Transcript 8.2 - MollyMcDuffiesPortfolio

8.2 Measuring Public Opinion
In the election of 1948, Harry S. Truman
defeated Thomas Dewey, yet pollsters were
so confident Dewey would win that
newspapers had already begun printing the
headline ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ for the
morning paper . . .
How might we account for this?
What are some of the short-comings of public
opinion polls?
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If public policy is to reflect public opinion,
one needs to be able to find the answers to
these questions:
1. What are people’s opinions on “x” issue?
2. How many people share this opinion?
3. How firmly do they hold that view?
In other words, we have to be able to measure
public opinion.
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Elections
Interest Groups
The Media
Personal Contacts
Polls
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Votes cast for the various candidates are
regularly taken as evidence of the people’s
approval or rejection of the stands taken by
those candidates and their parties however . . .
This isn’t actually the case – individuals vote for
candidates for a variety of reasons (some being
better than others)
◦ Example - voting for Barack Obama because he is
‘fine’? Problematic, Sydney. ;)
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Interest Groups – Private organizations whose members
share certain views and objectives and work to shape
public policy.
Interest groups are a chief means by which public opinion
is made known, they present their views (exert their
pressures) through:
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Lobbyists
Letters
Telephone calls
Political campaigns
Demonstrations
However . . . it’s difficult to discern whether the existence
of an interest group necessarily implies that there is a
great deal of support for it.
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The media is frequently described as a
“mirror” of public opinion, however . . .
It’s probably more accurately described as a
molder of public opinion and is often found
to be very biased and inaccurate.
What does it mean to be ‘biased’?
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Most politicians have frequent and wide-ranging
contacts; through these contacts, they try to gauge
public opinion
Politicians receive hundreds of calls, e-mails, and
letters every day and many make frequent trips “back
home” but . . .
Can politicians truly find the “voice of the people?”
Many do not . . . instead, they find the voice of only
those who they want to find – those who support
them and agree with their opinions.
So how is public opinion best measured??
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Polls – Devices that attempt to collect
information by asking people questions.
◦ Straw Votes – Polls that seek to read the public’s
mind simply by asking the same question of a large
number of people
 Highly unreliable
 Rests on the false assumption that a relatively large
number of people will be representative of a broad
range or a reasonable spectrum of the public opinion
What’s an ‘assumption’?
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Scientific polling did not begin until the
1930’s
◦ Extremely complex five-step process
1.
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Defining the universe
Constructing a sample
Preparing valid questions
Interviewing
Analyzing and reporting findings
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Universe – A term which refers to the whole population
that the poll aims to measure
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Constructing a Sample
◦ In most cases, it is not possible to interview a complete universe
because it is too large (i.e., every person of voting age in America)
◦ Because of this we must construct a sample, a representative slice
of the total universe.
 Samples must be random, that is, each member of the universe must
have a mathematically equal chance of being selected; most samples
 The Law of Probability
1.
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If you flip a coin 1,000 times, you’ll get ‘heads’ 500 times
No matter how often you perform this test, the results will be the same
So . . . If the sample is of sufficient size (approx. 1,500 people) and is
properly selected at random, the results can be generalized and will be
accurate to within a small and predictable margin of error (+ or – 3%)
What does it mean to ‘generalize’ findings?
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Wording can affect the reliability of any poll
◦ Questions should be ambiguous and not leading
◦ Questions should be free of ‘loaded’ or emotionally
charged words
Example
Leading Question –
“Should local taxes be reduced?”
Better Question –
“Should the city’s police force be increased to fight the rising tide of crime in our community?
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Interviews can be conducted in two ways:
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2.
Door-to-door, face-to-face
Over the phone/internet
An interviewers tone of voice or any emphasis he or she
may place on a particular word or question can influence a
person’s response
If questions are not carefully worded, responses could
come in the form of snap judgments
In addition, if the person being polled thinks that the
person polling them is looking or ‘fishing’ for a particular
response, that is likely the response they will give whether
it’s truly how they feel or not!
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Major national polls are fairly reliable, but they are far
from perfect . . . and their force is tempered by a
number of factors, for example, interest groups
One weakness of polls is that they are sometime said
to shape the opinions they are trying to measure
◦ They often create a ‘bandwagon’ effect
 Some voters, wanting to side with the winner, will jump on the
bandwagon of the candidate who is ahead in the polls
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Polls also have difficult measuring:
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Intensity – strength of feeling with which an opinion is held
Stability – relative permanence of an opinion
Relevance – how important a particular opinion is to a person who holds it
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Why are interest groups uncertain gauges for
measuring public opinion?
What is the major problem with the straw vote
polling technique?
How is that a random sample gives a fairly accurate
representation of public opinion?
For what reasons is public opinion measured?
List two good reasons for following polls during a
presidential campaign.
How might the Framers of the Constitution have
viewed public opinion polls?
What positive and/or negative effects might there
be if polls were taken among student voters before
a student government election?
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The class will be divided into five groups
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Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
Opinions
Opinions
Opinions
Opinions
Opinions
on
on
on
on
on
Cornell note-taking
longer school days in exchange for three-day weekends
legalizing gay marriage
the universal healthcare initiative
lowering the drinking age
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Decide on a sample size and composition (a way to make the assignment
random) while remaining representative of our ‘universe’ (our classroom)
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Phrase three ambiguous questions to determine the opinions of the
opposite group on your topic
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Conduct your poll and tabulate the results
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Present your findings to the class
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Does our ‘universe’ like Cornell note-taking? Do we prefer some other method?
Does our ‘universe’ support the establishment of a three-day weekend? Are we willing to
accept longer school days in exchange for this?
Does our ‘universe’ support or oppose gay marriage? Universal healthcare? A lower
drinking age?