Transcript Slide 1

Working Class Tories not Labour
Traditionalists: why UKIP is
damaging the Conservatives
Eric Kaufmann
[email protected]
Twitter: @epkaufm
Data
• Understanding Society (UKHLS) – 3 waves of
40,000 people, 2009-12.
– 1,188 UKIP supporters or voters
– Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward
– Longitudinal
– LA and ward census data appended
• Local Election Data, 2010-12
– UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940
– Ward and LA census data appended
….
• British Election Study Internet Panel 2015,
Wave 1– Feb-March 2014; Wave 2 May-June
2014 (Fieldhouse et. al)
– 35,000 sample size
– LA is lowest geographic identifier
– Panel study, with second wave to come
– LA level electoral data appended
Sources of UKIP 2015 General Election Vote Intention
(by 2010 vote). BES 2015 wave 1
DK, 2.1%
Other, 1.1%
BNP, 2.8%
Green, 0.4%
None,
10.8%
Con, 44.4%
UKIP, 10.2%
Lib Dem,
15.8%
Lab, 10.3%
Sources of UKIP European Election
Support (by 2010 vote), BES ’15 Wave 2
Nonvoter
DK
6%
1%
GreenOther
0% 1%
BNP
Pl. Cym 3%
1% SNP
2%
UKIP
11%
Lib Dem
15%
Con
47%
Lab
13%
Sources of 2014 UKIP General Election Vote Intention
by 2014 Party Identity. BES 2015 wave 1
DK, 4.7%
BNP, Other,
0.8% 0.8%
Green,
0.4%
None,
17.8%
UKIP,
38.2%
Con,
24.2%
Lab, 9.9%
Lib Dem,
2.2%
Share of 2014 UKIP Vote Intenders by
Party ID and 2010 Vote
(BES 2015 wave 1)
2014 Party ID
2010 Vote
16.4%
11.5%
10.0%
8.9%
8.8%
3.7%4.7%
None
Con
Lab
3.6%
Lib Dem
2014 UKIP Vote Intenders' Recalled 2010
Vote (BES Feb-Apr 2014, N = 20, 881)
50%
40%
UKIP Voters & Supporters, former Vote/Support,
2009-12, Understanding Society, N (UKIP) = 417
30%
20%
45.0%
10%
40.0%
Wave 1 to 2
0%
35.0%
Wave 2 to 3
30.0%
Wave 1 to 3
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
DK
Con
Lab
Lib
UKIP
BNP Green Celtic None Other
Nat
Method: Logistic,
clustered on LA;
also multilevel
Age
Personal Income
Tabloid/Broadsheet
2010 Vote Only
2010 Vote Only
(multilevel
(full data)
data)
+Labour
Contextuals
+Attitudes
+Labour
Contextuals
+Attitudes
Beta
S.E.
Beta
S.E.
Beta
S.E.
Beta
S.E.
Beta
S.E.
