Transcript SESAME - UBC Blogs

SESAME
2000-2010
SURVIVALSEEDS
Cindy Bae (18214072)
Elly Jang (25693094)
Vicky Wu (15039076)
Ye(Laura) Zhang (83280123)
Amelia Zhu (37438090)
OUTLINEOFSESAME
• Introduction
• Sesame World Market Trend
- Production, Supply, Demand
- Price Pattern
- Market Concentration and Thickness of the Market
• Market Analysis
- Supply and Demand Shock
- Case Study Countries: Ethiopia, China, Japan
• Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
2
Calendar
Activity
Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Land clearing
& Preparation
Seeding/S
awing
Weed and
Pest Control
Harvesting
Threshing
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
3
SESAMEPROFILE
Growing Condition:
sandy loam soil with pH 5.5 – 8.0
area below 1,250 meters above sea level
temperature above 20 C
rainfall from 500 – 650 mms
Growing Distribution:
Developing countries produce 98% of world
sesame seed, because harvesting sesame is labor
intensive
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
4
WHERESESAMEGROWS
India
China
Sudan
Ethiopia
Burma
Uganda
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
5
SESAMEPROFILE
Sesame Usage:
Food (oil, seasoning), Pharmaceutical and Cosmetics
Health effect:
High in Vitamin E & B and Low in Cholesterol
High Anti-Oxidant
Lowering Blood Pressure
Bone and Respiratory Health
Cancer Prevention
Different type:
Oil Grade Sesame (White)
Food Grade Sesame (Black)
Sesame with higher oil content is considered of higher grade
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
6
SESAMEMARKET
World Production VS Supply VS Demand
4500000
Production
4000000
Supply
Demand
3500000
3000000
Growth Ratio, 2000-2010
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
Production
1.075 = 8%
Supply
1.114 = 11%
Demand
1.117 = 12%
Demand grows more rapidly than
supply and production
500000
0
2000
2001
2002
INTRODUCTION
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
WORLD MARKET TREND
2009
2010
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
7
SESAMEMARKET2000-2010
Top 5 Exporters Sesame Seed Real Price Pattern
$/tonne
Real Price - Main Exporters
2500
India
Sudan (former)
Ethiopia
2000
Nigeria
China
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
INTRODUCTION
Year
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
8
SESAMEMARKET2000-2010
Top 5 Importers Sesame Seed Real Price Pattern
$/tonne
Real Price - Main Importers
2500
China
Japan
Turkey
2000
Republic of Korea
Syrian Arab Republic
1500
1000
500
Year
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
9
BASELINERATIO2000-2010
Top 5 Exporters Price Growth Ratio Food Price Index Growth Ratio
India
Sudan (former)
Ethiopia
Nigeria
China
1.199429 = 20%
1.211999 = 21%
1.12072 = 12%
1.13141 = 13%
1.197077 = 20%
Top 5 Importers Price Growth Ratio
China
Japan
Turkey
Republic of Korea
Syrian Arab Republic
1.19384 = 20%
1.175218 = 18%
1.257159 = 26%
1.191829 = 19%
1.11697 = 12%
1.131868059 = 13%
Food Price Index Growth Ratio
1.131868059 = 13%
Sesame price had the same pattern with food price index, but
increased rapidly
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
10
SESAMESEED2000
Main
Tonne
producers
Main
Tonne
Exporters
Main
Tonne
Importers
China
811819
Sudan (former)
209949
Japan
164713
India
517800
India
183306
Egypt
85919
Myanmar
295515
China
103326
Republic of Korea
70118
Sudan (former)
282000
Myanmar
34400
United States of
America
49062
Uganda
97000
Nigeria
30200
China
37149
%top
producers/world
79%
%top
exporters/world
76%
%top
importers/world
62%
World
2535731
World
736800
World
658917
%production traded: 736800 / 2535731 = 29%
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
11
SESAMESEED2008
Main
Tonne
producers
Main
Tonne
Exporters
Main
Tonne
Importers
Myanmar
853390
India
194365
China
234044
India
640000
Ethiopia
130977
Japan
185105
China
586701
Myanmar
110000
Turkey
80194
Sudan (former)
350000
Sudan (former)
105541
Republic of Korea
63949
Ethiopia
186772
Nigeria
91400
Syrian Arab
Republic
43456
%top
producers/world
76%
%top
exporters/world
World
3465615
World
70%
%top
importers/world
66%
906549
World
923229
%production traded: 906549 / 3465615 = 29%
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
12
SESAMESEED2010
Main
Tonne
producers
Main
Tonne
Exporters
Main
Tonne
