Employment - MSS Research
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Transcript Employment - MSS Research
Strategies for Full Employment
National Commission on
Enterprises in the Informal/Unorganized Sector
January 7, 2005
The Mother’s Service Society, Pondicherry
1
Unemployment
1993-94
20M
1999-00
27M
Twice as high for lower consumption classes
On daily basis
35M
Youth Unemployment
13%
Kerala
35%
2
Natural Employment Generation
New entrants to labour force
Urban migration
`
7-8M/yr
1M/yr
Agriculture employment is flat
Less growth in unemployment
Natural job generation
-1M/yr
7-8M/yr
The absence of social unrest and the fact that urban migration continues and
urban unemployment does not rise enormously indicate the surpluses are
being absorbed.
This is unorganized, unconscious process akin to education without schools
Make the unconscious process CONSCIOUS
3
How society stimulates employment
New products
Higher skills
New services
Increased speed
Growth in demand
Change of attitudes
Technological innovation
Better access to information
Higher quality
Legislation & enforcement
Higher productivity
Administrative efficiency
Organizational innovation
Health consciousness
Environment awareness
4
Three Approaches to Employment Generation
Expand existing activities
Nursery schools, tutorial institutes, English teaching
Borrow from other countries
Credit rating & collection agencies
Trade shows & network marketing
Health clinics
Promote culturally compatible activities
STD & Internet Cafes
Chit funds
Self-Help Groups
Contract farming agencies
Mini-power plants
Rural information centres
Marriage halls
5
Available Modes of Action
Increase access to credit
Provide incentives for new initiatives
Strengthen or enforce legislation
Impart training
Use insurance as a stimulus
Publicize opportunities in the media
6
Where are the untapped potentials
Raise farm productivity
Renewable energy
Agro-industrial linkages
Service sector
Employable skills
Application of IT
7
Horticulture
Labour content 6 times cereals
Generates 10-30 times earning / unit area
Filling India’s nutritional gap requires 40% growth
Add 4M ha horticulture to raise production 40%
Generate 8 million jobs
8
Food Processing
Improve storage & processing to reduce Rs 70,000 crores in
crop losses
Global share of processed food exports is rising
India processes only 2% fruits & vegetables vs. Thailand 30%,
Brazil 70%, Philippines & Malaysia 78-80%)
India projected to process 10% fruit & veg by 2010
Industry directly employs 1.6M
Requires massive investment in cold storage
9
Power Demand to Triple by 2020
1997
BAU 2020
BCS 2020
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
10
0
Industry
Transport
Agriculture
Commercial
Residential
Total
Oil Demand to Triple by 2020
1997
BAU 2020
BCS 2020
Total
Domestic
Commercial
Agriculture
Transport
Industry
Power
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cotton & Textile Industry
India is 3rd largest producer of cotton
Domestic demand projected to grow 70% by 2010
Export demand projected to triple by 2010
Double productivity of cotton
Double area under irrigated cotton
12 million additional jobs in textile industry
17
Forestry, Herbs, Medicinal Plants
100 M rely on forests for main source of
livelihood, including half of India’s 70M tribals
Objective to raise forest cover 50% in 10 ys
Introduce corporate contract farming with bonded
performance guarantees & assured employment
for local population
18
Fisheries
World seafood market doubled in the 1990s
India’s marine & inland fisheries employ 6M
1/3rd of India’s marine fishery potential untapped
China full-time employment in rural aquaculture
1989 – 1.5M
1997 – 3.3M
Shrimp farming -- 4 direct & 4 indirect jobs per ha
1999 – 161,000 ha generates employment for 1.3M
Additional 120,000 ha would create 1M jobs
19
Dairy
Rs 100,000 crores by 2005
India is largest and lowest cost producer
70M dairy farmers
Cooperatives provide employment for 11M
families
Potential for 42M jobs
20
Organization for Rural Prosperity
Self Help Groups
Contract Farming
Rural Information Centers
Farm Schools
22
Self Help Groups
1 million created in 3 years
15 million members benefit
90%+ repayment of loans
Mostly for non-farm activities
Commodity-wise SHGs for agriculture
Appachi Foundation & ICICI – 60 SHGs for cotton
growers in Tamil Nadu
23
Rural IT Knowledge Centres
Mission 2007 – 500,000 village centres
Can create 5 jobs per centre
Can charge for services
Soil analysis -- expert system for advice
Multi-media farm training
Input supply information
Market information
Educational information
Health information
E-government services
Other vocational training
24
Service Sector
USA: provides 80% of jobs
India:
Grew by 60M jobs in 18 yrs
Rose from 25% to 32% of total employment
High potential fields
Tourism
Transport, storage, communication
Education
Health care
Financial services
Internet-based activities
25
Internet-based Self-Employment
Desktop publishing
Web design
Web research
E-books
Translation
Technical writing
Engineering & technical services
Opportunities from Rs 5000 to 1 lakh per month
26
Vocational Skills
50% of firms in developing and industrialized
countries report severe shortage of skilled workers.
India’s problem is not lack of employment
opportunities but lack of employable skills.
Skills create employment and self-employment
opportunities.
27
Vocational Skills Gap
Only 5% of India’s workforce (20-24 years) have
vocational training compared with 28% in Mexico
and 96% in Korea.
By 2010 major labour shortages will emerge in the
industrialized nations forcing movement of both
manufacturing & service jobs to wherever the skills
are best.
