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UKIP and Immigration Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, [email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net Data • Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. – 460 UKIP supporters or voters – Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward – longitudinal • Local Election Data, 2010-12 – UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 – Census predictors Former Party, UKIP Supporters, 2010-12 35 31.41 30 25 22.51 20 15 13.61 10 7 6 5 0 Con Lab Lib Source: Understanding Society, 2009-12 UKIP None UKIP: Not BNP in Blazers BNP+ Public officials don't care No say in Govt Male English Identifier All friends are White British Degree No qualifications Political beliefs important for identity Younger Age Band Population density (ward) % Minority in ward Belong to a Religion (i.e. Christian) Can trust most people Semi & Routine occupation Social Housing Profession important for identity Difficult finances Unemployed Broadsheet reader % Minority in LA Change in % minority in ward, 2001-11 White British Isolation (LA) UKIP 71.7 74.9 69.7 77.0 62.3 3.0 31.9 40.3 58.8 25.2 12.8 31.9 16.7 46.0 26.7 62.8 23.2 12.8 2.7 15.3 5.9 4.3 All White 74.6 72.4 60.2 82.0 68.2 9.0 29.4 40.9 27.2 22.3 10.3 52.3 33.1 30.0 11.5 74.8 12.2 3.0 8.8 12.9 4.7 4.1 Gap 48.6 49.2 46.0 68.0 56.4 18.5 21.8 33.3 42.5 24.9 12.0 51.2 39.8 25.0 13.2 74.1 9.7 4.4 13.3 13.9 4.7 4.1 26.0 23.2 14.2 14.0 11.8 9.5 7.6 7.6 31.6 2.9 2.5 20.4 16.4 16.0 15.2 12.0 11.0 9.8 6.1 2.4 1.2 0.2 Clusters in UKIP • Southern, Tory-dominated ward, rural, homeowner [traditional UKIP base] • Lower class, low education, older, council house/renter [‘left behind’] • 2 ideological clusters Local Council Elections UKIP Census Index: • • • • • • Total Population (ward) % Retired (ward) % Degrees (ward) % No qualifications (ward) % English as a Share of White British (LA) Low Deprivation (LA) Predicts around 40% of variation in UKIP vote in councils they contested during 2010-12 Newcastle-under-Lyme Dudley Hartlepool Newcastle-under-Lyme Rotherham Milton Keynes Newham West Lindsey Rotherham Newcastle-under-Lyme Thurrock Birmingham Newcastle-under-Lyme Thurrock Rotherham Merton Hartlepool Runnymede HartlepoolBirmingham MertonRotherham Redbridge Barking and Dagenham Runnymede Stevenage Enfield Barking and Dagenham Enfield AdurAdur Havering Sheffield Dudley Rotherham Dudley Walsall Havering Woking Newcastle-under-Lyme Dudley Waveney Dudley Rotherham Barking and Dagenham Newcastle-under-Lyme Havering Thurrock Dudley Walsall Dudley Wokingham Runnymede Enfield Walsall Adur Havering Hillingdon Walsall Stoke-on-Trent Thurrock Thurrock West Sefton Lindsey Reigate Swale Rotherham Sheffield Sutton Manchester Waltham Forest Redbridge Adur and Banstead Enfield Swale Harrow Newcastle-under-Lyme Sutton Adur Rotherham Bark Rotherham Dudley Runnymede Newcastle-under-Lyme Havant Hartlepool Havering Wolverhampton Hounslow Runnymede Tameside North East Lincolnshire Sutton Kingston upon Hull, City ofWalsall Waltham Forest Rotherham Huntingdonshire Westminster Dudley Worthing Havering Stevenage Rotherham Waveney Reigate and Banstead Croydon Plymouth Runnymede Barking and Dagenham Plymouth Adur Adur Tandridge Worthing Tunbridge Wells Reigate and Banstead Enfield Huntingdonshire Tandridge Worthing Huntingdonshire Bromley Rotherham North East Havering Lincolnshire Thurrock Havering Westminster Sefton Bromley Thurrock