Transcript StatsNZ Slides A4 Landscape

Population Ageing in
New Zealand
By Mansoor Khawaja
Chief Demographer
Statistics New Zealand
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Population Ageing
Myth or Reality?
Population Ageing in New Zealand
FACTS VERSUS FICTION
‘Population ageing is widely viewed as a serious
problem or 'burden' over the coming decades.’
‘... a shrinking working-age population will be
obliged to finance the pensions, health care and
other services required by a burgeoning older
population..… higher taxes!!!’
 ‘NZ Superannuation is generationally
inequitable...!’
‘... this is a field in which speculation and wellresearched facts are hard to separate.’
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Aim
 This presentation largely deals with the demographics of
population ageing in New Zealand. The presentation
includes:
 historical context,
 future prospects, and
 an outline of the socio-demographic features of the older
population.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
An historical context
 The population of New Zealand is ageing.
 Its most documented feature is the growing size of the
older population and its increasing share of the total
population.
 Other features include: a rise in the average age of
population, a decreasing proportion of children (<15), and
an ageing labour force.
 The ageing process is neither a new demographic
phenomenon nor is it unique to New Zealand.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
An historical context (cont.)
 In fact, population ageing in New Zealand, as in other
developed countries, began over a century ago, with the
onset of transition in fertility from relatively large to
relatively small families.
 At the dawn of the 20th century, we were a very young
population in demographic terms.
 Half of our population was below 23 years of age.
 Children outnumbered the older population, (taken as
those aged 65+ years) by 8 to 1.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
TABLE 1
New Zealand Population
Age Structure Changes, 1901-1999
Age group (years)
1901
1926
1946
1966
1986
1999
Under 15
33
Percentage Distribution
30
27
32
25
15-64
63
65
64
59
65
65
65+
4
5
9
8
10
12
Ratio of Under 15 to 65+
8:1
6:1
3:1
4:1
2.5:1
2:1
23
26
30
26
30
34
Median Age (years)
(1)
23
(1) Half the population is below this age.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
An historical context (cont.)
 Mortality was quite high by today's standards: almost 100
out of every 1,000 newborn babies used to die before
reaching their first birthday.
 The average life expectancy at birth for New Zealand men
was about 57 years and for New Zealand women 60 years.
 The 1901 Census of Population and Dwellings recorded
31,000 persons over the age of 64 years and they made up
just 4 percent of the population.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
An historical context (cont.)
 Low fertility during the depression years of the 1930s and
the ongoing improvement in life expectancy meant that by
the 1946 Census our median age (half the population is
below, and half above, this age) had risen by 7 years to 30
years.
 The post-World War II "baby boom" reversed the ageing
trend, but only temporarily.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
An historical context (cont.)
 The subsequent drop in fertility to sub-replacement level
lifted the median age to a new high of 34 years in 1999, an
overall increase of 11 years since 1900.
 (The "replacement level" is the level of fertility required for
a population to replace itself without migration. It is
generally taken as 2.1 births per woman.)
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Total and completed fertility rates, 1912-1999
Births per Woman
4.5
Total
Fertility Rate
4.0
3.5
3.0
Completed
Fertility Rate
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1883
1893
1903 1913
1923
1933
1943 1953
1980
1990
2000
1963
1973 Ageing in New Zealand
Population
Year of birth of mother for completed fertility rate
Births by 10-year period
Period
Number
Change
(000)
1926-35
1936-45
1946-55
1956-65
1966-75
1976-85
1986-95
284
350
508
617
612
518
576
…
66
158
109
-5
- 94
58
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Census population by broad age group
Age Group
1945(1)
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
(000)
0-14
413
683
872
928
795
832
15-64
1,046
1,291
1,581
1,922
2,126
2,364
144
198
223
280
342
423
1,603
2,172
2,677
3,129
3,263
3,618
65+
Total
(1) Excludes the Maori population.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Past growth of the older population
 Between 1901 and 1951, the number of New Zealanders
aged 65+ years increased almost six-fold, from 31,000 to
177,000.
 Over the next 48 years, it grew by another 151 percent to
reach 446,000 in 1999.
