Transcript PENELITIAN HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE METHOD

PENELITIAN
HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE
METHOD
Prof. Dr. Imam Ghozali, M.Com
Program S3 Ilmu Ekonomi
Universitas Diponegoro
BERPIKIR INDUKTIF DAN DEDUKTIF
“ Metal Dipanaskan memuai”
Universal Statement
TEORI
Induktif
Observasi Empiris
Singular Statement
Deduktif
Normatif & Positif
Describe (deskripsi)
Explain (menjelaskan)
Predict (meramalkan)
HUBUNGAN TEORI DAN PENELITIAN
Sifat Teori
Jenis Penelitian Deskriptif
1. Exploratory
2. Uji Hipotesis
a. Korelasi
b. Regresi
Explain
Prediksi
Non-Empiris
Filsafat, Sejarah
Empiris
Study Kasus,survey
Etnography
Empiris
Survey
Non-eksperimen
Empiris
Eksperimen
Survey
THE STEPS IN HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE METHOD
1
Observation
4
5
3
Problem
Definition
Preliminary
Data
Gathering
2
Theoretical
Framework
Hypotheses
6
Research
Design
7
Data
Collection
Analysis
Deduction
8
Problem Definition
1. Latar Belakang Masalah (7- 10 hal)
- Theory Gap atau Research Gap
- Masalah Penelitian dapat berasal dari
a. Pengamatan empiris
b. Penelitian sebelumnya: replikasi,
modifikasi atau pengembangan
Problem Definition
2. Perumusan Masalah
- Diawali dengan problem statement (pernyataan
masalah)
- Diwujudkan dalam research question (pertanyaan
penelitian) : What, How dan Why
3. Tujuan Penelitian
- Menjawab masalah penelitian
- Gunakan kata kerja dgn kognitif tinggi (menganalisis,
mengevaluasi)
- Harus konsisten antara judul penelitian, latar
belakang masalah, perumusan masalah, tujhuan
penelitian dan hipotesis
A Comparison of Accounting Standards Setting in The International Environment
And in The United States
Purpose of The Study
The primary purpose of this research study is to investigate the extent to which
Experience in establishing accounting standards in the United States can be
Utilized in the developing the process of establishing international accounting
Standards for the financial statement reporting of enterprises operating in the
International environment.
Research Questions
The research was undertaken to answer the following primary research
Questions:
What need for modifications to the process of establishing
accounting standards in the international environment can
be inferred from a comparison with the process of establishing
accounting standards in the united states?
The subsidiary research questions are:
1. How are accounting standards currently established for the
financial statement reporting of profit oriented United States
enterprises?
2. How are international accounting standards currently established
for the financial statement reporting of profit oriented enterprises?
3. What are the similarities and differences in the process of
establishing accounting standards in the United States and on
an international level?
4. What differences exist in the environment within which
financial statement reporting takes place on an international
level when compared with the United States?
Some common mistakes in problem
formulation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Collecting data without a well defined plan or purpose,
hoping to make some sense out of it afterward.
Taking a “batch of data” that already exist and
attempting to fit meaningful research questions to it.
Defining objectives in such general or ambiguous term
that your interpretations and conclusions will be
arbitrary and invalid.
Undertaking a research project without reviewing
professional literature on the subject.
Ad hoc research, unique to a given situation,
permitting no generalizations beyond the situation itself
and making no contribution to the general body of
educational research
Some common mistakes in problem
formulation
6. Failure to base research on a sound theoretical or conceptual
framework, which would tie together the divergent masses of
research into a systematic and comparative scheme, providing
feed back and evaluation of educational theory.
7. Failure to make explicit and clear the underlying assumptions within
your research so that it can be evaluated in terms of these
foundations.
8. Failure to recognized the limitations in your approach, implied or
explicit, that place restrictions on the conclusion and how they
apply to other situations.
9. Failure to anticipate alternative rival hypotheses that would also
account for given set findings and which challenge the
interpretations and conclusions reached by the investigator.
KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN TEORITIS
Suatu conceptual model untk menggambarkan hubungan antar variabel yg
Telah diidentifkasi sebagai faktor penting yg berkaitan dg masalah penelitia
Content of Theory
Concepts
Abstract idea
Non-Variable
Definiton
State meaning of the
concept
Variable
Observe
Kinerja (ROA)
Inflasi (IHK)
Un-observed
Proposition
Statement about concept
Or relationship between
concept
Skala Pengukuran Variabel
Skala
Kategori Peringkat
Jarak
Unique Nilai
Origin Tengah
Dispersi
Test
signif
Nominal
Ya
Tdk
Tdk
Tdk
Mode
Ordinal
Ya
Ya
Tdk
Tdk
Median
Interquartil
Deviasi
Rank
Order
Corr
Interval
Ya
Ya
Ya
Tdk
Mean
Standar
Deviasi
t, F
Ratio
Ya
Ya
Ya
Ya
Mean
Standar
Deviasi
t, F
X2
UN-OBSERVED VARIABLE (LATENT VARIABLES)
Kepuasan
Kerja
Dimensi
Indikator
Job
Atasan
Q1 Q2 Q3
Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7
Co
Worker
Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11
Q1 = setujukah bahwa pekerjaan saudara membosankan ? STS TS N S SS
Q4 = setujukah bahwa atasan saudara selalu menghargai pekerjaan saudara?
Q8 = setujukah bahwa teman sekerja sudara selalu mendorong saudara?
Jenis variabel
•
•
•
•
Variabel Independen (bebas)/exogen
Variabel Dependen (terikat)/ endogen
Variabel Kontrol (umumnya demografi)
Variabel Moderating (memperkuat atau
memperlemah hubungan variabel
dependen dan independen)
• Variabel Intervening atau mediating
(variabel antara)
Reflective and Formative
Indicator
Stress
Stress
Stomach Headache
ache
tension
Reflective Indicator
Divorce
Retired Bankcrupt
Formative Indicator
Independent
Dependent
CAR
ROA
NPL
NIM
Size
Age
Control variables
ROA = b0 + b1CAR + b2NPL + b3NIM + e
ROA = b0 + b1CAR + b2NPL +b3NIM + b4Size + b5Age + e
We never hyphotese variable control
Path Analysis
Exogenous variable ξ (Ksi)= is not posses an antecendent varaibles
Endogenous variable η (Eta)= is posses an antecedent variables
Intervening /Mediating variable = is posses an antecedent as well as
consequent variables (η1)
Coefficient parameter from Exogenous to endogenous γ (gamma)
Coefficient parameter from endogenous to endogeneus β (beta)
η1=γ1.1ξ1+γ1.2ξ2+ ζ1
η2= γ2.1ξ1+γ2.2ξ2+β2.1η1+ ζ2
Structural Equation Modeling
Measurement Model:
ξ 1(Ksi)
X1=λ1ξ1+d1
X2=λ2ξ1+d2
X3=λ3ξ1+d3
Structural Model:
η1=γ1.1ξ1+γ1.2ξ2+ ζ1
η2= γ2.1ξ1+γ2.2ξ2+β2.1η1+ ζ2
Moderating Variables
X
Y
Numbers of
Books read
Capability of
reading
Parent
Condition
illiterate
Z
Y = b0 +b1X + b2Z*X+ e
Y= b0 + b1X + b2Z +b3Z*X + e
Universal vs Contingency Theory
A
B
A and B as Shoes Company
If I have to setup MIS in company A, is it also applicable for company B
According Universal theory, yes it also can be applied as well at company B
But according to Contingency theory can not be applied to B since company B
Has its own situational or contextual factors that might be different from A,
The contingency variables are:
1. Environment uncertainty
2. Technology
3. Organizational structure
4. Strategy
5. Culture
Indepeden
Dependen
Partisipasi
Anggaran
Kinerja
Manajerial
Dependen
Independen
Kinerja
Manajerial
Partispasi
Anggaran
Motivasi
Independen
Moderating
Partisipasi
Anggaran
Dependen
Kinerja
Manajerial
Motivasi
Intervening
Hypotheses
• A Special type of proposition that represents
conjecture about concepts stated in empirically
testable form.
