Transcript Entwicklungsperspektiven des Wuppertal Instituts: Erfolg

Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation (Work Package 3)
Screening of NEEAPs, Status Jan 2008
Presentation given at the
Interparliamentary Meeting on
RE and EE at the European
Sustainable Energy Week
2008
January 29, 2008
Brussels
Dr. Ralf Schüle
Senior Consultant and
Project Co-ordinator
Wuppertal Institute - RG II:
Energy, Transport and
Climate Policy
Daniel Becker
Senior Consultant
ECOFYS Germany GmbH
Tasks of Evaluation
Task 1: Definition of Criteria for Evaluation
Task 2: Evaluation of NEEAPs
 Screening (27)
 In depth-evaluation (10-12)
 Categorisation of energy efficiency measures
 Country reports
 Sectoral reports
 Update of evaluation after acceptance
Task 3: Highlighting Good Practice / What does not work
Task 4: Reporting and EEW-Brochures
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Time Schedule
Evaluation of NEEAPs
Tasks
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1. Criteria Development
2. Screening of NEEA Ps
3. In depth analysis/
sect oral analysis
4. Update of Evaluation
5. Deliverables
Screening
Count ry report s
Sect oral reports
Good Pract ice
Brochures
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9
10
11
12
Requirements of the ESD
 ESD requires MS to submit three NEEAPs to EC as of 2016
 The first NEEAP was due by June 30, 2007
 Only a few requirements for NEEAPs are preset:

National indicative annual energy savings target adopted for 2016
(GWh)

National intermediate indicative annual energy savings target
adopted for 2010 (GWh)

Energy efficiency improvement programmes, energy services, and
other measures planned for achieving the target

Measures to implement Article 7 addressing the public sector
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Criteria of Screening (1)
1.
Status and Design
1.1
Status of plan
1.2
Energy Savings (Target in TWh)
(1) percent of energy consumption (+/- 9%?)
(2) percent of saving potential
1.3
GHG impact, expected contribution to emissions reduction/
conversion factor used
1.4
Early Action / Additionality of Measures
1.5
Early Savings
1.6
Consistency of national to ESD targets
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Criteria of Screening (2)
2.
Effectiveness of instruments
2.1
Policy Packages per sector
2.2
Involvement of Energy Supply Sector
(qualitatively, covered sectors, fuels, %targets?)
2.3
Role of public sector
2.4
Role of Energy Services (acc. ESD)
2.5
Financing
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Criteria of Screening (3)
3.
Monitoring and Evaluation
3.1
Existence of ex ante estimates through sectors
3.2
Transparency of calculation
3.3
Plausibility of calculation
3.4
Information on evaluation and methodologies
(bottom up or/and top down)
3.5
Plausibility of methods
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First Impressions
 Only few MS took deadline seriously (5 still missing)
 Very heterogeneous designs, contents and levels of information
provided
 Illustrative and impressive collection of measures enables
international mutual learning
 In fact, collection of measures addressing broadens thinking about
EE from isolated measures to coherent policy packages
 In most cases, relationship between technical energy saving
potentials, energy saving targets and EEI-measures to be
implemented is weak or not transparent (to be shown more detailed
by EEW-evaluation)
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Country
Submission
Austria
Belgium
Jan 08
Criterion: Availability
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
2005 plan
Estonia
Draft/EEP
Finland
France
French, temp-doc.
Germany
Greece
Hungary
outline of plan
Dev. Plan, 15pp.
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Availability
inoff. Engl. version
not available
Malta
Netherlands
of 27 plans
 Four are not yet available,
 Five are only available as a
preliminary version / draft
 Two are not available in English
(as of January 15, 2008)
Poland
Portugal
not available
Romania
Slovakia
not available
Slovenia
Slovenian
Spain
Sweden
not available
UK
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Criterion: Energy Saving Target
Country
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
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Target
9%
9%
10%
9%
11%/2012
9%, not cons.
9%
no information
9%
9%
1%/a 2013
9%/12,5%
9.6 %
9%
11%
9%
9%
9%
Energy Saving Target
 Most of MS will achieve their target,
(to be verified whether compliance is realistic
on the basis of measures and packages listed)
 Some MS base their calculations
on national EE plans, partly not consistent
with ESD requirements
 Five MS want to overachieve the target
(UK, IRE, LIT, DEN, CYP)
11 % (for 2012)
9/18%
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Criterion: GHG-Impacts
Country
GHG-Impact
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
no information
no information
GHG-Emissions
 Only few MS explicitly calculate the GHG
effect of measures
single sectors
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Criterion: Additional Measures
Additional
Measures
Country
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
no early action
add. measures
no information
partly add. (5%)
Additional Measures

