Transcript No Slide Title

SUTRA: Sustainable
Urban Transportation
Final Review Gdansk,
June 23/24 2003
DDr. Kurt Fedra
[email protected]
ESS GmbH, Austria
http://www.ess.co.at
Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen
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Final Review
Presentation Overview
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Agenda and Schedule
SUTRA: an overview
Project Administration
Progress and Results
Outlook and Exploitation
Final Review
Agenda and Schedule
Morning session, 09:00-12:30
Introduction and framework
1 Introduction, overview
ESS
2 Framework: indicators and scenarios
FEEM
3 Framework: techno-economic modeling
UGE
The tools
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4 Transportation modeling
PTV
5 AQ modeling: emission and models
UAV
Final Review
Agenda and Schedule
Afternoon Session 14:00 - 17:00
Case Study Applications
7 Case study overview
8 Success stories
Analysis
9 Assessment and economics
10 Analysis and benchmarking
User Feedback
11 User perspective: Genoa
12 User perspective: Gdansk
13 General discussion
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UAV
CoG
TUG,FEEM
MEI, ARPAL
City of Genoa
City of Gdansk
Final Review
SUTRA Objectives
to develop a consistent and comprehensive
approach and planning methodology for
the analysis of urban transportation
problems to design strategies for
sustainable cities.
This includes the integration of:
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socio-economic
environmental and
technological concepts
multi-criteria assessment
policy level decision support.
Final Review
SUTRA methodology:
1. Indicator based approach
2. Scenario analysis
3. Simulation modeling, linking
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Techno-economic model
Transportation model
Emission model
Air quality models (street canyon, city level,
regional)
4. Multi-criteria assessment:
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Economics, environment, public health
Final Review
SUTRA methodology:
In other words:
SUTRA builds a MODEL SYSTEM
that processes a SCENARIO of
urban transportation into a set of
POLICY LEVEL INDICATORS –
but with all the underlying
technical detail in a consistent
and quantitative manner.
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Final Review
SUTRA: project facts
• Duration: July 2000 – June 2003,
36 months after contract amendment
• Partners: 11 (originally 12) from 10
countries incl. Argentina (UBG)
• Project web server:
http://www.ess.co.at/SUTRA/
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Final Review
SUTRA: project facts
• 13 major meetings of more than 2
partners incl. 7 full Board meetings
• 33 (of 35) Deliverables with a total of
more than 1,500 pages or 15 kg)
• eMail list: > 3,000 mail messages
• 127 data sets (of multiple files) in the
document tracking system
• > 400 MB of data and documents online at the project web server.
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Final Review
SUTRA: project status
WE ARE DONE …….
–Final Report, final version
–Final Cost Statements
–Deliverable updates
–Exploitation (continuing)
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Final Review
SUTRA: achievements
• Methodology development
• Tool integration, model cascade
(7 incl. fuzzy logic expert system)
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Case studies (6 out of 7)
Assessment economics, air quality, public health
Analysis, benchmarking
Reporting
Exploitation: on-line results, data
bases and analysis tools
Final Review
SUTRA: achievements
Exploitation:
• on-line results and reports
• City data base with 70+ European
cities 40+ indicators, on-line
benchmarking tool
• SUTRA cities: all indicators and
scenario results
• SUTRA cities: on-line city level air
quality modeling, population exposure
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Step 1:
• A framework of (79) indicators
that define a common
language, interface between the
models, and the basic results
for policy-level DSS
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
DRIVING FORCES (10)
• Demography (3)
• Land Use (3)
• Economy (4)
PRESSURES (26)
• Transportation Demand (3)
• Fossil Fuel Consumption (3)
• Pollutant Emissions (20)
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
STATE (23)
• Air Quality (21)
• Stress Indicators (2)
IMPACTS (14)
• Economic Costs (4)
• Health Impacts (5)
• Accidents (3)
• Time Loss (2)
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
RESPONSES (6)
• Car Occupancy (2)
• Public Transport Share (1)
• New Technology Penetration (3)
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Step 2: Modeling tools
1. MARKAL techno-economic energy
model
2. VISUM transportation model
3. TREM emission model
4. VADIS street canyon model
5. AirWare city-level air quality model
6. OFIS regional ozone model
7. Assessment tools: population
exposure, public health, economics
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Step 3: Common Scenarios
Defined as relative change
from the baseline
Defined in terms of:
Demographic, economic,
technological, land use
indicators
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Step 3: Common Scenarios
1. Baseline (2000)
2. Dynamic, young, virtuous
3. Dynamic, young, vicious
4. Stagnating, old, virtuous
5. Stagnating, old, vicious
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Common scenarios:
Demographic Changes
Economic Structural Changes
Technological Changes
Land Use Changes
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SC1
SC2
SC3
SC4
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Step 4: City Case Studies
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1. Buenos Aires
2. Gdansk
3. Geneva
4. Genoa
5. Lisbon
6. Tel Aviv
7. Thessaloniki
Final Review
SUTRA: Results
TLE1
baseline - private transport
THE1
TES
4000
veh.km .day-1
MARKAL:
energy/techno-economic
optimisation
TEM
3000
TEH1
2000
TEE3CG
TEE2CG
1000
TEE1CG
TEE1CD
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TE8
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T39
Period
T2B
• Technology mix,
80
veh.km .day-1
• Energy consumption,
• Costs
baseline - public transport
TT1
60
TS1
40
TC1
20
TB1
TAM2
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T4G
Period
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TA1
Final Review
SUTRA: Results
VISUM:
Transportation modeling
Translates O/D matrix into
Trips, vehicle frequency,
speeds, ……
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
TREM:
Emission model
Translates fleet composition
And vehicle frequencies,
speed, cold starts,
into emissions of:
CO, SO2,NOx, PM10
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
VADIS:
Street canyon model
Translates emissions
and meteorology,
building structure
into ambient air quality
(dynamic, 24 hrs)
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
AirWare:
City level
AQ model
Translates emissions
And meteorology
into a city-wide
ambient air pollution
estimate (1, 24 hrs,
seasonal,
yearly average)
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
OFIS:
regional
ozone
Model
Emissions (NOx,
VOC) and longterm meteorology
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Step 5:
Assessment
Population exposure
• Public health
• Economic assessment
BASE
MORTALITY [number of
dephs/year]
MORBIDITY [number of
days lost in a year, per
capita]
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C1
C2
C3
C4
S1
S2
S3
S4
15365 30978 15365 15365 15365 30978 15365 15365 15364,74
0,186
0,23 0,1857 0,1857 0,1857
0,23 0,1857 0,186 0,185747
Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Multi-criteria
analysis:
Discrete reference
point approach, interactive
selection of criteria (indicators)
and constraints.
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Final Review
SUTRA: Results
Benchmarking
70+ cities
merged from
several data
bases, 40+
indicators
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Final Review
SUTRA: Outlook
EXPLOITATION:
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On-line results, data bases and
tools as dissemination and
marketing instrument (ASP basis in
ongoing eContent project Env-e-City)
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Approaching new cities
(INTERREG, ASIA-URBS, UNEP,
WHO, … direct marketing)
SUTRA – the book
Final Review
Agenda and Schedule
Morning session, 09:00-12:30
Introduction and framework
1 Introduction, overview
ESS
2 Framework: indicators and scenarios
FEEM
3 Framework: techno-economic modeling
UGE
The tools
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4 Transportation modeling
PTV
5 AQ modeling: emission and models
UAV
Final Review