Transcript WORLD WEALTH REPORT 2005 - Il Sole 24 Ore: notizie di

World Wealth Report
2007
2007 World Wealth Report
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Massimo Fortuzzi
Chief Operating Officer
Merrill Lynch Global Private Client – Italia
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Market Sizing and Growth
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Key Findings – Market Sizing and Growth 2006
• In 2006, 9.5 million people globally held more than US$1million in financial assets
– an increase of 8.3% over the 2005 HNWI population
• HNWI wealth gained 11.4% over 2005 to total US$37.2 trillion
• The total population of Ultra-HNWIs, people with more than US$30million in
Financial assets, now stands at 94,970 an 11.3% increase over 2005
• In 2006 GDP Growth and Market Capitalization worked in concert to fuel wealth
creation
• Emerging markets registered strong advances - Singapore, India, Indonesia and
Russia witnessed the highest growth in HNWI populations
• HNWI financial wealth is expected to reach US$51.6 trillion by 2011, growing at an
annual rate of 6.8%
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
The Global HNWI Population Grew 8.3% in 2006 to 9.5M, Up
from 6.5% Growth in 2005
HNWI Financial Population by Region (Millions), 2004-2006
8.2
Million (1)
8.8
Million (2)
10
8
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.3
9.5
Million
0.1
0.3
0.4
2.6
2.4
Number of
HNWIs
Worldwide
(in Millions)
2.2
Annual Growth
2005-2006
8.3%
% Change Total
HNWI Population
2005 - 2006
Africa
12.5%
Middle East
11.9%
Latin America
10.2%
Asia-Pacific
8.6%
Europe
6.4%
North America
9.2%
6
4
2.6
2.8
2.9
2
2.7
2.9
3.2
2004
2005
2006
0
Note:
(1) In 2004, number of Asia HNWIs (and thus Global HNWIs) was restated as a result of updated data made available. (2) Bahrain and Qatar added to model for years 2005 onward. As a
result, number of HNWIs in 2005 is 8.8M instead of 8.7M as stated in WWR 2006.
Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
HNWI Wealth Grew by 11.4% in 2006, up from 8.5%
in 2005, to Total $37.2 Trillion
HNWI Financial Wealth by Region (Trillions), 2004-2006
30.7
Trillion (1)
33.4
Trillion (2)
37.2
Trillion
40
Annual Growth
2005-2006
11.4%
0.9
0.8
30
HNWI
Financial
Wealth
($USD
Trillions)
0.7
1.0
3.7
1.3
1.4
5.1
4.2
8.4
7.6
7.1
% Change Total
HNWI Wealth
2005 – 2006
Africa
14.0%
Middle East
11.7%
Latin America
23.2%
Asia-Pacific
10.5%
Europe
7.8%
North America
10.3%
20
8.9
9.4
10.1
10
9.3
10.2
11.3
2004
2005
2006
0
*note: (1) In 2004, HNWI wealth figures were restated as a result of updated data becoming available; (2) Bahrain and Qatar added to model for years 2005 onward
Note:
All chart numbers are rounded
Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Wealth Continued to Grow Increasingly Concentrated with
The Richest 1% of HNWIs Controlling Over 35% of Total
HNWI Wealth
Global Number of Individuals per Wealth Band (k), 2006, and Growth (%), 2005-2006
UHNWIs accounted for 1% of
total HNWI population and held
35% of HNWI wealth ($13.07 T)
in 2006
Ultra High Net Worth
“Mid-Tier
Millionaire”
+ $30 m
$5 - $30 m
$1 m – $5 m
Number of
Individuals – 2006
2005-2006
Growth (1)
95 k (1.0%)
11.3%
35.1%
’05-’06
85.4 k (1.0%)
10.2%
33.6%
’04-’05
881.7 k (9.3%)
9.4%
22.7%
’05-’06
803.6 k (9.2%)
8.4%
23.0%
’04-’05
8515.9 k (89.7%)
8.2%
42.2%
’05-’06
7853.5 k (89.8%)
6.2%
43.4%
’04-’05
% Total
Wealth
Source: Capgemini Lorenz Curve Model; Capgemini World Wealth Report 2007
Note: (1) Figures from Bahrain and Qatar are not included in growth calculation as both countries were added in WWR 2007 and reflected in 2006 HNWI population and wealth figures only – effect
on growth at global level is insignificant ; numbers do not add up to 100% due to rounding
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
The Global Economy Grew at 5.4% in 2006, Led by
Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific
Real GDP Growth Rates, 2005-2006
12
2005
10.1
2006
10
10,5
8,5
8,8
8
%
6
6,4 6,6
5
5,5
5,4
4,5 4,3
4
3,2 3,3
3,5
2,9 2,7
2,3
2
2,9
2,7
2,0
1,9
0,9
1,9
1,7
1,2
2,3
2,2
0,1
0
World
World
US
Canada Germany
North
America
UK
France
Western Europe
Italy
Russia
Poland
Hungary
Eastern Europe
Japan