.017
.002
.014
.003
.014
.003
.007*
.003
.007*
.003
-.001
.006
-.003
.009
-.002
.009
-.006
.010
-.006
.010
.525***
.072
.550***
.082
.549***
.079
.164*
.079
.158*
.074
Education level
-.285***
.045 -.340***
.037
-.344***
.038
-.113*
.050
-.124*
.053
Female
-.336***
.040 -.414***
.086
-.416***
.085
-.445**
.132
-.451**
.131
.145
.241**
.083
-.137
.163
-.115
.123
-.703**
.230
2010 Tory Voter
.477**
2010 Labour Voter
-.839***
.087 -.781***
.129
-.763***
.129
-.688***
.160
-.644***
.154
2010 BNP Voter
1.908***
.232 1.798***
.337
1.815***
.343
.850**
.433
.895**
.439
2010 UKIP Voter
Labour % of LA Vote
2.641***
.163 2.575***
.173
2.579***
.180
2.028***
.261
2.038***
.275
-.003
.004
-.009*
.004
.011**
.004
.017***
.005
Labour % of LA Vote x
Tory voter in 2010
Immigration Cultural
Benefits
-.352***
.027
-.353***
.028
Out of EU
1.721***
.101
1.724***
.102
-.465***
.035
-.471***
.035
-.516*
.215
-.133
.225
Satisfied UK Democracy
_cons
Pseudo R2
N
-2.516***
.218 -1.929***
.197
-1.803***
.188
.11
.104
.105
.2586
.2601
18235
6595
6595
6025
6025
20
Labour/Conservative Ratio v. UKIP/Conservative Ratio
Source: Local
Election Data
2010-12
(Plymouth
Elections Centre)
Liverpool
Liverpool
Liverpool
Sefton
15
Birmingham
Birmingham
0
5
10
Sefton
Liverpool
Sefton
Manchester
Kingston upon Hull, City of
SeftonSheffield
Wirral
Sheffield
Sefton Kingston upon Hull, City of
Sheffield
Doncaster
Sheffield
Barnsley
Sheffield
Wirral
Sheffield
Barnsley
Sheffield
Sheffield
Stockport
Sheffield
Birmingham
LiverpoolManchester
Sunderland
Kingston
upon
Hull,
St.
Helens
Liverpool
Kingston
upon
Hull,
CityCity
of of
Barnsley
Sheffield
Kingston
upon
Hull,
City
of
Wigan
Sheffield
Salford
Wirral
Sefton
Manchester
Sheffield
Salford
Sheffield
Manchester
Manchester
Wakefield
Wakefield
Coventry
Newcastle
upon
Sheffield
Tyne
Salford
Rotherham
Rotherham Newcastle-under-Lyme
Sunderland
Newham
Sefton
Tameside
Sheffield
Rotherham
Sheffield
Birmingham
Birmingham
Manchester
Liverpool
Rotherham
Liverpool
Hartlepool
Barking
Tameside
and
Dagenham
Norwich
Rotherham
Kingston
upon
Kingston
Hull,
upon
City
of
Hull,
City
of
Bradford
Colchester
Manchester
Kingston
upon
Hull,
City
of Slough
Rotherham
Liverpool
Sheffield
Barking
and
Dagenham
North
East
Lincolnshire
Preston
Wirral
Rotherham
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Manchester
Sheffield
Birmingham
Salford
Dudley
Merton
Chorley
Sefton
Leeds
Hartlepool
Haringey
Slough
Carlisle
Salford
Sheffield
Wakefield
Leeds
Sheffield
Wirral
Wolverhampton
Wakefield
Tameside
Barking
Birmingham
and
Dagenham
Hartlepool
Wigan
Sefton
Leeds
Sunderland
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Salford
Wirral
Bradford
Waltham
Forest
Rotherham
Westminster
Burnley
Salford
Rotherham
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Sunderland
Rochdale
Rotherham
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Tameside
Sheffield
Norwich
Bradford
Leeds
Leeds
Salford
Birmingham
Salford
Sunderland
Camden
Bury
Doncaster
Milton
Birmingham
Colchester
Keynes
Cambridge
Exeter
Wirral
Leeds
Leeds