Importers
India
893000
India
321771
China
420635
Myanmar
880000
Ethiopia
228039
Japan
161433
China
587947
Nigeria
140800
Turkey
102058
Ethiopia
260534
Sudan (former)
138000
Republic of Korea
77747
Sudan (former)
248000
United Republic of
Tanzania
65708
Syrian Arab
Republic
52028
%top
producers/world
World
73%
%top
exporters/world
3931636
World
73%
%top
importers/world
70%
1231737
World
1166448
%production traded: = 1231737 / 3931636 = 31%
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
13
RATIO2000-2010
2000
2008
2010
Producer CR
(%top producers/world)
79%
76%
73%
Exporter CR
(%top producers/world)
76%
70%
73%
Importer CR
(%top producers/world)
62%
66%
70%
%production traded
29%
29%
31%
• Neither perfect thin nor thick market
Thin (10%) < Sesame (30%) < Thick (50%)
Moderate well traded; main producers are also main exporters
;market is concentrated; less price volatility
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
MARKETANALYSIS
World Price ↑
World Supply
(Quantity) ↑
Technology
Land Use
INTRODUCTION
Policy
World Demand
(Quantity) ↑↑
Oil Price
(2008)
WORLD MARKET TREND
Income
MARKET ANALYSIS
Economical
Crisis
CONCLUSION
Awareness
of Health
15
OILPRICE
Real Price - Main Exporters
2500
$/tonn
2000
India
1500
Sudan
(former)
1000
Ethiopia
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$/ton
2500
ne
Year
Real Price - Main Importers
2000
China
Japan
1500
Turkey
1000
Republic of Korea
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
High oil price in 2008 affected the high price in world sesame price.
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
16
CHANGEINGDP
World Demand for Sesame
1400000
1200000
1000000
TON
800000
Sesame
600000
400000
200000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
YEAR
As the income increased, food demand including sesame increase.
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
17
BYPRODUCTEFFECT
The sesame seed world demand shows a similar pattern with sesame oil demand
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
18
EXPORTERS
• MAJOR CHANGE
• COUNTRIES
ETHIOPIA
IMPORTERS
• MAJOR CHANGE
• COUNTRIES
CHINA
JAPAN
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
19
MAJOREXPORTERS
SESAME SEEDS
MAJOR EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS
2000
Ranked in
Order by
Countries
2008
2010
Ranked in Order
Exported
Exported
by Countries
Market Share
Market Share
(%)
(%)
Sudan
(Former)
India
China
Ranked in Order
by Countries
Exported
Market Share
(%)
28.49%
India
21.44%
India
26.12%
24.88%
14.02%
Ethiopia
Burma
14.45%
12.13%
Ethiopia
Nigeria
18.51%
11.43%
Myanmar
4.67%
Sudan (Former)
11.64%
Sudan (Former)
11.20%
Nigeria
4.10%
Nigeria
10.08%
United Republic of
Tanzania
5.33%
Top 3
67.40%
Top 3
48.02%
Top 3
56.07%
Top 5
76.16%
Top 5
69.75%
Top 5
72.61%
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
20
WORLDMARKET
MAJOR CHANGE ON EXPORTERS
India  (Stable) Large Land Usage + Low Productivity
Sudan (Decreased) Reduced Land Usage + Low Productivity;
Market Share: 28.49%  11.20%
Ethiopia  (Increased) Market Share:  18.51%
China  (Decreased) Market Share: 14.02% 
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
21
IMPORTERSOFETHIOPIA
SESAME SEEDS
2005
Ranked in Order by
Countries
Japan
United States
Egypt
Jordan
Greece
Saudi Arabia
Lebanon
Netherland
Switzerland
Other
TOTAL
INTRODUCTION
2011
Exported Market
Share (%)
26.11
25.92
19.53
10.68
8.45
2.63
1.91
1.39
1.32
2.07
100
WORLD MARKET TREND
Ranked in Order by
Countries
China
Turkey
Israel
Jordan
Greece
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
United States
Other
TOTAL
MARKET ANALYSIS
Exported Market
Share (%)
41.22
21.59
13.22
7.75
6.50
4.28
2.22
1.47
1.75
100
CONCLUSION
22
ETHIOPIA
REASONS FOR CHANGE
1. Target Market: Low Value Export Markets
a. Japan: strict standard on quality and food safety
b. USA & Europe: high food safety standards (organic certification) for
bakery applications
c. Substitute effect of Cotton seed (Profitable for farmers, 90% oil)
2. Strategic Policy:
a. ECX (Ethiopia Commodity Exchange from 2008)
b. Currency Depreciation (Positive correlation between export volume
and nominal exchange rate)
3. Competitor: Sudan
a. Access to sea port
b. Policy reason: Sudan benefits further from membership in the Pan-Arab
free trade area.
