Transcript Knapp_Pollock_Markets_MSS_060124

An Overview of Alaska Pollock Markets
Presented at
Marine Science in Alaska
2006 Symposium
Anchorage, Alaska
January 24, 2006
by
Gunnar Knapp
Professor of Economics
Institute of Social and Economic Research
University of Alaska Anchorage
907-786-7717
[email protected]
The University of Alaska Anchorage Institute of Social and Economic
Research (ISER) has been studying markets for Alaska pollock.
This research was initiated in 1999 with support from the
Pollock Conservation Cooperative Research Center
and has been continued with support from the
North Pacific Fisheries Management Council
Goals of this research are to expand our basic understanding of Alaska
pollock markets and our ability to analyze markets.
•
•
•
•
Collect market data
Learn what different data sources mean
Track market conditions over time
Disseminate market information to fishery managers, government
and academic researchers, and industry
• Preliminary analysis of factors affecting production and prices
• The research stops short of formal econometric modeling of pollock
markets—but is intended to facilitate modeling efforts
This presentation provides a brief overview of
trends in harvests, production, end-markets and
prices for Alaska pollock.
Alaska pollock is a very large and important fishery.
Alaska pollock accounts for more than one-third of total U.S. fisheries landings
and about 7% of total U.S. ex-vessel value.
United States Landings of Pollock and Other Species
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
metric tons
3,000,000
All other
species
2,500,000
2,000,000
Alaska
pollock
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2002
2003
Source: NMFS, Fisheries of the United States.
2004
United States pollock harvests increased rapidly in the 1980s as
pollock fishing in the US EEZ was “Americanized.”
Northeast Pacific Harvests of Alaska Pollock, by Country
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
Other
Countries
1,000,000
800,000
United States
600,000
400,000
200,000
Source: FAO "FAOSTAT+" database
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0
1970
metric tons
1,200,000
Pollock harvests have been very strong for the past five years and are
up significantly from the 1995-2000 period.
United States Alaska Pollock Harvests
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
metric tons
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1990 1991
1992 1993
1994 1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000 2001
2002 2003
Sources: 1990-2003; NMFS Commercial Fisheries Landings data; 2004 & 2005: NMFS Alaska Region Catch Reports.
2004 2005
Harvests of pollock in Russian waters—and total world pollock harvests--have
declined drastically since 1986. The decline in totally supply has strengthened
prices for U.S. pollock products even as U.S. harvests have been increasing—
a very favorable situation for U.S. producers!
World Harvests of Alaska Pollock, by Country
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
Other
countries
4,000,000
Russia
3,000,000
United
States
2,000,000
1,000,000
Source: FAO "FAOSTAT" database.
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1,980
1978
1,976
1,974
1,972
0
1970
metric tons
5,000,000
Share of Alaska Pollock
Product Value, 2004
Other products
3%
The most important
products made from
Alaska pollock are
surimi, fillets, and roe.
Fish meal
4%
Minced fish
2%
Surimi
26%
In 2004, these three
products accounted for
91% of product value.
Fillets
34%
Roe
31%
Source: NMFS Economic Status Report, 2004, Table 25
Share of Alaska Pollock
Product Volume, 2004
Pollock roe is a highpriced product which
accounts for a high share
of value, but only a small
share of product volume.
Minced fish, fish meal,
and other low-priced
products account for a
relatively low share of
value but a higher share
of product volume.
Other products
8%
Fish meal
11%
Surimi
39%
Minced fish
4%
Fillets
33%
Roe
5%
Source: NMFS Economic Status Report, 2004, Table 25
Production of all pollock products has increased since the late 1990s
due to higher catches and higher yields since cooperative fishing began in 1999 and 2000.
Fillet production has increased particularly rapidly as processors have increased the share
of harvests going to fillet production. .
Annual Alaska Pollock Production, by Product (metric tons)
250,000
Surimi
200,000
Fillets
metric tons
150,000
Other products
100,000
50,000
Roe
Source: NMFS Pollock Products Data
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
The share of fillets in total Alaska pollock production has increased while the share of
surimi has declined.
