Transcript Ted Abernathy - Watauga County Economic Development

[email protected]
I Have Nothing
Profound the Say
Think
…except, many of the things we
all used to know we knew, have
changed
Today’s New “Place” Reality
•
•
•
•
•
•
The economy changed
The competition changed
Locational factors changed
The U.S. workforce has changed
The talent demands changed
Customer (talent & companies)
demands/expectations changed
• The pace of change and everything
else changed
How Is The Economy?
Corporate Profits at All Time High
Stock Market at All Time High
Housing Price Index- Inflation Adjusted
Source: Calculatedriskblog.com
Stagnation of wages and
slow growth of jobs
Wide disparity between
people and places
So What Are Some
Economic Facts?
Annual U.S. Employment Change
3,000,000
2,331,000
2,193,000
2,103,000
2,484,000
2,071,000
2,019,000
2,000,000
1,022,000
1,115,000
1,000,000
62,000
0
-532,000
-1,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,757,000
-3,000,000
-4,000,000
-3,617,000
-5,000,000
-5,052,000
-6,000,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: BLS Nov 2013
2013
Annual U.S. Employment Change By Sector
March 2013 to March 2014
800,000.00
667,000
700,000.00
600,000.00
529,000
500,000.00
406,000
400,000.00
334,000
300,000.00
200,000.00
151,000
72,000
100,000.00
29,000
57,000
0.00
-19,000
Government
Leisure/Hosp
Ed/Health Services
Prof/Biz Services
Financial
Information
Trade/Trans/Util
Manufacturing
Construction
-100,000.00
Source: BLS April 2014
Southern States 1-Year
Employment Changes Feb 2013 to Feb 2014
3.0%
2.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.5%
1.4%
1.2%
1.4%
1.2% 1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.5%
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA
MD
MO
MS
NC
OK
SC
TN
TX
VA
WV
Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Feb 2013- Feb 2014
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes
350,000
314,200
300,000
250,000
211,500
200,000
150,000
100,000
56,000
46,400
50,000
32,000
14,30011,600
9,900 7,600
0
4,900
27,500
20,200
37,700
1,900
-5,800
-1,800
-50,000
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA MD MO MS NC OK
SC
TN
TX
VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, March 2014, Measured Feb 2013 to Feb 2014
NC Employment Change By Sector
Feb 2013 to Feb 2014
25,000
19,000
20,000
15,000
11,600
10,000
5,000
5,400
5,300
2,800
2,100
0
-600
-2,900
Government
Leisure/Hosp
Ed/Health Services
Prof/Biz Services
Financial
Trade/Trans/Util
Manufacturing
Construction
-5,000
Source: BLS April 2014
NC Employment Growth
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Jan Annual Employment
Source:NCESC.com
“Everyone
has a plan
‘till they
get hit in
the mouth”
Mike Tyson
The Punch- Job Change 1990 to 2012
200,000
182,905
The loss of about 80% of our traditional
manufacturing jobs
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
92,531
100,000
1990
86,962
2012
80,000
60,000
40,000
30,685
30,229
16,530
20,000
6,119
8,338
0
Textiles
Tobacco
App/Cut Sew
Furniture
Source: NCESC.com
NC Employment Changes By Sector
2000-2012
50%
35%
40%
18%
20%
0%
3%
1%
1%
0%
-10%
-9%
-20%
-30%
-13%
-30%
-40%
-26%
-18%
-42%
Accom/Food
Art/Enter
Health
Education
Prof/Tech
Real Estate
Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and
selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted
Finance/Ins
Info
Trans/Ware
Retail
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Construction
Mining
Agriculture
Total
-50%
28% 28%
27%
30%
10%
40%
Source: QCEW County Sector Data
Employment Change
January 2008 to January 2014
60,000
54,730
NC Total 60,557
50,000
44,050
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
3,714
0
-763
-10,000
-20,000
-10,393
-12,276
-18,505
-30,000
West
Charlotte
East
Northeast Southeast
Triad
Triangle
Source: NCESC.com
Southern States Per Capita Income
1990-2012 (% Different from Nation Change)
50%
U.S. Change 120.6%
39.2%
40%
Inflation 73%
31.5%
30%
20%
10%
22.0%
20.5%
7.5%
19.7%
11.2%
8.5%
7.5%
18.2%
6.7%
1.5%
0%
-4.3%
-5.1%
-10%
-13.0%
-10.7%
-20%
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA
MD
MO
MS
NC
OK
SC
TN
TX
VA
Source: bber, University of New Mexico
WV
NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S.
