Transcript BRCPC Electric Supply Portfolio Report

ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio Report
February 20, 2014
Contents
I. Supply Portfolio Results
Page #
A. Key Performance Measures
4
B. Electric Supply Cost Chart – FY14
5
C. Electric Supply Cost Summary – FY14
6
II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
A. Hedge Position Chart
8
B. Block Purchase Plan
9
C. Proforma Hedge Position Chart
10
D. Forward Market Price Reports
11-12
E. Hourly Market Price Reports
13-15
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
Appendix
2
A. Portfolio Cost and Billing Rate History
17
B. Electric Supply Portfolio vs. DPL SOS Rate Summary
18
C. Working Capital – Billing Rate Comparison
19
D. FY14 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule
20
E. Billing Rate Alternatives
21
23-29
I. Supply Portfolio Results
3
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Key Portfolio Measures
January 2014
1. Total Supply Cost ($/MWh)
Jan 2014*
Actual
FY 2014 - Jan YTD *
O/(U) Budget
Actual
O/(U) Budget % O/(U) Budget
Unit Cost, $/MWh
$165.97
$81.10
$101.60
$17.86
21.3%
Cost @ Volume**
$2,467,695
$1,205,911
$9,422,869
$1,656,064
21.3%
* Subject to PJM 60 day settlement
** Represents unit cost variance to budget, does not reflect volumetric valariance to budget
2. Replacement Value - Blocks - Current Market O/(U) Hedge Costs ($MM)
FY 2014
FY 2015
FY 2016+
Total
($0.23)
0.33
0.23
$0.32
3. Hedge Summary
FY
FY
FY
FY
2014
2015
2016
2017
Minimum
Peak
80%
80%
40%
0%
Guideline
Off
Total
75%
78%
75%
78%
38%
39%
0%
0%
4. Actual/ Forecasted Supply Cost ($ Mwh)
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015
4
Total
Supply Cost
$80.79
$97.50
$76.00
YR to YR Incr/(decr)
$/MWh
%
($0.25)
-0.3%
$16.71
20.7%
($21.50)
-22.1%
Peak
87%
83%
42%
21%
Actual
Off
67%
67%
34%
34%
Total
79%
76%
38%
26%
$/MWh
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Cost
FY 2014
$170
$165
$160
$155
$150
$145
$140
$135
$130
$125
$120
$115
$110
$105
$100
$95
$90
$85
$80
$75
$70
$65
$60
5
$170
$165
$160
$155
$150
$145
$140
$135
$130
$125
$120
$115
$110
$105
$100
$95
$90
$85
$80
$75
$70
$65
$60
Monthly Actual
Prior Year
YTD Actual
Portfolio Budget
Billed Rate
Total Supply Cost, Cumulative FY 2014
ESMEC
Updated: 2/12/2014
Final
Jul-13
Final
Aug-13
Final
Sep-13
Final
Oct-13
Final
Nov-13
Prelim
Dec-13
Prelim
Jan-14
Cumulative
PJM Load Charges - WGESE
Est. Meter Volume, MWh
Energy - DA & RT
Ancillary Charges
Transmission
Capacity
ARR/FTR & Marginal Loss
Miscellaneous
13,266
13,171
13,168
12,780
12,121
13,369
14,869
92,743
$174,907
49,164
55,064
240,427
(16,844)
0
$123,555
71,675
54,989
240,174
(13,671)
0
$184,061
109,059
53,252
232,311
(13,135)
0
$85,860
110,636
54,996
239,098
(12,669)
0
$97,227
88,411
53,211
231,728
(11,806)
0
$141,823
81,739
54,964
237,776
(13,722)
0
$1,261,487
275,366
50,562
238,594
(35,737)
$2,068,919
786,050
377,039
1,660,109
(117,584)
0
502,718
476,722
565,548
477,922
458,772
502,581
1,790,271
4,774,534
(59,623)
(41,606)
60,422
(29,586)
619,499
619,499
587,388
628,897
587,943
610,100
619,499
4,272,825
17,855
0
9,851
2,530
21,110
2,528
53,874
18,148
0
11,553
2,530
21,110
2,476
55,817
14,604
0
10,718
2,448
21,110
2,589
51,469
16,343
0
10,171
2,530
21,110
2,492
52,646
14,880
0
10,397
2,451
21,110
2,360
51,198
16,269
0
10,166
2,530
21,110
2,505
52,580
18,094
0
5,929
2,530
26,068
5,304
57,925
116,193
0