Wirral
Tameside
Exeter
Carlisle
Wakefield
Sheffield
Walsall
Tameside
Doncaster
Plymouth
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Hartlepool
Barking
Tameside
and
Dagenham
Trafford
Tameside
Coventry
Birmingham
Barrow-in-Furness
Rotherham
Sheffield
Wolverhampton
Exeter
Amber
Valley
Tameside
Rotherham
Tameside
Bury
Carlisle
Slough
Tameside
Coventry
Wakefield
North
East
Lincolnshire
Manchester
Hartlepool
Bradford
Salford
Norwich
Barking
North
East
and
Lincolnshire
Dagenham
Rotherham
Westminster
Sheffield
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Oxford
Waltham
Forest
Norwich
Doncaster
Stevenage
Pendle
Milton
Burnley
Plymouth
Keynes
Dudley
Sheffield
Leeds
Sefton
Wakefield
Great
Yarmouth
Bury
Birmingham
Merton
Bradford
Lincoln
Stevenage
Rotherham
Thurrock
Salford
Worcester
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Watford
Chorley
Tameside
Derby
Oxford
Bury
Manchester
Derby
Harlow
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Walsall
Swindon
Thurrock
Bury
Thurrock
Carlisle
North
Plymouth
East
Lincolnshire
Leeds
Wirral
Wolverhampton
North
East
Lincolnshire
Wirral
Wolverhampton
Exeter
Dudley
Tameside
Crawley
Slough
Dudley
Milton
Keynes
Lincoln
Chorley
Walsall
Leeds
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Dudley
Exeter
Thurrock
Tameside
Cambridge
Slough
Dudley
Bury
Oldham
Exeter
Dudley
Thurrock
Hartlepool
Barking
Plymouth
North
Chorley
Plymouth
Waveney
Dudley
and
East
Dagenham
Lincolnshire
Kirklees
Wigan
Stevenage
Southampton
Salford
North
Basildon
East
Lincolnshire
Liverpool
Swindon
Milton
Oxford
Keynes
Great
Yarmouth
Carlisle
Stevenage
Basildon
Waveney
Cambridge
Croydon
Islington
Lincoln
Chorley
Sefton
Sunderland
Eastleigh
Peterborough
Salford
Stevenage
Wigan
Slough
Wirral
Bury
Lincoln
Southend-on-Sea
Gloucester
Swale
Rotherham
Basingstoke
Hartlepool
Plymouth
Great
Yarmouth
and
Deane
Hammersmith
Great
and
Yarmouth
Fulham
Tameside
Milton
Chorley
Keynes
Bury
Bury
Slough
Enfield
Wolverhampton
Barnsley
Great
Yarmouth
Wirral
Amber
Valley
Birmingham
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Gosport
Kensington
Norwich
Liverpool
Enfield
Walsall
and
Chelsea
Wirral
Greenwich
Stevenage
Rossendale
Slough
Wirral
Tameside
Barking
Milton
and
Dagenham
Keynes
Tameside
Wigan
Southend-on-Sea
Stevenage
Hounslow
Stevenage
Exeter
Stockport
Exeter
Doncaster
Plymouth
Basildon
Eastleigh
Redbridge
Hyndburn
Sefton
Colchester
Thurrock
Slough
Gloucester
Birmingham
North
Bradford
Plymouth
East
Waveney
Walsall
Lincolnshire
Harrow
Southampton
Havant
Barrow-in-Furness
Sheffield
Wakefield
Bristol,
Walsall
Colchester
Watford
City
of and
Lincoln
Bury
Swale
Waveney
Gosport
Wakefield
Basingstoke
andDeane
Deane
Birmingham
Derby
Sefton
Exeter
Chorley
North
Waveney
Basingstoke
Hertfordshire
Croydon
Trafford
Slough
Stevenage
Exeter
Enfield
Plymouth
West
Lindsey
Sefton
Wakefield
Chorley
North
Plymouth
Havering
Thurrock
Hertfordshire
Peterborough
Birmingham
Swindon
Stevenage
Dudley
Havering
Exeter
Southampton
North
Bristol,
Southampton
Lincoln
Bury
Crawley
Hertfordshire
