Transcript New Fuels and Technologies for Powertrains

New Fuels and
Technologies for
Powertrains
State of the Art and
prospective for the
Automotive Industry
Oscar Ciordia
FITSA Foundation
GM
Yet another summary & crystal ball?
• The world is full of congresses, scientific
publications, books, etc… describing the
Transport Sector efforts on solving the
sustainability issues and trying to guess the
future.
• BUT…
• Is there a complete, rigorous, synthesis of
all the eforts?
• Is there a compelling synthesis on the
views for the future?
• The answer is NO
Goal
• Make a thorough knowledge search on the
scientific literature for all the technical proposals
on powertrains and alternative fuels.
• Synthesis and coherence work to build a manual
that compiles in a brief publication tons of written
papers and abstracts.
• Review all the relevant forecasts on future
technology share and look for agreements. Build
the most agreeded upon future based on it.
Topic of today
• We will describe the process and results
from the forecasting exercise.
– Benefit: Conclusions of the final
forecast.
• The work is currently just in Spanish.
FITSA is glad to give the rights for
translation and publication in any other
language for non profit purposes.
Methodology (I)
• Based on the well known Delphi method.
– The Delphi method is based on the assumption
that group judgments are more valid than
individual judgments.
– The Delphi method was developed at the
beginning of the cold war to forecast the impact of
technology
on
warfare:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/2006/P3925.pdf
It was developed by Project RAND during the
1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman
Dalkey, and Nicholas Resche
Methodology (II)
•
Key characteristics and benefits of Delphi:
–
Structuring of information flow
• The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to
questionnaires and their comments to these answers.
• The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by
processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content.
• This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves
the usual problems of group dynamics.
– Regular feedback
• Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on
the progress of the panel as a whole.
• At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group
meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often
conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents it.
– Anonymity of the participants
• Usually all participants maintain anonymity. Their identity is not revealed even
after the completion of the final report.
• This stops them from dominating others in the process using their authority or
personality, frees them to some extent from their personal biases, minimizes
the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows them to freely express their
opinions, encourages open critique and admitting errors by revising earlier
judgments.
Process followed (I)
• 1st: Different technical alternatives for fuels
and propulsions analyzed in detail with the
following criteria:
– Socioeconomic impact.
– Energy efficiency.
– Pollutants and CO2 emissions.
• 2nd: Definition of key parameters:
– By selected experts from all affected actors.
– Affecting the future viability of the
technology.
Key parameters
Key factor
Description and influence variables
1. Raw material
and energy sources.
 Raw material and energy resources
availability.
2.
Technological
and business
resources
 Technology and business model development
stage.
3.
Market
 Fuel supply infrastructure.
 Vehicle market development stage.
 Overall cost of ownership (vehicle cost + fuel
cost)
4.
Environmental
benefits
 GHE.
 Pollutants emissions.
5.
Energy benefits.
 Energy efficiency
6.
Socio-political
aspects
 Political commitment, legal framework.
 Social benefits, especially in regards with
employment
 User perception.
Process Followed (II)
• 3rd: A weight was assigned to each parameter
according with its influence on the market
introduction.
Parameter
Weight (1-10)
Weight (%)
Raw material and resources availability.
7
7.95
Technological state of development
9
10.23
Fuel supply infrastructure.
10
11.36
Availability of vehicles in the market
5
5.68
Sales volume
5
5.68
Overall cost of ownership (vehicle cost + fuel cost)
10
11.36
GHE emissions
7
7.95
Pollutants emissions
7
7.95
Energy efficiency
8
9.01
Political commitment, legal framework.
9
10.23
Social benefits, especially in regards with employment
5
5.68
User perception
6
6.82
Process Followed (IV)
• 4th: For each technology rank each
parameter according to a 1 to 5 scale on
2007-2010-2015-2020 time steps
Current (2007)
2010
2015
2020
HCCI
4,00
3,83
3,67
3,67
CAI
3,80
3,80
3,60
3,60
Biodiesel
2,50
3,50
3,88
4,38
Bioethanol
2,38
3,38
3,88
4,25
GTL
3,43
3,57
3,86
3,57
BTL
2,14
2,43
3,14
3,57
Lignocelulósic Ethanol
1,67
2,17
3,83
4,17
Natural Gas
4,57
4,57
4,43
4,00
PLG
4,14
4,00
3,86
3,71
Electric Vehicles
3,29
3,57
4,00
4,29
Hibrid Vehicles
3,43
3,43
3,71
3,86
Fuel Cells
2,00
2,56
3,11
4,00
Hidrogen on ICE
2,33
2,67
3,33
3,78
Process Followed (V)
• 5th: A final score was calculated using each
parameter weight.
