Transcript Slide 1
HOW WELL IS NEW JERSEY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE
May 2011
Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?
A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school – such as an associate’s or bachelor’s degree, certificate, license, or completion of an apprenticeship or significant on-the-job training.
Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school without the knowledge and skills required for success, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.
The best way to prepare students for life after high school is to align K-12 and postsecondary expectations. All students deserve a world class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.
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A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS
The changing economy is accelerating the expectations gap, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills.
Jobs in Today’s (and Tomorrow’s) Workforce Require More Education and Training
Source:
Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010).
Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018.
Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
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The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs
High-skill jobs
Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories. Often require four-year degrees and above
Middle-skill jobs
Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.
Low-skill jobs
Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.
Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, significant on-the-job training.
Source:
Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009).
The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs.
Brookings Institution. 5
Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level
Source:
National Skills Coalition (2010).
The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap.
http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition (2011).
State Middle Skill Fact Sheets
. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/ 6
Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces New Jersey’s Supply
I n 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, less than 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.
One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level. 81% of New Jersey’s jobs are middle- or high-skill
(jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).
Yet only 45% of New Jersey’s adults have some postsecondary degree
(associate’s or higher).
Sources:
Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003).
Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform.
Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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Education and Training Beyond High School Is Increasingly Being Demanded
Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition.
http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm
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The Jobs of Tomorrow
New Jersey should be preparing students for the jobs of tomorrow, not the jobs of yesterday – or even today.
A quarter of American workers are now in jobs not even listed in the Census Bureau’s occupation codes in 1967. Given the growth of new job sectors – most notably “green jobs” – it is common sense to provide all students with a strong foundation that keeps all doors open and all opportunities available in the future.
Source:
Milano, Jessica, Bruce Reed & Paul Weinstein Jr. (Sept 2009).
A Matter of Degrees: Tomorrow’s Fastest Growing Jobs and Why Community College Graduates Will Get Them.
The New Democratic Leadership Council.
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The Public Agrees That Education or Training Beyond High School is Necessary for Future Success
87% 89% To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education.
To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school. Source:
Achieve, Inc. (2010).
Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda.
http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf
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America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment 0 10 20 % Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree 30 40 50 % Adults (25-64) with College Degree
Source:
OECD.
Education at a Glance 2010
. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment
9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 % of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006) 55-64
U.S. (40%) Canada (40%) N.Z. (34%) Finland (29%) Australia (28%) Norway (28%) Switz. (27%) U.K. (27%) Sweden (26%) Neth. (26%) Denmark (26%) Japan (26%) Germany (24%)
45-54
Canada (44%) Japan (43%) U.S. (40%) N.Z. (38%) Finland (37%) Australia (33%) Denmark (32%) Norway (32%) Switz. (31%) Neth. (31%) Iceland (30%) U.K. (30%) Belgium (29%)
35-44
Canada (54%) Japan (48%) Finland (44%) U.S. (43%) Korea (43%) N.Z. (40%) Norway (38%) Australia (38%) Denmark (37%) Ireland (37%) Switz. (36%) Iceland (36%) Belgium (35%)
25-34
Korea (58%) Canada (56%) Japan (55%) N.Z. (48%) Norway (46%) Ireland (45%) Denmark (43%) Belgium (42%) Australia (42%) U.S. (42%) Sweden (41%) France (41%) Neth. (40%)
ALL (25-64)
Canada (49%) Japan (43%) U.S. (41%) N.Z. (40%) Finland (37%) Korea (37%) Norway (36%) Australia (36%) Denmark (34%) Ireland (34%) Switz. (34%) U.K. (33%) Belgium (32%)
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Iceland (24%) Sweden (28%) U.K. (33%) Spain (39%) Neth. (32%)
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Belgium (22%) Ireland (27%) Sweden (33%) Luxembourg (39%) Sweden (32%)
45-64: New Jersey (42%) NJ (47%) NJ (46%) NJ (45%) Source:
OECD.
Education at a Glance 2010.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance 2010_eag-2010-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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FAR TOO MANY STUDENTS DROP OUT OR GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL UNPREPARED FOR REAL WORLD CHALLENGES
Of Every 100 9 th Graders in New Jersey… 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 82 58 41
9th Graders Graduate High School in 4 Years Enroll in College In the Fall Still Enrolled Sophomore Year of College
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Earn a College Degree
Source:
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008).
Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College.
http://www.higheredinfo.org
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Achievement Remains Low: 8 th Grade Achievement Over Time
% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP 8 th Grade Math
New Jersey U.S.
8 th Grade Reading
New Jersey U.S.