68,786
17,547
152,730
20,253
375,510
$1,176,091
$1,152,038
$1,204,405
$1,159,465
$1,097,913
$1,165,261
$2,467,695
$9,422,869
$59.88
$4.15
18.12
2.44
1.59
2.47
$88.65
$56.41
$4.17
18.23
4.40
1.60
2.64
$87.47
$58.59
$4.04
17.64
7.28
1.60
2.31
$91.47
$55.93
$4.30
18.71
7.67
1.65
2.47
$90.73
$56.53
$4.39
19.12
6.32
1.74
2.48
$90.58
$56.24
$4.11
17.79
5.09
1.58
2.35
$87.16
$126.51
$3.40
16.05
16.12
1.75
2.14
$165.97
$68.38
$4.07
17.90
7.21
1.65
2.40
$101.60
Expected Unit Price
Budget Variance
$100.06
($11.40)
$85.57
$1.89
$79.64
$11.83
$82.28
$8.44
$79.59
$11.00
$73.73
$13.43
$84.86
$81.10
$83.75
$17.86
Hedge Settlement
Unit Cost, $/MWh
$1,686
$0.04
$188,313
$4.54
$135,648
$3.27
$200,335
$4.82
$171,267
$4.12
$117,464
$2.82
PJM Electric Cost
60 Day Reconciliation (Included in Energy & Ancillary Above)
Bilateral Electric Cost
(3,820)
(74,212)
Other Charges
WGES Service Fee
WGES Cost to Carry
WGES Cost of Collateral
WGES Fee for PES Block Delivery
Renew able (RPS Requirement)
Other Fees (MD PSC)
Subtotal
Total Supply Cost
Unit Costs, $/MWh
Energy
Transmission
Capacity
Ancillary Charges & Credit
Renew able (RPS Requirement)
Other
Total Supply Cost
6
($1,276,580)
($30.66)
($461,867)
($4.98)
II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
7
MWh
ESMEC- ET -Current Electric Hedge Status, 2/18/2014
Based on FY 2013 Gross Annual MWhs of 168,000
18,000
FY
FY
FY
FY
2014
2015
2016
2017
Actual Hedge %'s
Peak
Off
87%
67%
83%
67%
42%
34%
21%
34%
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Total Load
8
Max Hedge
Purchased
Min Hedge
Total
79%
76%
38%
26%
ESMEC-ET Scheduled Block Purchases
As of 2/18/2014
Term
FY 2016
7/15 - 6/16
Volume, MW
Type
Delivery
Execution
Market (WH)
2/14/14 Close
($/MW)
5.0
ATC
WH
By June 2014
$37.71
Market as of 1/6/14
$36.85
Note: Evaluate congestion price periodically prior to purchase
9
ESMEC-ET Proforma Electric Hedge Status, 6/30/2014
MWh
Based on FY 2013 Gross Annual MWhs of 168,000
Purchased & Scheduled Hedge %'s
Peak
Off
Total
FY 2015
83%
67%
76%
FY 2016
63%
67%
65%
FY 2017
21%
34%
26%
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
10
Total Load
Max Hedge
Purchased
Scheduled
Min Hedge
11
12
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM Western Hub, 1998 - 1/2014
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Avg-Monthly
13
Avg-12 Mo
Peak Premium Ratio, 1998 - 1/2014
550%
500%
Jul '99 = 480.7%
450%
400%
350%
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Avg-Monthly
14
Avg-12 Mo
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM DPL Zone Basis, 1999 - 1/2014
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
-$5
Avg Monthly
15
Avg-12 Mo
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
16
ESMEC Electric Supply Portfolio
Budget, Actual and Billing Rates
($ kwh)
FY 2007
Portfolio budget rate
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
$0.0912
$0.0900
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.0950
$0.0840
$0.0870
$0.0830
Portfolio actual/forecast cost$0.0876
$0.0993
$0.0976
$0.0919
$0.0940
$0.0810
$0.0810
$0.0975
$0.0093
($0.0024)
($0.0081)
($0.0010)
($0.0030)
($0.0060) $0.0145
Actual o/(u) budget
($0.0036)
FY 2015
$0.0760 (Revised)
Approximate Weighted Average Billing Rates (1):
Billing months:
Jul - Oct
Nov - Feb
Mar - Jun
W/A billing rate
$0.0992
$0.0844
$0.0814
$0.0992
$0.0844
$0.0844
$0.1094
$0.0944
$0.0944
$0.1094
$0.0944