 This was much faster than for the rest of the population:
for instance the number of children under 15 years and
those in the working ages (15-64 years), increased by 54
and 109 percent respectively.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Past growth of the older population (cont.)
 Reduction in mortality, especially in childhood mortality,
and an improvement of almost 20 years in life expectancy
at birth during the 20th century were important elements in
the growth of the older population.
 A newborn male in 1999 could expect to live on average 75
years and a newborn female about 80 years.
 Also, more people are now surviving beyond 65 years of
age.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Life expectancy at age 65 years
Period
Male
1950-52
1995-97
12.8
15.5
Change
1950-52 to 1995-97
2.7
Female Difference
(F-M)
(years)
14.8
2.0
19.0
3.5
4.2
1.5
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Past growth of the older population (cont.)
 Between 1950-52 and 1995-97, the expectation of life at age
65 years increased by 2.7 years for males and 4.2 years for
females, to 15.5 and 19.0 years, respectively.
 The share of New Zealand's population aged 65+ years has
increased three-fold, from 4 percent in 1901 to 9 percent in
1946, and further to over 12 percent in 1999.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Future prospects???
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Long-term assumptions
 Fertility (births per woman)



Low
Medium
High
1.60
1.85
2.10
 Life expectancy at birth (years)
Male



Low mortality
Medium mortality
High mortality
84.5
82.5
80.5
Female
88.0
86.5
85.0
 Annual net migration

0,
5,000,
10,000,
20,000
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Demographic outlook
 The future demographic outlook for NZ is remarkably
different, in terms of growth patterns, population dynamics
and structural make-up, than that of the previous 100
years.
 During the last century, the NZ population grew by almost
3 million at an average rate of 1.6% a year, with migration
contributing about one-sixth of the total growth.
 If fertility stays below replacement level and migration
mirrors last century’s average annual gain of 5,000, then
the growth rates will tumble and the population is unlikely
to reach the 5 million mark.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
New Zealand population, 1901-2101
7
Million
Series 6
6
Series 8
Series 5
Series 7
Series 4
Series 2
5
4
Series 3
Series 1
3
2
1
Historical
0
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
Projected
2001
2021
2041
2061
2081
2101
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Births and deaths, series 4, 1901-2101
70
(000)
60
Births
Births (000)
50
43,000
1926-45 =
40
Deaths
626
1946-65 = 1,116
30
1966-85 = 1,134
20
1986-05 = 1,131
10
Historical
0
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
Projected
2001
2021
2041
2061
2081
2101
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Medium assumptions (series 4)
 These observations draw on the 'medium' series of the
2001-base New Zealand population projections, which
focus on the 50-year period to 2051.
 This series assumes that during the projection period, life
expectancy at birth for males will increase from 76.1 years
to 82.5 years and for females from 81.0 years to 86.5 years
(as a result of medical advances, changes in lifestyle, etc).
 And, that there will be a net migration gain of 5,000 people
per year (the annual average for the last 100 years).
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Age distribution, series 4, 2001-2051
Year at
30 June
0-14
Age Group (years)
15-64
65+
All Ages
Number (000)
2001
2011
2031
2051
Year at
30 June
2001
2011
2031
2051
877
822
809
752
2,543
2,850
2,857
2,837
461
577
1,048
1,217
3,880
4,248
4,714
4,807
Age Group (years)
0-14
15-64
65+
Median
Age
Percent
Years
22.6
19.3
17.2
15.7
65.5
67.1
60.6
59.0
11.9
13.6
22.2
25.3
34.7
37.7
41.9
45.1
Population Ageing in New Zealand
15-64 Population Distribution, 2001-2051
Age Group
(years)
2001
Year At 30 June
2011
2031
2051
Percentage of 15-64 population
15-29
30-44
45-64
31.1
35.2
33.7
31.8
29.5
38.7
29.0
31.8
39.2
29.3
28.6
42.1
15-64 Population (000)
15-64 Percentage of Total
Total Population (000)
2,543
66
3,880
2,850
67
4,248
2,857
61
4,714
2,837
59
4,807
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Future prospects
 Latest projections indicate that the population aged 65+
years is expected to grow by 116,000 between 2001 and
2011, to reach 577,000.
