Transcript BRCPC Electric Supply Portfolio Report

ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio Report
April 4, 2014 (Revised April 7, 2014)
Contents
I. Supply Portfolio Results
Page #
A. Key Performance Measures
4
B. Electric Supply Cost Chart – FY14
5
C. Electric Supply Cost Summary – FY14
6
II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
A. Hedge Position Chart
8
B. Block Purchase Plan
9
C. Proforma Hedge Position Chart
10
D. Forward Market Price Reports
11-12
E. Hourly Market Price Reports
13-15
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
Appendix
2
A. Portfolio Cost and Billing Rate History
17
B. Electric Supply Portfolio vs. DPL SOS Rate Summary
18
C. Working Capital – Billing Rate Comparison
19
D. Billing Rate Alternatives
20
E. FY14 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule
21
F. Proposed FY 15 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule
22
24-31
I. Supply Portfolio Results
3
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Key Portfolio Measures
February 2014
1. Total Supply Cost ($/MWh)
Feb 2014*
Actual
FY 2014 - Feb YTD *
O/(U) Budget
Actual
O/(U) Budget % O/(U) Budget
Unit Cost, $/MWh
$97.22
$16.05
$101.72
$18.24
21.9%
Cost @ Volume**
$1,223,728
$202,027
$10,671,974
$1,913,869
21.9%
* Subject to PJM 60 day settlement
** Represents unit cost variance to budget, does not reflect volumetric valariance to budget
2. Replacement Value - Blocks - Current Market O/(U) Hedge Costs ($MM)
FY 2014
FY 2015
FY 2016+
Total
($0.15)
0.62
0.36
$0.83
3. Hedge Summary
FY
FY
FY
FY
2014
2015
2016
2017
Minimum
Peak
80%
80%
40%
0%
Guideline
Off
75%
75%
38%
0%
Total
78%
78%
39%
0%
4. Actual/ Forecasted Supply Cost ($ Mwh)
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015
4
Total
YR to YR Incr/(decr)
Supply Cost
$/MWh
%
$80.79
($0.25)
-0.3%
$100.00
$19.21
23.8%
$76.00
($24.00)
-24.0%
Peak
87%
83%
42%
21%
Actual
Off
67%
67%
34%
34%
Total
79%
76%
38%
26%
$/MWh
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Cost
FY 2014
$110
$110
Jan 2014 =$165.97
$105
$105
$100
$100
$95
$95
$90
$90
$85
$85
$80
$80
$75
$75
$70
$70
$65
$65
$60
$60
Monthly Actual
5
Prior Year
YTD Actual
Portf olio Budget
Billed Rate
Total Supply Cost, Cumulative FY 2014
ESMEC
Updated: 3/17/2014
Final
Sep-13
Final
Oct-13
Final
Nov-13
Final
Dec-13
Prelim
Jan-14
Prelim
Feb-14
Cumulative
PJM Load Charges - WGESE
Est. Meter Volume, MWh
Energy - DA & RT
Ancillary Charges
Transmission
Capacity
ARR/FTR & Marginal Loss
Miscellaneous
PJM Electric Cost
60 Day Reconciliation (Included in Energy & Ancillary Above)
Bilateral Electric Cost
13,168
12,780
12,121
$184,061
109,059
53,252
232,311
(13,135)
0
$85,860
110,636
54,996
239,098
(12,669)
0
$97,227
88,411
53,211
231,728
(11,806)
0
$125,866
88,887
54,964
237,776
(13,722)
0
$1,261,487
275,366
50,562
238,594
(35,737)
$324,855
33,603
45,939
215,257
(18,617)
$2,377,817
826,801
422,978
1,875,366
(136,201)
0
565,548
477,922
458,772
493,772
1,790,271
601,037
5,366,761
60,422
(29,586)
(3,820)
12,957
14,869
12,587
(8,809)
104,918
(83,021)
587,388
628,897
587,943
610,100
619,499
560,760
