Transcript Ensuring the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES

Ensuring the Climate Record from the
NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft:
Elements of a Strategy to Recover Measurement
Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring
Antonio J. Busalacchi, Jr.
Director, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
University of Maryland, College Park
I. Background and Charge
Present Report—NASA and NOAA Asked Committee To:
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“Prioritize capabilities, especially those related to climate research, that were lost or placed
at risk following recent changes to NPOESS and the GOES-R series of polar and
geostationary environmental monitoring satellites…; and”
“Present strategies to recover these capabilities”
“Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R
Spacecraft”: 3-day workshop in June 2007
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Workshop report summarized proceedings, but did not provide findings or
recommendations
“In conducting its assessment, the committee will build on information from the workshop
that will be conducted in June 2007 by the separately appointed NRC Panel on Options to
Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft and on the panel’s
report expected to be issued in August 2007.”
NRC Decadal Survey, Earth Science and Applications from Space: January 2007
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Report largely completed prior to June 2006 Nunn-McCurdy actions and Sept. 2006
cancelation of HES on GOES-R
“Included in this assessment will be the committee’s analysis of the capabilities and
timeliness of the portfolio of missions recommended in the 2007 Earth Science and
Applications from Space decadal survey to recover these capabilities, especially those
related to research on Earth’s climate, and the potential role of existing and planned
spacecraft operated by international partners and the role of existing and planned civil U.S.
spacecraft.”
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II. Context for this Analysis
June 2006—Nunn-McCurdy Certification
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Planned acquisition of 6 spacecraft reduced to 4
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Three sun-synchronous orbit planes reduced to two; use of European
Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellites to provide data for the
canceled mid-morning orbit
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Launch of first NPOESS spacecraft delayed until 2013
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Program refocused on “core” requirements related to the acquisition of data
to support numerical weather prediction
Several sensors were canceled (in common parlance, “demanifested”) or
degraded (“descoped”) in capability
“Secondary” (non-core) sensors that would provide crucial continuity to
certain long-term climate records, as well as other sensors that would have
provided new measurement capabilities, were not funded in the certified
NPOESS program
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Pre-Certification Configuration
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Post-Certification Configuration
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NPOESS Instrument Assignments, PreNunn-McCurdy
AM, C3 & C6
MID-AM, C1, C4
PM, C2 & C5
Comments
VIIRS
VIIRS
*VIIRS
Imager
CrIS
CrIS
ATMS
*ATMS
Hyperspectral
Souder
Microwave
Sounder
Conical Scan
Microwave
CMIS
CMIS
CMIS
SESS
SESS subset
(C4 Only)
SESS
Space Weather
*OMPS
(both Limb & Nadir)
Ozone
SARSAT
SARSAT
SARSAT
Sea/Air Rescue
ADCS
ADCS
ADCS
Data Collection
Services
TSIS
Solar Radiation
ERBS
ALT
APS
DMSP
Previous Satellites in Similar Orbits
POES, DMSP
POES, NPP
Terra
Aqua
Earth
Radiation Balance
Radar
Altimeter
Aerosol
Polarimetry Sensor
Previous Satellites
in this orbital slot
NPOESS Program Summary prior to the June 2006 Nunn-McCurdy program review and
revisions. With the exception of CrIS, ATMS, and SESS, all key operational instruments,
including SARSAT and ADCS, were intended to be flown on all three orbits. Instruments to be
flight tested on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite are identified by an asterisk (*).
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NPOESS Instrument Assignments, PostNunn-McCurdy
AM, C2 & C4
MID-AM, METOP
PM, C1 & C3
Comments
VIIRS
AVHRR/3
*VIIRS
Imager
IASI
CrIS
AMSU
*ATMS
ASCAT
CMIS-Lite
(not ready for C1)
Hyperspectral
Sounder
Microwave
Sounder
Additional Legacy
Sounders
GPS occultation
soundings
Conical Scan
Microwave
SEM-2
SEM-2
SESS replacement
GOME
*OMPS (Nadir)
Column Ozone
SARSAT
SARSAT
SARSAT
Sea/Air Rescue
ADCS
ADCS
ADCS
Data Collection
HIRS
MHS
GRAS
CMIS-Lite
SESS
SESS
TSIS
OMPS
(limb)
ALT
ERBS
Non-manifested
Instruments
(integration possible
with additional
external funding))
APS
DMSP
Previous Satellites in Similar Orbits
Terra
POES, NPP
POES, DMSP
Aqua
Previous Satellites
in this orbital slot
Status as of 10/2006. The mid-morning satellite coverage will be provided by the European
METOP satellite series (shaded in blue), with de-scoped NPOESS satellites covering the early
morning and afternoon orbits. Instruments to be flight tested on the NPOESS Preparatory
Project (NPP) satellite are identified by an asterisk (*). Instruments highlighted in orange have
been removed from the core NPOESS program plan.
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Nunn-McCurdy Certification-1
Microwave Radiometry
Related NPOESS Sensor
CMIS
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A reduced capability sensor”
CMIS canceled; descoped MIS instrument to be included on
C2 and later platforms
Climate Applications
Sea-surface temperature and wind, sea ice extent, snow cover,
soil wetness, atmospheric moisture
Radar Altimetry
Related NPOESS Sensor
ALT
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Climate Applications
Sea level height, regional ocean currents, basin-scale ocean
circulation
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Nunn-McCurdy Certification-2
Earth Radiation Budget
Related NPOESS Sensor
ERBS
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Climate Applications
Earth radiation budget at the top and bottom of the atmosphere
Hyperspectral Diurnal Coverage
Related NPOESS Sensor
CrIS/ATMS
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A reduced coverage sensor”
Climate Applications
Vertical temperature and moisture profiles, outgoing
longwave radiation, greenhouse gas amounts, cloud
properties, precipitation
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Nunn-McCurdy Certification-3
Solar Irradiance
Related NPOESS Sensor
TSIS
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Climate Applications
Total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance
Aerosol Properties
Related NPOESS Sensor
APS
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Climate Applications
Aerosol properties
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Nunn-McCurdy Certification-4
Ocean Color
Related NPOESS Sensor
VIIRS
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A reduced coverage sensor”
Performance degradation is also expected
Climate Applications
Aerosols, ocean color
Ozone Profiles
Related NPOESS Sensor
OMPS-Limb
Post-Nunn-McCurdy Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Now restored to NPP
Climate Applications
Ozone profiles
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Cancelation of HES on GOES-R
Geostationary Advanced Hyperspectral Sounding
Related GOES-R Sensor
HES
Current Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Climate Applications
High temporal resolution temperature and moisture profiles
for process studies
Geostationary Coastal Waters Imagery
Related GOES-R Sensor
HES-CWI
Current Status
“A demanifested sensor”
Climate Applications
Ocean primary productivity and the carbon cycle
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III. Climate Capabilities
Prioritization and Recovery
Analysis Process
Measurements/Sensors the Committee
Considered Relevant to Climate Science
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With respect to changes in the NPOESS program:
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Aerosol Properties and the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS)
Earth Radiation Budget and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy
System/Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (CERES/ERBS)
Hyperspectral Diurnal Coverage and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS)
Microwave Radiometry and the Conical Scanning Microwave
Imager/Sounder (CMIS),
Ocean Color and the Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)
Ozone Profiles and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite-Limb (OMPS-L)
Sensor
Radar Altimetry and the ALT Sensor
Total Solar Irradiance and the Total Solar Irradiance Monitor (TIM)/Spectrally
Resolved Irradiance and the Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM).
With respect to changes in the GOES-R program:
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Geostationary Hyperspectral Sounding and the HES Sensor
Geostationary Coastal Waters Imagery and the HES-CWI Sensor
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Working Definition of Climate
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Consistent with the CCSP, the Committee understood “climate” to be
“the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of
relevant measures of the atmosphere–ocean system over periods of
time ranging from weeks to thousands or millions of years”.
The Committee interpreted the information needed for climate
research broadly to be that which enables:
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Detection of variations in climate (through long-term records)
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Climate predictions and projections
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Improved understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological
processes involved in climate variability and change.
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Ground Rules for Prioritization
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The objective of the committee’s deliberations would be to prioritize for the restoration
of climate capabilities. For example, although a sensor with the capability to improve
resolution of fast climate processes is of interest to both the weather forecasting and
the climate research communities, it is the value to the latter that would inform the
committee’s ranking.