 The pace of increase is projected to pick up after the year
2011, when the large baby boom generation begins to enter
this age group.
 For instance, between 2011 and 2021 the population aged
65+ years is projected to grow by 216,000 and in the
following ten years by 256,000.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Population aged 65+ years
1.4
Population
Ten-yearly Change
Alternative Fertility Scenarios
Projection Series 4
Million
Series 8
1.2
Series 4
Series 1
1.0
300
250
200
0.8
150
0.6
100
0.4
50
0.2
Historical
Projected
(000)
0
0.0
-50
1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101
Ten-year period ending
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Future prospects (cont.)
 By 2051, there will be 1.22 million people aged 65+ years in
New Zealand.
 This represents an increase of 757,000 or 164 percent over
the base (2001) population.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
One in four of us will aged 65+ years
 Those aged 65+ years are expected to make up 25 percent
(or 1 in 4) of all New Zealanders (4.81 million) by 2051.
 At present there are about half as many older New
Zealanders as children.
 By 2051, there are projected to be 62 percent more people
aged 65+ years than children.
 Given the prospects of sub-replacement fertility,
increasing life expectancy and the passage of baby
boomers into retirement ages, it is projected that half of all
New Zealanders will be older than 45 years by 2051,
compared with a median age of 35 years in 2001.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Ageing of the aged
 The older group itself is ageing.
 There will be about six times as many old-old (85+ years)
in 2051 (294,000 people) as there were in 2001 (50,000
people).
 In 2051 they will make up 24 percent of all New Zealanders
aged 65+ years, compared with 11 percent in 2001.
 The 85+ group will also account for 6 percent of all New
Zealanders in 2051.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Population distribution 65+, series 4, 2001-2051
Age Group
(years)
2001
Year At 30 June
2011
2031
2051
Percentage of 65+ population
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
28.4
26.2
21.0
13.6
10.8
30.2
24.3
18.0
14.2
13.3
27.5
24.5
19.1
14.7
14.2
21.6
19.0
18.4
16.9
24.1
65+ Population (000)
65+ Percentage of Total
Total Population (000)
461
12
3,880
577
14
4,248
1,048
22
4,714
1,217
25
4,807
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Ageing of the aged (cont.)
 The significant growth of the old-old group has direct
implications for health expenditure, because there is a
significant rise in the incidence of disability with age, and
an increased need for health treatment and care, and
social services.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
How reliable are these projections?
 Some analysts have observed that as the people who will
reach age 65 years during the projection period have
already been born, their future numbers can be estimated
fairly accurately.
 However, this assumption is subject to some reservations
because projections involve a number of unknowns.
 For instance, a Statistics New Zealand report (1995) found
that over a fifth of a million baby boomers had emigrated
by 1991.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
How reliable are these projections? (cont.)
 Their return in the years ahead would boost the number of
older people, as would any increase in immigrants
resulting from changes in immigration policy.
 Gains in life expectancy larger than those assumed here
are likely to produce a similar effect.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Projected resident population in 2051, series 4
Age group
(1)
(2)
(3)
1996-base 1999-base 2001-base
(years)
(000)
65+
85+
1,145
255
1,181
293
1,217
294
 Life expectancy at birth in 1996:

74.3 years (Males), 79.5 years (Females)
 Life expectancy assumed in 2051:



1996-base projections: 81.0 years (M), 85.5 years (F)
1999-base projections: 82.0 years (M), 86.5 years (F)
2001-base projections: 82.5 years (M), 86.5 years (F)
Population Ageing in New Zealand
International total fertility rate, 1996
Country
Spain
Italy
Japan
Switzerland
Netherlands
Scotland
Canada
Sweden
France
England and Wales
Denmark
Australia
Norway
NEW ZEALAND
Births per
woman
1.15
1.22
1.43
1.50
1.53
1.55
1.59
1.61
1.72
1.73
1.75
1.80
1.89
1.96
Population Ageing in New Zealand
International fertility trends, 1962-98
3.5 Births per woman
Netherlands
3.0
France
2.5
Sweden
2.0
1.5
1.0
Germany
0.5
0.0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998
Population Ageing in New Zealand
International fertility trends, 1962-98 (cont.)
