Transcript Sec. 3.3 PowerPoint Notes

CHAPTER 3: EXAMINING
RELATIONSHIPS
SECTION 3.3:
LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION
Correlation measures the strength and direction
of the linear relationship
 Least-squares regression
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Method for finding a line that summarizes that
relationship between two variables in a specific
setting.
Regression line
Describes how a response variable y changes as an
explanatory variable x changes
 Used to predict the value of y for a given value of x
 Unlike correlation, requires an explanatory and
response variable.

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LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION LINE
(LSRL)
If you believe the data show a linear trend, it would
be appropriate to try to fit an LSRL to the data
 We will use the line to predict y from x, so you want
the LSRL to be as close as possible to all the points in
the vertical direction
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That’s because any prediction errors we make are errors
in y, or the vertical direction of the scatterplot
Error = actual – predicted
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LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION LINE
(LSRL)

The least squares regression line of y on x is the
line that makes the sum of the squares of the vertical
distances of the data points from the line as small as
possible
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LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION LINE
(LSRL)
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The equation for the LSRL is 𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥
𝑦 is used because the equation is representing a prediction
of y
To calculate the LSRL you need the means and standard
deviations of the two variables as well as the correlation
The slope is b and the y-intercept is a
br

sy
sx
a  y  bx
Every least-squares regression line passes through the
point 𝑥, 𝑦
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EXAMPLE 1 – FINDING THE LSRL

Using the data from example 1 (the number of
student absences and their overall grade) in
section 3.2, write the least squares line.
x  5.6
sx  4.9

𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥
br
sy
sx
a  y  bx
y  74.1
s y  24.9
r = -.946
FINDING THE LSRL AND OVERLAYING IT ON YOUR
SCATTERPLOT
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Press the STAT key
Scroll over to CALC
 Use option 8
 After the command is on your home screen:
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Put the following L1, L2, Y1
 To get Y1, press VARS, Y-VARS, Function
 Press enter
 The equation is now stored in Y1
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Press zoom 9 to see the scatterplot with the LSRL
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USE THE LSRL TO PREDICT
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With an equation stored on the calculator it makes it easy
to calculate a value of y for any known x.
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Using the trace button
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Using the table
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2nd Trace, Value
x = 18
2nd Graph
Go to 2nd window if you need change the tblstart
Example 2 
Use the LSRL to predict the overall grade for a student who has had 18
absences. Also, interpret the slope and intercept of the regression line.
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A student who has had 18 absences is predicted to have an overall
grade of about 14%
The slope is -4.81 which in terms of this scenario means that for each
day that a student misses, their overall grade decreases about 4.81
percentage points
The intercept is at 101.04 which means that a student who hasn’t
missed any days is predicted to have a grade of about 101%.
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READING MINITAB OUTPUT
THE ROLE OF R2 IN REGRESSION.

Coefficient of determination
The proportion of the total sample variability that is
explained by the least-squares regression of y on x
 It is the square of the correlation coefficient (r), and
is therefore referred to as r2
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In the student absence vs. overall grade example, the
correlation was r = -.946
 The coefficient of determination would be r2 = .8949
 This means that about 89% of the variation in y is
explained by the LSRL
 In other words, 89% of the data values are accounted for
by the LSRL
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FACTS ABOUT LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION
1.
Distinction between explanatory and response
variables is essential
a.
If we reversed the roles of the two variables, we get
a different LSRL
There is a close connection between correlation
and the slope of the regression line
2.
br
a.
3.
sx
A change of one standard deviation in x
corresponds to r standard deviations in y
The LSRL always passes through the point
a)
4.
sy
We can describe regression entirely in terms of
basic descriptive measures
The coefficient of determination is the fraction
of the variation in values of y that is explained
by the least-squares regression of y on x
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RESIDUALS
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Residuals
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Deviations from the overall pattern
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Measured as vertical distances
Difference between an observed value of the response
variable and the value predicted by the regression
line
Residual = Observed y – predicted y
The mean of the least-squares residuals is always
zero
 If you round the residuals you will end up with a
value very close to zero
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Getting a different value due to rounding is known as
roundoff error
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RESIDUAL PLOT
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A residual plot is a scatterplot of the regression
residuals against the explanatory variable
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Residual plots help us assess the fit of a regression
line
Below is a residual plot that shows a linear
model is a good fit to the original data
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Reason
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There is a uniform scatter of points
RESIDUAL PLOT
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Below are two residual plots that show a linear
model is not a good fit to the original data
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Reasons
Curved pattern
 Residuals get larger with larger values of x
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INFLUENTIAL OBSERVATIONS:
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Outlier
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An observation that lies outside the overall pattern in
the y direction of the other observations.
Influential Point
An observation is influential if removing it would
markedly change the result of the LSRL
 Are outliers in the x direction of a scatterplot
 Have small residuals, because they pull the
regression line toward themselves.
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If you just look at residuals, you will miss influential points.
Can greatly change the interpretation of data.
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LOCATION OF INFLUENTIAL
OBSERVATIONS
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Child 19
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Outlier
Child 18
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Influential
Point
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SEE ALL OF THE RESIDUALS AT ONCE
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The calculator calculates the residuals for all points
every time it runs a linear regression command
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To see this, press 2nd STAT and under NAMES scroll down
to RESID
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The residuals will be in the order of the data
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