Upgrading skills essential to tap global markets
28
Vocational Training in India
4200 ITIs
1,654 government run
2,620 private
Courses offered
43 engineering & 24 non-engineering trades
Capacity – 6.3 lakhs
State enterprise programmes – 1.7 lakh
Including agriculture & other – 20 lakh
29
Vocational Training Deficit
Students completing 8th-9th standard
300 lakhs
Students entering 10th-11th
150 lakhs
New entrants to workforce (per year)
70 lakhs
Vocational training in engineering, agriculture &
other fields
20 lakhs
New entrants to workforce w/o training
50 lakhs
Existing unemployed youth (15-29) of which 80%
are educated up to 10th
150 lakhs
Existing workers to be trained to raise non-ag
skilled portion to 25%
350 lakhs
30
Three Models
Farm Schools in every revenue village
Vocational Schools
Computerized & Televised Vocational Training
31
Vocational Schools
Promote vocational institutes at block and district level
5000 govt
50,000 private
Conduct exams for every skill as for drivers licenses
Certify approved training centres, e.g. BPO
Provide scholarships & incentives for trainees
32
Computer-based learning is
twice as fast @ half the cost
Multimedia
Interactive
Immediate Feedback
Self-paced learning
Eliminates need for trained teachers
Responds rapidly to changing skill needs
Uniform testing
33
Computerized Vocational Training
Establish 1 lakh CVT Institutes like internet cafes
50,000 in private sector
50,000 training centres at engineering and arts
colleges, ITIs, polytechs, high schools, NGOs, etc.
Partnership with industry to develop multimedia
training software
Provide training to a minumum of 4 million students
per annum
Government certification of courses
Generate self-employment opportunities for 50,000
entrepreneurs
34
Multimedia vocational courses
English
Child care
Nutritionist
Selling skills
Real estate
Law clerk
Telemarketing
Insurance agent
Quality manager
Catering
Video editing
Furniture design
Farm mgmt
Pharma rep
Textile design
Reporting
Dry cleaning
Electrical repair
Travel agent
Internet research
Graphic design
Bookkeeper
Organic farming
Interior design
35
CVT Job Shops
Privately owned, self-employment
Each centre with 1 to 10 computers
Stocked with a library of training software
Training material on CD-Rom format
Fees based on an hourly rate
36
CVT Job Shop: Assumptions
Three computers per Job Shop
20 training programmes per Job Shop
Each computer utilized 300 hours per mo
Operating expenses for rent, two paid
employees, phone, electricity may range from
Rs 15,000 to 20,000 per month
37
CVT Job Shop: Economics
Capital investment Rs 1.5 lakh.
Cost of operations per computer hour = Rs 20 / hour.
Cost of amortising of computers and software over two
years = Rs 14 per hour
Average cost of training = Rs 35 per hour
Average retail price of training = Rs 50 per hour
Net profit = Rs 15 per hour or Rs 1.5 lakhs / yr
50 hours of computerized vocational training, equivalent to
about 250 hours of classroom training, would cost the
student only Rs 2500.
38
Training Software: Economics
Cost Rs 50 lakhs per course
Retail price Rs 1000 per set
Sale of 10,000 sets generates Rs 50 lakhs profit
Offer 50% government subsidy for development
of approved courses
39
CVT Action Plan
1. Delivery CVT through all state-owned engineering colleges, ITIs,
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Polytechnics, liberal arts colleges, high schools, other institutions
certified by GOI.
Provide financial assistance/ incentives under Central Government selfemployment schemes to promote private training institutes.
Encourage financial institutions to provide loans to entrepreneurs.
Negotiate with computer software companies to develop a wide range
of vocational training courses.
Recognized institutional authorities to certify course contents.
Finance bulk purchase of approved training software with 50% subsidy
to minimize the cost of training.
Train entrepreneurs to set up/manage private institutes.
Provide scholarships to low income youth to cover training fees. 40
Who creates enterprises?
Skilled experienced workers leaving existing jobs
create enterprises
Machinists
taxi drivers
hotel servers
bus cleaners
Printers
tailors
Do entrepreneurial training programmes work?
41
Promoting Entrepreneurship
Extend bank credit & seed capital to employees with 5
years experience & guarantee their right to return to job
Require training & certification for new enterprises to
reduce failure rate
Existing entrepreneur to sign as guarantor
Insurance companies can ensure loans based on
qualifications
42
Identify Self-employment Opportunities
Tuitions
English teaching
Child care
Home care – Apollo Hospitals
Home delivery
Pharmacists
43
Computerized Self-Employment
Internet research
E-books
Translation
Technical writing
Web page design
E-marketing
Computer loans for self-employment on easy terms
44
IT Incubator Business Parks
Computerised vocation training
Computerised tuitions institutes
Computerised language training
Software training
Video-conferencing services
High speed data transfer services
Web, graphic and animation design services
Computerized testing laboratories – medical, soil testing
Computer repair and maintenance services
International Internet telephony
Computer hardware parts manufacturing and assembly
Customer and technical support call centres
Back office processing
Medical transcription
Digital photography, scanning and image processing
Internet research services
Accounting services
45
Employment Guarantee Scheme
Once backed by law, the people will demand it.
Administration lacks determination and efficiency
to make it happen.
Possibility of unrest and violence.
Require administrative ordinance confined to
EGS to enforce implementation.
46
Issues for Study
Natural job creation -- past 5 opr 10 years
How many jobs are being created?
In which sectors & fields?
By what process?
How can the natural process be magnified and accelerated?
How are rural migrants absorbed in the cities?
Occupational demand
Identify high growth occupational categories at all levels
Measure growth in pay/income levels by category
Emerging Activities
Identify emerging occupations in all sectors,
Farm managers & Soil technicians
Servicing for cell phones, ACs, computers, VCDs, etc.
Home delivery, floor cleaner, masseuse
Skills for national development
Compile a complete list of skills needed for India’s development to next higher level
Job creation in other countries
Study which job categories grew rapidly in US during a comparable period?
Study developments in other countries that will impact on job opportunities here.
Efficacy of Entrepreneurial Development Programmes
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