Opportunities and challenges for PV utility scale projects (MEA Region)

Ronald Saade – April 2014

Brief on Z-One Holding

Z-ONE Holding provides Integrated Value-Chain Solutions in the field of PV SOLAR ENERGY.

Z-One ‘s objective is to conserve its unique position of servicing the complete value chain related to PhotoVoltaics (PV) through relationships and partnerships strictly with international market leaders of the PV industry.

As such therefore, not only do we get involved with existing and available opportunities, but we also have to face and handle the relevant challenges on several fronts: Political, Regulatory,

Financial and equally importantly, Technical.

We operate and cover the whole MEA Region from our headquarters in Dubai - UAE, as well as from other operational subsidiaries in Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey.

Subsidiaries & Joint Ventures

Basis for Growth Potential

Solar Irradiation Around the World

• Today, solar energy is less than 0.1 % of global energy • The “sunny” parts of the world are ready for photovoltaic • Cost reduction of cells and modules will drive photovoltaic • Photovoltaic will be one of the most economic energy sources with a large market potential Source: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; http://www.ecmwf.int/ .

Basis for Growth Potential

MW 3500.000

3000.000

2500.000

2000.000

1500.000

1000.000

500.000

OECD Pacific Africa Middle East China India Developing Asia Latin America North America Transition Economies Europe

0.000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: Greenpeace/EPA Solar Generation VI, 2010.

Evolution of Cumulative Installed Capacity

(Accelerated scenario)

Opportunities in MEA Region

Opportunities in MEA Region

Opportunities in MEA Region

• • • • • •

High Irradiation Available Land Power Shortages Very low electricity penetration rate Huge off-grid market High appetite for international financing institutions to the African market And in the Gulf some differences are:

•

The high potential growth in electricity consumption, and

•

The cheap(er) financing due to political stability

Challenges in MEA Region

Already stated above……challenges on several fronts:

Political, Regulatory, Financial, and equally importantly, Technical.

CHALLENGES POLITICAL/REGULATORY

•

Regulatory Framework: Lack of Availability of FIT/PPA regulation: Countries having already an established regulation: Jordan, Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa & Uganda ONLY

•

Region Stability

CHALLENGES FINANCIAL

•

Local banks for example are not familiar with PV sector - high interest rate for debt financing due to political instability (1 to 100M $ projects)

•

We can also argue that as developers “Only thing holding cleantech back is the financing,” financiers respond that there’s a lack of supply and the market is not scalable enough for a feasible business case, too high barriers of entry, not enough economies of scale, no sufficient standards have been developed…

CHALLENGES FINANCIAL

CHALLENGES TECHNICAL

Are deserts the right place for PV modules, Inverters…etc?

Benefits: Large and low cost area High annual irradiance Problems: High temperature Sand storms Efficiency

( for modules at least, we already have “desert qualified” standards)

CHALLENGES DEGRADATION EFFECTS

1 Degradation: The abrasive effect produced by sand moved by wind is a negative effect 2 Other typical problems: a) High temperature decrease efficiency due to negative thermal coefficient b) High irradiance produce strong hot-spot effects (and subsequent ones) c) High temperature may decrease the adhesion of the layers of modules 3 Other problems: a) Wind (standard test up to 130 km/h) b) Flying stones: comparable to hail c) Dune movement d) Inadequate O&M (cleaning) e) Structural Strength of Mounting Systems

CHALLENGES HIGH TEMPERATURE EFFECTS

We analyzed the effect of a long exposure to high temperature. In particular some results of adhesion between encapsulant and backsheet/glass are compared after 3 consecutive periods of 1000 hours exposure to 85°C. (These parameters have a key role on the quality of the lamination process and materials).

We can see in the next graph the strong degradation effect on adhesion due to the above described test conditions (peel test) The «Peel» test consists in pulling the backsheet with growing force to determine the minimum necessary value ( in N) to delaminate (disconnect ) the different layers.

CHALLENGES HIGH TEMPERATURE EFFECTS

Backsheet 2 (1000h ) Backsheet 2 (0h ) Peel distance (mm) Degradation time

CHALLENGES HIGH TEMPERATURE EFFECTS

d

300 280 260 240 220 200 180 0

Module Power vs Temperature

44°C 60°C experimental data Linear behavior Non linear behavior 80°C 10 20 30 40 50 60

Module Temperature [°C]

70 80 90 100

< of 1w for each degree >

CHALLENGES HIGH TEMPERATURE EFFECTS

HOT SPOT EFFECT: Low quality modules/backsheet are almost always damaged

CHALLENGES HIGH TEMPERATURE EFFECTS

Mechanical stress produced by hot spot can crash cells, if the cells are too thin or badly laminated

CHALLENGES CONCLUSION

Challenges are many, but so what? our area offers many opportunities; So in conclusion, we would love to hear from you and discuss:

• FINANCE & PROJECT DEVELOPMENT ----------  EMERGING POWER • ENGINEERING DESIGN & CONSULTANCY ----------  SOLARPRAXIS • ENGINEERING PROCUREMENT CONSTRUCTION ----------  Juwi • RAW MATERIALS & SYSTEMS ----------  Disctech • TESTING, CERTIFICATION & STANDARDS ----------  T ÙV InterCert

Experienced, world renown experts with references over the MEA region as well as globally