Transcript Slide 1
Moving Past the “Wall” of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Exploring the limits of corn-based ethanol as a renewable fuel Martha Hay August 2011 The Energy Crisis • In 2003, 83% of energy came from fossil fuels ▫ Fossil fuels = nonrenewable limited supply • US makes up ~5% of global population, yet consumes 25% of oil • US imports ~60% of its oil • Developing countries growing worldwide energy consumption • Increasing competition = threat to US fuel supply Additional concerns • Environmental concerns ▫ Combustion byproducts: CO2 – greenhouse gas CO – pollutant NOx –pollutant • Drilling oil spills ▫ BP Gulf Coast ▫ Exxon Valdez Push towards alternative fuels • ~74% of petroleum went to transportation sector in 2009 • Alternative transportation fuel could significantly reduce fossil fuel consumption Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) • Promote development of alternative energy ▫ Tax incentives ▫ Mandates by volume (gallons) • Goal=36 billion gallons renewable fuel in 2022 • Blenders contribute Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) 4 Categories • Total renewable fuels • Advanced biofuels • Cellulosic and agricultural waste-based biofuel • Biomass-based diesel (BBD) http://www.greentechnolog.com/indust ry/renewal_fuels_inc/ http://thepurporters.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/a-view-of-the-future-irresponsiblepractices-are-washing-the-ground-from-beneath-our-feet/ 2022 Goal attainable? • 36 billion gallons renewable fuels • No more than 15 billion from corn-based ethanol • Biodiesel capped at 1 billion for 2012 ▫ 2022 goal not set • ≥ 16 billion from cellulosic • Cellulosic falls short ▫ Bumped down from 250 to 6.6 million gallons for 2011 Where will the rest of this renewable fuel come from? Corn-based ethanol • In 2010, ethanol production contributed $53.6 billion to the GDP • In 2010, ethanol production employed 70,000 Americans • In 2004, CO2 emissions reduced by > 7 million tons, equivalent to removing >1 million cars from the road for 1 year Ethanol Consumption • 14.31 billion gallons produced in 2010 • Cars approved for 10% ethanol (E10) in gasoline ▫ Exception Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) Can use up to 85% ethanol • 74% gasoline produced in the U.S. contains ethanol • Two types: ▫ Corn-based –contributes the majority ▫ Cellulosic – not economical to manufacture Ethanol is green • Environmental “savings” actually just a trade-off • Not cost-competitive even after 30 yrs of development &subsidies ▫ Ethanol not actually that young • Limited biomass • Farm equipment uses fossil fuels • Food versus Fuel 2009 national ethanol production used ~32% of U.S. corn crop • Corrosive infrastructure problems Pushing past the ethanol “wall” • Corn will be main contributor for RFS • Wall = when the U.S. fuel supply can’t absorb anymore ethanol ▫ Assuming the following don’t change drastically E10 limit # of FFVs Availability of E85 How to push past the “wall” • A) Increase the concentration of ethanol in gasoline for regular cars (E10 E15) • B) Increase number of FFVs on the road and availability of E85 at fueling stations Option A – Approve higher blends • EPA tried to pass an E15 waiver. • Opposition: ▫ Insufficient, incomplete DOE testing ▫ Several automobiles failed testing for emissions ▫ E10 already causing problems for non-road engines (chainsaws, lawnmowers, boats) ▫ Some states want E0 to be available Option B –more FFVs and E85 • There are only 8 million FFVs on the road, and approx. 1% of fueling stations offer E85. • EPA estimates that FFV owners only fill up with E85 about 5% of the time • Retailers have to pay for the modifications for E85 retail stations (expensive) Inevitable problems • Significant hurdles regardless ▫ Ethanol transported via rail (66%), trucks (29%), and barge (5%) Not compatible with petroleum pipelines New pipelines expensive ▫ Retail stations USTs, nozzles, and piping need to be upgraded Retailers would have to upgrade their systems on their own expensive When in doubt: throw more money at it! • Blender’s credit for following a federal mandate • Corn ethanol subsidies totaled $7.0 billion in 2006 • Subsidies unevenly distributed http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11513.pdf Recommendations • Cut subsidies for ethanol and oil industries • Should not approve E15 just to pass the “wall” need to complete sufficient testing • Provide financial assistance for retailers willing to provide E85 • Invest in drop-in fuels ▫ Technology development funding • E0 available for non-road engines • Regional fuels Potentially Useful Conversion Processes New Zealand Broaden the RFS • Add category for electric/hybrid cars • Two pools for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles ▫ Biodiesel capped at 1 billion gallons Best Practices • Reduce energy consumption ▫ Passivhaus – German building standard ▫ Increase gas prices (consider Europe) ▫ Promote electric and hybrid cars • Promote other renewable energy: solar, wind, nuclear can all contribute to electric • Education informed decision makers • International collaboration worth consideration Questions?