4,833,585
14,604
0
10,718
2,448
21,110
2,589
51,469
16,343
0
10,171
2,530
21,110
2,492
52,646
14,880
0
10,397
2,451
21,110
2,360
51,198
16,269
0
10,166
2,530
55,242
2,559
86,767
18,094
0
5,929
2,530
26,068
5,304
57,925
15,317
7,568
8,064
2,285
26,068
2,630
61,931
131,511
7,568
76,850
19,832
212,930
22,938
471,628
$1,204,405
$1,159,465
$1,097,913
$1,190,639
$2,467,695
$1,223,728
$10,671,974
Unit Costs, $/MWh
Energy
Transmission
Capacity
Ancillary Charges & Credit
Renew able (RPS Requirement)
Other
Total Supply Cost
$58.59
$4.04
17.64
7.28
1.60
2.31
$91.47
$55.93
$4.30
18.71
7.67
1.65
2.47
$90.73
$56.53
$4.39
19.12
6.32
1.74
2.48
$90.58
$56.80
$4.24
18.35
5.80
4.26
2.43
$91.89
$126.51
$3.40
16.05
16.12
1.75
2.14
$165.97
$70.36
$3.65
17.10
1.19
2.07
2.85
$97.22
$68.73
$4.03
17.87
6.58
2.03
2.47
$101.72
Expected Unit Price
Budget Variance
$79.64
$11.83
$82.28
$8.44
$79.59
$11.00
$73.73
$18.16
$84.86
$81.10
$81.17
$16.05
$83.48
$18.24
Hedge Settlement
Unit Cost, $/MWh
$135,648
$3.27
$200,335
$4.82
$171,267
$4.12
$117,464
$2.82
Other Charges
WGES Service Fee
WGES Cost to Carry
WGES Cost of Collateral
WGES Fee for PES Block Delivery
Renew able (RPS Requirement)
Other Fees (MD PSC)
Subtotal
Total Supply Cost
6
($1,276,580)
($30.66)
($293,414)
($7.04)
($755,281)
($7.20)
II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
7
MWh
ESMEC- ET -Current Electric Hedge Status, 3/18/2014
Based on FY 2013 Gross Annual MWhs of 168,000
FY
FY
FY
FY
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual Hedge %'s
Peak
Off
87%
67%
83%
67%
42%
34%
21%
34%
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Total Load
8
Max Hedge
Purchased
Min Hedge
Total
79%
76%
38%
26%
ESMEC-ET Scheduled Block Purchases
As of 3/18/2014
Term
FY 2016
7/15 - 6/16
Block Size
MW
Type
Delivery
Target
Execution
5.0
ATC
WH
By June 2014
WH NYMEX Close as of:
3/14/14
2/14/14
1/6/14
$38.87
$37.71
$36.85
FY 2015 - Winter*
Month
Jan-15
Feb-15
Current Hedge
On Peak Off Peak
77%
80%
63%
59%
Recommended
Additional
Hedge
3 MW ATC
3 MW ATC
Pro forma Hedge
On Peak Off Peak
88%
92%
82%
77%
3/14/14
12/3/13
%
Increase
$56.37
$53.26
$40.66
$38.53
39%
38%
WH NYMEX Close as of:
*Timing of FY15 additional winter hedges will be driven by market prices during Spring-Summer-Fall of 2014
Note: Congestion prices evaluated on an ongoing basis to determine
purchase at West Hub or BGE Zone Delivery point
9
ESMEC-ET Proforma Electric Hedge Status, 6/30/2014
MWh
Based on FY 2013 Gross Annual MWhs of 168,000
Purchased & Scheduled Hedge %'s
Peak
Off
Total
FY 2015
85%
70%
79%
FY 2016
63%
67%
65%
FY 2017
21%
34%
26%
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Total Load
10
Max Hedge
Purchased
Scheduled
Min Hedge
11
12
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM Western Hub, 1998 - 3/2014
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Avg-Monthly
13
Avg-12 Mo
Peak Premium Ratio- DPL, 2001 - 3/31/2014
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Avg Monthly
14
Avg-12 Mo
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM DPL Zone Basis, 1999 - 3/31/2014