Technology/Fuel
2007
2010
2015
2020
HCCI
2.87
2.99
3.23
3.33
CAI
2.80
2.89
3.11
3.14
Biodiesel
3.19
3.59
3.91
4.00
Bioethanol
3.02
3.46
3.77
3.90
GTL
2.49
2.71
3.14
3.27
BTL
2.44
2.66
3.31
3.59
Lignocellulosic ethanol
2.30
2.57
3.50
3.80
Natural Gas
3.07
3.33
3.52
3.57
LPG
2.72
2.85
3.08
3.10
Electric Vehicles
2.79
3.02
3.43
3.75
Hybrid Vehicles
3.16
3.48
3.86
4.01
Fuel Cell vehicles
2.32
2.64
3.17
3.78
Hydrogen in ICE
2.33
2.64
3.15
3.61
Process: Summary
Parameter Selection
Parameter weight selection
For each technology.
Parameter scoring by experts
For each technology.
Calculate Global Indicator
Delphi second round
Final Global Indicator for each technology
Results (Powertrains)
• ICE will remain on leadership for next future due to its cost,
investments, reliability and fuel flexibility.
• HCCI and CAI will increase share very, very slowly.
• HEV and EV considerable penetration rate short-mid term helped by
Policy support.
• FC slow penetration conditioned by infrastructure (also for H2 in ICEs)
and Technology development.
Results (Fuels)
• Biodiesel, bioethanol, GTL, BTL increase share on 2015 with 2nd
generation biofuels.
• BTL shows higher penetration rate starting with high scale production.
Better environment and efficiency behavior helps. Same trend for Lignoethanol.
• LPG and NG increase penetration with NG winning. NG is a clear
winner for most UE countries.
• H2 grows slow due to infrastructure.
Discussion (I)
• The best discussion is to put ourselves face
to face with the plethora of forecasts:
EUCAR
EARPA
HYNET
FURORE
HYWAYS
Discussion (II)
• FI (intro date) date when the
technology or fuel penetration
will start;
• FC (consolidation date) >
80% market penetration is
expected.
• R&D period (in red);
• Market growth (in yellow);
• Mass penetration (in green).
Road Maps key messages agreed
• Some modifications as i.e. EGR, catalysts, etc, are already in the
market and they are undergoing an important development. The rest of
the modifications as Stop & Start, DPF, etc will be probably introduced
in a short-term in all vehicle models
• Alternative fuels as GTL and LPG, will not consolidate in the market.
Due to the fact that they do not entail any GHE reduction.
• Biofuels and in the mid-term the second generation biofuels are one
of the most promising alternatives to reduce GHE and petrol
dependence followed in the long-term by hydrogen generated by
renewals.
• HCCI and CAI are proposed as a bridge towards fuel cell propulsions
although it seems that they will not dominate the market.
• HRV and EV are good alternatives but it is necessary to
accommodate current electric infrastructure and its technological
development. “Cross the Chasm”
• FC will increase market share slowly as it will also be the case with
hydrogen in ICE. (Yet another infrastructure??)
Summary (90% of world agrees)
• Clear future trend towards
energy diversification and the
coexistence
of
different
technologies and fuels.
• Each technology will impact
on different market niches
attending to their fitness for
different applications.
Most likely scenario will
be controlled by a high
percentage of more
efficient petrol and
diesel propulsions and
with a higher specific
performance.
For alternative fuels the
European objective of
20% of total consumption
by 2020 will be probably
reached thanks to the
usage of biofuels, second
generation biofuels and
natural gas.
Market share for EV and
HEV will reach more than
10% in 2015 thanks to cost
reductions (economies of
scale
and
technological
development).
As far as hydrogen in ICE is concerned, it will participate in this
diversification as well, although it will probably be replaced in
the long-term by FC based propulsions as soon as the
technology and the infrastructure are developed and cost is
decreased.
Thanks for your attention!!!
For more information: www.fundacionfitsa.org