• Is derived from a proposition by linking one or
more constitutively defined concepts with the
empirical indicators identified in the operational
definition.
• Proposisi: suatu pernytaan tentang konsep yang
dapat dinilai benar atau salah jika dikaitkan
dengan fenomena.
• Jika proposisi ini dirumuskan untuk pengujian
empiris, maka disebut hipotesis
Hypotheses
•
Hipotesis sering juga digambarkan sebagai suatu pernyataan dimana kita
mengkaitkan variabel kepada kasus. Kasus adalah entity atau sesuatu
yang sedang dibahas dalam hipotesis.
•
Hipotesis dapat dibedakan menjadi
A. Hipotesis deskriptif (descriptive hypotheses): yaitu proposisi yang
menyatakan tentang keberadaan, ukuran, bentuk, atau distribusi suatu
variabel.
Kota-kota di Amerika mengalami kesulitan anggaran.
Kota-kota = kasus
Kesulitan anggaran= variabel
Delapan puluh persen pemegang saham PT XYZ menyukai kenaikan
deviden kas.
PT XYZ= kasus
Sikap pemegang saham yang menghendaki kenaikan deviden= variabel
Hypotheses
• Beberapa peneliti lebih senang menggunakan pertanyaan penelitian
daripada hipotesis deskriptif.
Apakah kota-kota di Amerika mengalami kesulitan anggaran?
Apakah para pemegang saham PT XYZ menyukai kenaikan deviden
kas?
B. Hipotesis Relational : merupakan pernyataan yang menggambarkan
hubungan antara dua variabel dalam kaitannya dengan suatu kasus
Mobil impor dipandang memiliki kualitas yang lebih baik oleh
konsumen Indonesia dibandingkan dengan mobil buatan dalam
negeri.
Konsumen = kasus
Negara asal dan kualitas = variabel
Hypotheses
•
1.
Hipotesis relational dapat berbentuk:
Hubungan korelasi: tdk ada hubungan sebab-akibat
Masinis muda (umur<35th) lebih rendah produktivitasnya
dibandingkan masinis yang berumur 35th atau lebih.
2. Hubungan sebab-akibat: dalam hal ini adanya
perubahan satu variabel akan mempengaruhi variabel
lainnya.
Adanya kenaikan pendapatan keluarga akan
meningkatkan prosentase pendapatan yang ditabung.
Hypotheses
•
•
Bentuk baku hipotesis
Null Hypotheses (H0)
Tidak ada beda antara x dan y
Tidak ada asosiasi/korelasi antara x dan y
Tidak ada pengaruh x terhadap y
• Alternative Hypotheses (HA)
Ada beda antara x dan y
Ada asosiasi/korelasi antara x dan y
Ada pengaruh x terhadap y
• Hipotesis yang baik hrs memenuhi tiga hal:
a. Memenuhi tujuan penelitian
b. Dapat diuji
c. Lebih baik dari rivalnya.
The Impact of Structure, Environment, and Interdependence on The Perceived
Usefullness of management Accounting System
Robert H Chenhall and Degan Morris
The Accounting Review Vol LXI No 1 January 1986
External
Environment
Uncertainty
Moderating
Organizational
Structure:
Decentralization
Organizational
Independence
Perceived
Usefulness
Of MAS:
1. Scope
2. Timeliness
3. Aggregation
4. Integration
Hipotesis Penelitian
• H1: There is a direct relationship between the
perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic
of broad scope and the three contextual variable
of 1)decentralization, 2) perceived environment
uncertainty, 3) organizational interdependence.
• H2: There is direct relationship between the
perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic
of timeliness and the contextual variable of PEU.
