Transcript Slide 1

Recent Trends in
Organic Tree Fruit
Production: 2002
Organic pears near Chelan, WA
David Granatstein
Center for Sustaining Agriculture and
Natural Resources, Wenatchee, WA
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US Orgnaic Food Sales
(billion $)
Growth of Organic Food Sales
Projected $20 billion in sales by 2005
Source: Organic Trade Association
Acreages of Main Organic Crops in WA
2002
• Tree Fruit
• Grapes
• Berries
• Hay
• Pasture
• Grains
• Fallow
• Herbs
• Vegetables
Total
Cert.
10773
1410
380
4280
3043
4110
2368
1982
9335
39501
Trans.
2186
298
114
329
81
70
88
5
43
3381
The “Organic Divide”
Certified Acres
Transition Acres
# Growers
Ave. Acres/Grower
WEST
EAST
5656 (18%) 25,312 (82%)
80 (2%) 3,904 (98%)
143 (34%)
276 (66%)
39.5
91.7
Washington Organic Tree Fruit Acreage*
by County - 2001
3000
2500
* certified +
transition
2000
1500
1000
Apple
Pear
la
n
la
W
al
to
Cherry
W
al
B
en
an
Fr
D
ou
gl
kl
in
as
n
la
C
he
O
ka
no
ga
n
im
a
ak
Y
ra
nt
500
0
G
Acres
4000
3500
Estimated World Organic Apple and
Pear Acreage - 2001
Certified Acres
Apple
Pear
U.S.
17,572
2,798
Europe
8,675
3,665
New Zealand
2,873
163
South America
1,385
932
Canada
800
60
Total
31,005
7,618
China, Turkey ??
U.S. Organic Tree Fruit Acreage - 2001
WA
CA
AZ
CO
ID
OR
Others
Apple
6540
4529
2800
1535
503
350
1015
Pear
1308
842
-100
-500
48
Cherry
303
179
30
133
-25
57
All fruit
8436
8662
2830
1923
506
1180
1198
Total US
17,272
2798
727
23,835
Organic Tree Fruit Acreage in WA - 2002
Apples
Pears
Cherries
Cert.
8075
1771
501
Apricots
90
Peaches
195
Nectarines 78
Plums
46
Other
17
Total 10,773
Trans.
1786
192
184
12
4
3
3
2
2,186
Total
9861
1963
685
102
199
81
49
19
12,959
Certified
Transition
20
20
20
19
19
19
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
6000
Pheromone MD
8000
95
94
93
92
91
Alar
10000
19
19
19
19
19
19
90
89
88
4000
19
19
19
Area (ac)
Organic Apple Acreage in Washington
State
2000
0
Annual Changes in Organic Apple Acreage –
Washington State
2500
2000
Acres
1500
1000
500
0
-500
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Organic Orchard Acreage as a Percent
of Total Washington Orchards
Apple
Pear
1996
0.68
1.49
1997
0.96
1.68
1998
1.05
1.84
1999
1.36
1.87
2000
2.48
2.54
2001
3.90
5.27
2002
4.81
7.14
2002 (C+T)
5.87
7.92
Based on 2001 USDA-National Agricultural Statistics for
bearing acreage
WA Organic Apple Acreage by Variety
2002
Red Delicious
Granny Smith
Gala
Golden Delicious
Fuji
Other
Braeburn
Cameo
Pink Lady
Golden Types
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Acres
Certified
Transitional
2500
3000
WA Organic Red Delicious Acreage
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998
1999
Certified
2000
2001
Transitional
2002
WA Organic Apple Prices
($ per box FOB)
$/box FOB
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Red
Delicious
1995
Golden
Delicious
1996
1997
Granny
Smith
1998
Fuji
1999
2000
Gala
2001
WA Organic Apple Prices
($ per box FOB)
$50
$/box FOB
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Braeburn
Jonagold
1995
1996
Red Rome
1997
1998
Cameo
1999
2000
Pink Lady
2001
Recent Organic Apple Prices – Washington
($/box FOB)
$30
$/box FOB
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Red
Delicious
'01-'02
Golden
Delicious
Granny
Smith
to Nov15,'01
Fuji
to Nov15,'02
Gala
Nov 1-15, '02
Red
Delicious
$/box FOB
Price
Trends
Org
$30
Org
Org