Peterborough
City
Hartlepool
of
Basildon
Peterborough
Bradford
Great
Yarmouth
Sefton
Harrow
Tameside
Bradford
Tunbridge
Dudley
Plymouth
Slough
Dudley
Rotherham
Hartlepool
Wells
Chorley
Southend-on-Sea
Bury
Stockport
Adur
Cambridge
Walsall
Birmingham
Swindon
Walsall
Thurrock
Wyre
Peterborough
Forest
Trafford
Worcester
Stevenage
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Basildon
Dudley
Birmingham
Salford
Wolverhampton
Gloucester
Brentwood
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Gloucester
Dudley
Basildon
Havering
Waveney
Plymouth
Wirral
Milton
Dudley
Bury
Adur
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Slough
North
Great
Keynes
East
Yarmouth
Lincolnshire
Coventry
Southampton
Redbridge
Southampton
Lincoln
Dudley
Great
Plymouth
Wyre
Yarmouth
Forest
Lambeth
Southend-on-Sea
Swindon
Wyre
Havering
Bury
Adur
Waveney
Thurrock
Bradford
Rotherham
Hyndburn
Forest
Basingstoke
Sheffield
Leeds
Milton
Chorley
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Watford
Wolverhampton
Elmbridge
Keynes
Sutton
and
Deane
Leeds
Chorley
Bromley
Warrington
Walsall
Carlisle
Derby
Woking
Runnymede
Thurrock
Bradford
West
Milton
Solihull
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Derby
Carlisle
Coventry
Plymouth
Thurrock
Peterborough
Lancashire
Barnsley
Keynes
Sefton
Wirral
Thurrock
Gosport
Warrington
Camden
Croydon
Wokingham
Croydon
Hertsmere
Bury
Dudley
Waveney
Kingston
Reigate
Adur
North
upon
and
Banstead
Hull,
East
City
Lincolnshire
of
Westminster
Tameside
South
Harrow
South
Enfield
Stevenage
Milton
Reading
Sefton
Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire
Keynes
Wirral
Leeds
Salford
Exeter
Merton
Swindon
Enfield
North
Swale
Hertfordshire
Great
Yarmouth
Chorley
Purbeck
Stockport
Gloucester
Walsall
Havant
Eastleigh
Redbridge
Wirral
Dudley
Dudley
Tandridge
Dudley
Three
Waveney
Plymouth
Worthing
Runnymede
Dudley
Rivers
Adur
Lincoln
Doncaster
Sefton
Worthing
Rushmoor
Plymouth
Colchester
Thurrock
Burnley
Bradford
Milton
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Hertsmere
Carlisle
Broxbourne
Colchester
Adur
Plymouth
Keynes
South
North
Gloucester
Dudley
Salford
Kirklees
Reigate
Hillingdon
Basildon
Swale
Plymouth
Cambridgeshire
Great
Adur
East
Worthing
North
and
Lincolnshire
Yarmouth
Banstead
East
Lincolnshire
Wirral
Merton
Ealing
Swindon
Southend-on-Sea
Nuneaton
Bromley
Waveney
Swale
Derby
Southend-on-Sea
Maidstone
Havering
Southend-on-Sea
Sefton
Southend-on-Sea
Bedworth
Ealing
Kensington
Trafford
Croydon
Wokingham
West
Wolverhampton
Wyre
Carlisle
Bexley
Milton
Bexley
Wyre
Peterborough
Bromley
North
Fareham
Tunbridge
Huntingdonshire
Worthing
Havering
Lindsey
Forest
Keynes
Forest
East
Lincolnshire
Chelsea
Wells
Swindon
Milton
Swale
North
Swindon
Solihull
Bexley
Runnymede
Reigate
Dudley
Mole
Stockport
Brentwood
Keynes
East
Plymouth
Worthing
Valley
and
Lincolnshire
Banstead
Westminster
West
Walsall
Woking
Leeds
Stockport
Woking
Bromley
Carlisle
Mole
Stockport
Wyre
Carlisle
Worthing
Reigate
Havering
Lindsey
Tunbridge
Pendle
Valley
and
Wells
Banstead
Southend-on-Sea