Thurrock Stoke-on-Trent Plymouth Bexley Plymouth Dudley Newcastle-under-Lyme North Hertfordshire Havering Walsall Hartlepool Sutton Southend-on-Sea Tameside Stevenage Bromley Swindon Milton Barking Keynes and Dagenham Croydon Carlisle Plymouth Worthing Plymouth Reigate and Banstead Bexley Greenwich Rotherham Bexley Plymouth Brentwood Worthing Stoke-on-Trent Plymouth Adur Brentwood Brentwood Doncaster Newcastle-under-Lyme Kensington Dudley and Chelsea Reigate and Banstead North Havering East Sheffield Lincolnshire Reigate Banstead Newcastle-under-Lyme Kingston upon Hull, City of andBarking Thurrock Rotherham North North East East Lincolnshire Lincolnshire Newcastle-under-Lyme Harrow Bromley West Adur Lindsey Dudley North East Lincolnshire Woking Walsall Croydon Dudley Wokingham Tunbridge Stevenage Wells Bexley Adur Woking Huntingdonshire Reigate and Banstead Basildon Milton Keynes and Dagenham Stoke-on-Trent Stoke-on-Trent Mole Valley Milton Keynes upon Hull, City of Rotherham Plymouth Tameside Reigate Harrow and Banstead Gloucester Plymouth Waveney Reigate and Banstead Hammersmith Croydon and FulhamKingston Redbridge Enfield Reigate andMilton Banstead Newcastle-under-Lyme Plymouth Basildon Stevenage Plymouth Worthing Havant Newcastle-under-Lyme Sefton Tameside Adur Exeter Keynes Tandridge Huntingdonshire Wokingham Stevenage Waveney Tandridge Bromley North Gosport East Walsall Lincolnshire Coventry Croydon North West Plymouth East Lindsey Stoke-on-Trent Basildon Lincolnshire Plymouth Huntingdonshire Swale Runnymede Plymouth Newcastle-under-Lyme Wolverhampton Bromley Gosport Plymouth Tandridge Waveney Newcastle-under-Lyme Walsall Milton Keynes Havant Croydon Newcastle-under-Lyme Swale Swindon Bromley Adur Huntingdonshire North Hertfordshire Rotherham North East Lincolnshire Bromley Dudley Stoke-on-Trent Wigan Tunbridge Wells Dudley Wigan Southend-on-Sea Croydon Purbeck North East Lincolnshire Bromley North East Lincolnshire Worthing Sutton North East Lincolnshire Mole Valley Worthing Stoke-on-Trent Manchester Doncaster Wokingham Kensington Redbridge and Lincoln Chelsea Rotherham Tandridge Westminster Huntingdonshire Wokingham Woking Coventry Croydon Worthing Brentwood Croydon Worthing Kingston Bromley upon Hull, City Ealing of Mole Valley Sefton Tameside Walsall Swindon Brentwood Rotherham Stoke-on-Trent Exeter Doncaster Huntingdonshire Stevenage Doncaster Lincoln Wolverhampton Chorley Dudley Gloucester Tandridge Tunbridge Wells Newcastle upon Tyne Tandridge South Cambridgeshire Bradford Dudley Stoke-on-Trent Woking South Havering Cambridgeshire Reigate Stevenage and Banstead Southampton Swindon North East Lincolnshire Croydon Wolverhampton Mole Valley Swale Woking Epping Southampton Forest Southend-on-Sea Southend-on-Sea Milton Keynes Wokingham Norwich Fareham Merton Havant Bradford Walsall Woking Tandridge Tameside Southend-on-Sea Milton Keynes Mole North Valley Basildon East Lincolnshire Sefton North East Gloucester Wokingham Lincolnshire Sefton Bradford Sheffield Bradford Plymouth Exeter Southend-on-Sea Southampton Wokingham Purbeck Tameside Stevenage Manchester Sefton Lincoln Wirral Tunbridge Wells Mole Valley Tandridge Plymouth Lincoln Havering Maidstone Lincoln Birmingham Wirral Eastleigh Manchester Tandridge Newcastle-under-Lyme Gosport Eastleigh Woking Sefton Maidstone Leeds Rotherham Woking Milton Bradford Keynes Milton Keynes Walsall Basingstoke Eastleigh and Deane Bradford Reigate and Banstead Islington Exeter Sefton