Transcript Recent Trends in Organic Tree Fruit Production

Recent Trends in
Organic Tree Fruit
Production: 2001
David Granatstein
Organic pears near Chelan, WA
Center for Sustaining Agriculture and
Natural Resources, Wenatchee, WA
www.tfrec.wsu.edu “Organic & Integrated”
“Which half of the world will starve if
we switch to organic farming?” Earl
Butz, former US Secretary of
Agriculture
Encouraging Trends
• Consumer trends around “wellness”
• Increased organic food sales and availability
• More public interest in food system, ecosystem
services, role of ag in society
• More public and private support for organic farming
• More regulatory certainty (USDA National Organic
Standard)
• Organic = “GMO free”
US Organic Food Sales
(billion $)
Organic food sales in the US
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: Organic Trade Association
Segments of total population by
environmental attitude (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
TN
NGM
AH
TN = True Naturals
OV = Overwhelmed
NGM = New Green
Mainstream
YR
OV
UC
AH = Alternative Healers
UC = Unconcerned
YR = Young Recyclers
(Hartman, 1996)
Concerns
• More tree fruit growers and acres, domestic
and foreign - More supply than demand right
now ?
• “Industrial” organic
• More scrutiny and criticism of organic
• Convergence of conventional and organic on
the farm
Estimated World Organic Apple and
Pear Acreage - 2001
Certified Acres
Apple
Pear
U.S.
17,572
2,798
Canada
800
60
Europe*
8,675
3,665
South America
1,385
932
New Zealand
2,873
163
Total
31,005
7,618
China ??
*Europe data from 2000
U.S. Organic Tree Fruit Acreage - 2001
Apple
6540
4529
2800
1535
503
350
1015
Pear
1308
842
-100
-500
48
Cherry
303
179
30
133
-25
57
All fruit
8436
8662
2830
1923
506
1180
1198
Total US 17,272
WA trans.
3411
2798
642
727
280
24,735
4408
WA
CA
AZ
CO
ID
OR
Others
Organic Tree Fruit Acreage in WA - 2001
Apples
Pears
Cherries
Cert.
6540
1308
303
Apricots
49
Peaches
126
Nectarines 57
Plums
54
Total
8436
Trans.
3411
642
280
Total
9951
1950
583
4
31
26
14
4408
53
157
84
68
12844
Certified
Transitional
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Pheromone MD
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
Alar
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1988
Acres
Organic Apple Acreage in Washington
State
Organic Pear and Stone Fruit Acreage
in Washington State
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
Pear
1996
Stonefruit
1998
2000
Organic Pear Acreage in Washington State
1400
1200
Acres
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1998
1999
Certified
2000
Transitional
2001
Organic Cherry Acreage in Washington State
350
300
Acres
250
200
150
100
50
0
1998
1999
Certified
2000
Transitional
2001
Annual Changes in Organic Apple Acreage –
Washington State
2500
2000
Acres
1500
1000
500
0
-500
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Organic Orchard Acreage as a Percent
of Total Washington Orchards
Apple
Pear
1996
0.68
1.49
1997
0.96
1.68
1998
1.05
1.84
1999
1.36
1.87
2000
2.48
2.54
2001
3.90
5.27
2001 (C+T)
5.92
7.86
Based on USDA-National Agricultural Statistics for
bearing acreage
Acres
California Organic Tree Fruit Trends
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
*
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Apple
Pear
Stonefruit
* Data source changed to CDFA
WA Organic Apple Acreage by Variety
2001
Red Delicious
Granny Smith
Gala
Golden Delicious
Fuji
Other
Braeburn
Cameo
Pink Lady
Golden Types
0
500
1000
1500
Certified
2000
2500
Transitional
3000
WA Organic Red Delicious Acreage
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998
1999
Certified
2000
Transitional
2001
WA Organic Pear Acreage by Variety
2001
Anjou
Bosc
Bartlett
Asian
Red Anjou
Red Bartlett
Concord
Other
0
200
400
Certified
600
800
Transitional
1000
WA Organic Apple Prices
($ per box FOB)
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Red
Delicious
Golden
Delicious
1995
1996
Granny Smith
1997
1998
Gala
Fuji
1999
2000
Source: Washington Growers Clearinghouse
WA Organic Apple Prices
($ per box FOB)
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Braeburn
Jonagold
Red Rome
1995
1997
1996
1998
Cameo
1999
Pink Lady
2000
Source: Washington Growers Clearinghouse
$30
$/box FOB
Price
Trends
Red
Delicious
Org
$20
Org
$10
Conv
$0
Con 2000 2001
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
v
organic
conventional
Golden
Delicious
$/box FOB
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
organic
conventional
$40
Granny
Smith
Org
$30
$35.00
$20
$10
$0
$30.00
Price $/box FOB
$/box FOB
Price
Trends
$25.00
Conv
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
1995
1996
1997
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1999
2000
conventional
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
Price $/box FOB
Braeburn
$/box FOB
organic
1998
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
organic
conventional
$30
$20
$10
$0
Org
Org
$35.00
Conv
$30.00
Price $/box FOB
Fuji
$/box FOB
$40
$25.00
$20.00
Conv
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$0.00
Price
Trends
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
organic
conventional
$30
$35.00
$20
$10
$0
$30.00
Price $/box FOB
Gala
$/box FOB
$40
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
organic
conventional
WA Organic Pear Prices ($/box FOB)
$55
$45
$35
$25
$15
Bartlett
Red Bartlett
1996
1997
1998
D'Anjou
1999
Bosc
2000
Source: Washington Growers Clearinghouse
$/box FOB
Price Trends
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Bartlett
1996
1997
1998
D’Anjou
$/box FOB
organic
1999
2000
2001
conventional
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1996
1997
1998
organic
1999
2000
conventional
2001
Bosc
$/box FOB
Price Trends
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
1996
1997
1998
organic
1999
2000
conventional
2001
Organic Tree Fruit Research Needs
Semi-arid regions (western North
America, Argentina) – weed control,
insect pests, fruit thinning, fertility,
replant disease
Humid regions (Michigan, NY, Europe)
– scab, insect pests, weed control, fruit
thinning, fertility
Research Response in PNW
•Pheromone mating disruption for
codling moth
• New biorational pest control tools
(Spinosad, kaolin, oils, repellents)
• Mulching systems for weed control
• Cover crops
• Biocontrol of replant disease
• Compost, soil quality
• Natural thinners
• Organic tree fruit statistics
Looking Ahead …
Organic:
… is on the leading edge of sustainable
agriculture; not the endpoint.
… doesn’t guarantee “no spray, no
chemicals, no residues, no synthetics,
tastier, healthier, family farm, local.”
… cannot remain static and must
continually improve.
Keep Your Eye on the Consumer
• More interest in food and farm attributes outside
the organic rule (labor, wildlife, food miles,
energy…). ‘Beyond Organic’ or ‘Organic Plus’
• Organic fruit and “wellness” – apples and
antioxidants. Pre-sliced organic apples as a snack
food alternative?
• “Taste, face and place.” Where is there more
consumer loyalty – local, fresh, non-organic vs.
imported organic Chilean fruit?
“Take care of the soil …
… and it will take care of you.”