$0.0944
$0.0954
$0.0804
$0.0804
$0.0944
$0.0794
$0.0794
$0.0954
$0.0794
$0.0794
$0.0894
$0.0774
$0.0000
Approved
Approved
TBD
$0.0885
$0.0894
$0.0995
$0.0995
$0.0855
$0.0845
$0.0849
$0.0000
TBD
FY 2014 if W/A Rate held at $.0774 thru June 2014
$0.0815
(1) Includes primary (GSP), secondary (LGS, SGS) and outdoor lighting (OL/ORL) rate schedules
Preliminary and forecast rates in blue
17
ESMEC-ET
Electric Supply Rates ($/Kwh)
$/kwh
$0.12000
$0.11500
$0.11000
$0.10500
$0.10000
$0.09500
$0.09000
$0.08500
$0.08000
$0.07500
$0.07000
FY07
FY08
Portfolio Cost
18
FY09
FY10
Weighted Average Billing Rate
FY11
FY12
DPL Standard Offer Service Rate
FY13
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Average Working Capital (W/C) Balances Held with Supplier
$/KWh
$0.120
$1,400,000
Jan '14 $.166 KWh
$1,200,000
$0.110
$1,000,000
$0.100
$800,000
$0.090
$600,000
$0.080
$400,000
$0.070
$200,000
$0.060
$0
$0.050
W/C Avg Balance
19
Actual Cost ($/KWh)
Billing Rate($/KWh)
ESMEC Electric Supply Portfolio
Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ kwh)
Fiscal Year 2014
Billing Period
Summer
Winter
Spring
Status
Approved
Approved
TBD
Supplier Billing Months
July 2013 Oct 2013
Nov 2013 Feb 2014
Mar 2014 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning:
Meter Read Ending:
Jun 2013
Oct 2013
Oct 2013
Feb 2014
Feb 2014
Jun 2014
FY 2014
W/A Billing
Rate
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS)
$0.0900
$0.0780
TBD
TBD
Primary (GSP)
$0.0875
$0.0755
TBD
TBD
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL)
$0.0750
$0.0630
TBD
TBD
$0.0894
$0.0774
TBD
TBD
Weighted Average Rate
Estimated Portfolio Cost
20
Current Portfolio Forecast Rate
$0.0975
Original Portfolio Budget Rate
$0.0830
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Billing Rate Alternatives
1A
1B
2A
Increase Billing Rates Starting March 2014
- Different Summer/Non Summer Rates for
FY 2015
Increase Billing Rates Starting March 2014
- Same Summer/Non Summer Rates for
FY 2015
Hold Current Billing Rate thru June 2014
Different Summer/Non Summer Rates for
FY 2015
End of Period
Hold Current Billing Rate thru June 2014
Same Summer/Non Summer Rates for FY
2015
End of Period
End of Period
Fiscal
Billing
Billing
Billing Rate
Average W/C
Billing Rate
Average W/C
Billing Rate
Average W/C
Billing Rate
Average W/C
Year
Season
Months
$/KWh
Balance
$/KWh
Balance
$/KWh
Balance
$/KWh
Balance
FY2014 Winter
Nov-Feb
$0.0774
$422,390 as of Jan '14
$0.0774
$422,390 as of Jan '14
$0.0774
$422,390 as of Jan '14
$0.0774
$422,390 as of Jan '14
FY 2014 Spring
Mar -Jun
$0.0900
($596,669)
$0.0900
($596,669)
$0.0774
($1,110,384)
$0.0774
($1,110,384)
FY 2015 Summer Jul - Oct
$0.1000
$582,758
$0.0850
($24,308)
$0.1000
($95,773)
$0.0900
($500,484)
FY 2015 Winter
Nov-Feb
$0.0780
$1,082,317
$0.0850
$547,481
$0.0850
$673,905
$0.0900
$330,211
FY 2015 Spring
Mar-Jun
$0.0780
$1,393,532
$0.0850
$1,230,997
$0.0850
$1,357,421
$0.0900
$1,279,656
Actuals = Black
Alternatives = Blue
21
End of Period
2B
Appendix
22
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
RLR, 7/13 - 6/14 (through 11/13)
kW
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Hourly Load
23
30 Day Average
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
RLR, 7/12 - 6/13 (through 6/13)
kW
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Hourly Load
24
30 Day Average
ESMEC-ET - Open Block Purchase Transaction Log