1990-2012
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
United States
$20,000
NC
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
Source: bber, University of New Mexico
GDP/Capita Changes in the NC 19972011
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
NC
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
USA
Source: BEA, Oct 2012
2011
Contextualizing Change
A “Place-Based” Strategy
Choices of Intentional
Actions To Move From
Here To There
Where You Are,
Your Current
Reality
Goals
Context
Actions
Where You
Desire To Be
Compass
Change
Metrics
Leadership
Information Curation
Direction, or
Compass is
driven by the
Vision, Mission
and Core Values
of the
organization or
place
26
Context is
determined by the
conversion of
comparative and
longitudinal data
into information that
can be used as
knowledge
Change is the group of
factors, outside your
control, that influences
your future, global
trends, demographic
shifts, changing
technology
Action Plan
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
What actions will we undertake?
Who will be responsible for those actions?
What resources do we need to be successful?
Where will those resources come from?
When will each action start and be completed?
What results do we expect?
How will those results be evaluated, and;
How will we monitor the plan and continuously
update it?
“No one born after the turn of the
century has ever known anything but
a world uprooting its foundations,
overturning its values and toppling its
idols.”
Peter Drucker 1957
Big Trends
Urbanization
U.S. Population Concentration
Metro-Non-Metro
100%
90%
80%
Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities
of 1 million or more
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
In 2012 over 90% of GDP and
86% of all jobs are in
metropolitan areas
20%
10%
0%
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Metro
1960
1970
Non-Metro
1980
1990
2000
Source: Census
Southern States % of Population Rural &
Small
Cities
2010
80%
72%
67%
70%
61%
60%
59%
58%
54%
51%
50%
43%
45%
50%
44% 46%
46%
39%
40%
35%
30%
30%
25%
20%
20%
17%
13%
10%
0%
AL AR
FL
GA KY
LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV KS
IL
IA
NE
Source: U.S. Census 2010, Daily Yonder 2012
2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Of 366 Metropolitan Areas
Top Third (7)
Middle Third (3)
Bottom Third (4)
Of 576 Micropolitan Areas
Top Third (8)
Middle Third (4)
Bottom Third (14)
Source: Policom.com, 2013
Global Interdependence
State Goods % Exports Growth 2010-2013
60%
50%
53%
50%
40%
37%
35%
31%
30%
30%
29%
25%
25%
20%
32%
28%
18%
16%
9%
10%
5%
0%
0%
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA MD MO MS NC OK
SC
TN
TX
VA WV
Source:2010-2013 data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade
Technology
McKinsey & Company
Disruptive Technologies: May 2013
Energy
Advanced Materials
Mobile Internet
Next Generation Genomics
Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intel, 3D Printing
The Talent Bar Is
Rising
US Adults Years School Completed
80%
In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA
76%
70%
In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA
1940
60%
1950
50%
1960
40%
30%
20%
37%
31%
1970
31%
30%
26%
14%
1990
17%
15%
13%
1980
2000
2010
10%
5%
5%
0%
Less than HS
HS Grad
Some College
BA plus
Source: U.S. Census
Work Shifts
Creative
Work
Routine
Work
Routine
Work
Outsourced
Routine
Work
Machines
Source: National Center on Education and the
Economy, Tough Choices or Tough Times, 2007
“What is different now is the nature of
jobs going away has changed…the type
of jobs affected have moved up the
income distribution.”
Peter Diamond
MIT Economist
2010 Nobel Prize Winner
Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013
Local policy could be worsening the hollowing out of the job market.
Data Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Southern States
Percentage of New Jobs 2010-2013 Paying Middle Wage
35.0%
32.0%
30.0%
30.0%
29.0%
29.0%
24.0% 25.0%
25.0%
22.0%
22.0%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
22.0%
19.0%
17.0%
17.0%
14.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
AL
AR
FL
GA
KY
LA
MD MO
MS
NC
OK
SC
TN
TX
VA
WV
Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, 2013
So What…
th
24
June
and
th
25 at RTP
• Commercialization must come
from the top of the university.
• A culture of change towards
entrepreneurship and risk-taking
must occur on all levels of the
university.
• A centralized point of contact, for
industry looking for university
invention
• Restructure teaching structures
by pushing beyond the standard
seat-in-a-classroom, semesterorganized, graduate in four years
model
• Centers and programs that
stretch across traditional
academic boundaries
• Incubators and/or accelerators
for student and faculty startups,
and business plan competition
with sizable cash awards.
• Entrepreneurship programs
that permeate the university
with entrepreneurial
opportunities.
“Do what you
have, with
what you
have, where
you are.”
“ Leadership and
learning are
indispensable to
each other.”
John F. Kennedy
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