8 th Grade Science
New Jersey U.S.
1992
24% 21%
1998
n/a 33%
1996
n/a 29%
Source:
National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/
2009
44% 34%
2009
42% 32%
2009
34% 30% 15
And Gaps Persist: New Jersey’s 8 th Grade Achievement Gap
Subgroup
All Students White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian
% At or Above Proficient on 8th Grade NAEP 8 th Grade Math (2009)
44% 54% 17% 22% 77% n/a
8 th Grade Reading (2009)
42%
8 th Grade Science (2009)
35% 51% 17% 20% 64% n/a 44% 8% 13% 58% n/a
Source:
National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/ 16
High School Graduation Rates Remain Inequitable in New Jersey
69% 83% 77%
U.S.
NJ All
88% 54% 67% 56% 66%
Black
81%
Hispanic
86% 51%
Asian n/a American Indian 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% White
Source:
Education Week (2007).
Graduation in the United States
. http://www.edweek.org/media/ew/dc/2010/34sos_gradrate.pdf
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America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates New Jersey U.S.
Korea Poland Canada Israel Germany Denmark Ireland Norway Netherlands U.K.
Iceland 0 20 40 % Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+ 60 80 % Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+
Source:
OECD.
Education at a Glance 2010
. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2010_eag-2010-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness
Percentage of U.S. first-year students in two-year and four-year institutions requiring remediation Source:
National Center for Education Statistics (2003).
Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.
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Freshmen at Two-Year Colleges are More Likely to Require Remediation
35% Percentage of U.S. first-year students requiring remediation, by institution type 42% 16%
Math
23% 9% 20%
Writing
6%
Reading
20%
Reading, Writing or Math 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Public 2-Year Colleges Public 4-Year Colleges
Source:
National Center for Education Statistics (2003).
Remedial Education at Degree Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000.
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Many College Students Fail to Return Their Sophomore Year and Go On To Earn Degrees
54% 58%
Year)
75%
Persistence (2-
82% 56% 62%
Persistence (4 Year) Completion (4 Year) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Source:
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008).
Retention Rates First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year
;
Graduation Rates
. http://www.higheredinfo.org/ 21
Many College Students Fail to Earn a Degree in New Jersey
Percent of students earning a bachelor’s degree within six years in New Jersey, 2007 Source:
NCES.
IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey,
analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.
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The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses, Particularly in Mathematics
Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work … Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math Science English Source:
Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005).
Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work?
Washington, DC: Achieve. 23
A MORE RIGOROUS & RELEVANT HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION WILL OPEN DOORS FOR STUDENTS – AND KEEP THEM OPEN
Personal Benefits of Education in New Jersey
While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience. The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:
More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.
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Personal Benefits of Education in New Jersey
New Jersey Statistics: Total Unemployment: 11%, Mean Income: $55,535
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau (2010).
Current Population Survey
. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstc/cps_table_creator.html
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Benefits to Education
Source:
Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010).
Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018.
Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.
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New Jersey’s Students Taking College Admissions Exams
2010 Participation in ACT Average ACT Score Participation in SAT Average SAT Score New Jersey
17% 23.2
76% 1506
U.S.
47% 21 47% 1509
Source:
ACT (2010).
ACT 2009 Results
. http://www.act.org/news/data/09/states.html ; College Board.
Mean 2010 SAT Scores by State
. http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/2010-sat-trends.pdf
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Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark
Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.
Source:
ACT (2010).
College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State
. http://www.act.org/news/data/10/benchmarks.html?utm_campaign=cccr10&utm_source=data10_l eftnav&utm_medium=web#benchmark 29
Students Participating in Advanced Placement and Exceeding College and Career Readiness
Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2008) Source:
College Board (2011).
AP Report to the Nation.
http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/7th-annual-ap-report-to-the-nation-2011.pdf
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THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP
All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.
The College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers.
Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma.
Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems.
Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.
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New Jersey’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date
In 2007, New Jersey adopted academic standards in math and English aligned with college- and career-ready expectations.
New Jersey adopted the Common Core State Standards in June 2010.
New Jersey is a Governing State in the Partnership for Assessment of College and Career Readiness (PARCC), a consortium of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.
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How New Jersey Can Continue to Build on its Momentum…
…Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes.
…Adopt college- and career-ready graduation requirements, aligned to the Common Core State Standards, to ensure all students are prepared, and eligible, for entry into college and skilled careers.
…Remain committed to the goals of the PARCC Consortium and to developing a next-generation, computer-based assessment system that is anchored in college and career readiness and will measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards …Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around the matching of student-level data across K-12 and postsecondary data systems.
…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness.