Transcript keiv

Enhanced Hydrocarbon Recovery
Economic Analysis
EOR
CSEGR
ECBM
Presented to:
West Coast Regional Partnership for Carbon Sequestration
Sacramento, CA
Presented by:
Scott H. Stevens
Advanced Resources International, Inc. (ARI)
Arlington, VA
(703) 528-8420 – [email protected]
September 30, 2003
Introduction to
Advanced Resources
Commercial E & P Consulting
• Coalbed Methane
• EOR
• Gas Storage
Geologic Sequestration R&D
• ECBM
• EOR
• EGR
• Natural Analogs
Advanced Resources International
Previous ARI Studies
Calif Enhanced Recovery Economics
• Lifting the Ban on Alaskan Oil Exports – Benefits to CA
oil producers (USDOE).
• “NEMS” Model : National EOR Production Forecasting
Submodule (USDOE-EIA).
• Fuels Hearings : TEOR Forecast (CEC)
• “Buena Vista” CSEGR Economics (with LBNL)
• ECBM : National Screening and Potential (USDOE)
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Year
Revenues
Incr. CH4 Production (MMcfd/well)
CH4 Production Wells
Incr. CH4 Production (MMcfd)
Incr. CH4 Production (Bcf/yr)
Royalty to Mineral Rights Holder
Royalty to Mineral Rights Holder (Bcf/yr)
Incr. CH4 Prod Net of Royalty (Bcf/yr)
Gas Price ($/Mcf)
Incr. Revenues (MM$)
CA State Admin Fee ($/Mcf)
CA State Admin Fee (MM$)
CA State Ad Valorem Tax (% reserve value)
Proven Reserves (Bcf)
Discounted Reserves (Bcf)
Disc.Reserves Value (MM$)
CA State Ad Valorem Tax (MM$)
Net Incr. CH4 Revenues (MM$)
Costs
CO2 Injection (million t/yr)
CO2 Capture/Supply Costs ($/t)
CO2 Capture/Supply Costs (MM$)
Well Costs
CH4 Production Well: New Completion (MM$/well)
CH4 Production Well: New Completion (wells)
CH4 Production Well: New Completion (MM$)
CH4 Production Well: Workover (MM$/well)
CH4 Production Well: Workover (wells)
CH4 Production Well: Workover (MM$)
CO2 Inj. Well: New Completion (MM$/well)
CO2 Inj. Well: New Completion (wells)
CO2 Inj. Well: New Completion (MM$)
CO2 Inj. Well: Converted CH4 Well (MM$/well)
CO2 Inj. Well: Converted CH4 Well (wells)
CO2 Inj. Well: Converted CH4 Well (MM$)
Monitoring Well: Converted CH4 Well (MM$/well)
Monitoring Well: Converted CH4 Well (wells)
Monitoring Well: Converted CH4 Well (MM$)
Total Wells
Total Well Capital Costs (MM$)
CO2 Pipeline Costs
CO2 Pipeline Costs (MM$)
CO2 Field Distrib Lines (MM$)
Total Capital Costs
Operating Costs
Pipeline Operating Costs (MM$)
Well Incr. O&M & Monitoring (MM$/well/yr)
Well Operation & Maintenance Costs (MM$)
CH4 Compression Costs ($/Mcf)
CH4 Compression Costs (MM$)
CH4/CO2 Separation Costs ($/Mcf)
CO2 Content (%)
CH4/CO2 Separation Costs (MM$)
Total Operating + CO2 Costs
Net Incr. Revenues Less Capex + Opex (MM$)
Discount Factor
Disc. Net Incr. Revenues (MM$)
Net Present Value of Project (MM$)
0
1
2
3
4
5
12.5%
0.00
0.00
$5.25
0
$0.004
$0.00
1.00%
0.00
0.00
$0
$0.00
$0.00
1.66
16
27
9.68
12.5%
1.21
8.47
$5.25
$44.47
$0.004
$0.04
1.00%
96.81
7.26
$38
$0.38
$44.05
3.36
16
54
19.65
12.5%
2.46
17.20
$5.25
$90.29
$0.004
$0.08
1.00%
196.55
14.74
$77
$0.77
$89.43
5.02
16
80
29.34
12.5%
3.67
25.67
$5.25
$134.76
$0.004
$0.13
1.00%
293.36
22.00
$116
$1.16
$133.47
5.02
16
80
29.34
12.5%
3.67
25.67
$5.25
$134.76
$0.005
$0.14
1.00%
293.36
22.00
$116
$1.16
$133.47
5.02
16
80
29.34
12.5%
3.67
25.67
$5.25
$134.76
$0.005
$0.14
1.00%
293.36
22.00
$116
$1.16
$133.46
2.36
$15.71
$37.14
2.36
$15.71
$37.14
2.36
$15.71
$37.14
2.36
$15.71
$37.14
2.36
$15.71
$37.14
2.36
$15.71
$37.14
$0.39
4
$1.56
$0.04
12
$0.48
$0.46
5
$2.30
$0.18
20
$3.61
$0.07
8
$0.56
49
$8.51
• Simple in concept, but
modeling future operator
behavior is an art.
