Transcript UAH-CSS-Collopy-Programmatic

Learning from Programmatic Failures
Paul Collopy
[email protected]
Learning from Programmatic Failures
 What is a Programmatic Failure?
 Should we be concerned?
 What can we do?
What is a Programmatic Failure?
 Major Cost Overrun
 A Year or More Delay in Schedule
 Cancellation Due to Program or Performance
What is a Programmatic Failure?
 Major Cost Overrun
90% of Current NASA Programs
80% of Current DoD Programs
 A Year or More Delay in Schedule
2 of 2 Current NASA Programs
80% of Current DoD Programs
 Cancellation Due to Program or Performance
Few NASA Programs
30% of DoD Programs
Should We Be Concerned?
 DoD Programmatic Failures Cost ~ $150 million per day
On the order of the cost of the Iraq or the Afghanistan War
 Pentagon estimates a $600 Billion LCC overrun for F-35
 Space Station cost 6 times the original estimate, excluding
Shuttle Flight costs
$200 B total
 Space Shuttle cost 3.5 times the original budget
overrun
$200 billion could have funded a manned mission to Mars
 Overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope cost JPL
its Mars Exploration program
Should We Be Concerned?
 DoD Programmatic Failures Cost ~ $150 million per day
On the order of the cost of the Iraq or the Afghanistan War
 Pentagon estimates a $600 Billion LCC overrun for F-35
 Space Station cost 6 times the original estimate, excluding
Shuttle Flight costs
$200 B total
 Space Shuttle cost 3.5 times the original budget
overrun
$200 billion could have funded a manned mission to Mars
 Overruns on the James Webb Space Telescope cost JPL
its Mars Exploration program
What Can We Do?
 Our systems engineering process has failed us
 Biased cost estimates indicate an endogenous cost
growth process
 Although we focus our process and research on
conceptual and preliminary design,
Everything Is Fine at PDR
 We need to fix the SE process for Detailed Design
100 %
Cost Committed
80 %
Cost Incurred
20 %
0%
Concept
Design
Prelim
Design
Detailed
Design
Production
Use and Dispose
After illustration on the website of the Engineering Design Centre and Newcastle University
Systems Engineering during Detailed Design
 Systems Engineering is the process that guides, coordinates,
and facilitates Design Engineering
Guidance for Complex Systems
Coordination for Optimal Design
Facilitation – stay out of the way!
 Guidance – Preferences
 Coordination – Consistent Objective Functions
 Facilitation – Minimal restrictions, constraints, requirements
Research on SE During Detailed Design
The Renaissance in Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering Research has never
been more critical to our nation’s future
We need radical (getting to the root cause
and fixing it) solutions to the most pressing
problems
This will necessitate re-thinking our current
research agendae