Hartlepool Sefton Lincoln Dudley Milton Keynes Havant Mole Valley Merton Richmond Southend-on-Sea upon Thames Basildon Camden Adur Woking Maidstone Norwich Doncaster Milton Keynes Reading Sheffield Mole Valley Exeter Adur Gosport Reigate Gosport and Banstead Oxford Sheffield Basingstoke Eastleigh Lincoln andKeynes Deane Milton Keynes Havant Tameside Wokingham Birmingham Southend-on-Sea Eastleigh South Sheffield Cambridgeshire Norwich Milton Manchester Sefton Tameside Gloucester Tameside Southend-on-Sea Leeds Wirral Mole Valley Wokingham Bradford Exeter Doncaster South Cambridgeshire Eastleigh Mole Tameside Stockport Valley Birmingham Camden Leeds Sefton Wokingham Fareham Norwich Southend-on-Sea Lambeth South Chorley Cambridgeshire Sefton Merton West Southend-on-Sea Lindsey Norwich Eastleigh Tandridge Basildon Wirral Reigate Southend-on-Sea and Banstead Milton Keynes Birmingham Wigan Epping Forest Fareham Eastleigh Bradford Lincoln Sefton Sefton Sefton Eastleigh Wigan Wirral Trafford Wirral Exeter Sheffield Milton KeynesNewcastle-under-Lyme Haringey Birmingham BirminghamBirmingham Eastleigh Trafford Ealing Wakefield Cambridge Mole Gosport Valley Crawley Tameside Wigan Sefton Wirral Leeds Wirral Gloucester Leeds Westminster Swindon Maidstone Reading South Cambridge Cambridgeshire Bradford Lincoln Milton Keynes Basildon Eastleigh Eastleigh Eastleigh Leeds Sheffield Wirral Woking Woking Wirral Tameside South Cambridgeshire Manchester Eastleigh Sheffield Swindon Wirral Wirral Sheffield Wirral Wirral South Cambridgeshire Wirral Lincoln Sheffield Stockport Wirral Exeter Eastleigh Leeds Sheffield Wirral Exeter Sheffield Sheffield Exeter 0 10 % UKIP vote 20 30 UKIP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections 2010-12 0 1000 2000 3000 % White British in 2001 x Change in minority share '01-11 Wards Source: Plymouth Elections Centre Fitted values 4000 Sandwell Bexley Ealing Redbridge Thurrock Havering Hounslow Newcastle upon Tyne Bexley Barking and Dagenham Barking and Dagenham Pendle Thurrock Burnley Calderdale Broxbourne Sandwell Southwark Thurrock Sandwell Tower Hamlets Croydon Leeds Sandwell Burnley Leeds Kirklees Thurrock Kirklees Greenwich Greenwich Stoke-on-Trent Stoke-on-Trent Amber Valley Sandwell Croydon Burnley Calderdale Havering Barking and Dagenham RotherhamSandwellPendle Burnley Greenwich Birmingham Redbridge Rochford Hounslow Sandwell Nuneaton and Bedworth Kirklees Epping Forest Hounslow Calderdale Hillingdon Rotherham Sandwell Barnsley Manchester Hounslow Merton Manchester Bradford Burnley Hillingdon RotherhamKirklees Burnley Wakefield Bradford Enfield Bexley Hillingdon Thurrock Manchester Greenwich Rotherham Bradford Epping Forest Wakefield Crawley Crawley Bexley Epping Forest Bexley Sandwell Amber Valley Merton Barnsley Sheffield Redbridge Newcastle upon Tyne Brent Hertsmere Stoke-on-Trent Birmingham Kirklees Sandwell Sandwell Sheffield Solihull Tameside Sandwell Tameside Havering Bradford Barnsley Hounslow Burnley Sandwell Rotherham Solihull Bradford Enfield Bexley Hounslow Pendle Stoke-on-Trent Wolverhampton Leeds Leeds Pendle Amber Valley Sandwell Enfield Crawley Barnsley Merton Greenwich Rotherham Sandwell Bradford Barnsley Bexley Sutton Sheffield Bexley Manchester Ealing Worcester Tameside Birmingham Broxbourne Bury Tower Hamlets Kirklees Sandwell Dudley South Nuneaton Tameside Tyneside and Bedworth Thurrock Leeds Barnsley Thurrock Nuneaton Birmingham Salford andHamlets Bedworth Amber Rotherham Valley