• Capital & operating
costs.
• Revenues from enhanced
production.
49
49
49
49
49
$0.75
$0.01
$0.59
$0.30
$2.54
$1.00
0%
$0.00
$41.02
-$34.12
0.87
-$29.67
$0.75
$0.01
$0.59
$0.30
$5.16
$1.00
0%
$0.00
$43.64
$8.65
0.76
$6.54
$0.75
$0.01
$0.59
$0.30
$7.70
$1.00
0%
$0.00
$46.18
$50.15
0.66
$32.97
$0.75
$0.01
$0.59
$0.30
$7.70
$1.00
0%
$0.00
$46.18
$50.14
0.57
$28.67
$0.75
$0.01
$0.59
$0.30
$7.70
$1.00
0%
$0.00
$46.18
$50.14
0.50
$24.93
$6.25
$0.30
$15.06
$0.75
$0.01
$0.59
$0.30
$0.00
$1.00
0%
$0.00
$38.48
-$90.68
1.00
-$90.68
$0.12
Cash Flow
Economics
• Taxes, royalties
• Carbon sequestration.
• Cash flow, sensitivity.
Advanced Resources International
“Value Added” CO2 Sequestration in the
Petroleum Industry
CO2-EOR:
Currently performed at large scale in
Permian, Rocky Mtn, Gulf Coast basins.
Chevron tested first CA pilot at Buena Vista.
Depleted
Natural
Gas Fields:
Not currently performed, but large storage
potential available. Probably requires
emissions credits. CSEGR Potential.
Deep Coal
Seams:
One commercial pilot underway in the U.S.,
second planned. Shows some potential but
still early days.
Advanced Resources International
Enhanced Recovery Economics
Rules of Thumb
• CO2 Input / Hydrocarbon Recovery generally is the
most important factor (e.g., Mcf CO2 / bbl oil).
• CO2 supply therefore most important cost (or revenue
stream in carbon constrained world).
• Capital costs less important than for conventional
recovery projects, assuming good reservoir
permeability (minimize injection and prod wells).
• Costs of post-injection monitoring unprecedented;
estimated to be low (several %/year; Calif?).
Advanced Resources International
California CO2
Flood Potential
EGR
EOR
EOR
• California has
region’s greatest
“value added”
potential.
• Conversion of
existing thermal
EOR to CO2.
• New CO2-EOR
projects.
• CSEGR
• Limited ECBM
potential
• Organic-rich
shales (Monterey
Fm & equiv)
Advanced Resources International
CO2 Sequestration at Rangely (Estimated Ultimate)
Net CO2
Purchases
Gross CO2 Inj
136 MMBO @ 8.6 Mcf/BO
136 MMBO @ 3.5 Mcf/BO
1,167 Bcf
472 Bcf
62 Mt CO 2
Recycled
Vented CO 2
from
Production Wells
from
Production Wells
695 Bcf
Unknown Volume
Estimated at <1%
of net CO 2
Purchases
37 Mt CO 2
Cap Rock
CO2
Emissions
Unknown Volume
Estimated at
<1% of net Co 2
Purchases
25 Mt CO 2
Immobile Oil
CODissolved
2
(Sequestered
in Immobile Oil)
Net Purchases
472 Bcf
Rangley Weber
Sandstone
Reservoir
25 Mt CO 2
Immobile Oil
Sources: Operator data, ARI estimates
Advanced Resources International
250,000
200,000
25
20
150,000
Oil Price
15
100,000
10
50,000
0
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
0
5
U.S. Average Crude Oil Price $/BO
30
GULF COAST
MID-CONTINENT
ALASKA (22% CO2)
ROCKY MOUNTAINS
PERMIAN BASIN
1986
Enhanced Oil Recovery (barrels/day)
CO2 –EOR Production in the U.S.
