Transcript ｽﾗｲﾄﾞ ﾀｲﾄﾙなし

Tsunami Advisory Information
for the Northwest Pacific and
Indian Oceans issued by the
Japan Meteorological Agency
Yuji NISHIMAE
Japan Meteorological Agency
Contents
• JMA Tsunami Warning Service
• Techniques for determination of hypocenter
and magnitude of distant earthquakes
• Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory
• Tsunami Watch Information for the Indian
Ocean
• Summary
JMA Tsunami Warning Service
Seismological
Data
JMA
Tsunami
Warning to
Japan
Northwest
Pacific
Tsunami
Advisory
Sea Level
Data
Tsunami Watch
Information to
the Indian
Ocean Countries
Exchange of Information
・Hypocenter
・Magnitude
・Tsunami Observation
Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center/NOAA
Sequence of Tsunami Warning
Generation
of
Tsunami
Occurrence
of
Earthquake
Detection
of
Seismic Wave
Components of
tsunami warning system
Seismic Network
Real time data transmission
(Propagation)
Determination
of
Real time data processing system
Location and Magnitude
Evaluation
of
Expected Tsunami
Detection
of
Tsunami at sea
level station
Issuance
of
Tsunami Warning
Re-evaluation
of
Tsunami
Update
of
Tsunami Information
Sea Level Data to monitor tsunami
Techniques for determination of
hypocenter and magnitude of
distant earthquakes
Global Seismological Network (IRIS/USGS,
IRIS/IDA)
Worldwide Network (Broadband Stations)
IRIS/USGS seismic data via the Internet.
Analyzing the Location of the Earthquake
Comparison with Epicenters (USGS)
USGS
JMA
Calculation of Mwp
1.4
1.2
P
S
Magnification
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 -3
10
10
-2
-1
10
Frequency(Hz)
10
0
10
1
Frequency response of the filter
applied to the seismic wave data
P
S
Seismic wave form of UD component of STS2 seismometer
Mw : moment magnitude
Mw=a*log(A)+b*sin(Δ/2)+c A : root mean square amplitude of UD co
Δ : epicentral distance in degree
Empirical formula for Mwp
P-S
8.5
8.5
8
8
7.5
7.5
7
7
Mw(Mat)
Mw(Mat)
3minutes
6.5
6.5
6
6
5.5
5.5
5
5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Mw(Harvard)
7.5
8
8.5
Mw=0.82027log(A)+1.04289log(sin(Δ/2))+5.62775
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
Mw(Harvard)
8
8.5
Mw=0.83419og(A)+0.98455log(sin(Δ/2))+5.63274
Mw : moment magnitude
A : root mean square amplitude of UD component of STS2
Δ : epicentral distance in degree
Comparison with Mw(Harvard)
8.5
8.0
Mwp (JMA)
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
M w (H arvard)
8.0
8.5
Tsunami Forecast Operation
Numerical Simulation
Tsunami Warning
Retrieve from the database of tsunami height
referring to the location and magnitude of the
earthquake
Major Tsunami
Tsunami
Tsunami Attention
8m以上
8m以上
8m～2m
4m～2m
2m～1m
1m以下
8m～2m
4m～2m
2m～1m
1m以下
8m以上
データベース
Tsunami
Database
8m～2m
4m～2m
2m～1m
1m以下
Issuance of tsunami warning which
contains forecasted arrival time and
tsunami height in each coastal region (66
regions in Japan)
Setting Fault Models
Assumed Epicenter:
41
Magnitude：
7.0, 7.5, 8.0, 8.5
Depth ：
0, 20, 40,60,80,100km
CMT analysis
YAK
• Length of Data
ULN
ULN
YAK
– 20 minutes
– 30 minutes
4000
4000
2000
2000
0
0
-2000
-2000
-4000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-4000
0
50
100
150
ULN
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
ULN
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
200
250
300
350
200
250
300
350
200
250
300
350
YAK
3000
4000
2000
2000
1000
0
0
-1000
-2000
-4000
-2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
YAK
6000
-3000
3000
2000
4000
1000
2000
0
0
-2000
-1000
-4000
-2000
-6000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-3000
MA2
KONO
MA2
KONO
400
1500
1000
200
500
0
0
-200
-500
-400
-1000
-600
-1500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
KONO
0
50
100
150
0
50
100
150
0
50
100
150
MA2
3000
2000
2000
1000
1000
0
0
-1000
-1000
-2000
-2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1500
2000
1000
0
500
-2000
-4000
0
-6000
-500
MA2
4000
KONO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Comparison between synthetic waves(red) and observed
waves(blue). Radial, transverse and vertical component
from top and bottom in each station.
