Transcript Slide 1

Integrated Resource Plan
May 2010
1
What is it?
• “Integrated Resource Plan means a resource plan
established by the national sphere of government
to give effect to national policy” (legal definition
in the Electricity Regulation Act No.4 of 2006)”
• “It is a planning process that seeks to identify the
future energy demand and the energy mix that
will meet that demand
• It takes into account all the aspects of the
electricity value chain, generation, transmission
and distribution”
2
IRP Stakeholder Engagement Process
• The DoE’s mandate is to undertake a long-term planning function to
develop an integrated resource plan (IRP) to meet South Africa’s
electricity requirements.
• The IRP 1 Gazetted in December 2009 paved the way for the
development of IRP 2 through a consultative process.
• The Stakeholder Engagement Process will began in mid-March 2010
and continued through to early June 2010 (Public Participation process
will kick-off).
• The purpose of the process is to:
– Ensure effective exchange of information between critical stakeholders.
– Focus the discussion of the planning issues.
– Receive the benefit of early stakeholder comments that could be
incorporated into the Plan.
– Build a common understanding of the task, its challenges, the
Department’s analytical approach and the design of the Plan.
Load forecast
Annual RSA energy sent-out forecast
600,000
4%
This is a forecast for national sent-out
(including imports) –
500,000
3.6%
450,000
3.6%
400,000
2.4%
350,000
300,000
250,000
High
Mod
Revised
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200,000
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Energy sent-out (GWh)
550,000
Low
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Scenarios
Scn
1
Name
Conditions
Reference plan
Least-cost; direct costs only; limited project options
2a
Domestic emission
(Emission Constraint 1)
• Hard constraint of 275Mt/a in all years
• Options should include Wind to 3200MW; CSP to 10000MW;
Nuclear up to 33000MW; Discount rate
2b
Regional emission
(Emission Constraint 2)
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Hard constraint of 275Mt/a domestic and 40Mt/a imported in all
years
Options as per 2a
2c
Delayed regional
emission (Emission
Constraint 3)
2d
Carbon Tax
Alter input costs to include carbon tax as per the Long Term
Mitigation Strategy
3a
IPP alternates 1
Force in Mmamabula, Moamba, MSBLP
3b
IPP alternates 2
Force in Mpanda Nkua, MTPPP2 (over and above IPP alternates 1)
• No constraint before 2025, apply constraint of
275Mt/a domestic and 40Mt/a imported after 2025.
• Allow some advanced decommissioning or ramping
down of existing coal options to reduce to hard
target in 2025
• Other options as per 2a
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Stakeholder Engagement Objectives
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The Process hopes to achieve the following objectives:
– Stakeholders have the opportunity to participate to the degree that they want to, and on
the areas which they had the most interest.
– Stakeholders are able to comment on topics they deemed important that might be outside
the scope of the IRP planning process, for example the national energy plan.
– The workshops will enable DoE to share their planning challenges, approach, and
considerations on the various Plan elements first-hand.
• Stakeholders have the opportunity to share their perspectives with the DoE and other
stakeholders.
– Stakeholders are able to learn about the complexity of the IRP process as the various
elements of the Plan are developed.
– Respect for stakeholders and acknowledgment of the range of stakeholder interests and
priorities.
Getting Stakeholder Alignment
• Several critical elements on which Stakeholder Alignment is crucial:
– Importance, role and scope of the IRP
– Need to balance Security of Supply, Affordability and Emissions
– Complexity of the Challenge (e.g., engaging stakeholders, technical and policy
constraints, projecting future supply, demand and supply technology issues)
– Need for quality data, assumptions and analyses that inform decisions. Need
for flexibility, adaptability and contingency planning.
– Need for flexibility, adaptability and contingency planning.
• Several Stakeholders have already shown that the following aspects will
require some debate:
– The role and feasibility of Carbon Commitments and Renewables
– The role and feasibility of a Coal Phase-Out
– The role of Nuclear Power
Stakeholder Buy-in of the Engagement Process
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It is critical to ensure Stakeholder buy-in to the engagement process since faith
in the process will result in trust in the output
Greater engagement at the initial stages will result in less intense interactions
as the plan is developed (ie more and more agreement as the plan nears
completion)
The process success depends on:
– Being transparent going forward and inclusive.
– The Department taking leadership and continuing dialogue with stakeholders.
regarding issues of supply options, protection for the poor, Affordability, Distribution
issues, demand scenarios, and Carbon Commitments.
– Encourage more involvement from residential, commercial, and manufacturing
customers.
– Facilitate participation by organisations that may have limited time or resources.
– Continue stakeholder dialogue in order to gain “consensus” and to “educate” the
public about the vision for sustainable electricity in South Africa.
