Transcript Slide 1

COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION
Presentation to:
Joint Senior Leaders’ Course
U.S. Army Maneuver Support Center of Excellence
April 16, 2010
BARRY R. McCAFFREY
GENERAL, USA (RETIRED)
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
United States Military Academy
2900 South Quincy Street, Suite 300A
Arlington, VA 22206
[email protected]
703-824-5160
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
1 of 13
Biography of General
Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (RET.)
Barry McCaffrey served in the United States Army for 32 years and retired as a four-star General.
At retirement, he was the most highly decorated serving General, having been awarded three Purple Heart
medals (wounded in combat three times), two Distinguished Service Crosses (the nation’s second highest
award for valor) and two Silver Stars for valor.
For five years after leaving the military, General McCaffrey served as the Director of the White
House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP). Upon leaving government service in 2001, he
served as the Bradley Distinguished Professor of International Security Studies for five years at the United
States Military Academy at West Point, NY. He continues as an Adjunct Professor of International Affairs.
In October 2004, General McCaffrey was elected by the Board of Directors of HNTB Corporation
(www.hntb.com) where he also serves as the chairman for the company’s federal business unit. HNTB
Corporation is an employee-owned infrastructure firm known and respected for its work in transportation,
tolls, bridges, aviation, rail, architecture and urban design and planning for federal, state and municipal
clients.
Currently, General McCaffrey is President of his own consulting firm based in Arlington, Virginia
www.mccaffreyassociates.com. He also serves as a national security and terrorism analyst for NBC News.
General McCaffrey graduated from Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass., in 1960; and from West Point
with a BS in 1964. He earned a master's degree in American Government from American University and
attended the Harvard University National Security Program as well as the Business School Executive
Education Program.
General McCaffrey is married to Jill Ann McCaffrey, with whom he has three children and six
grandchildren. Their son, Colonel Sean McCaffrey, is currently serving as an Army Infantry Brigade
Commander at Ft. Benning, GA.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
2 of 13
The Eight Principle Challenges
to Global Security
• The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.
• Regional war among nation states.
• Civil war and failed states.
• International terrorism.
• The global recession and poverty.
• International crime and drug cartels.
• Humanitarian crisis/refugees.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
3 of 13
Global Tools to Shape the
International Environment
•
Diplomacy is under-resourced and poorly organized.
•
International Development Assistance lacks money and leadership.
•
Arms Control is more effective than air attacks.
•
International Law Enforcement Cooperation is a major success.
•
Nonproliferation Initiatives lack a modern framework and international leadership.
•
Shaping World Opinion is a function of sound policy and collective diplomacy -- not slick
public relations.
•
International Covert Action and Intelligence Collection has improved enormously with new
resources and courageous dedication by the global intelligence community.
•
UN/NATO/US Military Intervention must be the tool of last resort. When employed it must
be violent, focused on clear objectives, and fully integrated with other elements of national
power.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
4 of 13
Protecting US Critical Infrastructure
•
Protecting America’s critical infrastructure and key assets is a formidable
challenge. Our open and technologically complex society presents a huge
array of targets.
•
The macro numbers are enormous: 87,000 communities; 1,800 federal
reservoirs; 2,800 power plants and 104 commercial nuclear power plants;
5,000 airports; 120,000 miles of railroads; 590,000 bridges; 2 million miles of
pipeline; 80,000 dams.
•
85% of our critical infrastructure is privately held. Critical Infrastructure
Protection (CIP) must be a public-private enterprise. Owner-operators must
protect their resources.
•
It is impossible to defend everything against every conceivable threat. We
must move beyond gates, guards, and guns. We need to design security
features into new infrastructure. We need new technology to protect
potentially high-casualty targets.
•
Federal Government support is vital in the transportation sector.
Transportation choke points are a particular concern. We must develop a
coordinated mechanism for assessing vulnerabilities and evaluating risk
mitigation activities.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
5 of 13
Thinking About Weapons
of Mass Pandemonium
•
Nukes at one extreme – WWI vintage mustard agent at other extreme. (Anthrax letters – 6
deaths and 22 cases of illness).
•
Toxicology / Bio-warfare or Bio-Terrorism?
•
WWI Influenza epidemic
•
Bio Warfare on battlefield against prepared US troops operationally inefficient – good biodetectors and delayed impact; However – excellent terrorist weapon.
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Chemical: “I can kill you with anything – let me choose the dose.” (LD50 of caffeine vs. VX Agent)
Classical chemical warfare agents are still effective – we’re well prepared but ‘inexperienced’.
Biological: with any unusual or emerging infectious disease --initial diagnosis will be very difficult.
1918 bug – 100 million dead in three waves.
Really hot ones tend to burn themselves out (you die before you shed the virus).