Bradford Broxbourne Birmingham Barnsley Solihull Calderdale Sandwell Tameside Greenwich Kirklees Wigan Tower Barnsley Greenwich Wakefield Nuneaton Wakefield and Bedworth Newcastle upon Tyne Barnsley Pendle Barnsley Redditch Leeds Salford Doncaster Rochdale Derby Sandwell Leeds Bradford Wigan Pendle Wolverhampton Birmingham Bexley Walsall Barnsley Newcastle upon Tyne Burnley South Tyneside Nuneaton and Bedworth Bexley Basildon Birmingham Sutton Tameside Wakefield Sunderland Nuneaton and Bedworth Bexley Wigan Coventry Bexley Bury Doncaster Tameside Wigan Nuneaton and Bedworth Rotherham Cannock Chase Basildon Birmingham Kirklees Wolverhampton Birmingham South Tyneside Worcester Salford Merton Bolton Crawley Bromley Derby Stoke-on-Trent Barnsley Leeds Sandwell Leeds Southend-on-Sea Bexley Salford Burnley Havering Sheffield Bury Bexley Greenwich Solihull Wakefield Nuneaton Bexley and Bedworth Barnsley Thurrock Doncaster Rochdale Wakefield Wigan Bradford Hertsmere Rochford Wigan Barnsley Wakefield Leeds Nuneaton and Bedworth Sandwell Tower Hamlets North Tyneside Birmingham Tameside Thurrock Derby Greenwich Rotherham Wakefield Coventry Redbridge Bexley Walsall Sandwell Worcester Burnley Sandwell Worcester Manchester Newcastle upon Tyne Basildon Birmingham Coventry Doncaster Worcester Merton Kirklees Bromley Pendle Leeds Birmingham Sheffield Barnsley Tameside Greenwich Sutton Richmond upon Thames South Tyneside Basildon Hastings Wigan Warrington Greenwich Hartlepool Barnsley Barnsley Rotherham Nuneaton and Bedworth South Barnsley Tyneside Rochdale Leeds Wakefield Birmingham Birmingham Newcastle Wakefield upon Coventry Tyne Wakefield Sheffield Kirklees Coventry Coventry Broxbourne Basildon Sandwell Amber Valley Swindon Greenwich Islington Wigan Stockport Birmingham Pendle Oldham Thurrock Solihull Bury South Tyneside Crawley Bristol, City of Barnsley Bassetlaw Solihull Bexley Wigan South Tyneside Hartlepool Stockport Sutton Milton Keynes Dudley Thurrock Leeds Sheffield Gateshead Bristol, City ofBirmingham Wakefield Basildon Southend-on-Sea Sunderland Birmingham Basildon Tameside Sunderland Nuneaton Wakefield Gateshead and Bedworth Nuneaton and Bedworth Harrogate Tameside Crawley Tameside Sheffield Bury Doncaster Carlisle Bristol, Tameside City of Sunderland Sunderland Newcastle Leeds upon Tyne Croydon Manchester Basingstoke and Deane Barnsley Amber Valley Newcastle Tyne Birmingham Birmingham Croydon St. Helens Bexley Thurrock Kirklees Enfield Wigan Wakefield Calderdale Salford Birmingham Derby Wigan Salford Swindon Birmingham South Halton Tyneside Kirklees Wakefield Basildon Hyndburn Bury Bristol, City of upon South Leeds Tyneside Cannock Wigan Chase Camden Thurrock Thurrock Gateshead Hastings Bexley Bristol, City of Liverpool Coventry Sunderland Gateshead Bolton South South Wigan Tyneside Tyneside Southend-on-Sea Gateshead Newcastle Sunderland upon Tyne Bolton Wakefield Gateshead Swindon Salford Tameside Gateshead Coventry Hartlepool South Tyneside Manchester Basildon Solihull Stockport Reigate and Banstead Sheffield Bexley Epping Forest Rochford Newcastle Coventry upon Tyne Calderdale Sunderland Worcester Croydon South Newcastle Lincoln Tyneside upon Tyne Sheffield Barnet Leeds Newcastle Newcastle Leeds upon upon Tyne Tyne Carlisle Coventry Gateshead Swindon Coventry Kirklees Kirklees Bury Richmond upon Thames Kirklees Southend-on-Sea South Bromley Wakefield St. Tyneside Helens Newcastle Rochdale Solihull upon Tyne Wigan North Liverpool