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
23
MAJORIMPORTERS
SESAME SEEDS
MAJOR IMPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS
2000
2008
2010
Ranked in Order
by Countries
Imported
Market
Share (%)
Ranked in Order
by Countries
Imported
Market
Share (%)
Ranked in Order
by Countries
Imported
Market
Share (%)
Japan
25.00%
China
25.35%
China
36.06%
Egypt
13.04%
Japan
20.05%
Japan
13.84%
South Korea
10.64%
Turkey
8.69%
Turkey
8.75%
United States
7.45%
South Korea
6.93%
South Korea
6.67%
China
5.64%
Syrian Arab
Republic
4.71%
Syrian Arab
Republic
4.46%
TOP 3
48.68%
TOP 3
54.09%
TOP 3
58.65%
TOP 5
61.76%
TOP 5
65.72%
TOP 5
69.78%
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
24
WORLDMARKET
MAJOR CHANGE ON IMPORTERS
Japan (Decreased) Market Share: 25.00%  13.84%
China  (Increased) Market Share: 5.64%  36.06%
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
25
CHINA
CHANGE IN IMPORT/EXPORT PATTERNS
2000
3RD LARGEST EXPORTER
2008
1ST LARGEST IMPORTER
2010
1ST LARGEST IMPORTER
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
26
CHINA
ECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL
1. Planting area
a) Poor Weather
2. Highest Productivity
a) Increased R&D
b) Improved Technology
c) Increased Labor Input
3. Different types of grade
a) Import Oil Grade (White)
b) Export Food Grade (Black)
CONSUMPTION >> PRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
27
EXPORTERSOFCHINA
POLICY & REGULATION
Exporters
No Tariff for African
countries
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Market
Share (%)
World
124908
210873
168883
249375
387610
48.5
1
Ethiopia
66995
109601
65398
57241
188143
9.8
2
Tanzania
14129
9460
10107
12066
37931
9.6
3
Mozambique
2609
5181
9786
25085
37078
9.0
4
Myanmar
4288
2500
17457
66595
34714
7.2
5
Sudan
19398
54722
13944
14219
27842
4.2
6
India
8557
10097
35820
48138
16234
2.8
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
28
EXPORTERSOFJAPAN
SESAME SEEDS
2005
Ranked in Order by
Countries
China
Nigeria
Guatemala
Tanzania
Paraguay
Burma
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Pakistan
Sudan
INTRODUCTION
Imported Market
Share (%)
26.23
19.94
10.61
7.09
5.56
4.67
4.56
4.02
3.08
2.72
WORLD MARKET TREND
2009
Ranked in Order by
Countries
Nigeria
Paraguay
Burma
Tanzania
China
Bolivia
Guatemala
Burkina Faso
Turkey
Sudan
MARKET ANALYSIS
Imported Market
Share (%)
22.28
16.57
9.59
9.10
8.02
7.48
6.56
6.50
3.19
3.17
CONCLUSION
29
JAPAN
REASONS FOR CHANGE
1. No Local Production, but High Consumption of Sesame
Seed
2. High quality oil for different usages
a. Food, Cosmetics, Pharmaceutical & Medication
Usage
3. Main Exporter: Nigeria
a. High Quality & High Oil Content
b. Minimum Barriers to Trade between Japan & Nigeria
4. POLICY & REGULATION
a. No tariff on sesame seed imports
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
30
MARKETANALYSIS
World Price ↑
World Supply
(Quantity) ↑
Technology
$/tonne
Land Use
World Demand
(Quantity) ↑↑
Oil Price
(2008)
Policy
Real Price - Main Exporters
$/tonne
Income
Economical
Crisis
Awareness
of Health
Real Price - Main Importers
2500
2500
2000
2000
India
1500
Sudan (former)
China
1500
1000
Ethiopia
1000
500
Nigeria
500
China
0
Japan
Turkey
Republic of Korea
Syrian Arab Republic
0
Year
Year
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
31
TAKE AWAY MASSAGE
Sesame market is filled with
potential; it is definitely a market
that’s worth investing in.
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
32
References
• http://www.atfp.org.ae/English/studies/Sudan-tp/sdntp-sesame2011.pdf
• http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/default.aspx
• http://www.ipmsethiopia.org/content/files/Documents/publications/MscTheses/FinalThesis_
KindieAysheshm.pdf
• http://www.unep-unctad.org/cbtf/events/kampala5/day2/23Sesame%20The%20underexploited%20organic%20oil%20seed%20crop%20paper%20Ol.pdf
• http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=8&hid=119
• http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=1efcbcc3-a8d6436f-9b20-d6f54e7cde34%40sessionmgr110&vid=14&hid=119
• http://www.tcboostproject.com/_resources/resource/NEEP%20Sesame%20
Market%20Intelligence%20Report.pdf
• http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2012
wesp_prerel.pdf
INTRODUCTION
WORLD MARKET TREND
MARKET ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION
33