We have re-constructed 1918 influenza, and Nature keeps shuffling influenza’s genes.
(Anthrax, plague, tularemia, etc. all easy to grow in quantity)
•
Bio Proliferation really hard to detect.
•
Novel chemicals tough to control/detect. (circumvent CWC and Australia Group controls).
•
Forensics – we can tell you what it is – but not who made it.
–
–
–
Dual use – bacteria fermentation (benign spores in Tide detergent).
“Gene splicing” and “Molecular biology” now at high school level.
We have made synthetic polio from scratch.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
6 of 13
Nuclear Threat:
Status of World Nuclear Forces
COUNTRY
• Russia
• United States
• France
• China
• United Kingdom
• Israel
• Pakistan
• India
• North Korea
TOTAL INVENTORY
12,000
9,400
300
240
185
80
70-90
60-80
<10
TOTAL: ~22,300
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
7 of 13
The Nuclear Threat: Fissile Material
• Global stocks exceed 250 tons of civil plutonium – enough for tens of
thousands of nuclear weapons.
• No agreement between US and Russia concerning disposition of 34
metric tons of plutonium from decommissioned nuclear weapons.
• Each year – world produces enough civil plutonium to produce 1000+
nuclear devices.
• Non-weapons use of HEU is 4000 kilograms per year.
• 530 kilograms of HEU in Mexico, South Africa, Serbia, Ukraine, Belarus,
etc.
• 3.5 million pounds of HEU and 1.1 million pounds of plutonium in 40
countries.
• 20 kilograms of HEU will produce a nuclear device.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
8 of 13
The Chemical Threat
• 71,000+ metric tons of chemical agent in the world.
– 40,886 metric tons (57.43%) of world stockpile verifiably
destroyed.
– 3.93 million (45.33%) of 8.67 million chemical munitions and
containers covered by the CWC have been verifiably destroyed.
• If you can make good beer – you can make low stability,
poorly weaponized nerve agent or mustard agent.
• The US Armed Forces can operate with complete
effectiveness under active chemical attack.
• Chemical attack by non-state actors against an
unprotected, unwarned, confined population will be a
disaster.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
9 of 13
US Nuclear Deterrence at Risk
•
Credibility of US “Nuclear umbrella” for 30 allied nations -- Administration
objective of a “nuclear free world”. (April 2009 Prague speech)
•
US Nukes all more than 20 years old.
•
US Nuclear physical infrastructure well over 60 years old.
•
No testing since 1992. (1,054 tests 1945-1992)
•
Congress killed Reliable Replacement Warhead Program in 2007.
•
Life extension of nuclear warheads has focus on “refurbishment” or “Reuse”
only. “Replacement” (previously tested designs) only as last resort with
presidential approval.
•
Nuclear Policy Review appeared to disengage nuclear retaliation from
chemical or biological attack.
•
Prague Treaty April 2010 with Russia – no application to North Korea, Iran,
Pakistan, India.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
10 of 13
Maintaining Credible
United States WMD Deterrence
• Verifiable treaties with strong international support, monitoring, and
reporting.
• Strong international law enforcement and intelligence agency
cooperation.
• Strong international economic sanctions.
• A deployed, continuously modernized strategic and tactical US antimissile defense system.
– Airborne laser – boost phase
– Aegis Naval missile – mid-course
– ABM – end phase
• A robust, protected, modernized US strategic and tactical nuclear
strike capability accompanied by the declaratory political will to
employ a retaliatory response. (USAF strike aircraft and USN
submarine force.)
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
11 of 13
Right of Boom – Where is the Fear?
•
The US will be attacked by a non-state actor employing radiological devices or
biological agents in the coming decade.
•
Eventually our nuclear deterrence will lack technical credibility.
•
There is a small probability (5%) of employment of a low yield nuclear device against
an American city in the coming 50 years.
•
There is a modest probability (20%) of employment of nuclear weapons by state
actors in the coming 50 years.
•
We need a US National Guard force of 600,000 troops to respond to CONUS WMD
attack. (Domestic military universal service).
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
WMD reconnaissance and decontamination.
Military police and motorized infantry.
Field medical hospitals.
Engineer heavy construction.
Logistics.
USAF C17 and C130 airlift.
US Army helicopter lift.
US Joint tactical and strategic communications capability.
US military command and control (deployable TOC’s).
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
12 of 13
Looking Toward the Future
• 1st: Non-proliferational treaties.
• 2nd: Strengthen:
– The CIA
– The Customs and Border Protection Agency
– The US Marshal Service
– The FBI
– The Coast Guard
– The Public Health Service
– The USAID
– The USIA
• 3rd: Build the National Guard we need for homeland security
and defense.
GEN Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.)
16 April 2010
www.mccaffreyassociates.com
13 of 13