5
Births per woman
New Zealand
4
3
Australia
2
Canada
England
& Wales
1
0
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Population Ageing in New Zealand
International life expectancy at birth
Country
Period
Male
Female
(years)
Japan
Sweden
Canada
Australia
England & Wales
NEW ZEALAND
United States
1997
1993-97
1997
1995-97
1994-96
1995-97
1997
77.2
76.2
75.8
75.7
74.4
74.3
73.6
83.8
81.4
81.4
81.4
79.6
79.6
79.2
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Age distribution with medium fertility, 2001-2101
Year at
30 June
2001(base)
2011
2031
2051
2061
2071
2081
2091
2101
Age group (years)
Under 15
15-64
65+
Percent
22.6
65.5
11.9
19.3
67.1
13.6
17.2
60.6
22.2
15.7
59.0
25.3
15.8
57.6
26.6
15.6
57.3
27.1
15.5
57.7
26.8
15.6
57.5
26.9
15.6
57.4
27.0
Median
Age
Years
34.7
37.7
41.9
45.1
45.1
45.5
45.7
45.4
45.5
These figures assume "medium" fertility (TFR = 1.85 births per woman),
medium mortality and a net migration gain of 5,000 per year.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Ageing and superannuation
 In recent years there has been an intense debate about the
implications of a burgeoning older population for social
and economic planning, especially with regard to
superannuation, health and other aged-care services.
 Some have argued that "the structure and level of New
Zealand superannuation benefits are both unsustainable
and generationally inequitable" (Schaardenburg, 1999,
p.42).
 Such debates often draw on the projected changes in the
‘old age’ dependency ratio, which relates the 65+
population to those in 'working' ages (15-64 years).
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Ageing and superannuation (cont.)
 The ratio is projected to increase from the present 18
people aged 65+ per 100 people of working ages to 43 per
100 by 2051. (Projections indicate a drop in the child
dependency ratio.)
 The ratio is demographically-based, and is a crude
measure of the possible dependency burden: for many
people in the working-age group may not be in the labour
force, while many aged 65+ may actually be working.
 Others have argued for a less pessimistic approach as
technological advances or people’s attitudes 20 or 50
years hence cannot be anticipated accurately.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Characteristics of the older population
 The 65+ age group differs in its socio-demographic makeup from the rest of the population.
 For instance there are marked differences in sex ratio,
marital status, employment, living arrangements, income,
geographical distribution, and spatial mobility.
 Neither is the 65+ population a homogeneous group in
terms of these characteristics or in their need for hospital
treatment, community support services, or long-term
residential care.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Sex ratio
 Women outnumber men by a significant margin among the
65+ population and the gap widens as age increases. This
is largely because they have lower mortality rates and live
longer than men - by about 5.3 years, according to the
1995-97 New Zealand Life Tables.
 In 1996, among those aged 65-74 years, 53 percent were
women and 47 percent were men. In the oldest age group
(85+ years), women outnumbered men by 5 to 2.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Sex ratio (cont.)
 Because women have traditionally married men 2-3 years
older than themselves, and because they outlive men, the
incidence of widowhood increases rapidly with age among
older women.
 About one-third of women aged 65-74 are widowed. The
corresponding figure for the 85+ age group is four-fifths.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Living arrangements
 Older people differ in their living arrangements from the
general population.
 At the 1996 Census about 54 percent of older people lived
with a spouse or a partner.
 Because women have a longer life expectancy than men,
and husbands are often older than their wives, gender
differences are marked.
 Two-thirds of older men and two-fifths of older women
were living with a spouse/partner at the 1996 Census. By
contrast, two-fifths of women, but under one-fifth of men
lived alone.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Living arrangements (cont.)
 The incidence of living without a partner increases with
age. Among those aged 65-74 years, 3 out of 10 lived in
one-person households. Among the old-old group (85+
years) the proportion was twice as high - 3 out of 5.
 Women aged 85+ years are five times as likely to be living
without a spouse or a partner, as men of the same age.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Housing
 Older people are more likely than others to own their
home.
 At the 1996 Census, about 81 percent of 65-79 year olds
owned their home, with or without a mortgage.
