Transcript America and Our Armed Forces: Facing the Future

A US PERSPECTIVE
THE AMERICAN ARMED FORCES AND
NATIONAL SECURITY
Presentation to:
The Heritage Foundation
Colonel James McGinley and Honorable Maribeth
Walton McGinley Strategic Leadership Lecture
November 12, 2013
BARRY R. McCAFFREY
GENERAL, USA (RETIRED)
211 N. Union Street, Suite 100
Alexandria, VA 22314
[email protected]
703-519-1250
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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BIOGRAPHY OF GENERAL
BARRY R. MCCAFFREY, USA (RET.)
Barry McCaffrey served in the United States Army for 32 years and retired as a four-star General.
At retirement, he was the most highly decorated serving General, having been awarded three Purple Heart medals
(wounded in combat three times), two Distinguished Service Crosses (the nation’s second highest award for valor)
and two Silver Stars for valor.
For five years after leaving the military, General McCaffrey served as the Director of the White House Office of
National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP). Upon leaving government service, he served as the Bradley Distinguished
Professor of International Security Studies from 2001-2005; and an Adjunct Professor of International Security
Studies from 2006-2010 at the United States Military Academy at West Point, NY. He served as an Associate Professor
in the Department of Social Sciences from 1973-1976 teaching American Government and Comparative Politics.
General McCaffrey is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Inter-American Dialogue. He
serves on the Board of Directors of the National Association of Drug Court Professionals and the Atlantic Council of
the United States. He has served on the Board of Directors of several corporations in the engineering design,
technology, and services sectors. He also serves on the Board of Directors of CRC Health Group – the nation’s largest
behavioral health care company. He has recently joined the Board of Directors of Prospira PainCare, Inc. He is also
proud to serve on South Carolina’s SCRA Board of Advisors.
General McCaffrey attended Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass.; and graduated from West Point with a Bachelor
of Science degree. He earned a master's degree in American Government from American University and attended the
Harvard University National Security Program as well as the Business School Executive Education Program.
In 2007 he was inducted into the US Army Ranger Hall of Fame at the US Army Infantry Center, Ft. Benning,
GA. In May 2010, he was honored as a Distinguished Graduate by the West Point Association of Graduates at the
United States Military Academy.
General McCaffrey is married to Jill Ann McCaffrey. They have three married adult children and six
grandchildren. Their son, Colonel Sean McCaffrey, just retired from the Armed Forces after his third combat tour.
Currently, General McCaffrey is President of his own consulting firm based in Alexandria, Virginia
www.mccaffreyassociates.com. He also serves as a national security and terrorism analyst for NBC News.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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THE SEVEN PRINCIPLE
GLOBAL SECURITY CHALLENGES
• The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.
• Regional war among nation states. (4 state sponsors of terrorism:
Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria).
• Civil war and failed states. (58,045 total US killed and wounded in
Iraq and Afghanistan).
• International terrorism. (51 Foreign Terrorist Organizations).
• The global recession and poverty.
• International crime and drug cartels.
• Humanitarian crisis/refugees.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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MAJOR CUTS TO US DEFENSE BUDGET:
THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
•
FY 2013 Base Budget provides $525.4 billion, a reduction of $5.2 billion from the FY
2012 enacted level ($530.6 billion.
•
The incremental costs of Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO), including ongoing
efforts in Afghanistan and support for the Office of Security Cooperation in Iraq, are
funded separately in the FY 2013 budget request at $88.5 billion, a decrease of $26.6
billion from the FY 2012 enacted level.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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GLOBAL US MILITARY STRENGTH
(2.3 Million Military Personnel)
AIR POWER
TOTAL
Total Combat Ships 290
Air Force Aircraft
5,484
Aircraft Carriers
10
Army Aircraft
5,050
Frigates
24
Navy Aircraft
2,710
Destroyers
61
Marine Aircraft
1,160
Submarines
71
231
Coastal Craft
12
Coast Guard
Aircraft
Air Force ICBMs
450
GROUND COMBAT
SYSTEMS
TOTAL
SEA POWER
Tanks
8,325
Armored Fighting
Vehicles
18,539
TOTAL
Self-Propelled Guns 1,934
Towed Artillery
Pieces
1,791
Rocket Projectors
(MLRS)
1,330
Portable Mortar
Systems
7,500
Mine Warfare
14
Air Force
Satellites
63
Portable AT
Weapons
28,000
Amphibious
Assault
28
4,040
Logistical Vehicles
106,407
Total Bombers,
Fighters, Attack
(all branches)
UAV’s
882
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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CURRENT WORLD NUCLEAR STOCKPILES
10
10
8.5
Thousands
8
6
4
2
0.3
0.24
France
China
0.225
0
Russia
United
States
0.1
United Pakistan
Kingdom
0.09
0.08
0.01
India
Israel
North
Korea
**Source: The Washington Post – April 19, 2012
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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COMPARATIVE GDP DATA
2012 GDP
Per Capita
US
China
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Brazil
UK
France
Italy
US
Germany
UK
France
Japan
Italy
Russia
Brazil
China
India
1
Trillions
20
1
Thousands
50
**All data retrieved from the CIA World Fact Book - 2013
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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US ENERGY PRODUCTION
AND DEMAND
• US crude oil production last year grew by more than one million barrels a day. The
largest increase in the world. The largest increase in US history.
• International Energy Agency predicting North American oil production to dominate world-wide supply
growth over the next five years – due to “hydraulic fracking" and “shale oil recovery” technologies
that can access formerly inaccessible reserves. The U.S. could become the world's biggest oil
producer by 2020, overtaking OPEC giant Saudi Arabia.
• North American production expected to grow by 3.9 million barrels a day between 2012 and 2018,
accounting for more than half of the increase in non-OPEC production for the period.
• Production in Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, Iran decreasing.
• US crude oil production has raced ahead of new pipeline infrastructure to move it from oil fields to
refineries.
• US recorded the worlds highest increase in natural gas consumption and production in
2012. (US also had highest drop in coal use.)
• Natural gas accounts for 25% of the energy consumed daily in the US.
• Net import of petroleum and other liquids consumption fell from 60% of total demand in 2005 to 45%
in 2011. Will be 34% of total demand in 2019.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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THE GROWING CYBER THREAT
• Since 2002, the FBI has seen an 84 percent increase in the number of computer intrusion
investigations.
• 556 million people are victim to cyber crime per year.
• In the first half of 2009, there were more than 40,000 cyber attacks against the Department of
Defense. According to BG John Davis (former Deputy Commander, Joint Task Force-Global Network
Operations (JTF-GNO), these attacks cost the Pentagon more than $100 million to clean up.
• In 2011, FBI Executive Assistant Director Shawn Henry reported that cyber criminals stole over $100
million from US banks.
• Nearly 39% of cyber attacks are on the Healthcare industry. Approximately 10% of attacks are
towards the Government and US Military.
• For fiscal year 2014 budget, the FBI have requested an additional 152 positions (60 special agents,
one intelligence analyst, and 91 professional staff) and $86.6 million to help address the Cyber threat.
• In February 2013, President Barack Obama issued the Cybersecurity Executive Order – outlining steps
the administration will take to protect critical US infrastructure from cybersecurity threats.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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2013-2016 NEAR TERM NATIONAL SECURITY
CHALLENGES TO AMERICA
•
#1 RISK -- WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN:
‒ 34,000 US forces in NATO-ISAF are 870 miles from the open sea--- and the US Navy.
‒ Pakistan safe transit essential to logistics survival of the force. (60,000 vehicles; 100,000
conex containers).
‒ 2014 declared withdrawal shapes entire political/military calculus of the Karzai government
and the Taliban.
‒ April 5, 2014 presidential election will largely shape the future of Afghanistan.
•
#2 RISK – Aggression by a nuclear armed Iran and war in the Gulf.
•
#3 RISK – North Korean transition fails. Military/nuclear confrontation with US, South Korea,
Japan.
•
#4 RISK – Pakistan implodes – General Kayani and the superb Pak Army/ISI lose control –
security of 90-110 nuclear weapons at risk.
•
#5 RISK – The popular Fidel Castro dies in Cuba - violent regime change takes place.
•
#6 RISK – The courageous Mexican PRI Administration of President Peña Nieto is countered by
the violence of the six drug cartels. Rule of law collapses.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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THE AMERICAN PEOPLE:
A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS
76%
US Military
57%
Police
48%
Religion
President
36%
35%
34%
32%
26%
23%
23%
Medical System
Supreme Court
Public Schools
Banks
Television news
Newspapers
Congress
0%
10%
20%
40%
60%
80%
**Source: The Gallup Organization, Poll dated June 13, 2013
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
November 2013
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
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