Transcript National Climate Assessment

An Overview of The National
Climate Assessment
CLIVAR
Washington, DC
January 9, 2012
Katharine Jacobs
Office of Science and Technology Policy
http://assessment.globalchange.gov
Global Change Research Act (1990), Section 106
…not less frequently than every 4 years, the
Council… shall prepare… an assessment which–
• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings
of the Program and discusses the scientific
uncertainties associated with such findings;
• analyzes the effects of global change on the
natural environment, agriculture, energy
production and use, land and water resources,
transportation, human health and welfare,
human social systems, and biological diversity;
and
• analyzes current trends in global change, both
human- induced and natural, and projects major
trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.
2
What is New About the
2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sustainable process with multiple products over time
New topics, cross-sectoral studies
Consistent national matrix of indicators
Central coordination, multiple partners, distributed process
Regional and sectoral networks building assessment
capacity
Recognizes international context
Engagement and communications focus
Web-based data and tools for decision support
Process workshops to establish methodologies
3
Outline for 2013 Report
• The scientific basis for climate
change
• Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts
• Regions and biogeographical
cross-cuts
• Decision support, mitigation
and adaptation
• Agenda for climate change
science
• The NCA long-term process
4
Sectors
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Water resources
Energy supply and use
Transportation
Agriculture
Forestry
Ecosystems and biodiversity
Human health
5
Sectoral Cross-Cuts
• Water, energy, and land use
• Urban/infrastructure/
vulnerability
• Impacts of climate change on
tribal, indigenous, and native
lands and resources
• Land use and land cover change
• Rural communities and
development
• Impacts on biogeochemical cycles
6
Regions
Northeast
Southeast and Caribbean
Midwest
Great Plains
Northwest
Southwest
Alaska and Arctic
Hawaii and Pacific Islands
+ Guam, Northern Mariana
Islands, American Samoa and
other minor outlying islands
+ Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
7
Biogeographical Cross-Cuts
• Oceans and marine resources
• Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, e.g.,
– SF Bay Delta
– Chesapeake Bay
– Gulf Coast
• Watersheds, e.g.,
–
–
–
–
Great Lakes
Colorado River
Columbia River
Mississippi River
8
Assessment Structure
CENRS/OSTP
National Climate
Assessment
Development and
Advisory Committee
(NCADAC)
US Global Change Research
Program (Federal)
• USGCRP Principals
• Interagency National Climate
Assessment (INCA) Task Force
Network of Partners and
Stakeholders
• Regional Networks
• Professional Societies
• Assessment Staff
a.k.a. Federal Advisory
Committee
• Technical Support and
Coordination units (e.g. NCDC)
NCADAC Working Groups
• Citizen Groups
• Regions (SW, NE, etc.)
• NGOs
• Sectors (water, energy, etc.)
• Data Management
• Science
• Scenarios
• Indicators
• Etc.
9
National Climate Assessment
Development and Advisory Committee
• 60 member federal
advisory committee,
including 44 non-federal
members and 16 federal
ex-officio representatives
– Chair: Jerry Melillo, Marine
Biological Laboratory
– Vice Chairs: T.C.
Richmond, GordonDerr,
LLP and Gary Yohe,
Wesleyan University
– 13 member Executive
Secretariat
• Wide variety of expertise
and perspectives
• Providing advice on both
the 2013 Report AND on
the ongoing process
• Responsible for authoring
the Assessment report(s)
to the USGCRP that will
be the basis of the report
to the President and
Congress
10
NCADAC Working Groups
1. Scenarios and Regional Summaries
2. Request for Information
3. Peer Review, Information Standards, and
Access
4. Engagement, Communication, and
Evaluation
5. Regional Coordination
6. Sectoral Coordination
7. Science of Climate Change
8. Agenda for Climate Change Science
9. Adaptation and Mitigation
10. Indicators Development and Evaluation
11. International
12. Sustained Process
11
NCAnet: Partners in Assessment
• A network of organizations
that extend the NCA
process and products to a
broader audience through
their stakeholders and
members
• Building long-term capacity
to conduct and use
assessments
• Cultivating partnerships with
organizations that will
participate in the sustained
assessment process
12
Guidance to Teams
• Risk based framing
• Assessing and communicating confidence levels and
uncertainties
• Information quality and documentation: transparency and
“chain of custody” of information is critical
• Four scenarios provided:
–
–
–
–
Climate
Sea level change
Land use and land cover
Socioeconomic information
• Focus on community and capacity building
• Start with 2009 report, identify the new news
• Consider international context, adaptation and mitigation
options, research needs, next steps for the sustained
assessment, etc.
13
2013 Report Production Timeline
A
S
O
N
D
J
Oct 1,
2011
F
M
Mar 1,
2012
CLA
mtg.
(Jan.
2012)
Expressions of
Interest
A
M
J
J
May 1
2012
A
Aug 1
2012
S
O
N
Oct 1
2012
D
J
F
M
A
Jan 1 Feb Mar
2013 1 1
M
J
J
A
Jun1 Jul 1
S
O
N
D
Oct 1
2013
Deadline for new
information included in
draft report
(July 31, 2012)
Development
Of technical input
Author teams incorporate Technical Input
and other sources , draft chapters and
suggest downstream products and
processes to the NCADAC
CLAs and editors synthesize
chapters and NCADAC reviews
full document
Draft chapters due
(June 1, 2012)
Request to NRC and
USGCRP agencies to
hear preliminary
presentations of
potential key
conclusions to
identify potential
“show-stoppers”
(July, 2012)
NRC ,
Agency,
and
Public
review
Document
comments,
and review
editors to
judge
adequacy of
responses
(iterative
process)
NCADAC Meeting, November 16-17, 2011
Add
information
only in
response to
review
comments
(deadline:
April 30,
2013)
CLAs and
NCADAC
revise draft
2nd NRC
Review: Were
comments
adequately
addressed?
NCADAC to
consider
revisions
(from
agencies
and EOP)
and approve
report
Rough
layout
N
R
C
Agency
SIGN OFF
Executive Office
of the President
comments and
Web and
summary
layout and
printing
14
Outcomes of the NCA
• Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of
climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability
• Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from
multiple sources
• Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk,
vulnerability, and impacts
• A sustained process for informing an integrated research
program
• Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and
mitigation options
• Information that provides the foundation for a science-based
national discourse on climate change
15