The relative shares of different products vary for shore plants and catcher processors.
Share of Annual Alaska Pollock Production, by Product
60.0%
50.0%
Surimi
40.0%
Fillets
30.0%
Other products
20.0%
10.0%
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1998
1997
1996
1995
1999
Source: NMFS Pollock Products Data
2005
Roe
0.0%
Pollock Fillet Markets
Pollock fillet processing
Photographs by Gunnar Knapp
Total Alaska pollock fillet production has more than doubled since the
late 1990s, due to increased harvests, increased yields, and a shift
from surimi to fillet production.
Alaska Pollock Fillets Production
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
Production
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Fillet production volume as a share of total harvest volume has more
than doubled—reflecting increased yields and a shift from surimi
production to fillet production as fillet prices increased.
Fillet Production Volume as a Share of Total Alaska Pollock Harvests
12.0%
10.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.0%
1995
$/lb
8.0%
Sources: Harvests: 1990-2003; NMFS Commercial Fisheries Landings data; 2004 & 2005: NMFS Alaska Region Catch Reports;
Production: NMFS Economic Status Reports;
Most of the growth in fillet production has been skinless/boneless fillets.
Annual Alaska Pollock Fillet Production, by Fillet Type
180,000
160,000
140,000
Other fillets
100,000
80,000
Skinless/boneless
fillets
60,000
Deep-skin fillets
40,000
20,000
Source: NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
metric tons
120,000
Most of the increase in pollock production has gone to exports.
The estimated volume going to the U.S. market has stayed about the same.
Alaska Pollock Fillet End-Markets
180,000
160,000
Exports
140,000
U.S.
domestic
market
100,000
80,000
U.S. domestic
market
estimated as
total
production
minus exports
60,000
40,000
20,000
Source: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data; NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
metric tons
120,000
Most pollock fillet exports go to Europe.
The most important export markets are Germany and the Netherlands.
Alaska Pollock Fillet End-Markets
180,000
160,000
Exports to
Other Countries
140,000
Exports to
Netherlands
100,000
80,000
Exports to
Germany
60,000
U.S.
domestic
market
40,000
20,000
Source: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data; NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
metric tons
120,000
Alaska pollock producers face competition in the U.S. domestic market
from imported “twice-frozen” pollock fillets and fillet blocks—almost
entirely Russian pollock processed in China.
Estimated U.S. Consumption of Pollock Fillets, by Source
180,000
160,000
Imports, frozen
fillets
140,000
100,000
Imports, frozen
fillet blocks
80,000
60,000
40,000
Estimated U.S.
production for
domestic
market
20,000
Source: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data; NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
metric tons
120,000
United States pollock fillets face competition in European markets from
Russian pollock, much of which is processed in China.
European Union Pollock Fillet Imports
300.0
200.0
Other countries
USA
Russia
China
150.0
100.0
50.0
Source: FAO Globefish, Groundfish Commodity Report, 2005.
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.0
1995
thousand metric tons
250.0
With federal funding
from the Alaska
Fisheries Marketing
Board, Alaska pollock
producers have begun
a “Genuine Alaska
Pollock Producers”
marketing campaign to
promote Alaskaharvested Alaska
pollock as sustainably
managed and superior
to twice-frozen Russian
pollock.
Source: http://gapp.us/
Alaska pollock also competes in world fillet markets with numerous
other groundfish species.
World Groundfish Production
12,000
Other species
Argentine hake
Saithe
Atlantic cod
Blue whiting
Alaska pollock
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Source: FAO Globefish, Groundfish Commodity Report 2005
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
thousand metric tons
10,000
After peaking in 1999 and crashing in 2000, fillet prices have been
relatively stable in recent years.
Average First Wholesale Prices of Alaska Pollock Fillets
$1.80
At-Sea
Deep-Skin
Fillets
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
At-Sea
Other Fillets
$/lb
$1.00
$0.80
Shore Plant
Other Fillets
$0.60
$0.40
Average export
price, frozen
fillets
$0.20
Source: NMFS Economic Status Reports, 2000, 2003 & 2004.