• H3: There is direct relationship between the
perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic
of aggregation and the two contextual variables
of 1) decentralization, and 2) PEU
Hipotesis Penelitian
• H4: There is direct relationship between the perceived
usefulness of the MAS characteristic of integration and
the two contextual variables of 1) decentralization, and
2) organizational interdependence.
• H5: There is an indirect relationship between the
perceived usefulness of the two MAS characteristic of 1)
broad scope and 2)aggregation, and PEU acting through
decentralization.
• H6: There is an indirect relationship between the
perceived usefulness of the two MAS characteristic of 1)
broad scope and 2) integration, and OI acting through
decentralization.
Influences on Departemental Budgeting: An Empirical Examination of
A Contingency Model
Kenneth A merchant
Accounting, Organizational and Society Vol 9 1984
Situational
Characteristics
-Production
Technology
-Market factors
-Organizational
Characteristics
Budgeting
System
Characteristics
Organizational
Performance
Hipotesis Penelitian
• Production technolgy and budgeting
H1: Department with productive technology that are
relatively routine and repetitive tend to place greater
emphasis on formal budgeting.
• Market factors and budgeting
H2: Department with predominantly in the earlier stages of
product life cycle (emerging, growth) tend to place less
emphasis on formal budgeting than do departments with
products predominantly in the later stage (mature,
declining).
H3: Department with a relatively strong market position
tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting.
Hipotesis Penelitian
• Organizational characteristics and budgeting.
H4: Larger, more diverse department tend to place
greater emphasis on formal budgeting.
• Effects on organizational performance
H5: Organizational performance tend to be higher
where there is a “fit” between the use of
budgeting and the situational factors as
described in Hypotheses 1 -4
The Effect of Technological Sophistication on Strategic Profiles,
Structure and Firm Performance
Jeffrey G Covin and E Prescot
Journal of Management Studies 27:5
September 1990
Industry Technological Sophistication
Macro Strategy
Variable
Micro Strategy
Variable
Organizatioanl
structure
Firm
Performance
Hipotesis Penelitian
• H1: Small firms in high-tech industries have mission
strategies which are more build-oriented than are those
of small firms in low-tech industries.
• H2: Small firms in high-tech industries have strategic
postures which are more entrepreneurial than are those
of small firms in low-tech industries.
• H3: Small firms in high-tech industries have structures
which are more organic than are those small firms in
low-tech industries.
• H4: Small firms in high-tech industries perform better
than do small firms in low-tech industries.
Diversification and Performance: Critical Review and Future Directions
Deepak K Datta and Nandini Rajagopalan
Journal of Management Studies 28:5 September 1991
Degree of
diversification
Moderating
Diversification
strategy
Mode of
diversification
Industry structure
-Concentration
-Barrier to entry
-Capital intensity
-Growth
Organizational
Factor:
Structure,culture
system
Performance:
-return
-risk
- other
The Effect of Effort on Sales Performance and Job Satisfaction
By Steven P. Brown and Robert A Peterson
Journal of Marketing Vol 58, April 1994
Competitiveness
Instrumentality
Role ambiguity
Effort
Performance
Satisfaction
Role Conflict
The Design and Effects of Contriol System : Test of Indirect Models
By: Michael D Shields; F Johny Deng and Yutaka kato
Accounting, Organization and Society 25 2000
Participative
Std setting
Std Based
Incentive
Std
Tightness
Job Related
Stress
Job
Performance
Setting Penelitian
Laboratory Setting
Field Setting
Laboratory Research
Field Research
Laboratory Experiment
Field
Experiment
Field
Study
Common Type of Dependent Measure of Variables in
Accounting Research
Behavioral Measures
Frequency
Of respond
Latency
Number of
errors
Research involves
Measurement
Established measures
Through literture review
Validity and Reliability
Known
Self Report Measure
Rating Scale
Likert Scale
Attitude measurement
Develop own measure
Need to test for validity
and reliability
Desain Penelitian
• Non-Experimental
Quasi-Experimental
Design
Based on correlational
research strategy
- Observational research
- Case study research
- Content analysis
- Survey research
- Quasi-experimental
• Experimental Design
Based on experimental
research strategy
- Simple experiment
- Multiple group
experiment
- Field experiment
• Quasi experimental design if the data come from an environment which existed or
Or events that occurred without his direct intervention.
