced Protection Positive Youth Outcomes 78 Communities That Care: Evidence of Effects • Adoption of science-based prevention is higher in CTC communities than in control communities. • CTC communities and schools are adopting tested & effective programs. • The new programs are being implemented with fidelity. • Exposure to targeted risk factors is increasing less rapidly in the panel in CTC than in control communities. • By the spring of grade 8, significantly fewer panel students in CTC communities than controls have initiated smoking, smokeless tobacco use, alcohol use, and delinquent behavior. Significantly fewer report drug use, specifically current alcohol use, binge drinking, and smokeless tobacco use. Significantly lower rates of delinquent behavior. 79 The Communities That Care Prevention Operating System is available at: http://preventionplatform.samhsa.gov/ 80 81 The Future of Prevention in CTC Communities: Community Leader Support for Prevention • If you were deciding how to spend money for reducing substance abuse, what percentage would you allocate to each of the following approaches? Law Enforcement Treatment Prevention 82 Funding Allocation by Intervention Status (2001) 30.6% 31.9% 28.0% 27.4% Treatment Law Enforcement Prevention 40.9% Control Communities Treatment Law Enforcement Prevention 41.5% CTC Communities 83 Percentage Funding for Prevention by Intervention Status 50.00 Percentage Control Communities CTC Communities 45.00 40.00 35.00 2001 2004 2007 84 Percentage Funding for Prevention by Intervention Status 50.00 Percentage Control Communities CTC Communities 45.00 40.00 35.00 2001 2004 2007 85 Note. Change from 2001 to 2004 nonsignificant, p > .10. Percentage Funding for Prevention by Intervention Status 50.00 Percentage Control Communities CTC Communities 45.00 40.00 35.00 2001 2004 2007 86 Note. Change from 2001 to 2007, p < .05. Summary and Implications Tested and effective policies and programs for preventing adolescent substance misuse are available. They can be implemented and sustained widely in communities with strong prevention coalitions. We should promote the use of tested and effective prevention approaches where appropriate. We should support rigorous evaluation of untested prevention approaches. 87 Summary and Implications We can advance public health in our communities: • Sponsor, endorse and use tested and effective prevention programs. • Promote the collection of data on levels of risk and protection to focus community action on elevated risks. • Engage in community efforts to strengthen protection and reduce risks. For measurable results and sustainability: • USE COMMUNITIES THAT CARE. 88 What is required to install CTC? • • • • • A coalition of community stakeholders. A coordinator for the CTC process. Manuals and curriculum materials. Training from certified trainers. Technical assistance when difficulties are encountered. • A monitoring system to provide routine feedback on progress and outcomes. 89 Communities That Care in the UK and Ireland • CTC training, technical assistance, youth survey and materials are available from the Rainer Foundation in London. • CTC UK Contact: Fran Pollard Rainer Foundation 44 207 336 4806 [email protected] 90 My Vision • Training and technical assistance are readily available to communities seeking to use the CTC system. • Systems for monitoring risk, protection and youth health are in place in communities. • Systems for monitoring fidelity of prevention policies and programs are functioning in communities. • Significant reductions in substance abuse and delinquency are achieved in communities. • Significant increases in positive youth development are achieved across communities. 91 Communities That Care CYDS Publications Arthur, M.W., Briney, J.S., Hawkins, J.D., Abbott, R.D., Brooke-Weiss, B. &. Catalano, R.F. (2007). Measuring community risk and protection using the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Evaluation and Program Planning, 30, 197-211. Brooke-Weiss, B., Haggerty, K. P., Fagan, A. A., Hawkins, J. D., & Cady, R. (2008). Creating community change to improve youth development: The Communities That Care (CTC) system. The Prevention Researcher 15(2), 21-24. Brown, E.C., Hawkins, J.D., Arthur, M.W., Briney, J.S., & Abbott, R.D. (2007). Effects of Communities That Care on prevention services systems: Findings from the Community Youth Development Study at 1.5 years. Prevention Science. 8, 180-191. Fagan, A. A., Hawkins, J. D., & Catalano, R. F. (2008). Using community epidemiologic data to improve social settings: The Communities That Care prevention system. In M. Shinn & H. Yoshikawa (Eds.), Toward positive youth development: Transforming schools and community programs. New York: Oxford University Press. Fagan, A.A., Van Horn, M.L., Hawkins, J.D., & Arthur, M.W. (2007). Using community and family risk and protective factors for community-based prevention planning. Journal of Community Psychology, 35(4), 535-555. Hawkins, J.D. (2006). Science, social work, prevention: Finding the intersections. Social Work Research, 30(3), 137152. Hawkins, J.D., Brown, E.C., Oesterle, S., Arthur, M.W., Abbott, R.D., & Catalano, R.F. (2008). Early effects of Communities That Care on targeted risks and initiation of delinquent behavior and substance use. Journal of Adolescent Health. Murray, D.M., Van Horn, M.L., Hawkins, J.D., & Arthur, M.W. (2006). Analysis strategies for a community trial to reduce 92Trials. adolescent ATOD use: A comparison of random coefficient and ANOVA/ANCOVA models. Contemporary Clinical 27, 188-206. Communities That Care CYDS In Press Brown, E.C., Hawkins, J.D., Arthur, M.W., Van Horn, M.L., & Abbott, R.D. (in press). Multilevel analysis of a measure of prevention collaboration. American Journal of Community Psychology. Fagan, A.A., Hanson, K., Hawkins, J.D., & Arthur, M.W. (in press). Bridging science to practice: Achieving prevention program implementation fidelity in the Community Youth Development Study. American Journal of Community Psychology. Fagan, A.A., Hanson, K., Hawkins, J.D., & Arthur, M.W. (in press). Implementing effective community-based prevention programs in the Community Youth Development Study. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice. Hawkins, J. D., Catalano, R. F., Arthur, M. W., Egan, E., Brown, E. C., Abbott, R. D., et al. (in press). Testing Communities That Care: The rationale, design and behavioral baseline equivalence of the Community Youth Development Study. Prevention Science. Jonkman, H. B., Haggerty, K. P., Steketee, M., Fagan, A. A., Hanson, K., & Hawkins, J. D. (in press). Communities That Care, core elements and context: Research of implementation in two countries. Social Development Issues. Quinby, R.K., Fagan, A.A., Hanson, K., Brooke-Weiss, B., Arthur, M.W., & Hawkins, J.D. (in press). Installing the Communities That Care prevention system: Implementation progress and fidelity in a randomized controlled trial. Journal of Community Psychology. Van Horn, M.L., Fagan, A.A., Jaki, T., Brown, E.C., Hawkins, J.D., Arthur, M.W., Abbott, R.D., & Catalano, R.F. (in press). The use of mixture models to evaluate differential intervention effects in group randomized trials. Multivariate Behavioral Research. 93 Using Advances in Prevention Science to Guide Youth Development and Prevention of Adolescent Problem Behaviours in Communities. J. David Hawkins Ph.D. [email protected] Social Development Research Group University of Washington www.sdrg.org Office of the Minister for Children and Youth Affairs 30 June 2008 94