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
$0.00
In late 2005, market conditions for Alaska pollock fillets
were relatively strong.
Average U.S. Monthly Export Prices: Frozen Fillets
$1.20
$1.00
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
Solurce: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
$0.00
Jan-02
$/lb
$0.80
Factors affecting pollock fillet markets
•
•
•
•
Supply of pollock from harvests in Russian waters
Supply of other wild whitefish
Supply of farmed whitefish (tilapia and cod)
Changing demand for whitefish fillet products
– Declining demand for fish sticks
– Increasing consumer health consciousness
• Marketing
– Certification of Alaska pollock by Marine Stewardship Council
– “Genuine Alaska Pollock Products” marketing campaign
• Shift in processing to China and other low-labor cost countries
Pollock Surimi Markets
Pollock Surimi Processing
Boxes of Frozen Surimi
Alaska pollock surimi production has risen only slightly since the late
1990s. Rising harvests and yields have been offset by a shift from
surimi to fillet production.
Alaska Pollock Surimi Production
250,000
200,000
150,000
Production
100,000
50,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
U.S. surimi exports have increased since the late 1990s.
Most U.S. pollock surimi production is exported.
Alaska Pollock Surimi End-Markets
250,000
Exports
200,000
Estimated
U.S.
domestic
market
metric tons
150,000
100,000
50,000
Source: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data; NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
U.S. domestic
market
estimated as
total
production
minus exports
Most pollock surimi exports go to Japan and South Korea.
Exports to South Korea are increasing.
Alaska Pollock Surimi End-Markets
250,000
Exports to
Other Countries
200,000
Exports to
South Korea
metric tons
150,000
Exports to
Japan
100,000
Estimated
U.S.
domestic
market
50,000
Source: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data; NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Pollock surimi competes in world markets with surimi made from other
species. In the Japanese markets, threadfin bream surimi from
Thailand and India accounts for an increasing share of supply.
Japanese Surimi Imports
250,000
200,000
Cod surimi
metric tons
150,000
Threadfin bream
surimi
Pollock surimi
100,000
50,000
Source: BANR Japanese Imports Data; NMFS Japanese imports data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Surimi wholesale prices declined between 1999 and 2001, but have
since been relatively stable.
Average First Wholesale Prices of Alaska Pollock Surimi
$1.40
Wholesale
price,
at-sea
production
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$/lb
Wholesale
price,
shore plant
production
$0.60
$0.40
Average
export
price
$0.20
Source: NMFS Economic Status Reports; NMFS Fisheries Trade Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
$0.00
Market conditions for pollock surimi were relatively strong in 2005.
Average U.S. Monthly Export Prices: Pollock Surimi
$1.20
$1.00
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
Solurce: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
$0.00
Jan-02
$/lb
$0.80
Factors affecting pollock surimi prices
• Supply of surimi from other sources
– Russian pollock
– Other whitefish
– Threadfin bream
• Changing Japanese demand for traditional surimi-based products
• Changing demand for surimi-based products in other markets
• Exchange rates
POLLOCK ROE MARKETS
Pollock roe before processing
Photograph by Gunnar Knapp
Unisea worker packing pollock roe
Source: www.unisea.com/prod_pollock_roe.htm
Alaska pollock roe production has increased by about 60% since the
late 1990s.
Alaska Pollock Roe Production
30,000
25,000
20,000
Production
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Almost all United States pollock roe production is exported.
United States Pollock Roe Reported Production and Exports
30,000
25,000
Production
Exports
15,000
10,000
5,000
Sources: NMFS Pacific Cod and Pollock Production data; NMFS trade data.
Note: 2005 data are through September (trade data) and early November (production data).
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
1995
metric tons
20,000
Most pollock roe exports go to Japan and South Korea.
Exports to South Korea have increased dramatically in recent years .