As of:
2/18/14
Purchased Thru Pepco Energy Services
#
5
Purchase
Date
11/23/09
Start
Jul-13
Stop
Jun-14
Type
ATC
Delivery
Point
WH
Index
Settle
RT
Size
(MW)
5.00
Price
($MWh)
$57.00
WH
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DPL
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
DA
5.00
5.00
3.00
5.00
3.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
$56.40
$53.95
$49.15
$41.90
$52.65
$45.55
$50.00
$46.80
$40.25
Purchased Thru Washington Gas Energy Services
7
9
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
9/12/11
11/14/11
9/19/12
9/19/12
3/15/13
4/10/13
7/2/13
11/5/13
11/20/13
Legend
ATC = Around the Clock
WH = West Hub
DA = Day Ahead
RT = Real Time
25
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jul-14
Jul-16
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Peak
ATC
Peak
ATC
Peak
ATC
Peak
Peak
ATC
ESMEC Electric Mark to Market, 2/18/2014
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
($100,000)
($200,000)
($300,000)
($400,000)
($500,000)
Monthly
26
Cumulative
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio
Capacity and Transmission Tag Summary (MW)
PJM Year (1)
11/12 12/13 13/14
Unforced Capacity Obligation
35.7
33.8
31.4
Calendar Year
2012
2013
2014
Transmission Capacity
(1) PJM Year June 1 - May 31
27
30.0
26.7
24.3
12/13 o/(u) 11/12
MW
%
(1.9)
-5.4%
2013 o/(u) 2012
MW
%
(3.3)
-11.0%
13/14 o/(u) 12/13
MW
%
(2.4)
-7.0%
2014 o/(u) 2013
MW
%
(2.4)
-9.0%
Impact of Inc/(decr) in UCAP MW
Incr/(Decr) in
Incr/(Decr) in
12/13 Year
13/14 Year
Cost ($)
Cost ($)
($119,381)
($214,791)
Impact of Inc/(decr) in Trans Cap MW
Incr/(Decr) in
Incr/(Decr) in
Cal Year
Cal Year
2013 Cost ($)
2014 Cost ($)
($74,246)
($57,451)
PJM - DPL Capacity Prices
$/MWD
$300
$248.30
$250
$197.16
$200
$196.54
$187.37
$171.24
$166.08
$150.53
$142.99
$150
$118.89
$116.15
$100
$50
$15.00
$0
06/07 Pre RPM
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
Final Zonal Net Load Prices through 13/14, PJM Base Residual Clearing Prices thereafter
28
16/17
ESMEC-ET
Maryland Renewable Portfolio Requirements
Based on Chapters 583, 556 and 653 enacted May 22, 2012
Required %'s Based on Grandfathered %'s per SB791
Report as of : 1/31/14
Tier I
29
Compliance
Year
Usage
(MWh)
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
173,040
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
171,402
Total
Market
Required REC
Cost
% Amount Quantity
($/MWh)
(net)
6.40%
8.00%
10.00%
10.10%
12.20%
12.55%
14.90%
16.20%
16.50%
16.85%
18.00%
18.00%
Actuals in Blue
Estimates in Red
SREC (minimum portion of Tier 1)
Market
Cost ($)
11,075 $ 4.15 $ 45,959
13,712 $ 15.66 $ 214,738
17,140
$
17,312
$
20,911
$
21,511
$
25,539
$
27,767
$
28,281
$
28,881
$
30,852
$
30,852
$
-
Total
Market
Required
REC
Cost
% Amount
Quantity ($/MWh)
0.1000%
0.2000%
0.3000%
0.4000%
0.5000%
0.5500%
0.9000%
1.2000%
1.5000%
1.8500%
2.0000%
2.0000%
Market
Cost ($)
173 $ 170.00 $ 29,417
343 $ 170.00 $ 58,277
514
$
686
$
857
$
943
$
1,543
$
2,057
$
2,571
$
3,171
$
3,428
$
3,428
$
-
Tier 2
Required Total Market
Market
%
REC
Cost
Cost ($)
Amount Quantity ($/MWh)
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4,326 $ 0.69 $ 2,985
4,285 $ 2.05 $ 8,784
4,285
$
4,285
$
4,285
$
4,285
$
4,285
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total Market
Cost ($)
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
78,361
281,799
-