Transcript Technology Investment Planning (TIP)

Technology Investment Planning (TIP)
Benefit Cost Modelling for Smart Grid and Emerging Technology
DNV KEMA Inc.
7/7/2015
PROPRIETARY
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Proprietary
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throughout the electrical power industry
realise efficient, reliable and clean
energy for today and the future
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*Renewables Certification services are offered separate from remaining services to ensure impartiality
and to fulfil accreditation requirements of DIN EN ISO IEC 17065:2013
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An energy technology powerhouse
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No. 1
25
in high power and high
voltage testing
Leading certification
body with more than
25 standards and
guidelines published
Largest
3000
10
90
independent technical
advisor on renewable
energy
independent energy
experts
laboratories
incl. world’s largest
high power and high
voltage test lab
years experience,
including 30 years in
energy efficiency and
wind energy
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Technology Investment Planning (TIP)
 DNV GL has developed an approach that navigates the changing environments
impacting the electrical system and optimizes spend by applying proven, new and
emerging technologies to meet performance objectives.
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Changing Environments
 Regulatory
 Climate
 Technology
 Customer Needs
 Renewables
 Aging Assets
 Workforce
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Technologies
 Volt VAR optimization.
 Automation.
 Fault Location, Isolation and Restoration.
 Renewables.
 System Hardening and Resiliency.
 Energy Storage.
 Protection.
 Electric Vehicles.
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Performance
 Technical
– Reliability.
– Loss Reduction.
– Power Quality.
 Financial
– Revenue Generation.
– Capital Deferral.
– Return on Investment.
 Environmental
 Safety
 Customer Satisfaction
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Introduction
 Analytical approach to get the most out of technology investments.
 Benefits:
– Determine the best technologies, where they should be deployed, and to what
degree.
– Recognize the driving factors and changes that makes these the best solutions.
– Defendable plan of action (project benefits are based on detailed analytics).
Optimized Spend
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Model Overview
 TIP can be updated as the system changes or solution costs change.
 All input data, algorithms, and assumptions will be provided in a user
friendly benefit cost model.
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Data Flow
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Project Approach
 Data Collection– Coordinated effort to define technologies, feeder & system
characteristics, and financial assumptions.
 Algorithms Development – DNV GL has tools and previous project experience
relating feeder characteristics and solution benefits.
 TIP Model Customization - Define global and project specific
variables, incorporate algorithms.
 Optimal Plan – Recommended plans based on various levels of spend
and focus areas.
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Algorithms Development
 Algorithms relate detailed project drivers to program benefits.
 Illustrate the amount of equipment deployed and benefit / costs associated
with roll-out.
 This approach results in a robust benefits and costs assessment.
Detailed System Models and Benefits
Detailed Metrics on a Feeder Basis
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Optimal Plan
 Findings will illustrate optimal solutions under various conditions:
– Cash Flows.
– Diminishing returns.
– Detailed feeder results.
– Combined projects (projects will interact and provide synergy).
– Time varying factors (load growth, renewables, electric vehicles etc.).
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Features
 Provides a list of recommended feeders and technologies applied on a benefit cost
basis.
 Optimal spend curve shows the value for a given level of spend.
 Allows project solutions to be shown individually or combined.
 Uses utility data to provide a customized solution.
 Output is easy to understand and use in decision making.
 Assumptions can be changed to understand the sensitivity to the utility
environment.
 Provides detailed output that is available when needed but summarized if not.
 Provides a tried and tested approach. Successfully deployed with other utilities.
Filtering - Turn technology on
and off to see the interactions,
investigate solutions,
combined benefits and costs.
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Example
Find the top 3% of feeders in terms of benefit to cost for fault current indicators,
assuming they are distributed equally along the feeders.
Applied Filters
Tabular and Graphical Results
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Findings
 Each utilities' financial, operating and regulatory environment is unique; however,
there are several common themes.
 The following are high-level lessons learned from smart grid solutions benefit cost
modeling projects with utilities:
– A majority of the benefits are achieved by applying technology to a subset of the system
(i.e. the top 10% of feeders may account for 50% of the possible benefits, similar to the
80/20 rule).
– Dispersing project solutions is more effective than lumping them (e.g. it is better to place
fault current indicators on the top 10% lightly than the top 5% more densely).
– Combined solutions are more attractive (e.g. there are often synergies between solutions,
communications costs are shared between projects).
– Changes in company priorities and financial parameters have a big impact on results (e.g.
changes in future needs alters project outlook, it is important to look forward and
understand variability and trends).
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For more information, please contact our
experts.
Clay Tutaj, Senior Consultant
[email protected]
Tel: +1 919 256 0839 ext. 74118
Mob: +1 919 802 6909
www.dnvgl.com
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Larry Dickerman, VP Asset Management
[email protected]
Tel: +1 919 256 0839 ext. 74102
Mob: +1 919 931 9068