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The particular strategy for recovery and the cost of recovery of a
measurement/sensor would not be a factor in the ranking. The committee did not
have access to the ongoing NASA-NOAA study for OSTP that is examining the cost
of various recovery strategies.
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Measurements/sensors on NPOESS would not be ranked against
measurements/sensors on GOES-R; however, the criteria used in ranking
measurements/sensors for either program would be identical.
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When it was relevant, the measurement objectives of a particular sensor, and not the
sensor itself, would be the basis for consideration. Thus, for example, members of
the committee considered the importance of radar altimetry to climate science, rather
than the importance of the particular implementation of this capability on NPOESS—
that is, the ALT instrument.
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Prioritization Process
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Before restructuring, each of the lost or degraded
measurement capabilities had been considered
both practicable and of high importance. However,
given that a wholesale reversal of the program
changes was not feasible, it became the
committee’s difficult task to provide a prioritized set
of recommendations for restoration of climate
measurement capabilities.
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Results of 2 Separate Prioritizations*
NPOESS
(LEO)
Tier 1
GOES-R
(GEO)
Microw ave Radiometry
Radar Altimetry
Earth Radiation Budget
Tier 2
Geostationary
Hyperspectral
Sounding
Hyperspectral Diurnal Coverage
Total Solar Irradiance
Tier 3
Aerosol Properties
Ocean Color
Ozone Profiles
Tier 4
Increasing
Priority
Geostationary
Coastal Waters
Imagery
*Based on needs of climate science w/o considering cost
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Summary of Issues Noted by June 2007
Workshop Participants
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Preservation of long-term climate records
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The potential benefits of relatively minor and low-cost changes to the NPOESS program
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Although NPP- and NPOESS-derived environmental data records (EDRs) may have considerable scientific
value, climate data records are far more than a time series of EDRs
The specifications of the MIS instrument
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For example, long-term records of sea level and ocean vector winds require different orbits and/or
instruments to address critical climate observation needs.
The challenge of creating climate data records
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Formation flight can allow for the synergistic combination of measurements from multiple satellites,
sometimes launched years apart.
Mitigation options beyond changes to NPOESS
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For example, improving prelaunch characterization and documentation of all NPOESS instruments, adding
minor software improvements to VIIRS to make the data more climate-relevant, and downlinking fullresolution spectral data from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) to enable creation of additional climate
products.
The potential role of spacecraft formation flying in mitigation strategies
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Demanifesting of climate sensors from NPOESS has placed many long-term climate records at risk, including
multidecadal records of total solar irradiance, Earth radiation budget, sea surface temperature, and sea ice
extent.
Retain all-weather SST retrieval capability via 6.9 GHz channel
Sustaining climate observations
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Balance between new and sustained climate observations and managing infusion of technology into longterm observational programs (including the challenges of doing so with a multispacecraft—block-buy—
procurement).
Accommodating research needs within an operational program.
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President’s FY 09 Budget Addresses Some
of the Committee and Decadal Survey
Recommendations
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OSTP Press Release, 2/1/08: “The Administration has concluded that the
highest near-term priorities are to sustain the datasets from three key climate
measurement capabilities:
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Total solar irradiance (measured by the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor, or TSIS);
Earth radiation budget data (from the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System sensor,
or CERES); and
Ozone vertical profile data (from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb sensor, or
OMPS-Limb).”
President’s FY09 Request Adds $74 M to NOAA
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CERES: FM-5 will be flown on NASA’s NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite,
set to launch in 2010, while another CERES instrument will be built for the first
NPOESS satellite (currently planned for 2013 launch)
TSIS: FY09 funds will support instrument development and ongoing analyses to
identify a suitable satellite platform for hosting this sensor, as well as beginning the
necessary integration work for this effort…the Administration also has identified
FY2008 funds required to execute this plan.
OMPS-Limb: Funding provided in 2007 to fly instrument on the NPP spacecraft.
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Restoration of Climate Capabilities on
NPOESS Spacecraft Does Not Address
An Underlying Problem
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There are structural problems associated with the provision of
climate-quality measurements from systems designed to meet
national objectives more closely associated with the needs of
the operational weather forecast community.
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“There is a lack of clear agency responsibility for sustained
research programs and the transitioning of proof-of-concept
measurements into sustained measure-ment systems…The
elimination of the requirements for climate research-related
measurements on NPOESS is the most recent example of the
failure to sustain critical measurements.” (From the Decadal
Survey.)