Advanced Resources International
Permian Basin CO2 – EOR Projects
De Baca
#
Pla inv iew
# Port ales
Motl ey
Flo yd
Hale
La mb
Ba iley
Li tt lefi eld
Roos evelt
Il lus ion Lak e
Bi lly
Pecos S lop e
Anton Iri sh
JAF20013.XLS
Yellow hou se
30
Pecos S lop e W
To ma haw k
To dd
Chav erloo
Cochra n
Cato
Miln esa nd
To bac
Pecos S lop e S
Allison
Level land *
#
Dicken s
Ed m issi on
Sm yer
Hock ley
#
Lev ellan d
Cros by
Lee Harri so n
Lu bb ock
Sti nn ett
Lu bb ock
Tw in La kes
Fly ing M
Bu cks h ot
Slaug hter
Chav es
Mesca lero
INBE
Ba gley N
Ki ngdom*
E. Huntley
Ba gley
Pren tice
Salt Creek
Sable
Ly nn
Gar za*
Terry
Yoak um
West Brahaney
Capro ck
Ba um
Benn ett Ranch
Dent on
Sau nd ers
Reeves
Wasson
And erso n Ra nch
Atok a
Sacroc
Cedar Lake
Hanford
Scurry
Vacuum
Corbi n
Sem ino le W
Lea
Shu gart N.
Youn g N
Artes ia
Bro wn- Bass ett
Lo vin gto n W .
Malj amar
Em p ire
Lo co H ills
Wel ch*
Russ ell N
Lo vin gto n
Squ are Lal e
Grayb urg -Ja cks on
Red Lak e
Adai r
Welch
Lo vin gto n N
Kem nit z
# Artes ia
Wel lm an
Denver City
tow nsend
High Lon eso me
#
Semi nol e
Hob bs
#
Gain es
# Sny der
Bo rden
La mes a
Hob bs
Shu gart N.
Tu rkey Track
Millm an E.
GMK S outh
Robert s on N
Dagger Draw N
Lu s k
Jo- Mill
Pearl e
Rei necke
Monu m ent
Robert son
Dagger Draws S
Lea
Tex -H um on
Eu m ont
Ackerly
Fla nag an
Vealm oor
Ocean ic
Warren
Nolley
Hat Mes a
Ed dy
In dia n Bas in
#
Eu ni ce Mon um ent
Bi lbrey
Li vin gs ton Rid ge
Carls ba d
Gram Rid ge
Wan tz
Eu ni ce N
Bl ineb ery
Means
Hare Tu br
Arrowh ead
Drink ard
Eu ni ce S. Pen Ros e S kelley Pad do ck
Carls ba d
Breed lov e
Unio n
Lu th er SE
McFa rlan d
Magu tex Hut ex
Fu llert on
Sha ft er Lake
#
La ngl ey
Varel
And rews
Culeb ra Blu ff s
Ant elop e Rid ge
And rews N
Deep Ro ck
Fu hrm an -Mas ch o
Mitch ell
Howa rd
Marti n
And rews
Lo s Medan os
San d Du nes
#
Bu ckw heat
San d Du nes W .
Bi g S prin g
Lo we
Moore
Fou ler
La ngl ie-M att ix
Whi te Ci ty
Univ Block
Marti n
And rews S
Em m a
Dol larhi de
Midl and F arm s
Jalm at
Em b ar
Y#
#
MID LAND
N. Cowd en
New M exico
Texas
Gold s mi th E
Rhod es
Bru s hy D raw
Goldsmith
mas on
El Mar
TX L
Keysto n
Ford W
E. Ford
Ford Ger al din e
Ect or
John son
Y
#
Head lee
Kerm it
Jes s Bu rner
Fost er
# West O dess a
Harp er
Hend rick
Em p eror
Midl and
Sterl ing
25
20
15
10
Anthropogenic CO2
Dora R obert s
Win kler
Lo vin g
Glass cock
# ODES SA
CO2 Deliveries (106t/y)
# Ros well
S. Cowden
Park s
Cong er
Chap m an D eep
hall ey
Ken Regan
Arenoso
Sweet ie P eck
Two F reds*
Jorda n
Moha ns
Wadd ell*
Pega su s
Wad dell*
Spra berry
Sug g Ran ch
Dun e
Val Verde Basin
Gas Processing
Plants
5
Calvi n
Univ Wad del l
N. Ward Estes*
Leo Thom p so n
Tren d
San d H ills
Crane
Culb ers on
Run nin g W
Ba rst ow
#
Pecos
Wils h ire
Ward s
Upt on
McEl roy
Reagan
Shi pley
Iri on
Ama cker- Tipp ett
Cor dona L ake
Ben edu m
Ketch um Mt
Bi g Lak e
Pecos V alley
Reeves
Natural CO2
Bravo Dome
Sheep Mountain
McElmo Dome
E. Penw el l
Vermej o
0
McCan ey
N. Crossett
Mid Crossett
Ami go
S. Crossett
David s on R anch
Pu cket t F ield
Pik es Pea k
El si nore
Ozon a
Sou th Branch
Texas
Mexico
Gulf
of
Mexico
Terrel l
Source: Shell CO2 Company
Advanced Resources International
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
Crocket t
Pecos
Oat es
1988
Oklahoma
1987
Jeff Dav is
New
Mexico
1986
Sha nn on
Ols on
Half e
1985
Year
To borg
Yates*
McCom b
1984
Farm er
World
World W
Ti pp ett
Gom ez
Fort S tock ton
“Early Action Credits”
U.S. Landfill Concern, Ontario Utility
Agree to Swap Gas-Emissions Rights
In a private exchange, anticipating an
international emission trading system:
Ontario Power Generation
bought rights to emit CO2 from
Zahren Alternative Power Corp.
2.5 MMt CO2 Equivalent
$25 MM Total Deal
$10/ton CO2 Equivalent
Advanced Resources International
West Coast Region
California Thermal EOR Production
• Though in decline, California accounts for over 98% of
Thermal EOR production in the USA
• 297,000 BOPD in 2002, down sharply from 372,000
BOPD in 2001 due to high fuel costs (natural gas).
• 3 fields account for >75% (Kern River, Midway-Sunset,
S. Belridge)
• 20,000 production wells and 16,000 steam injection wells
• Well-characterized resource base for future CO2 flooding.
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BP CSEGR Project
“In Salah” Gas Field, Algeria
• Will be first commercial CSEGR project
• Expecting CO2 breakthrough in 5-10 years.
Advanced Resources International
Modified by permission from Espie, Dublin CCP Workshop, Sept 2003
Economic Analysis of CSEGR at California Depleting Gas Field
Wellhead CH4 Sales Price ($/MMBtu)
$5.50
$5.00
ECONOMIC
EC
SUBECONOMIC
EC
SUB
SUB
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
CO2/CH4 Volume Ratio = 3.0
CO2/CH4 Volume Ratio = 2.0
CO2/CH4 Volume Ratio = 1.5
$3.00
Improved Production Technology
$2.50
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Breakeven CO2 Supply Cost ($/t; pure, high-P, at pipeline)
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Location of ECBM Pilots
San Juan Basin, USA
CO
Pip
2
La
P
la
ta
R
iv
Pagosa
Springs
er
BP Tiffany
Unit Pilot
Florida
Gas
Plant
F
as
IR
W
A
30
Y
m
s
ile
COLORADO
NEW MEXICO
Burlington
Allison
Unit Pilot
Dulce
Aztec
an
im
A
River
Ju
An
ARCHULETA CO.
eli Durango
ne
River
McElmo
Dome
CO2 Field
LA PLATA CO.
Farmington
San
JAF01664.CDR
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Burlington Resources Allison Unit CO2-ECBM Pilot, San Juan Basin
#112
Production Well
0
#142
3500ft CO2 Injector
3000ft
N05E
N80E
#114
Production Well
Depth (ft)
200
2800
2900'
2965'
2965'
3000
3038'
3030'
3124'
3200
TD=3148'
CH4
CO2
3049'
CO2
3078'
3092'
3104'
Fruitland
Coal Seam
CH4
3059'
3077'
3149'
TD=3149'
3328'
3400
JAF01665.CDR
3385'
TD=3390'
Note: Depths, elevations, thicknesses
expressed in feet
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Western Washington
Enhanced CBM
Potential
• Regional geology
• Coal reservoir
properties
• CBM pilot performance
• Potential reserves and
deliverability
• Market assessment
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Conclusions:
EOR
 Proven technology but not yet in West Coast.
 California depleted oil fields mainly immiscible,
some miscible potential.
 Field demo needed.
CSEGR
 Good potential in Calif, possible OR/WA/AZ/AK
 Not commercially proven, watch BP Algeria project
ECBM
 Not commercially proven.
 Limited West Coast deep coal potential (Western Washington)
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Resources
International
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