Transcript Реформирование российской электроэнерг

Power Sector Liberalization
and Climate Change:
The Russian Model
RAO UES
Anatoly Chubais, CEO
EEI International Utility Conference
London, March 11, 2008
1
Russian Power Sector and RAO UES
One of the world’s largest
markets…
Russia is the 4th largest electricity
market in the world
… is being served by the
world’s largest utility
Electricity output:
> 70% of Russia’s total
~5-6% of world generating
capacities
Heat output:
Average growth in electricity
~ 33% of Russia’s total
consumption: 2-4% p.a. since 2006
2
RAO UES: Pre-reform Model
Minority
Shareholders
Russian
Government
52%
48%
RAO UES
73 AO-Energos
Generation
Low voltage
& High
voltage
Grids
Supply
Centralised
Dispatch
High
Voltage
Grids
+
Grid
Services
32
Federal
Power
Plants
3
Basics of the Reform:
Monopolistic sectors
Competitive sectors
Separation of Monopolistic and Competitive Sectors
Generation
Private property
and
market
Supply
Dispatching
Transmission and Distribution
grids
Government property
and
Government regulation
4
Reform Opponents
Political and Business Elite Changed Their Standing on the Reform Essence
Conservatively-minded
energy specialists
and scientists
Majority of
regional Governors
VIPs
in the Government and
Kremlin
UES
Majority of senators
in the Federation Council
UES
Reform
Reform
Key
political factions
in the State Duma
Influential
oligarch groups
Majority of
minority
shareholders
2000 - 2008
5
Russian Power Sector: Post-reform Model
Monopolistic sectors
System
Operator
Competitive sectors
Federal Grid
Company
Competitive
market
6
14
Wholesale
GenCos
(OGKs)
Territorial
GenCos
(TGKs)
Rosenergoatom
(nuclear)
Hydro OGK
11
Interregional Distribution
Companies
(IDCs)
Private ownership
Independent
GenCos
Supply
Government ownership
6
Power Sector:
Functional, Legal and Ownership Unbundling
The issue is not settled yet for the majority of EU countries:
Ownership unbundling of VICs and spin-off of distribution grids
??
EU countries
Functional unbundling
Legal unbundling
Ownership unbundling
July 1,
2008
Russia
Deadline for ownership unbundling of RAO UES (Federal
Law No. 250, November 4, 2007)
7
Competitive Wholesale Market:
Supply/Demand Equation Prices
Average prices (Europe+Urals and Siberia), Euro/MWh
18
21
Week and month
Day (Apr 07)
18
15
15
12
12
9
6
9
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
6
01.10.07
08.10.07
15.10.07
22.10.07
29.10.07
24
Year
18
12
6
Sept.06 Oct.06 Nov.06 Dec.06 Jan .07 Feb .07 Mar .07 Apr .07 May.07 Jun .07 Jul .07 Aug.07 Sept.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan .08
Source: Administrator of Trade System (ATS)
Feb 08
.
8
Power Market Development
Pace of Liberalization: Government’s Plan and Actual Progress
100%
~90%
actual pace of liberalization (facts and estimates)
mandatory increase of the liberalized market share
80%
~70%
~60%
Excluding
electricity consumption by households
60%
~40%
80%
100%
100%
60%
50%
~35%
40%
~ 25%
~18%
~20%
(Sept 06)
(Jan 08)
20%
25%
30%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
Sept 1, 2006 Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2007 Jan 1, 2008 Jul 1, 2008 Jan 1, 2009 Jul 1, 2009 Jan 1, 2010 Jul 1, 2010 Jan 1, 2011

All new capacity and consumption commissioned after 2007 go to the free market
9
Electricity Market System: Target Model
Liberalized retail markets
as of September 1, 2006
Capacity market
2008
Competitive
wholesale
electricity
market
Ancillary service
market
2008
as of September 1,
2006
Derivative market
2008
10
Electricity Demand Growth Outlook:
Mid-term and Long-term View
Mid-term
Long-term
1,2
5
kWh, bln
Average annual increase in 2006-10:
3,5% (basic scenario)
1,1
1,120
%%
4,3
4
3,9
4
3,5
3,7
3
1,070
3
1,035
1,003
2
1
0,980
1
0,9
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2006-2010
Basic scenario
Source: UES estimates
2011-2015
2016-2020
Optimistic scenario
11
Prospects until 2030:
Target Concept, General Scheme, Investment Programs
2030
Target Concept for Development of the
Russian Electricity Power Sector until 2030
2020
General Scheme for
locating power capacity
until 2020
2010
2006-2010
Investment Program
of UES Holding
Company
2006
2006
5-year investment programs
of energy companies
from 2008
2010
2020
2030
12
CAPEX 2006-2010 – 93 bn Euro
Sources of Financing
Euro, bn
27.5 (29%)
22.9 (25%)
22.8 (25%)
15 (16%)
4.8 (5%)
0
10
Private investments
State budget financing
20
30
Credits and loans
Companies’ funds
40
Other
Total: ~93 bn Euro (private investments ~27.5 bn Euro)
13