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NPOESS Lacks Essential Features of a
Well-Designed Climate-Observing System
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NPOESS program lacks a transparent program for monitoring sensor
calibration and performance and for verifying the products of analysis
algorithms. Moreover, it lacks the direct involvement of scientists who have
heretofore played a fundamental role in developing climate-quality records
from space-borne observations.
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NOAA plans for scientific-data stewardship are in their infancy; their
commitment to ensuring high-quality CDRs remains untested and
inadequately funded.
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NPOESS does not ensure the overlap that is required to preserve climate
data records (CDRs). Instead, the NPOESS system is designed for launch
on failure of a few key sensors. Failure of NPOESS instruments required
for CDRs will probably result in gaps of many months, which will make it
difficult to connect long-term climate records and future measurements.
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NPOESS Lacks Essential Features of a WellDesigned Climate-Observing System—Con’t
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The NPOESS commitment to radiometric calibration is unclear, particularly
for the VIIRS visible and near-infrared channels used to determine surface
albedo, ocean color, cloud properties, and aerosol properties, with only
preflight calibrations, leaving the in-orbit calibrations of those channels to
drift. Furthermore, in its current configuration, VIIRS lacks the channels
now on MODIS in the 6.3-μm band of water vapor used to detect clouds in
polar regions and in the 4.3- and 15-μm bands of CO2 used to obtain cloud
heights, particularly heights of relatively thin cirrus.
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NPOESS only partly addresses the needed measurements of the stratosphere and upper troposphere. The primary variables of the stratosphere-temperature, ozone abundance, and some aerosol properties--will not be
provided by NPOESS, because of the loss of OMPS-L, APS, and
CrIS/ATMS. Other elements are poorly addressed by NPOESS plans,
notably measurements of upper-troposphere and stratosphere water vapor,
aerosols, and the abundance of ozone-depleting compounds.
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Elements of a Long-term Climate
Strategy: A Way Forward
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Sustained Climate Observations
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National Policy for Provision of Long-term Climate Measurements
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A long-term climate strategy must provide for the essential characterization,
calibration, stability, continuity, and data systems required to support climate
applications.
Much of climate science depends on long-term, sustained measurement
records. Yet, as has been noted in many previous NRC and agency reports,
the nation lacks a clear policy to address these known national and
international needs.
Clear Agency Roles and Responsibilities
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Institutions have responsibilities that are in many cases mismatched with
their authorities and resources: institutional mandates are inconsistent with
agency charters, budgets are not well matched to emerging needs, and
shared responsibilities are supported inconsistently by mechanisms for
cooperation.
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Elements of a Long-term Climate
Strategy: A Way Forward—Con’t
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International Cooperation
 The absence of an internationally agreed upon and ratified
strategy for climate observations from space remains an area of
grave concern. The research and operational agencies should
coordinate their development, operations, standards, and
products with international partners.
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Community Involvement in the Development of Climate Data
Records
 The implied demise of climate-focused satellite observations from
NPOESS, a consequence of the Nunn-McCurdy certification,
adds to the ongoing concern about the lack of organized
commitment to CDR development. It has been stressed in many
NRC and other reports that generation of CDRs requires
considerable scientific insight, including the blending of multiple
sources of data; error analysis; and access to raw data.
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Restructuring the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite
System 2/1/2010
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Restructuring the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite
System 2/1/2010
•Restructured 2006: Six main satellites in three orbits to four satellites in two orbits.
•As of February, 2010, Air Force and NOAA will no longer jointly procure the polar
orbiting satellite system known as NPOESS
•NOAA and NASA have primary responsibility for afternoon orbit (Joint Polar
Satellite System)
•DOD will take primary responsibility for morning orbit
•Shared ground systems
•In near term DoD will continue with DMSP
•NPOESS bus going away, NOAA will use a modified NPP bus
•Unclear if DOD will fly a VIIR or MIS
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Restructuring the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System
2/1/2010
•NOAA may rely on AMSR rather than fly a MIS
•At present only two climate quality MW radiometers, AMSR-E on Aqua and
Windsat on Coriolis
:
•AMSR-2 to fly on GCOM-W but not before 2012
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Restructuring the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite
System 2/1/2010
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