Transcript Solshow

Space Weather: Science, Effects, Forecasts and
Services.
* What is Space Weather?
- Solar drivers
* What are the effects?
- Technological systems
- Human health
* How to forecast it?
- Observations
- AI methods
* Services
- International Programs
- Vendors
* Today’s Space Weather
Henrik Lundstedt
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Lund
What is Space Weather?
Space weather refers to conditions in space, that can
influence technological systems, and can endanger
human life or health.
In Lund we focuse on conditions driven by the Sun.
So let’s start with the Sun
The Sun
Diameter:
1 390 000 km
(109 times Earth)
Mass:
1.99x1030 kg
(330 000 times Earth)
Density:
Core 151x103 kg/m-3
Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3
The Sun consists of:
H (about 90%)
Helium (about. 10%)
C,N,O (about 0.1%)
Temperature:
Core 15 milj
Photosphere 5800 K
Chromosphere 4300-104 K
Corona 1-30 milj K
4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)
Solar waves tell us about the Sun’s interior
and show us the solar magnetic activity dynam
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The solar magnetic field emerges thru the
surface, and produces sunspots
and regions of complex magnetic.
The Energy in the Twisted Magnetic Field can be
Released and Enormous Explosions occur
-Solar Flares
An X20 X-ray solar flare
(EIT/SOHO) April2, 2001
Coronal Mass Ejections as Seen by SOHO
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Halo CME of July 14, 2000
CMEs are the ways the Sun gets rid of its magnetic field globally in huge loops.
Largest Mass Ejected: 5 - 50 billion tons
Frequency of Occurrence: 3.5/day events (solar activity max), 0.2 events/day
(min)
Speed: 200-2000 km/s
Detecting CMEs in Radio
Wavelengths
Long-Term Solar Cycle Activity
as described by the Sunspot Number
Low Solar Activity - Cold Climate
High Solar Activity -Warm Climate?
Solar activity during 5000 years from C14
measurements in old trees.
Cold climate inEngland and
Holland during Little Ice Age.
Warm climate during
Middle Ages.
A Possible Explanation of the Solar
Activity and Climate Relation
Many sunspots high solar activity
Cosmic ray flux
decreases
Less clouds are formed
Higher temperature warmer climate
The solar magnetic flux has
increased with 131%
since 1901.
Solar Evolution
and Climate
Global warming, Little Ice Age
or Full Ice Age?
The Sun’s coronal magnetic field has increased with 131% since 1901.
The Sun’s brightness increases (fusion)
with 1% per 150 million years (2 degrees).
The coupling between the large-scale
magnetic field (11year cycle) and small smallscale might explain the Maunder minimum.
Besides climate changes, the Sun is also
causing aurora
In Stockholm July 15-16, 2000
In Italy April 6-7 and July 15-16, 200
Space Weather Effects on Technological System
Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event
The proton event caused
problems for ACE,
SOHO, Ørsted,
Japanese X-ray satellite,
star trackers on board
commercial satellites.
Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,
24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30
UT). Third largest!
Largest 43 000 pfu, (March
24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu
(October 20, 1989).
Radiation risks and aviation
The radiation exposure is
doubled every 2.2 km.
Solar flares can increase the
radiation by 20-30 times.
Pilots get cancer more often
than average.
The intensive solarflare of
April 2, 2001, which caused
major communication problems
also made Continental
Airlines to change
their route between
Hong Kong and New York.
One out of 300 passengers on a
high latitude flight develops
cancer after an intense proton
event.
New EU law:
Pregnant (aircrew) should
not be exposed to more
than 1 (1-6) millisievert/year
We in Lund collaborate
with SSI and KI to develop
forecasts of radiation doses.
Power Systems are effected at times
of geomagnetic storms
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This severe electrojet caused the
failure of Quebec’s power system
March 13-14, 1989.
A damaged transformer
(e.g. July 15-16, 2001).
One of the generators of OKG’s
(Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was
heated due to the
geomagnetically induced
current in March 13-14 1989.
How to forecast the Space Weather and Effects?
We need real-time data
Warnings
Forecasts
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Solar observations with
SOHO give warnings 1-3
Days ahead.
A replacement of SOHO
after 2003 is needed.
A solar radar could play an
important role.
Solar wind observations with
ACE give accurate forecasts
1-3 hours ahead.
We need international coorporation and programs
National Space Weather Program started in USA 1995
and in 2000 ”Living with a Star”.
ESA initiated ”ESA Space Weather Program” 1997
1999. We in Lund are a member of the consortium
led byAlcatel Space Industry.
International LWS
RWCs of ISES
We need nonlinear fast forecast methods
Supervised neural network
Recurrent neural network
Unsupervised neural network
Workshops in Lund
AI Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics
(1993, 1997)
Next workshop - An Extended ”Nordic GIC Meeting” 2001 October?
Updated in real-time and written in Java
Sun Stoplight Applet
Earth Stoplight Applet
Space Weather Vendors
Exist already in e.g. USA and Sweden
Today’s Space
Weather
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