• True experiment design if he is (1) able to manipulate explicitly one or more inde
pendent variables, (2) to assign subject to control or experimental groups
(basically to achieve randomization)
Sampling Method
• Unit analisis:
1. individuals groups artifacts (books,
photos, newspapers)
2. geographical units (town, census tract,
state) .
3. social interactions (dyadic
relations, divorces, arrests)
Probability Sampling
Probabilitas
Populasi
Persh Go Public
Di BEJ
350 persh
Sample
60 persh
Mean
Mean
Variance
Std Dev
Std. Dev
Variance
Probability Sampling
• Simple random sampling:
1. Lotere
2. Tabel Random
• Complex Random Sampling:
1. Systematic random sampling
2. Stratified random sampling
3. Cluster random sampling
Non-Probability Sampling
• Convenience sampling
• Purposive sampling
• Judgemnetal sampling
Kesalahan Sampling:
Type I error (alpha): salah padahal benar
Type II error (beta): benar padahal salah
Menentukan Besarnya Sample
•
a.
b.
c.
•
a.
Ada 3 faktor yang mempengaruhi sample size:
Variance atau heteroginitas dari populasi (S)
Besarnya acceptable error (E)
Confidence level (Zc.i)
Menentukan besarnya sample:
Estimate std dev populasi (kasar 1/6 dari
range)
b. Lakjukan judgment tdp kesalahan yang
diinginkan.
c. Tentukan confidence intervalnya
Perhitungan besarnya sample
• Rumus : n= (ZS/E)2
Dimana:
Z = nilai cofidence level
S = std dev. Sample atau populasi
E = nilai accepted error, plus atau minus
error factor (one half total confidence
interval)
Perhitungan besarnya sample
• Seorang peneiliti ingin meneliti
pengeluaran untuk lipstick dan
menginginkan besarnya confidence level
95% (Z) dengan range kesalahan (E)
kurang dari $2 dengan standar deviasi $29
n = (ZS/E)2 = [(1.96)(29)/$2)]2= 808, jika
error range menjadi $4 ,maka sample
n = [(1.96)(29)/$4)]2 = 202
Uji Kualitas Data
• Uji Reliabilitas atau konsistensi : cronbach
alpha
• Uji validitas :
a. Bivariate korelasi
b. Analisis faktor
• Uji Non response bias
Metode Analisis Data
• Metode Dependen: menguji ada tidaknya
hubungan dua set variabel. Satu variabel adalah
variabel bebas (independen) dan satu variabel
adalah variabel terikat (dependen). Tujuan
metode dependen menentukan apakah variabel
bebas mempengaruhi variabel terikat.
• Metode Interdependen:jika set data yang ada
tidak mungkin dikelompokkan kedalam variabel
bebas dan terikat, maka yang dapat dilakukan
adalah mengidentifikasi bagaimana dan
mengapa variabel tersebut saling berkaitan satu
sama lain.
Teknik Analisis Data
Variabel terikat
Variabel Bebas
Teknik Analisis
1.
Satu metrik
Satu non-metrik
Dua kategori
Uji Beda t-test
2.
Satu metrik
Satu non metrik
>dua kategori
3.
Satu metrik
Dua non metrik
>Dua kategori
Analysis of variance
(ANOVA) –one way
Anova
Two way Anova
4.
Dua atau lebih
metrik
Satu atau lebih non
metrik
Multivariate analysis
of variance (Manova)
Teknik Analisis Data
Variabel terikat
Variabel bebas
Teknik Analisis
5. Satu metrik
Dua atau lebih
metrik dan non
metrik
Dua atau lebih
metrik dan non
metrik
Dua atau lebih
metrik
Multiple Regression
6. Satu non metrik
7. Dua atau lebih
metrik
Analisis Diskriminan
Logistic regression
Structural equation
Modelling (SEM)