United States Pollock Roe Exports by Country
30,000
25,000
metric tons
20,000
Other
South Korea
Japan
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: NMFS trade data. 2005 data are for January-September.
2004
2005
A large share of
United States pollock
roe production is sold
at auctions held each
year in Seattle.
There are numerous different grades
of pollock roe, which command
widely varying prices.
Auction prices for Westward Seafoods pollock
Roe at a March 2004 auction, as reported by
a Japanese Seafood Industry Newspaper
Bidders Inspecting Product at
a Pollock Roe Auction
Source: Ocean Trade Seafoods website:
www.oceantradefoods.com/seafood.asp
Source: Bill Atkinson’s News Report, Issue 1091, March 23, 2005
U.S. pollock roe competes in Asian markets with Russian pollock roe.
Although U.S. production has increased, total pollock roe supply has
decreased because of declining Russian harvests.
Japanese Pollock Roe Imports (metric tons)
60,000
Low supply in 2000
caused a price spike.
50,000
Other countries
Russia
United States
30,000
20,000
10,000
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
1996
metric tons
40,000
Prices for pollock roe can vary widely from year to year—reflecting
variation in production and inventories.
Annual Average Prices for Frozen Pollock Roe
$10.00
$9.00
Average
Japanese
import price
$8.00
$7.00
Average first
wholesale
price, at-sea
production
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
Low supply in 2000
caused a price spike.
$1.00
Sources: NMFS Economic Status Reports; NMFS Japanese Fisheries Imports data
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
$0.00
1996
$/lb
$6.00
Average first
wholesale
price,
onshore
production
Historically, Japanese wholesale prices for pollock roe
have been inversely related to total supply.
Estimated Total Japanese Pollock Roe Supply
and Average Import Price of Frozen Pollock Roe
100,000
2,500
90,000
Estimated total supply (metric tons)
80,000
2,000
70,000
60,000
1,500
50,000
Price
40,000
1,000
30,000
20,000
500
10,000
0
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: BANR Japanese Fisheries Imports Annual Summaries; Supply estimates reported in BANR Issue 1117 (10/12/05).
Average annual import price (yen/kilo)
Supply
Market conditions for pollock roe in 2005
were similar to 2004 and 2003.
Average U.S. Monthly Export Prices: Pollock Roe
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$/lb
$4.00
$3.00
Note: Figure excludes prices
for months with total exports
of less than 100 metric tons
$2.00
$1.00
Solurce: NMFS Fisheries Trade Data
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
$0.00
Factors affecting future pollock roe markets
• Supply of pollock roe from Russian harvests
• Yen-dollar exchange rate
• Japanese and Korean consumer tastes for traditional and new
pollock roe products
CONCLUSIONS . . .
World pollock markets are complex. Many different products are
sold in many different markets affected by many different factors. .
Japan pollock roe market
U.S. pollock harvests
South Korean pollock
roe market
Russian and other
countries’ pollock
harvests (mostly from
Russian waters)
Japan surimi market
U.S. surimi market
Global harvests
of other whitefish
Other surimi markets
U.S. fillet
and block
market
Global harvests of
other species used for
surimi production
Chinese reprocessors
European
fillet and
block
markets
CONCLUSIONS:
Overall, the pollock industry is doing well.
Strong catches and prices combined for a record wholesale value of $1.1 billion in 2004.
Annual Alaska Pollock First Wholesale Value
1200.0
1000.0
Other products
Fish meal
Minced fish
Roe
Fillets
Surimi
600.0
400.0
200.0
Source: NMFS Pollock Products Data
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0.0
1995
millions of dollars
800.0
CONCLUSIONS . . .
• Pollock markets are diversified
– Having a variety of products helps to stabilize total value
– Processors can shift production to products for which prices are
more favorable
• Prices for different pollock products can vary widely over time
• Important factors affecting prices include:
– Alaska pollock harvests and production
– Russian pollock harvests and production
– Other whitefish harvests and production
– Potential for growing farmed whitefish supply
– Non-pollock surimi supply
– Changing demand conditions
– Marketing
– Exchange rates