Thermal Generation and Grid Assets:
Undervaluation and Growth Potential
1857
2000
EV/IC, Euro/kW
1500
(Feb 08, weighted average)
Thermal generation-2008:
Key growth drivers
Market liberalization causes a stable rise in electricity
prices
1099
1000
M&A. The approaching competitive sale of OGK and TGK
shares to strategic investors makes these assets more
attractive to portfolio investors
374
500
0
Thermal OGKs
and TGKs
Emerging markets
Developed
markets
Distribution grids-2008:
Key growth drivers:
25000
20000
Consolidation of 61 regional grid companies converted
into 11 interregional distribution companies (IDCs):
higher liquidity; lower cost of capital; entry of large
companies with a high free float into the stock market
RAB: higher transmission tariffs; optimized revenues, profits,
and investments of IDCs
Connection fees as an effective CAPEX mechanism
EV/length, Euro/km
22756
(Feb 08, weighted average)
15000
10000
8198
3199
5000
0
DisCo's
Emerging
markets
Developed
markets
14
Funds raised so far and yet to be raised
From Competitive Share Placements and Sales to Strategic Investors
30
27,5
Euro in billions
Fact:
UES estimates:
18.8 bn Euro
+ 8.5 bn Euro
20
10
0,4
4,2
2,4
1,7
3,1
2,0
1,1 0,7
1,5
0,8 0,4 0,4 0,7 1,3
0,7 1,2 0,4
0,6
0,5
0,2
Total: ~ 27.5 bn Euro
TGK-12
TGK-7
TGK-14
TGK-13
TGK-4
TGK-2
OGK-1
TGK-10
TGK-6
TGK-11
TGK-7
TGK-10
TGK-9
TGK-3
OGK-6
TGK-12
TGK-9
TGK-3
TGK-5
OGK-3
OGK-5
TGK-8
May May
08
08
OGK-2
Apr May
08 08
TGK-1
Nov Mar May May Jun Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08
08
OGK-4
0,7 0,3
OGK-3
0,3 0,2
0,3
OGK-5
0,5 0,8
0,4
15
2006-2010
RAO UES Capacity Commissioning Program
MW
Thermal generation
OGKs, TGKs, RAO UES
2010
2006-2010
2 050
5 788
14 364
24 934
690
420
1 224
1 612
4 013
2 235
2 470
7 089
15 919
28 947
2007
1 186
1 545
67
1 253
Hydro OGK
Total commissioning
2009
2006
2008
20,000
15,000
MW
10,000
5,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
16
RAO UES Investment Program for 2006-2010:
Higher Demand for Suppliers’ Products and Services *
Generation equipment
2010 vs. 2006
(Procurements of solely primary
generation equipment for OGKs and
TGKs):
~ 21.6 bn Euro
Construction materials
(Solely cement expenses of TPPs
and HPPs):
~ 0.3 bn Euro
4.5-fold
8-fold
Electrical equipment
(Procurements solely
for FGC):
~ 7.6 bn Euro
Coal:
~ 731 million
tonnes of coal
R&D
4-fold
Power Sector
Development
Program
(Solely in thermal power
sector):
~ 2 bn Euro
4-fold
40%
Construction and
installation
Gas:
~ 848 billion
cub.m. of gas
(Solely in thermal power
sector):
~ 9 bn Euro
30%
* Expert estimates
8-fold
17
Changes in the Power Generation Mix
Effects on Carbon Efficiency
2006
2020
50
Percent of total
41,5
40
30
2020 to 2006: Notes
33,2
32,2
25,1
Coal consumption
increased from 128 mn t
to 285 mn t (or by 123%)
20,5
15,9 17,5
20
Gas consumption
increased from 175 bn cu m
to 210 bn cu m (or by 20%)
14
Nuclear generation
increased from 23.5 GW
to 53.2 GW
10
0
Fossil fuel
generation:
66,6%
Gas generation
Coal generation
Non-fossil
fuel generation:
33,4%
Fossil fuel
generation:
65,5%
Non-fossil
fuel generation:
34,5%
Nuclear generation
Hydro generation and other renewable sources
Source: RAO UES
Hydro generation
increased from 44.9 GW
to 71.7 GW
18
Carbon Efficiency of the Russian Power Sector:
Strategy
Key challenges
Solutions
• Gas generation: Introduction of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT)
technologies
• A surge in power generation
• Coal generation: Introduction of clean coal technologies (CCT),
introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems
• Gas-to-coal substitution
(the gas share is 8% lower
and the coal share is 7% higher
in the generation mix by 2020)
1
0,8
0,73
• Other requisite measures:
- Development of economic and market-based mechanisms for environment
protection: CO2 emission tax; CO2 emission trading system
- Development of renewable energy sources (hydro, tidal, geothermal, wind)
Emission efficiency of the Power Sector
(CO2 emissions / Generation)
2005
2020
CO2
emissions,
mn t
794
552
783
Generation,
bn kWh
1082
953
1793
0,58
0,6
0,44
0,4
0,2
0
1990
1990
2005
2020 (est.)
Source: RAO UES
19
Russian Power Sector:
Changes and Estimates of GHG Emissions
(basic scenario)
900
CO2 equivalent, millions of tonnes
850
793.51 (1990)
1990 level
783.3 (2020)
800
750
Actual
Estimates
700
650
600
550
500
450
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
It is not until 2020 that the 1990 level of GHG emissions is exceeded
Source: RAO UES
20
Our journey is about to end
2008
2000
21