China
Asia Pacific
India
Brazil
Latin
America
Strong labor markets and rising real wages in Western Europe helped
support private consumption and real GDP growth.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit Forecasts, 2006-2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Similar to GDP, Most Worldwide Market Capitalizations
Experienced Accelerated Growth In 2006
Market Capitalization Growth Rates for Major
Stock Exchanges by Region*, 2001-2006
50
47.4
39.4
40
32.5
31.2
27.2
30
23.7
19.8
16.3 15.1
20
11.8
16.4
• European markets performed well
compared with prior years
0
-20
–In 2006, market capitalization remained
a strong driver of HNWI wealth growth
6.98.5
% 10
%
-10
• Market capitalization growth rates
have risen significantly following
their stabilization in 2005
-9.7
-17.4
-18.7-19.3 -19.7
-30
2001
Americas
2002
2003
2004
Europe
2005
2006
Asia-Pacific
Source: “Focus”, World Federation of Exchanges, Jan 2007;
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Emerging Economies Drove Growth and North America
Remained Strong While Europe Picked Up Pace
Region
HNWI Population Growth
Why?
• Robust GDP growth – (US 3.3%, Canada 2.7%)
North
America
• Increase in savings rate as percentage of GDP in the US
9.2%
• Solid gains in stock indices in US – (Dow Jones 16.3%, S&P 13.6%)
• GDP growth strong across all of EU-27 - 2.7% in 2006 up from 1.8% in
2005
Europe
6.4%
• Solid stock market returns in Germany, France
• High stock market returns in economies such as Poland and Czech
Republic
• Continued high savings rates – China 50.1%, South Korea 38.4%
• High, sustained, GDP growth - China 10.5%, India 8.8%
AsiaPacific
Latin
America
Middle
East/Africa
8.6%
• Robust stock market performance in China and Indonesia
• Strong increase in market capitalization in pockets – China 220.6%,
Philippines 57.5%
• Strong GDP growth – 10.4% in Venezuela, 8.2% in Argentina
10.2%
ME
11.9%
Africa
12.5%
• Continued strong market capitalization growth – Mexican Exchange –
45.7%, Sao Paulo SE – 49.6% aided by rising commodity prices
• High GDP growth in the Middle East
• Historically high oil prices helped buoy real GDP growth in GCC
nations
• African commodity exporting nations benefited from rising worldwide
commodity and energy prices
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Looking Ahead, HNWI Wealth Is Projected to Total
US$51.6 Trillion By 2011, Growing at a Rate of 6.8%
HNWI Financial Wealth Forecast by Region, 2004-2011E
(US$ Trillions)
US$51.6 T
1.2
2.2
US$37.2 T
7.2
US$33.4 T
US$30.7 T
0.7
1.0
3.7
7.1
8.9
0.8
1.3
4.2
0.9
1.4
5.1
9.4
At 6.8%
Global
Growth
12.5
10.1
15.8
9.3
10.2
11.3
2004
2005
2006
Global
6.8%
Africa
6.1%
Middle East
9.5%
Latin America
7.2%
Asia-Pacific
8.5%
Europe
4.3%
North America
7.0%
12.7
8.4
7.6
Annual Growth Rate,
2006-2011E
2011E
Note:
All chart numbers are rounded.
Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Asset Allocation
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Key Findings – HNWI Asset Allocation
• HNWI allocations in 2006 varied from 2005:
–
Allocations to real estate increased while allocations to alternative
investments dipped
• Globally, high returns in commercial real estate and REITs drove
increased allocations to real estate:
–
In 2006, real estate investments became more liquid and more
transparent driven by the increase, globally, in legislation which allows
for REIT-type investment structures
• Certain alternative investments which capitalize on market volatility
did not fare well during 2006, a year of relatively low volatility
• HNWIs globally continued to diversify their holdings as they pulled
funds away from North America and Asia-Pacific to Europe
Source:Capgemini Analysis.
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
In 2006, HNWIs Allocations to Real Estate
Increased As Alternative Investments Dipped
Breakdown of Financial Assets of HNWIs, 2004 to 2008F (%)
100%
100%
19%
20%
16%
16%
13%
13%
100%
100%
10%
13%
24%
20%
14%
13%
Alternative Investments*
Real Estate**
Cash/ Deposits
Fixed income
23%
24%
21%
21%
28%
30%
31%
31%
2004
2005
2006
2008F
Equities
* Includes: Structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currency, commodities, private equity/venture capital
** Includes: Commercial Real Estate, REITs, and Other Investment Properties
Source: Capgemini/Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor Surveys, March 2006, March 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Asia-Pacific and Latin America Lead the Real Estate Trend
with Allocations of 29% and 25% Respectively
Breakdown of Financial Assets of HNWIs by Region, 2006 (%)
100%
100%
100%
10%
12%
13%
100%
100%
5%
100%
8%
15%
20%
24%
24%
29%
24%
9%
14%
14%
12%
25%
25%
Alternative Investments*
9%
24%
Real Estate**
Cash/ Deposits
21%
20%
Fixed income
21%
29%
Equities
15%
41%
31%
30%
30%
22%
Global
Europe
Middle East
North America Latin America
24%
Asia
* Includes: Structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currency, commodities, private equity/venture capital
** Includes: Commercial Real Estate, REITs, and Other Investment Properties
Source: Capgemini/Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor Surveys, March 2006, March 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
From 2005 to 2006, HNWIs Increased their Investments
to Europe
Geographic Breakdown of HNWI Investment,
2005 to 2008F (%)
100%
100%
2%
4%
100%
2%
7%
2%
7%
3%
7%
23%
21%
22%
Africa
22%
25%
Middle East
26%
Latin America
Asia - Pacific
Europe
North America
44%
43%
40%
2005
2006
2008F
*:
weighted based on the net financial wealth of that region and aggregated to create a weighted global allocation
*:
In 2005 investments to Africa were less than 0.4%
Source: Capgemini/Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor Surveys, April 2006, March 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Mauro Masciarelli
Vice President Financial Services
Responsabile Wealth Management
Capgemini - Italia
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Spotlight
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Spotlight Key Findings:
Dynamic, Client-Needs Based Service Models are Emerging
• Leading firms take a new approach to client service
– Needs-Based approaches provide the most appropriate products and services and
unlock potential value for clients
• Wealth management firms have adopted a needs-based approach to
client segmentation
– Several factors beyond client assets under management affect the optimal product and service
bundling needed for any single client
•Sources of wealth
•Globalization of spending approaches
•Life events
•Demographics
•Investment goals
•Financial behavior and involvement
• Advisor practice models and servicing approaches can be customized
based upon client and firm needs
– Optimizes the life time value of advisor/client relationships
• Leading firms provide wealth management advisors with more
advanced tools
– A sophisticated technology platform supports delivery to ensure long-term relationships with
HNW clients
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
We Recommend Four Critical Success Factors for
a Needs-Based and Dynamic Service Model
Wealth management firms need to reconfigure the process for understanding their
clients, and provide the right service model.
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
A Needs-Based Approach Requires a Continuous
Reevaluation of Client Needs
Traditional Approach
Needs-Based Approach
• Clients segmented by:
• Assets under management
• Risk Profile
• Other demographic characteristics
• Client needs are not proactively reviewed prior to
firm strategy determination
• Clients segmented by criteria beyond AUM and
demographics:
• Current and future investment objectives
• Behavioral characteristics
• Aspirational models
• External interests
• Preferred communication style/desired level of
interaction
• Client needs determined based on product, service,
and investment criteria
• Needs drive firm strategy and service offering
• Strategy and product offers determined prior to
analysis of client needs
• Marketing primarily based on AUM and risk profile
• Clients offered products based on wealth band
• Firm looks at book of business, and existing and
target clients to assess its own core competencies
and offerings
• Clients offered products on a needs-based
approach. Expected client life-time value drives level
of service

Clients placed into practice model based on AUM
 Service approach driven by practice model
• Practice model and service approach tailored to
client needs
• Multiple delivery channels and practice models used
as necessary

• Ongoing reviews to uncover opportunities for
products, services, and investments based on
behavioral dynamics, valuation analytics, and other
criteria
Client Needs
Determination and
Segmentation
Product & Service
Alignment
Practice Model &
Service Approach
Determination
Service Review
Once clients are assigned to a model, service
approach is static unless significant changes in
AUM occur
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
A Technology Framework for Information Gathering
Is Critical to Anticipating Client Needs
• Service-oriented architectures support improved business agility
• Detailed and dynamic client information is key to anticipating client needs
• Business rules need to be adjusted to move from static to dynamic service models
• Business intelligence dashboards allow firms to continuously monitor client
satisfaction and retention
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Industry Leaders Have Already Started Developing
Needs-Based Service Models
•Creation of Non Resident Indian Wealth Management Teams
•Support of Sharia Investing in the Middle East
•Globalization of European Wealth Management Practices
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
2007 World Wealth Report
Economic Review – Italy
Merrill Lynch & Capgemini
March 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
ISTANTANEE NAZIONALI – ITALIA
Italia – Analisi economica 2006
Numero degli HNWI in Italia (migliaia),
2005-2006
Crescita (05-06)
3,8%
250
198,3
Drivers
• Crescita del PIL reale del 1.7 nel 2006 (aggiornato a maggio ad 1,9% fonte: Relazione Annuale Banca d’Italia), partendo da una crescita dello
0,1% nel 2005
• Guidata dalla crescita nel consumo privato
• Inflazione bassa, che riflette l’alleggerimento dei prezzi del petrolio
205,8
200
150
Ostacoli
N. di
100
HNWI
(000)
50
0
2005
2006
 Il deficit del bilancio è aumentato al 4,4% (Fonte Eurostat) del PIL nel
2006:
 Esso dovrebbe abbassarsi al 2,1% (fonte: Commissione UE) nel 2007 e
al 2,2% (fonte: Commissione UE) nel 2008
 Deficit del bilancio/previsione Commissione UE sul PIL: inferiore al 3%
nel 2007
 Il deficit delle partite correnti è aumentato al 1,8% del PIL
 Le finanze pubbliche sono in miglioramento
 La crescita economica rimane indietro rispetto alla media dell’area
dell’euro, ma è previsto un miglioramento
Fonte: Analisi della curva di Lorenz da parte di Capgemini, dati di base da fonti molteplici, compreso MSCI; Analisi Capgemini, 2006; Eurostat; Previsioni della Commissione Europea (Reuters, il 7
Maggio 2007), Relazione della Banca d’Italia del 31 maggio 2007.
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
ISTANTANEE NAZIONALI – ITALIA
Italia – Analisi economica 2006
Drivers chiave della ricchezza e della crescita degli HNWI
Driver
Eventi 2006
Impatto sul
Modello
Drivers 2006
Previsione 2007
 Si prevede che il PIL sarà confermato al 1,7% nel 2006 (aggiornato a maggio ad 1,9% - fonte:
Relazione Annuale Banca d’Italia), al 1,9% nel 2007 (fonte:Commissione UE), prima di ridursi ad
un valore previsto del 1,7% (fonte:Commissione UE) nel 2008:
 crescita del PIL
reale del 1,7%
Crescita del PIL
e risparmio

La crescita per quadrimestre è rallentata allo 0,3% nel terzo quadrimestre, se
confrontata con lo 0,8% nel primo e lo 0,5% nel secondo