$20
Conv
$10
$0
Conv
Con
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
2001 2002
v
organic
conventional
Golden
Delicious
$/box FOB
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
organic
conventional
$40
$/box FOB
$30
$30
$20
$20
$10
$10
$0$0
Org
$35.00
Org
$30.00
Price $/box FOB
Granny
Smith
$40
$/box FOB
Price
Trends
$25.00
Conv
$20.00
$15.00
Conv
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
20002000
20012001
2002
organic
organic
conventional
conventional
$30
$50
$40
$20
$30
$10
$20
$10
$0
$0
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
Price $/box FOB
$/box FOB
Braeburn
$/box FOB
$40
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
organicconventional
conventional
organic
$40
$30
$/box FOB
Fuji
$/box FOB
$40
$20
$10
Org
$30
$20
$10
Conv
$0
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
organic1999
conventional
1995 1996 1997 1998
2000 2001 2002
Price
Trends
organic
conventional
$30
$20
$10
$0
$40
$/box FOB
Gala
$/box FOB
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
1995 1996 1997 organic
1998 1999
2000 2001 2002
conventional
organic
conventional
Organic Pear and Stone Fruit Acreage
in Washington State
2000
Acres
1500
1000
500
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
Pear
1996
Stonefruit
1998
2000
2002
Organic Pear Acreage in Washington State
2000
Acres
1500
1000
500
0
1998
1999
2000
Certified
Transitional
2001
2002
WA Organic Pear Acreage by Variety
2002
Anjou
Bosc
Bartlett
Asian
Red Anjou
Red Bartlett
Concord
Other
0
200
400
600
Acres
Certified
Transitional
800
1000
$/box FOB
WA Organic Pear Prices ($/box FOB)
$60
$40
$20
$0
Bartlett
1996
Red Bartlett
1997
1998
D'Anjou
1999
2000
Bosc
2001
$/box FOB
$/box FOB
Price Trends
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Org
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1996
1997
1998
organic
1999
2001
Conv
conventional
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bartlett
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
$/box FOB
$/box FOB
organic
D’Anjou
2000
conventional
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1996
1997
1998
organic
1999
2000
2001
conventional
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
organic
conventional
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
$/box FOB
Bosc
$/box FOB
Price Trends
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1996
1997
1998
organic
1996 1997
1999
2000
2001
conventional
1998 1999 2000
organic
2001 2002
conventional
Washington Organic Soft Fruit Acreage 2002
Pluot
Cherry
Peach
Nectarines
Plums
Apricot
0
200
400
Acres
Certified
Transitional
600
800
WA Organic Cherry Acreage
600
Acres
500
400
300
200
100
0
1998
1999
2000
Certified
2001
Transitional
2002
Challenges
• NOP
implementation
• Lack of
international
harmonization –
export barriers
• Retail pricing – U.S.
vs. Switzerland
Estimated Food Sector Share of the Apple Price
Grower
Organic
Fuji
.45
Packer Trucker
.20
.15 .10
Retail profit
1.09
Broker
Grower Packer Trucker Retail profit
Fuji
.225
0
.175 .11
.44
0.5
$1.99/lb
$0.95/lb
1
1.5
Dollars
Retail Markup
Fuji
86%
Org. Fuji 120%
Farm Share of Retail Price
Fuji
23%
Org. Fuji 23%
2
Opportunities for Organic Tree Fruit
• Food quality differences –
taste, storability, nutrition,
nutraceuticals
• Combine “organic” with
other ecolabels
• US Farm Bill –
Conservation Security
Program payments for
stewardship