Electricity Country Planning Process (IRP)
Planning
Parameters
Updated
STAGE
SO
IRP
DoE
IRP
Government
IRP
Governance
Technical
WHO
WHEN
HOW
WHY
DoE
NERSA
SO
DoE
??
2009
Oct
2009
Internal Concept Plan
by Eskom SO
Regulated
RSA
IRP
ID TT
Apr
2010
DoE IRP TT
Expert
Cold Eye
Review
ID TT
Ministerial
Alignment &
Conflict Resolution
Public
Jun
2010
Request for
Comment
Gazetted
Regulated
Regulated
Stage Steps
Planning parameters
reviewed, Assessed &
Agreed
Modelling,
Assessments &
Scenarios Run
Conclusions
Sept
2010
Plan Complete
IRP Stakeholder Engagement Process
Input Parameters
& Constraints
STAGE
Models and
Conclusions
Draft
IRP
Government
IRP
Governance
Technical
Identified
Stakeholders
Identified
Stakeholders
WHEN
March
2010
April
2010
HOW
Written Input and
Facilitated Sessions
WHO
WHY
Identified
Stakeholders
Regulated
RSA
IRP
Written Input &
Q&A Sessions
External
Perspectives
ID TT
May
2010
ID TT
Ministerial
Alignment &
Conflict Resolution
Public
Jun
2010
Request for
Comment
Gazetted
Regulated
Regulated
Stage Steps
Planning parameters
reviewed, Assessed &
Agreed
Modelling,
Assessments &
Scenarios Run
Conclusions
Sept
2010
Plan Complete
The critical consultation sheets
Parameter
Discount rate
Demand Forecast
Energy Intensity (Long)
Energy Intensity (Short)
Economic multipliers
Rate of Exchange
Inflation
GDP
Cost of energy not served
Price Elasticity
DSM
EE
DMP
Conservation
Gx Mix Parameter
Cogeneration
Nuclear
Funding / Financing
Owner
Key Outcome
NT
DOE
DTI
DOE
NPlanning
NT
NT
NT
DOE
NT
DOE
DOE
SO
DOE/NERSA
DOE
DOE
DOE
NT
Price cone
Security of supply
Security of supply
Security of supply
Key Outcome
Price cone
Price cone
Price cone
Security of supply
Price cone
Security of supply
Security of supply
Security of supply
Security of supply
Price cone
Price cone
Carbon
Price cone
The critical consultation sheets
Parameter
Owner
Gx Lifecycle Costs
Reserve Margin
Own Generation
Imports
Price cone
Renewables
Water
DOE
DOE
DOE
SAPP
DOE
DOE
DWAF
IRP 2010 Approach & Methodology Overview DOE
IRP Consultation Plan
DOE
Carbon & Climate Change
DEAT
Carbon taxes
DEAT
Distribution
DOE
Base Scenarios
DOE/NERSA
Gx Location
DOE
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Key Outcome
Price cone
Security of supply
Price cone
Security of supply
Key Outcome
Carbon
Externality
Governance
Governance
Carbon
Carbon
Externality
Key Outcome
Externality
Identified Stakeholders
Business
Labour
• BLSA
• BUSA
• CoM
• IPP
• EIUG
• COSATU
• NACTU
• FEDUSA
• Solidarity
• NUM
Civil Society
• IDASA
• WWF
• Communities (to be determined)
Government
• Municipal
• SALGA
• IDTT
• AMEU
Key IRP 2010 milestones updated 17 May 2010
1.
IRP 2010 input consultation sheets available on the WEB for public input (DOE)
2.
IMC progress review of consultation process
3.
Closing date for 1st round of public input (DOE)
4.
1st Public hearings on IRP 2010 input sheets (DG DOE)
5.
Complete modelling of scenarios and 1st draft IRP 2010 (ISO Planning)
6.
IMC approve 1st draft IRP 2010 for public hearing (DG DOE)
7.
2nd Public hearing on 1st draft IRP(DOE)
8.
IMC approve daft IRP 2010 for cabinet to review (IMC)
9.
Cabinet approve IRP 2010 to gazette for public participation (IMC)
May
June
July
Consultation on IRP key planning input
parameters process
Aug
Sept
Public Participation in IRP
to Promulgation Process
11
24
30
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7
15
23
26
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10. IRP 2010 gazetted for public participation (Minister DOE)
11. Public participation process closes
12. IMC approve Final IRP 2010 to be promulgated (IMC)
To be confirmed
13. Cabinet approve Final IRP 2010 for promulgation (IMC)
14. Promulgate IRP 2010
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Conclusion
• The building of new power stations is critical to ensure we keep the
lights on
• Stakeholder engagement is critical to ensure South Africans have their
say in our energy mix for the future
• We have a website www.doe-irp.co.za which will be a portal for
engagement