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
-$5
Avg Monthly
15
Avg-12 Mo
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
16
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Budget, Actual and Billing Rates
($ kWh)
FY 2007
Portfolio budget rate
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
$0.0912
$0.0900
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.0950
$0.0840
$0.0870
$0.0830
Portfolio actual/forecast cost$0.0876
$0.0993
$0.0976
$0.0919
$0.0940
$0.0810
$0.0810
$0.1000
$0.0093
($0.0024)
($0.0081)
($0.0010)
($0.0030)
($0.0060) $0.0170
Actual o/(u) budget
($0.0036)
FY 2015
$0.0760 (Revised)
(Revised)
Approximate Weighted Average Billing Rates (1):
Billing months:
Jul - Oct
Nov - Feb
Mar - Jun
W/A billing rate
$0.0992
$0.0844
$0.0814
$0.0992
$0.0844
$0.0844
$0.1094
$0.0944
$0.0944
$0.1094
$0.0944
$0.0944
$0.0954
$0.0804
$0.0804
$0.0944
$0.0794
$0.0794
$0.0954
$0.0794
$0.0794
$0.0894
$0.0774
$0.0000
Approved
Approved
TBD
$0.0885
$0.0894
$0.0995
$0.0995
$0.0855
$0.0845
$0.0849
$0.0000
TBD
FY 2014 if W/A Rate held at $.0774 thru June 2014 $0.0815
(1) Includes primary (GSP), secondary (LGS, SGS) and outdoor lighting (OL/ORL) rate schedules
Preliminary and forecast rates in blue
17
ESMEC-ET
Electric Supply Rates ($/Kwh)
$/kwh
$0.12000
$0.11500
$0.11000
$0.10500
$0.10000
$0.09500
$0.09000
$0.08500
$0.08000
$0.07500
$0.07000
FY07
FY08
Portfolio Cost
18
FY09
FY10
Weighted Average Billing Rate
FY11
FY12
DPL Standard Offer Service Rate
FY13
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Average Working Capital (W/C) Balances Held with Supplier
$/KWh
$0.120
$1,500,000
Jan '14 $.166 KWh
$0.110
$1,000,000
$0.100
$500,000
$0.090
$0.080
$0
$0.070
($500,000)
$0.060
$0.050
($1,000,000)
W/C Avg Balance
19
Actual Cost ($/KWh)
Billing Rate($/KWh)
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Billing Rate Alternatives
April 4, 2014 (Revised April 7,2014)
1A
1B
2A
2B
FY 2014: Increase Apr - Jun Rates
FY 2014: Increase Apr - Jun Rates
FY 2014: Keep current billing rates
FY 2014: Keep current billing rates
FY 2015: Different Summer/Non Summer Rates
FY 2015: Different Summer/Non Summer Rates
FY 2015: Different Summer/Non Summer Rates
FY 2015: Same Summer/Non Summer Rates
End of Period Month Average
End of Period Month Average
End of Period Month Average
End of Period Month Average
Fiscal
Billing
Billing
Billing Rate
Excess/(Deficient)
Billing Rate
Excess/(Deficient)
Billing Rate
Excess/(Deficient)
Billing Rate
Excess/(Deficient)
Year
Season
Months
$/KWh
Working Capital Balance
$/KWh
Working Capital Balance
$/KWh
Working Capital Balance
$/KWh
Working Capital Balance
$0.0774
($772,223) as of Feb '14
$0.0774
($772,223) as of Feb '14
$0.0774
($772,223) as of Feb '14
$0.0774
($772,223) as of Feb '14
Apr - Jun
$0.0900
($1,322,269)
$0.0850
($1,453,943)
$0.0774
($1,654,087)
$0.0774
($1,654,087)
FY 2015 Summer Jul - Oct
$0.0975
($214,054)
$0.1000
($309,953)
$0.1000
($609,510)
$0.0910
($973,750)
FY 2015 Winter Nov - Feb
$0.0825
$426,171
$0.0850
$459,725
$0.0850
$160,168
$0.0910
($91,274)
FY 2015 Spring
$0.0825
$976,723
$0.0850
$1,143,241
$0.0850
