Transcript Document
Melbourne Rotary 7 April 2010 Communities that Care Evaluation Richard F. Catalano, Ph.D Bartley Dobb Professor for the Study and Prevention of Violence Director, Social Development Research Group School of Social Work University of Washington www.sdrg.org Communities That Care Ltd a partnership between the Rotary Club of Melbourne , the Royal Children’s Hospital & the University of Washington www.wch.org.au/ctc [email protected] Prevention Science Framework Program Implementation and Evaluation Interventions Define the Problem Problem Identify Risk and Protective Factors Response Prevention Science Research Advances Etiology/Epidemiology of Problem Behaviors Identify risk and protective factors that predict problem behaviors and describe their distribution in populations. Efficacy Trials Design and test preventive interventions to interrupt causal processes that lead to youth problems. Risk Factors for Adolescent Problem Behaviors Depression & Anxiety Violence School Drop-Out Teen Pregnancy Delinquency Substance Abuse Risk Factors Community Availability of Drugs Availability of Firearms Community Laws and Norms Favorable Toward Drug Use, Firearms, and Crime Media Portrayals of Violence Transitions and Mobility Low Neighborhood Attachment and Community Disorganization Extreme Economic Deprivation Family School Individual/Peer Protective Factors Individual Characteristics – High Intelligence – Resilient Temperament – Competencies and Skills In each social domain (family, school, peer group and neighborhood) – Positive Opportunities – Reinforcement for Positive Involvement – Bonding – Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards Prevalence of 30 Day Alcohol Use by Number of Risk and Protective Factors Six State Student Survey of 6th-12th Graders, Public School Students 100% 90% Number of Protective Factors 80% Prevalence 70% 0 to 1 2 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 7 8 to 9 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 1 2 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 7 Number of Risk Factors 8 to 9 10+ Prevalence of “Attacked to Hurt” By Number of Risk and Protective Factors 60% Prevalence 50% 40% 30% 20% Protection, Level 0 Protection, Level 1 Protection, Level 2 Protection, Level 3 Protection, Level 4 10% 0% Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level Risk, Level 0 1 2 3 4 Prevalence of Other Problems by Number of Risk Factors 50 40 depressive symptomatology 30 deliberate self harm % homelessness 20 early sexual activity 10 0 0-1 2-3 4-6 Risk factors 7-9 >=10 Bond, Thomas, Toumbourou, Patton, and Catalano, 2000 Number of School Building Level Risk Factors and Probability of Meeting Achievement Test Standard Probability of Meeting Standard (10th Grade Students) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Number of Risk Factors Arthur et al., 2006 Math Reading Writing Epidemiology Different neighborhoods have different profiles of risk, protection, and outcomes. Distribution of Risk in a City Neighborhood #2 Insufficient number of students in this area. No students in this area. Neighborhood #1 Neighborhood #3 John A. Pollard, Ph.D. Developmental Research and Programs Prevention Science Research Advances Etiology/Epidemiology of Problem Behaviors Identify risk and protective factors that predict problem behaviors and describe their distribution in populations. Efficacy Trials Design and test preventive interventions to interrupt causal processes that lead to youth problems. Wide Ranging Approaches Have Been Found To Be Effective 1. Prenatal & Infancy Programs 2. Early Childhood Education 3. Parent Training 4. After-school Recreation 5. Mentoring with Contingent Reinforcement 6. Youth Employment with Education 7. Organizational Change in Schools (Hawkins & Catalano, 2004) 8. Classroom Organization, Management, and Instructional Strategies 9. School Behavior Management Strategies 10. Classroom Curricula for Social Competence Promotion 11. Community & School Policies 12. Community Mobilization Selected Benefit Cost Findings Summary of Benefits and Costs (2003 Dollars) Dollars Per Youth Benefits Costs B-C $17,202 $7,301 $9,901 Nurse Family Partnership $26,298 Life Skills Training $746 Seattle Soc. Dev. Project $14,246 Guiding Good Choices $7,605 Multi-D Treat. Foster Care $26,748 Intensive Juv. Supervision $0 Big Brothers/Sisters (all costs) $4,058 $9,118 $29 $4,590 $687 $2,459 $1,482 $4,010 $17,180 $717 $9,837 $6,918 $24,290 -$1,482 $48 (PV lifecycle) Early Childhood Education (taxpayer costs only) $4,058 $1,283 Steve Aos, Associate Director Washington State Institute for Public Policy [email protected] www.wa.gov/wsipp $2,775 But… Prevention approaches that do not work or have not been evaluated have been more widely used than those shown to be effective. (Gottfredson et al 2000, Hallfors et al 2000, Hantman et al 2000, Mendel et al 2000, Silvia et al 1997; Smith et al 2002) Communities that Care Model for Achieving the Vision of Science Informing Practice Provides the education, skills and tools to build community capacity to change youth outcomes through choosing and implementing tested, effective programs matched to their needs The Communities That Care Operating System • Community readiness assessment. • Identification of key individuals, stakeholders, and organizations. Get Started Implement and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile The Communities That Care Operating System • Training key leaders and board in CTC Get Started Implement and Evaluate • Building the community coalition. Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile The Communities That Care Tools for Decision Making Get Started Implement and Evaluate Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan • Collect risk/protective factor and outcome data. Get Organized • Construct a community profile from the data. Develop a Profile The CTC Youth Survey Tool Helps Match Need to Tested, Effective Programs Identifies levels of 21 risk and 9 protective factors and academic and behavioral outcomes Guides planners to select tested, effective actions Monitors the effects of chosen actions The Communities That Care Tools for Decision Making Get Started Implement and • Define outcomes. •Prioritize risk factors to be Evaluate targeted. • Select tested, effective interventions. • Create action plan. • Develop evaluation plan. Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile Peer-Individual Total Risk Gang Involvement Intention to Use Drugs Depressive Symptoms Rewards for ASB Friends' Use of Drugs Interaction with Antisocial Peers Perceived Risk of Drug Use School Attitude Favorable to Drug Use Attitude Favorable to ASB Early Initiation of Drug Use Early Initiation of ASB Rebelliousness Low Commitment to School Family Academic Failure Parent Attitudes Favor Drug Use Parent Attitudes Favorable to ASB Community amily History of Antisocial Behavior Family Conflict Poor Family Management Perceived Availability of Handguns Perceived Availability of Drugs Laws & Norms Favor Drug Use Community Disorganization Low Neighborhood Attachment Percentage of Youth at Risk School A 2005 Risk Profile 100% Total 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Schenectady High School Protective Factors Risk Factor Addressed Individual/Peer Domain Rebelliousness Friends Who Engage in the Problem Behavior Favorable Attitudes Toward the Problem Behavior Early Initiation of the Problem Behavior Constitutional Factors Healthy Beliefs & Clear Standards Bonding Opport. Skills Recog. Developmental Period Family Therapy 6-14 Classroom Curricula for Social Competence Promotion 6-14 School Behavior Management Strategies 6-14 Afterschool Recreation 6-10 Mentoring with Contingent Reinforcement 11-18 Youth Employment with Education 15-18 Parent Training 6-14 Classroom Curricula for Social Competence Promotion 6-14 Afterschool Recreation 6-14 Mentoring with Contingent Reinforcement 11-18 Classroom Curricula for Social Competence Promotion 6-14 Parent Training 6-14 Classroom Organization Management and Instructional Strategy 6-10 Classroom Curricula for Social Competence 6-14 Community/School Policies Prenatal/Infancy Programs Program Strategy Community/School Policies all © 1998 Developmental Research and Programs prenatal-2 Classroom Curricula for Social/ Emotional Competence Promotion Tested, Effective Programs The Life Skills Training Program (Botvin et al., 1995) Project Alert Drug Prevention Curriculum (Ellickson et al., 1993; Ellickson and Bell, 1990) Alcohol Misuse Prevention (Maggs et al., 1998) Towards No Drug Use (Sussman et al. 2003; 2003) Peer-Individual Total Risk Gang Involvement Intention to Use Drugs Depressive Symptoms Rewards for ASB Friends' Use of Drugs Interaction with Antisocial Peers Perceived Risk of Drug Use School Attitude Favorable to Drug Use Attitude Favorable to ASB Early Initiation of Drug Use Early Initiation of ASB Rebelliousness Low Commitment to School Family Academic Failure Parent Attitudes Favor Drug Use Parent Attitudes Favorable to ASB Community Family History of Antisocial Behavior Family Conflict Poor Family Management Perceived Availability of Handguns Perceived Availability of Drugs Laws & Norms Favor Drug Use Community Disorganization Low Neighborhood Attachment Percentage of Youth at Risk School A 2005 Risk Profile 100% Total 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Schenectady High School Protective Factors Risk Factor Addressed School Domain Academic Failure (continued) Lack of Commitment to School Healthy Beliefs & Clear Standards Bonding Opport. Skills Recog. Classroom Organization, Management and Instructional Strategies Classroom Curricula