 This equity provides older people with the flexibility to
consider cost-effective accommodation options as they
grow older, and the need for care and access to services
become major concerns.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Employment
 Few older people are in paid employment.
 At the 1996 Census, just under 10 percent of older New
Zealanders were in the labour force.
 Over half of these worked on a part-time basis.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Employment (cont.)
 The proportion of older people working part time nearly
doubled from about 2.7 percent to over 5.0 percent during
1991-96.
 Another important recent development has been the
removal of the upper age limit for employment, which
presumably acknowledges the 'value of mature workers to
the national economic growth'.
 Its long-term impact on the labour market will be of interest
to policy makers.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Geographical distribution
 There are both inter-area and intra-area differentials in the
geographical distribution of older persons and those
below 65 years of age.
 Nationally, 12 percent of the population is aged 65+ years.
 Sub-nationally, there are a number of territorial authorities
where older people made up 16-22 percent of the total
population in 2001.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Geographical distribution (cont.)
 Examples are: Kapiti Coast (22%), Thames-Coromandel
(20%), Waitaki (19%), Horowhenua, Central Otago, Waimate
& Timaru (18%), Tauranga (17%), Ashburton and Wanganui
(16%). Another ten support a figure of 15 %.
 Low (9% or less) figures are found in Otorohanga,
Kawerau, Waitakere, Wellington, Selwyn, Manukau,
Porirua, & Chatham Islands.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Urbanization
 Older people, like the rest of New Zealanders, are highly
urbanised.
 Over two-thirds live in the major urban centres (areas with
30,000 or more residents).
 However, significantly more older people live in secondary
and minor urban areas (1,000+ population) than the
general population - 22 percent versus 16 percent.
 Policy solutions developed for larger urban centres may
not be suitable for smaller centres or rural areas?
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Urbanization (cont.)
 For example, there are fewer public transport options
available in smaller areas compared to the larger urban
areas, and in some rural areas there may be none.
 Consequently services such as meals on wheels, or home
help may be more difficult and more costly to provide in
rural and remote areas.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Mobility patterns
 People of retirement age maintain a strong interest in both
overseas and domestic travel.
 In the year ended June 1999, for instance, roughly onethird of New Zealanders aged 65-69 years took a short trip
overseas.
 However, they migrate across regional and territorial
authority boundaries less frequently than do New
Zealanders in general.
 Analyses of migrants to and from various subnational
areas shows that some areas like Tauranga and Nelson are
attractive to older migrants.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Mobility patterns (cont.)
 Whereas rural areas and smaller urban centres continue to
lose young people (aged 15-24 years) to large urban
centres, largely because of the greater opportunities for
tertiary education and employment.
 There was a sizeable outflow of older people from main
urban centres during the 1991-1996 period (Khawaja,
1999). While this has positive economic outcomes for
smaller centres, continuation of these patterns would lead
to increasing demand for recreational and health services
in these areas.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Concluding remarks
 The population of New Zealand, like other developed
nations, is ageing.
 Low (sub-replacement) fertility, a continuing improvement
in longevity, an ageing population and an ageing labour
force, reflect the culmination of demographic transitions
which began over a century ago.
 If fertility stays at or below the replacement level the long
term consequence would be a population age structure
with more older people than children, and with 1 in 4 of all
New Zealanders over 64 years of age.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Concluding remarks (cont.)
 Many countries are developing national strategies for their
ageing populations. Such strategies will assess the
demographics of ageing and their implications for social
and economic planning.
 At the national level, the sustainability of a taxpayerfunded superannuation, and the increased cost of
providing health services for older people are important
issues.
Population Ageing in New Zealand
Concluding remarks (cont.)
 At the regional and local levels there are planning
implications for health-related issues (eg disability, mental
health), for housing and accommodation, and for the
provision of aged-care, transport, and community support
services (eg meals on wheels).
 One can foresee the need for studies of older people's
retirement experiences, in terms of life and health
satisfaction, participation in leisure activities, etc.
 Other studies are likely to focus on 'preventive health,
such as increased awareness of health risks, changes in
lifestyle, its impact on longer life expectancy, and better
quality of life'.
Population Ageing in New Zealand