St. Helens Bristol, City of Stockport Gateshead Basildon Wirral Kingston CLiverpool arlisle Southend-on-Sea upon Birmingham Gateshead Hull, City of Sheffield Solihull Wakefield Kingston upon Croydon Hull, City of South Wigan Tyneside Kirklees Wigan North Sheffield East Lincolnshire Bury Ipswich St. Gateshead Helens Birmingham Birmingham Bristol, City Southend-on-Sea ofSouthend-on-Sea Gateshead Bolton Harrogate Salford Wandsworth Wigan Bury Newcastle Bury upon Tyne Knowsley Carlisle Sunderland Liverpool Harrogate Southend-on-Sea Coventry Leeds Bristol, City of Wolverhampton Solihull Stockport Lincoln North Hertfordshire Gateshead Birmingham Newcastle upon Tyne Leeds Newcastle Carlisle upon Tyne St. Helens Stockport Kirklees Hastings Southend-on-Sea Derby Liverpool Redbridge Leeds Plymouth St. Sheffield Helens Wirral Basildon Salford Bristol, City of Swindon Stevenage Solihull Carlisle Birmingham Tameside Wigan Lincoln Kirklees Gateshead Sunderland Southend-on-Sea Leeds Kirklees Solihull Carlisle Barnsley North Hertfordshire Carlisle Hartlepool Wirral Croydon Birmingham Camden Solihull Manchester Southend-on-Sea Reigate and Birmingham Banstead Liverpool Dudley St. Helens Sunderland Carlisle Southend-on-Sea Sefton Bristol, of Liverpool Rochford Stockport Leeds Kirklees Sefton Bristol, City of Basildon Lincoln Southend-on-Sea North Hertfordshire Barrow-in-Furness North Tyneside Leeds Sunderland Newcastle upon TyneCityupon Stockport Liverpool Coventry Southend-on-Sea Birmingham Newcastle Tyne Leeds Sefton Leeds Camden Solihull Gateshead Wigan Leeds Southend-on-Sea Sefton Solihull North Tyneside Bristol, City of South Basildon Tyneside Stockport Southend-on-Sea Newcastle upon Tyne St. Wirral Wirral Helens Birmingham Leeds Basildon Leeds Leeds Southend-on-Sea Sefton Exeter Sefton Sefton Sefton Leeds Hastings Colchester Leeds Newcastle upon Tyne Sefton Solihull Newcastle upon Tyne Newcastle upon Tyne Barki 0 % BNP British Only) 30 10Vote (White20 BNP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections, 2010-12 0 1000 2000 3000 % White British 2001 x Change in Minority Share '01-11 wards Source: Plymouth Elections Centre Fitted values 4000 BNP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections 2010-12 0 0 % BNP British Only) 30 10vote (White 20 % UKIP British only) 30 10vote (White20 UKIP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections, 2010-12 0 1000 2000 3000 % White British 2001 x Change in Minority Share '01-11 wards Fitted values 4000 0 1000 2000 3000 % White British 2001 x Change in Minority Share '01-11 wards Fitted values UKIP not a response to local ethnic change. BNP vote much more so (i.e. Barking) UKIP supporters dislike immigration in the abstract, BNP more likely to be in close-knit communities directly affected by immigration 4000 Does UKIP own immigration? • UKIP supporters more outstandingly Euroskeptic than anti-immigration (Ford & Goodwin 2014, p. 193), unlike BNP • 82 percent of White British want immigration reduced, 60 percent ‘reduced a lot’. Not a minority. • UKIP long way to go to reach most antiimmigration voters UKIP a Coalition • UKIP cross-class, multiple issues, unlike BNP • Elderly profile unique. Europe more an old person’s issue than immigration • Can UKIP encompass old and young, middle and working class? • Tension between rural base and urban working class UKIP: Rural Traditionalists or Working-Class Populists? [email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net