Leeds
Epping
Sheffield
Walsall
Adur
Walsall
Maidstone
Gosport
Sefton
Eastleigh
Swale
Peterborough
Havering
Huntingdonshire
Forest
Swindon
Croydon
Bradford
Southend-on-Sea
Tunbridge
Sefton
Gosport
Mole
Runnymede
Swale
Tunbridge
Valley
Adur
Wells
Wells
Merton
Reading
Crawley
Havant
Havant
Brentwood
Tunbridge
Runnymede
Tandridge
Thurrock
Runnymede
Eastleigh
Havant
Three
Sutton
Reigate
Southend-on-Sea
Rivers
Wells
and
Banstead
South
Carlisle
Basingstoke
South
Leeds
North
West
Eastleigh
North
Southend-on-Sea
Havering
Peterborough
Woking
Basildon
Runnymede
Southend-on-Sea
Worthing
Cambridgeshire
Mole
Lindsey
Cambridgeshire
Hertfordshire
Hertfordshire
Valley
and
Deane
Exeter
South
Watford
Wirral
Redbridge
Hertsmere
Gosport
Wokingham
Rochford
Three
Southend-on-Sea
Eastleigh
Havering
Sutton
Cambridgeshire
Rivers
Gosport
Huntingdonshire
Sutton
Eastleigh
Maidstone
Tunbridge
Gosport
Bromley
Basingstoke
Havant
Epping
Brentwood
Huntingdonshire
Huntingdonshire
Forest
Wells
and
Deane
Huntingdonshire
Solihull
Swindon
Havant
Milton
Trafford
Croydon
Tunbridge
Basildon
Fareham
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Woking
Wokingham
Basildon
Huntingdonshire
Wokingham
South
Basildon
Tandridge
Eastleigh
Worthing
Brentwood
North
Keynes
Cambridgeshire
Hertfordshire
Wells
Wokingham
Richmond
Harrogate
Southend-on-Sea
Bromley
Reigate
Wokingham
Epping
Eastleigh
Woking
Huntingdonshire
Reigate
Tandridge
Worthing
Tunbridge
Tunbridge
Forest
and
upon
and
Banstead
Banstead
Wells
Thames
Wells
Three
Stockport
Epping
Huntingdonshire
Woking
Runnymede
Reigate
Fareham
Reigate
Huntingdonshire
Tandridge
Rochford
Rivers
Tandridge
Forest
and
and
Banstead
Banstead
Fareham
Woking
Winchester
Eastleigh
Woking
Brentwood
Brentwood
Huntingdonshire
Tandridge
Epping
Reigate
Forest
and
Banstead
Elmbridge
Eastleigh
Woking
Elmbridge
Mole
Bromley
Tandridge
Bromley
Tandridge
Valley
Reigate
Cheltenham
and
Banstead
Woking
Epping
Forest
0
1
2
3
UKIP/Conservative Ratio of Votes in ward
wards
Fitted values
4
DV: Labour-Tory vote ratio
UKIP-Tory vote ratio
UKIP-Labour vote ratio
10
UKIP in Labour-Tory Marginal LAs
Reading LincolnCamden
Chorley
Carlisle
Cannock Chase Pendle
Rossendale
Thurrock
0
North East Lincolnshire
Stockport
Southampton
Hounslow
Watford
HarlowAmber Valley
Ealing
Bristol, City of Plymouth
Merton
Calderdale
Dudley
Enfield
West Lancashire
Redditch Redbridge
Trafford
Worcester
Great Yarmouth
Tamworth
Crawley
Weymouth and Portland
Milton Keynes
Harrow
Croydon
-10
Gloucester
Waveney
Rugby
Hammersmith and Fulham
Portsmouth
Barnet
Swindon
SwalePeterborough
Wyre Forest
Stroud Hillingdon
Basingstoke
and Deane
Westminster
Wandsworth
-20
Bexley
-50
Southend-on-Sea
Havering
Colchester
SouthAdur
Lakeland
-40
-30
-20
Margin by which UKIP Trailing Conservatives in LA
-10
UKIP harms Tories….
but also hurts the Left?
• UKIP damaging Tories,
but:
• Right-wing parties gain 2014
in combined share over
time as UKIP share rises 2009
• Canadian example ??
Trends in EU Elections, UK,
1999-2014
Left Bloc
Right Bloc
2004
1999
0%
20%
40%
60%