for Social Competence Promotion School Behavior Management Strategies Youth Employment with Education Early Childhood Education Organizational Changes in Schools Classroom Organization, Management and Instructional Strategies School Behavior Management Strategies 6-14 Mentoring with Contingent Reinforcement 11-18 Youth Employment with Education 15-21 Program Strategy Developmental Period 6-18 6-14 6-14 15-21 3-5 6-18 6-18 Classroom Organization, Management, and Instructional Tested, Effective Strategies The Good Behavior Game (Kellam and Rebok, 1992) Seattle Social Development Project (Hawkins et al., 1999; 2005; 2008) Behavioral Intervention for Middle School Students (Bry, 1982) Cooperative Learning Programs (Slavin, 1983) Tutoring Programs (Coie et al., 1984; Greenwood et al., 1993) Success for All (Slavin et al., 1990) The Communities That Care Tools for Accountability • Form task forces. • Identify and train implementers. • Sustain collaborative relationships. • Evaluate processes and outcomes for programs annually. •Evaluate community outcomes every two years. • Adjust programming. Implement and Evaluate Get Started Creating Communities That Care Create a Plan Get Organized Develop a Profile Community Youth Development Study A 24 Community Randomized Trial of CTC PI: J. David Hawkins Co-PI: Richard F. Catalano Funded in 2003 by: National Institute on Drug Abuse Center for Substance Abuse Prevention National Cancer Institute National Institute on Child Health and Development National Institute on Mental Health Communities That Care Theory of Change CTC Training and Technical Assistance (Brown et al, 2007) Adoption of Science-based Prevention Framework Collaboration Regarding Prevention Issues (Quinby et al, 2008; Fagan et al., 2008, Hawkins et al., 2008) Appropriate Choice and Implementation of Tested, Effective Prevention Programs & Adoption of Social Development Strategy as Community’s Way of Bringing Up Children Decreased Risk and Enhanced Protection 2 years post initiation Positive Youth Outcomes 3+ years post initiation Effects of CTC on Onset of Drug Use and Delinquency Onset of substance use and delinquency between grade 6 and 8: Alcohol use* Cigarette smoking* Smokeless tobacco use* Marijuana use Other illicit drug use Delinquent behavior* Among 5th grade students who had not yet initiated. *=Significant at p<.05 Hawkins et al., 2009 Effects of CTC on Current Drug Use and Delinquency in the Panel • • • • Alcohol use* Binge drinking* Tobacco Use* Delinquency* *=significant at p<.05 Hawkins et al., 2009 Prevalence of Binge Drinking in Past Two Weeks In Panel In Control and CTC Communities 25.00 Percentage 20.00 15.00 9.0 10.00 5.00 p < .05 5.7 1.3 ns 1.0 0.00 Grade 5 Controls Grade 8 CTC Note. Observed rates averaged across 40 imputations. ns = nonsignificant. N = 4407. Hawkins et al., 2009 Mean Number of Different Delinquent Behaviors Committed by Panel in Past Year In CTC and Control Communities Number 3.00 2.00 1.13 1.00 p < .01 .78 .36 ns .31 0.00 Grade 5 Controls Note. Observed means averaged across 40 imputations. ns = nonsignificant. N = 4407 Grade 8 CTC Hawkins et al., 2009 Summary and Implications There is evidence that we can advance public health in our communities by using CTC to: • Promote the collection of data on levels of risk and protection to focus community action on elevated risks. • Engage in community efforts to strengthen protection and reduce risks. • Sponsor, endorse and use tested and effective prevention programs. • Deliver effective programs with fidelity Communities That Care has been pioneered in Australia Bunbury Ballarat Mornington Communities That Care LTD Accomplishments CTC Survey Victoria Wide (1999, 2009) Establishment of CTC Ltd (support from the Rotary Club of Melbourne, the Baker Foundation, Perpetual Trustees, VicHealth, the Brockhoff Foundation, the Victorian Community Support Fund and others) Selection of demonstration sites-2002 Evaluation of demonstration sites in process with promising findings Communities That Care LTD What Can You Do Now? Continue Rotary Club link Help identify new communities that need CTC Support the CTC evaluation trial Support implementation of tested, effective programs Encourage investment in prevention Communities That Care Ltd a partnership between the Rotary Club of Melbourne , the Royal Children’s Hospital & the University of Washington www.wch.org.au/ctc [email protected] Communities That Care: Quasi-Experimental Effectiveness Trial in Pennsylvania Investigators: Mark Feinberg Mark Greenberg Louis Brown Damon Jones Collaborative Policy Innovators: Mike Pennington Clay Yeager Summary of Findings • Overall, CTC communities showed lower levels of risk factors, substance abuse, and delinquency (7x as many as chance) • Even greater impact where evidence-based prevention programs were used (11x)