Centroid
Moment
Tensor
Solution
JMA
Harvard
Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory
Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center
Japanese
Seismic
Network
Global
Seismic
Network
JMA Headquarters
Estimated
Tsunami
Arrival
Time and
Height
Information Exchange
- Magnitude
- Epicenter
- Tsunami Information
Pacific Tsunami Warning
Center (PTWC)
Countries in
Northwestern
Pacific Ocean
Contents of Northwest Pacific Tsunami
Advisory
• Source Parameters
– Origin time (UTC),
Coordinates (latitude,
longitude), Location name
of the epicenter , Depth (if
100km or more), magnitude
• Evaluation of
Tsunamigenic Potential
• Estimated heights and
arrival times
• Observations of tsunami
Responsible Coasts of NWPTAC
Sea Level Stations in the Pacific Ocean
Interim Provision of Tsunami Watch
Information for the Indian Ocean
Motivation for Interim Provision of Tsunami Watch
Information for the Indian Ocean Country
If a big tsunami were generated again
Need an Emergency Measure
Interim Provision of
Tsunami Watch Information
Tsunami Watch Information should be Regarded as
a Reference for Taking Preventive Measure against
Possible Tsunamis on the Responsibility and
Initiative of the Individual Countries
Indian Ocean region
(Currently available)
Seismic waveform data
Seismic waveform data
Japan
Meteorological
Agency
Collection via Internet
Dissemination of
Tsunami Watch
Information
(Enhancement of communication
facility of existing tide gauges)
Sea level data
Sea level data
Collection via Internet
or
Meteorological Satellites
Country
Country
Country
Pacific
Tsunami
Warning
Center
Through the Global
Telecommunication
System of WMO, E-mail
and/or Facsimile
National arrangements
on the responsibility and initiative
of the individual countries!
Recipient
Countries
Australia
Bangladesh
Comoros
East Timor
France
India
Indonesia
Iran
Kenya
Madagascar
Malaysia
Maldives
Mauritius
Iran
Mozambique
Myanmar
Oman
Pakistan
Seychelles
Singapore
Sri Lanka
South Africa
Tanzania
Thailand
United Arab
United
Yemen
Pakistan
Bangladesh
UAE
India
Oman
Thailand
Yemen
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Kenya
Tanzania
Myanmar
Seychelles
Comoros
Malaysia
Singapore
Chagos Archipelago
Indonesia
East Timor
Mayotte Island
Mozambique
Madagascar
Mauritius
Reunion Island
Australia
South Africa
Amsterdam Island
St. Paul Island
Crozet Island
Kerguren Island
Contents of TWI
• Source Parameters
– Origin time (UTC),
Coordinates (latitude,
longitude), Location name
of the epicenter , Depth (if
100km or more), magnitude
• Evaluation of
Tsunamigenic Potential
• Estimated Tsunami Travel
Time
• Observations of tsunami
Sea Level Stations in the Indian Ocean
Sea Level Data of M8.7 Sumatra Earthquake
on 28 March in the Indian Ocean
Sea level data （Indian Ocean）
1m
Colombo
Male
Hanimaadhoo
Gan
Port Louise
Port La Rue
Salalah
3/29
3/30
JST
The Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory
and the Tsunami Watch Information
Issued since March 2005
Advisory
Origin Time(UTC)
Latitude Longitude
M
Issued Time(UTC)
TWI
2005/4/10 10:29
-1.1
99.4
6.8
2005/4/10 10:56
TWI
2005/4/16 16:38
1.9
97.8
6.5
2005/4/16 16:59
TWI
2005/4/28 14:07
2.2
96.9
6.6
2005/4/28 14:30
TWI
2005/5/14 5:05
0.7
98.7
6.8
2005/5/14 5:32
TWI
2005/5/19 1:54
2.0
97.0
6.6
2005/5/19 2:15
TWI
2005/7/5 1:52
1.9
97.0
6.7
2005/7/5 2:15
TWI
2005/7/24 15:42
8.7
92.1
7.3
2005/7/24 16:02
NWPTA
2005/8/16 2:46
38.1
142.4
6.8
2005/8/16 2:55
NWPTA
2005/9/9 7:27
-4.6
153.3
7.3
2005/9/9 7:56
Elapsed Time until Issuance
ISSUE TIME (MIN.)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005/4/1
2005/5/21
2005/7/10
D A TE
TW I
N W P TA
2005/8/29
SUMMARY




NWPTA:2times, TWI: 7 times since March
Issuance within 30 minutes
No significant difference between JMA and
USGS, Harvard in location and magnitude
Improvement of accuracy of depth of an
earthquake