$843,684
$0.0910
$911,356
FY2014
Winter Nov - Mar
FY 2014 Spring
Mar - Jun
FY 2015 W/A Rate
$0.0876
$0.0901
$0.0901
$0.0910
Cost of Carry on Deficient Working Capital Balances (Rate of .98% monthly or 11.76 % annually)
Cost of Carry
Cost of Carry
Cost of Carry
Cost of Carry
Apr - Jun
($39,048)
($40,990)
($43,942)
($43,942)
FY 2015 Summer Jul - Oct
($28,988)
$0
$0
($34,763)
$0
$0
($46,506)
($2,763)
$0
($53,529)
($15,490)
$0
($28,988)
($34,763)
($49,269)
($69,018)
FY 2014 Spring
FY 2015 Winter Nov - Feb
FY 2015 Spring
Mar - Jun
Total FY 2015
Actuals = Black
Alternatives = Blue
20
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ KWh)
Fiscal Year 2014
Billing Period
Summer
Winter
Spring
Status
Approved
Approved
Approved
Supplier Billing Months
July 2013 Oct 2013
Nov 2013 Mar 2014
Apr 2014 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning:
Meter Read Ending:
Jun 2013
Oct 2013
Oct 2013
Mar 2014
Apr 2014
Jun 2014
FY 2014
W/A Billing
Rate
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS)
$0.0900
$0.0780
$0.0855
$0.0845
Primary (GSP)
$0.0875
$0.0755
$0.0830
$0.0821
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL)
$0.0750
$0.0630
$0.0705
$0.0696
$0.0894
$0.0774
$0.0849
$0.0839
Weighted Average Rate
Estimated Portfolio Cost
21
Portfolio Forecast Rate as 3/2014
$0.1000
Original Portfolio Budget Rate
$0.0830
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ KWh)
Fiscal Year 2015
Billing Period
4/7/14
Summer
Winter
Spring
Status
Preliminary
Preliminary
Preliminary
Supplier Billing Months
July 2014 Oct 2014
Nov 2014 Feb 2015
Mar 2014 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning:
Meter Read Ending:
Jun 2014
Oct 2014
Oct 2014
Feb 2015
Feb 2015
Jun 2015
FY 2015
W/A Billing
Rate
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS)
$0.1010
$0.0860
$0.0860
$0.0911
Primary (GSP)
$0.0985
$0.0835
$0.0835
$0.0888
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL)
$0.0860
$0.0710
$0.0710
$0.0761
$0.1004
$0.0854
$0.0854
$0.0906
Weighted Average Rate
Estimated Portfolio Cost
22
Original Portfolio Budget Rate
$0.0730
Revised Portfolio Budget Rate
$0.0760
Appendix
23
ESMEC-ET
Net Costs Incurred/(Avoided) from Usage Purchased on the Spot Market (Hourly Prices)
FY 2007
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014 Thru Feb
Annual $ Cost
Incurred/(Avoided)
from Usage
Purchased on the
Hourly Market
Cumulative
($496,290)
$18,704
($250,938)
($804,674)
($740,140)
($503,003)
($302,001)
$323,627
($496,290)
($477,586)
($728,523)
($1,533,197)
($2,273,337)
($2,776,340)
($3,078,342)
($2,754,715)
MWhs
136,575
158,298
157,558
156,722
173,168
158,726
158,068
104,919
Annual $/MWh Cost
Incurred/(Avoided)
Cumulative
$/MWh
($3.63)
$0.12
($1.59)
($5.13)
($4.27)
($3.17)
($1.91)
$3.08
($3.63)
($1.62)
($1.61)
($2.52)
($2.91)
($2.95)
($2.80)
($2.29)
Footnotes
Based on the monthly unhedged volume (KWh) times the monthly hedge net settlement price ($/MWh)
for the hedged volumes (KWh) each month
Monthly hedge net settlement price represents the difference between the fixed rate and
hourly energy prices for the hedged volumes (KWh).
