Transcript Green Urbanization in Asia

Guanghua Wan
Principal Economist
Main Messages
• Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in
several aspects
• … leading to enormous challenges possibly
including environmental degradation
• But urbanization can help!
• To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization
policies shall exploit unique features of Asia’s
urbanization and late comer’s advantage
Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented
Increase in Urban Population (million)
Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions)
1200
1000
1.06 billion
1 billion
800
600
400
200
0
1980-2010
2010-2040
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Indonesia
India
China, People's Rep. of
Rest of Asia & Pacific
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
Unique feature 1: very fast speed
Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate
Latin America and
Caribbean
210 years
10%
North America
105 years
9%
Europe
49%
51%
150 years
12%
51%
Asia and the Pacific
95 years
11%
Viet Nam
12%
Indonesia
12%
Lao PDR
90 years
65 years
10%
Bhutan
10%
China, People's Rep. of
11%
1750
1775
1800
1825
1850
1875
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
1900
1925
51%
1950
54%
60 years
52%
55 years
61 years
1975
50%
2000
51%
51%
2025
2050
Unique feature 2: highest densities in
the world…
Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007
35000
Asia & the Pacific (17/25)
Africa
Europe
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Source: www.citymayors.com
São Paulo
Hyderabad
Shenyang
Baghdad
Cairo
Ho Chi Minh City
Bangalore
Tianjin
Jakarta
Tehran
Manila
Kinshasa
Delhi
Beijing
Lima
Shanghai
Bogota
Chennai
Taipei,China
Seoul/Incheon
Shenzhen
Lagos
Karachi
Kolkata
0
Mumbai
Density (person/m2)
30000
Unique feature 3: many megacities
Megacities, 2010
ASIA: 12/23
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to
(39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of
the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or
endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unique feature 4: low starting base
Level of Urbanization by Region (%)
100
90
Level of Urbanization (%)
80
67%
70
63%
60
52%
50
43%
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Unique feature 5: the largest cities
are likely to grow bigger
Urban Primacy (%, 2009)
25
Ratio of Population in Largest Cities
over Urban Population (%)
21
20
15
12
10
5
0
Asia
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
Non-Asia
… thus more and bigger megacities
are emerging
Megacities, 2025
ASIA: 21/37
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to
(39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of
the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement
of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unprecedented urbanization poses
enormous challenges already serious
• Growing inequalities
• Rising urban crimes
• Expansion of slums
• Above all, environmental degradation
 Pollution
 Vulnerability to flooding
Ahwaz
Ulaanbaatar
Sanandaj
Ludhiana
Kermanshah
Yasouj
Kanpur
Delhi
Lucknow
Uromiyeh
Qom
Indore
Khoramabad
Agra
Al Ain
Lanzhou
Kolkata
Van
Xining
Urumqi
Faridabad
Greater Cairo
Mexicali
Jabalpur
Mumbai
Dhanbad
Ilam
Allahabad
Bushehr
Kerman
Jinan
Beijing
Patna
Sarajevo
Abu Dhabi
Meerut
Xi'an
Jaipur
Qazvin
Medan
Chengdu
Hefei
Shenyang
Taiyuan
Varanasi
Chongqing
Wuhan
Esfahan
Shijiazhuang
Konya
Kars
Hamedan
Arak
Harbin
Tianjin
Nanjing
Denizli
PM10 Level (micrograms/cubic meter)
67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities
fail to meet EU air quality standard
400
Cities with PM10 above 100 ug/m3 (2008-2009)
350
300
Asia and the Pacific (34/57)
Non-Asia and the Pacific
250
200
150
100
50
EU
standard
0
Source: WHO (2012).
CO2 emissions grow fast in Asia
Growth of Per Capita CO2 Emissions over 2000-2008 (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
97%
18%
Asia
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
Non-Asia
… and three of the top five CO2
emitting economies are in Asia.
Top 5 Countries in terms of CO2 Emissions
8000000
7000000
CO2 emissions (kt)
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
China, People's
Rep. of
United States
India
Russian
Federation
Japan
Environment may degrade further
with growth
Asia’s Environmental Kuznets Curve
Peak=$40,971
Peak=$40,971
0
5
10
15
2010=$6,107
2010=$6,107
0
5000
10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
CO2 emissions may triple under the
business-as-usual scenario
Projected CO2 emissions based on latest EKC
CO2 emissions (tons/capita)
12
10.2
10
9.3
7.6
8
5.6
6
4
3.4
3.5
2008
2010
2
0
2020
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
2030
2040
2050
Asia is more vulnerable to coastal
flooding
Risk of Coastal Flooding by Region, 2000
Urban
population
at Risk
(million)
Share of
Urban
Population at Area at
Risk
Risk
(%)
('000 km2)
Share of
Area at
Risk (%)
Africa
32
11
18
6
Asia and Pacific
251
18
129
11
Latin America
24
8
42
6
Europe
40
7
56
7
Source: ADB estimates based on McGranahan et al. 2007.
