Transcript Pharma and Health Futures 2015

FUTURES STUDIES
Causal Layered Analysis
Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine
Coast University,
www.metafuture.org
Six Pillars of Foresight
• Mapping the future
• Anticipating the future
• Timing the future
• Deepening the future
• Creating alternatives
• Transforming the future
DEEPENING THE FUTURE
Causal layered analysis
The “Litany” official public description of issue
Problem
Causes
Social, Economic,
Cultural
Worldviews
Metaphors and Myths
Social Science Analysis: - Systemic Shortterm historical facts uncovered. Solution values
with structures
Discourse Analysis: Worldview solution often in
consciousness transformation
Myth/Metaphor Analysis:
Solution can rarely be rationally
designed
•
Litany:
- visible
- disconnected news events
•
Systemic:
- social, technological, economic, environmental
and political causes
•
Discourses:
- stakeholders
- ideologies
- worldviews
•
Myths-metaphors:
- stories
- legends
- myths of trauma and transcendence
Causal Layered Analysis
Newspaper headlines, superficial, common
public perceptions
STEEP analysis
Worldview
Cultural/social/religious perspective or
worldview
Myth
Emotional, images or deep meanings
Unconscious
Deep Meaning
Social causes
Public
Superficial
Litany
Causal Layered Analysis
Level
Issue / Problem
Solution
Who is
responsible to
fix it
Source
Litany
(Visible)
Problem seems too
difficult to solve
Short term
approaches
Governments / I
cant do anything
about it
Television/
Newspapers
Systemic
(Causes)
Problem because of
short term historical
factors or it is a
process or system
issue
Integrated
approaches –
systemic solutions
Partnerships
between sectors of
society –
Government plus
industries
Policy Journals,
editorials
Worldview
Constituted by frame
of analysis, deep
structures of belief &
assumption
Transform, rethink
self and others,
change paradigm
Writers,
philosophers, those
outside the
dominant language
Peripheral
journals,
Myth /
Metaphor
Constituted core
myths / stories
Alternative stories
Collective
unconscious often
guided by visions
Work of artists,
visionaries,
CLA
“real”
Litany
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
Social system
& structure
Worldview
Myth &
Metaphor
“imagined”
Short
term
TIME
Long
term
CLA - Stakeholders
Stakeholders
L
O
N
G
T
E
R
M
CLA - Ideologies
Ideologies
L
O
N
G
T
E
R
M
CLA - Worldviews
Worldviews
L
O
N
G
T
E
R
M
CLA - Epistemes
Conventional
Epistemes
L
O
N
G
T
E
R
M
METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE
CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX
Litany
Social causes
Worldview
Myth
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4