24
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
RLR, 7/13 - 6/14 (through 12/13)
kW
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Hourly Load
25
30 Day Average
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
RLR, 7/12 - 6/13 (through 6/13)
kW
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Hourly Load
26
30 Day Average
ESMEC-ET - Open Block Purchase Transaction Log
As of:
3/18/14
Purchased Thru Pepco Energy Services
#
5
Purchase
Date
11/23/09
Start
Jul-13
Stop
Jun-14
Type
ATC
Delivery
Point
WH
Index
Settle
RT
Size
(MW)
5.00
Price
($MWh)
$57.00
WH
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
5.00
5.00
3.00
5.00
3.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
$56.40
$53.95
$49.15
$41.90
$52.65
$45.55
$50.00
$46.80
$40.25
Purchased Thru Washington Gas Energy Services
7
9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
9/12/11
11/14/11
9/19/12
9/19/12
3/15/13
4/10/13
7/2/13
11/5/13
11/20/13
Legend
ATC = Around the Clock
WH = West Hub
DA = Day Ahead
RT = Real Time
27
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jul-14
Jul-16
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Peak
ATC
Peak
ATC
Peak
ATC
Peak
Peak
ATC
ESMEC Electric Mark to Market, 3/17/2014
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
($200,000)
Monthly
28
Cumulative
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Capacity and Transmission Tag Summary (MW)
PJM Year (1)
11/12 12/13 13/14
Unforced Capacity Obligation
35.7
33.8
31.4
Calendar Year
2012
2013
2014
Transmission Capacity
(1) PJM Year June 1 - May 31
29
30.0
26.7
24.3
12/13 o/(u) 11/12
MW
%
(1.9)
-5.4%
2013 o/(u) 2012
MW
%
(3.3)
-11.0%
13/14 o/(u) 12/13
MW
%
(2.4)
-7.0%
2014 o/(u) 2013
MW
%
(2.4)
-9.0%
Impact of Inc/(decr) in UCAP MW
Incr/(Decr) in
Incr/(Decr) in
12/13 Year
13/14 Year
Cost ($)
Cost ($)
($119,381)
($214,791)
Impact of Inc/(decr) in Trans Cap MW
Incr/(Decr) in
Incr/(Decr) in
Cal Year
Cal Year
2013 Cost ($)
2014 Cost ($)
($74,246)
($57,451)
PJM - DPL Capacity Prices
$/MWD
$300
$248.30
$250
$197.16
$200
$196.54
$187.37
$171.24
$166.08
$150.53
$142.99
$150
$118.89
$116.15
$100
$50
$15.00
$0
06/07 Pre RPM
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Final Zonal Net Load Prices through 13/14, PJM Base Residual Clearing Prices thereafter
30
16/17
ESMEC-ET
Maryland Renewable Portfolio Requirements
Based on Chapters 583, 556 and 653 enacted May 22, 2012
Required %'s Based on Grandfathered %'s per SB791
Report as of : 3/14/14
Tier I
Compliance Usage
Year
(MWh)
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
31
173,040
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
Total
Market
Required REC
Cost
% Amount Quantity
($/MWh)
(net)
6.40%
8.00%
10.00%
10.10%
12.20%
12.55%
14.90%
16.20%
16.50%
16.85%
18.00%
18.00%
Actuals in Blue
Estimates in Red
SREC (minimum portion of Tier 1)
Market
Cost ($)
11,075 $ 4.15 $ 45,959
13,712 $15.67 $ 214,819
17,140
$
17,312
$
20,911
$
21,511
$
25,539
$
27,767
$
28,281
$
28,881
$
30,852
$
30,852
$
-
Total Market
Required
Market
REC
Cost
% Amount
Cost ($)
Quantity ($/MWh)
0.1000%
0.2000%
0.3000%
0.4000%
0.5000%
0.5500%
0.9000%
1.2000%
1.5000%
1.8500%
2.0000%
2.0000%
173 $ 170.00
343 $170.00
514
686
857
943
1,543
2,057
2,571
3,171
3,428
3,428
$ 29,417
$ 58,277
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
-
Tier 2
Required Total Market
Market
%
REC Cost
Cost ($)
Amount Quantity ($/MWh)
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4,326 $ 0.69 $ 2,985
4,285 $3.35 $ 14,361
4,285
$
4,285
$
4,285
$
4,285
$
4,285
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total Market
Cost ($)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
78,361
287,456
-