Coastal flooding is clustered in PRC, South
& Southeast Asia: Top 15 cities, 2000
Country
PRC
PRC
Bangladesh
PRC
PRC
PRC
PRC
Indonesia
Thailand
PRC
PRC
India
PRC
Indonesia
Viet Nam
City
Tianjin
Panjin
Khulna
Nantong
Changzhou
Jiangyin
Suzhou
Palembang
Bangkok
Wuxi
Shanghai
Kolkata
Ningbo
Ujung Pandang
Ho Chi Minh
Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
Population
at risk (%)
100.0
100.0
99.9
99.8
99.0
96.8
95.8
94.2
93.3
91.1
90.8
89.0
85.6
85.4
79.3
Population City Area at
at risk ('000) risk (km2)
5,500
2081
1,000
690
1,100
394
1,000
286
2,000
362
1,200
492
1,300
368
1,300
473
8,800
4805
1,300
397
14,000
2416
14,000
1441
1,700
779
1,200
295
4,400
890
Area at
risk (%)
100.0
100.0
99.8
99.9
99.0
96.8
91.2
89.5
80.2
91.0
98.2
62.9
85.6
68.7
72.6
Inland flooding is also serious: Top 15
cities, 2000
Country
City
Population
at risk (%)
Population
at risk ('000)
City Area at
risk (km2)
Area at
risk (%)
Cambodia
Phnom Penh
99.0
988
204
99.0
PRC
Wuhan
82.0
5300
956
82.0
Indonesia
Palembang
80.0
1100
257
49.0
India
Patna
72.0
1100
436
72.0
Bangladesh
Dhaka
60.0
5400
680
48.0
PRC
Nanjing
56.0
2200
749
56.0
Vietnam
Ho Chi Minh
50.0
2800
306
25.0
PRC
Tianjin
50.0
2800
795
38.0
PRC
Huangshi
50.0
624
170
45.0
PRC
Huainan
50.0
614
277
49.0
PRC
Wuhu
47.0
552
140
48.0
Thailand
Bangkok
46.0
4400
2165
36.0
PRC
Bangbu
44.0
510
198
44.0
India
Guwahati
44.0
507
159
35.0
India
Allahabad
42.0
665
230
43.0
Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
Vulnerability will rise with urbanization
Coastal Flooding
410 M
450
Population at Risk (million)
400
4
400
350
Inland Flooding
115
303 M
300
3
250
83
92
341 M
350
300
11
46
245 M
250
8
33
91
200
200
63
63
150
150
100
198
154
50
100
192
141
50
0
2010
East Asia
Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
2025
South Asia
0
2010
Central and West Asia
2025
Southeast Asia
Unique features of Asian urbanization
make challenges more serious...
• Low level = a long way to go
• Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn
• More & bigger megacities = hard to manage
• More slums = higher vulnerability
But, urban agglomeration can help
• Service sector pollutes less
• Manufacturers relocate
• Efficient provision of infrastructure and services
• Better quality of life
• Innovation and higher labor productivity
• Nurture property owners and middle clss
• And ...
The growth/composition/technical
impacts of urbanization on environment
The growth impact may be negative
 The composition effect is positive
 Technical effect is also positive
 Most importantly, Asia as a late comer can
leapfrog R&D and technology
 … and for adopting regulations timely
Environment-Urbanization relation
has improved over time
60
3
Environment-Urbanization Curves
PM10
CO2
2
1990s
1
2000s
2000s
0
10
20
30
40
50
CO2 emissions (mt/capita)
1990s
0
20
40
60
Level of Urbanization (%)
pm10hat1_u
Source: ADB estimates.
pm10hat2_u
80
100
0
20
40
60
Level of Urbanization (%)
co2hat1_u
2000s
80
100
Green urbanization can help shift the
curves further
• Unique patterns of urbanization lead to
megacities with satellite cities: ToD, BRT,
green/compact/eco- cities concepts
• Exploit late comer advantage: import or R&D,
smart grid, circular economy, clean energy, ….
• Timely introduction of regulations, and better
financing and transparency:
pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap
& trade, reduce subsidies, increased block
tariffs, …
Conclusions
• It is counter-productive to contain
urbanization, even for environmental
concerns
• But, urbanization must be steered into a
green path that exploits own unique features
• Asia can achieve green urbanization!
Thank You
www.adb.org