acc. div. sec. plans
Many add. measures


Most of MS distinguish between
measures already implemented and
additional measures
(mostly according to national EE
development plans or sectoral plans)
Good quantity of additional measures
to be implemented
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Criterion: Early Savings
Country
Early Savings
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
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43%
Early Savings
 Eight MS claim early savings (1995 pp.),
especially GER and AUT
45%
7%
calc. for measures
17%
since 2000
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Criterion: Policy Packages
Country
Policy Packages
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
"small package"
few supp. Measures
18 m. subd. in aims
agriculture?
Policy Packages
 In most of the MS, thinking in
„policy packages“ is basis of
domestic policy
(„small“ and „large“ packages)
 Agricultural sector underrepresented
(especially France and Poland)
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Criterion: Financing Energy Savings
Country
Financing
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
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Electr. Saving Trust
Financing
efficiency fund
credit fund
Only a few countries address
the issue of financing EE-measures
e.g. DEN, HUN, GER, UK
(not required)
carbon fund
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Criterion: Involvement of Energy Supplier
Country
E-supply
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
???
???
Energy act
Involvement of Energy Supplier
4.7%
In most of MS, energy suppliers are
or will be involved in the process of
implementation of EE policies,
partly quantified in its contribution,
partly as addressee of measures
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Criterion: Involvement of Public Sector
Country
Public Sector
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
???
2 measures
???
9% (incl. business)
section in plan
11.7% (incl. tertiary)
Public Sector
In most of MS, the public sector has been
assigned an important role in implementing
ee-policies
26% (incl. business)
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Criterion: Role of Energy Services
Country
E-Services
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
???
1 measure
Energy Services
In most NEEAPs,
the role of Energy services is neglected
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Criterion: Ex Ante Estimates
Ex Ante
Estimates
Country
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
each sector
Ex ante estimates
 Only half of MS conducted
ex ante estimates, related to potentials
 Urgent need for ISI-potential study (end Feb.)
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Criterion: Monitoring and Evaluation
Information
on Evaluation
Country
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
January, 16 2008
13% bottum up
bottum up
no info
mix of bu/td
bottum up, 37-50%
mostly bottum up
mostly bottum up
td in 3 sectors
Monitoring and Evaluation
AUT, BUL, CZ, GER, FIN, ITA, LAT, UK
provide information on evaluation methods
(mostly bottom up)
mostly bottum up
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Summary
Availability:
 11 of 27 plans are either not available, available as a preliminary version or are not
available in English (as of January 15, 2008)
Energy Saving Target:
 Most of MS will achieve their target, to be verified whether compliance is realistic on the
basis of the measures and packages listed.
 Few MS rely their calculations on national EE plans, partly not consistent with ESD
requirements
 Two MS will overachieve the target (UK, IRE, LIT, DEN, CYP)
Early Action/Early Savings/Additionality
 Most of MS do not clearly distinguish between EA, ES and additional measures
 In Austria and Germany, early action will to a large extend contribute to ESD-compliance
(43 and 45%), Lithuania: 17%
 In many MS, additional measures will be implemented to achieve the required target
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Summary
Policy Packages:
 In most of the MS, thinking in „policy packages“ is basis of domestic policy
(„small“ and „large“ packages)
 Some countries count the implementation of related EU-directives to domestiv measures
 Agricultural sector underrepresented
Financing
 Only a few countries address the issue of financing EE-measures (e.g. DEN; HUN; GER,
UK)
Public Sector, Energy Supplier, Energy Services
 In most of MS, public sector has been assigned an important role in implementing eepolicies
 Also in most of MS, energy suppliers are or will be involved in the process of
implementation of ee policies
 Energy services are predominantly neglected
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Summary
Ex ante estimates
 Only half of MS conducted ex ante estimates, related to potentials
 Urgend need for ISI-potential study
Monitoring and evaluation
 Only AUT, BUL, CZ, GER, FIN, ITA, LAT, UK provide information on evaluation methods
(mostly bottom up)
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Policy Conclusions
 From diversity to harmonisation

harmonisation of NEEAPs (template)

harmonisation of evaluation methods (EMEEES)
 From plan to implementation

urge MS with pending or drafted plans to submit

urge MS to implement/monitor and improve EEI measures listed
in the NEEAPs

clear distinction between/definition of early action, early
savings, additional savings/measures
 From energy savings to GHG-emissions reductions

explicit documentation of GHG-effects (although not required)
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Thank you for your attention!
Daniel Becker
Ecofys Germany GmbH
++49 30 2977357920
[email protected]
Dr. Ralf Schüle
Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
++49/(0)202/2492-110
[email protected]