Il consumo privato è aumentato del 2% nel 2006, dopo periodi di stagnazione per
buona parte del 2004 e del 2005
 Incremento dallo
0,1% del PIL
reale nel 2005
 Si stima che il rapporto debito/PIL subirà un aumento al 107,1% nel 2006 e scenderà a
106,9% nel 2007 (fonte IMF)
 Risparmi al 20,7%
del PIL
 Si stima che il deficit delle partite correnti subirà un aumento del PIL fino al 1,8% nel 2006 da
1,6% nel 2005, situazione che riflette i prezzi del petrolio più elevati e le aumentate importazioni
 Il risparmio aumenterà nel 2007 poichè le spese ricorrenti si ridurranno dello 0,7% del PIL sia nel
2007 sia nel 2008: la previsione dell’Italia è favorevole poichè il bilancio italiano del 2007 implica
aumenti delle entrate e tagli alla spesa (fonte IMF).
Capitalizzazione di
mercato
 Il numero ed il valore delle IPO (Offerta Pubblica di Vendita) nel 2006 è stato il più alto dal 2000
 +28,6% nel 2006
 La crescita MIB è stata del 19%, e ha raggiunto un massimo di 30,949 il 18 Dicembre
 +1,1% nel 2005
 La Borsa Italiana ha raggiunto e superato i massimi registrati nel Gennaio del 2001
 +42,9% nel 2004
 Nonostante una crescita più forte e correzioni sostanziali al bilancio all’inizio del 2006, il deficit del PIL è cresciuto dal 4,1%
(fonte: Conti Econ. Naz. ISTAT 2006) nel 2005 fino a quasi 4,4% (fonte ISTAT) nel 2006; ciò è dovuto in parte a:

Politica Fiscale
L’ordinanza della Corte Europea di Giustizia richiede al governo di ripagare circa €16 mld di trattenute di
imposta sul valore aggiunto (IVA) sulle auto aziendali
 Il bilancio 2007 presentato al parlamento si è focalizzato sull’aumento delle entrate piuttosto che sui tagli alla spesa per
ridurre il deficit del bilancio
 Il deficit è orientato verso il ribasso, ma il PIL si aggirerà attorno al 2,3% (fonte ISTAT)
 La spesa pubblica è aumentata del 2,3% (fonte IMF), ma il bilancio 2007 comprende diverse iniziative di contenimento della
spesa.
Fonte:
Relazioni nazionali EIU, 2006-2007; Analisi Capgemini, 2007; World Federation of Exchanges 2005; ISTAT, Conti economici nazionali, 03/01/06, “Documento di Programmazione Economica-Finanziaria”, Governo
Italiano, 2006-2009; Commissione Europea ; Relazione IMF 2007 sull’Italia, Relazione della Banca d’Italia del 31 maggio 2007.
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
ISTANTANEE NAZIONALI – ITALIA
Italia – Analisi economica 2006
Drivers chiave della ricchezza e della crescita degli HNWI
Driver
Impatto
sul
Modello
Drivers 2006
Previsione
2007
 La Banca Centrale Europea (BCE) ha aumentato il suo principale tasso di riferimento di 1,25 punti percentuali
negli ultimi 12 mesi per portare il tasso al 3,25% in Ottobre 2006, sono attesi ulteriori rialzi:
Politica
Monetaria

In Dicembre la BCE ha alzato il suo tasso chiave di rifinanziamento al 3,5%

È possibile almeno un ulteriore tasso di aumento prima che il ciclo di inasprimento monetario
termini

La forza del tasso di cambio dell’euro dovrebbe evitare il bisogno di ulteriori rialzi nel 2007/08
 Si prevede che l’inflazione si riduca leggermente da un valore stimato del 2,1% nel 2006 ad un valore appena
inferiore al 2% nel 2007 e 2008
 Il bilancio 2007 si propone di lanciare la crescita economica e ridurre il deficit del bilancio
 Le riforme attuate dal 1997 per liberalizzare i contratti di impiego hanno ridotto la disoccupazione, ma il mercato
del lavoro italiano rimane uno dei più rigidi nella UE
 Una recente riforma sulle imposte del reddito personale si propone di circoscrivere la spaccatura tra i ricchi e i
poveri aumentando le imposte sui redditi più elevati e riducendole su quelli più bassi
 Sia Standard & Poor’s che Fitch Ratings hanno ridotto il rating del debito pubblico italiano di un punto dopo
l’annuncio del bilancio:
Altri Fattori
Fonte:

Entrambi hanno rilevato l’inadeguatezza a ridurre il deficit e i timori che le imposte ostacoleranno
la crescita economica (agenzia di Rating Moody’s Italia, aggiornato al 7 maggio 2007: conferma
Aa2, previsione stabile).
Relazioni nazionali EIU, 2006-2007; Analisi Capgemini, 2007
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation
Questions & Answers
World Wealth Report 2007, June 27th Media Presentation