Transcript Campaign Design and Omni Fusion 09

Defence Research and
Development Canada
Recherche et développement
pour la défense Canada
Canada
Campaign Design for Land Operations –
Dealing with Complex Environments and Wicked Problems
Fred Cameron
Defence Research and
Development Canada
Recherche et développement
pour la défense Canada
Canada
Campaign Design for Land Operations
• Introduction: Complex Environments and Wicked Problems
• Background
– Shimon Naveh and Systemic Operational Design
– Australian Army and Adaptive Campaigning
– US Army TRADOC and Commander’s Appreciation and
Campaign Design
• Recent Canadian Army Experience
– TRADOC’s OMNI FUSION 2009: A Divisional Level Design
Team
• Operational Research, Soft System Methods, and Other Initiatives
– Peter Checkland and Soft System Methods
– Critical Thinking
– Creative Thinking
– Conceptual Models
– Data and Statistical Analysis
• Conclusions
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Background
• Complex Environments
– General Rick Hillier and the Strategic Advisory Team
– Afghanistan
• “The complexity of the challenges facing
Afghanistan called for an integrated, long-term
approach to nation-building. Part of that approach
included the work done with the Government of
the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan by the
members of the military planning staff in the ISAF
Headquarters.” Source: LCol Michel St-Louis,
2009
• “Since 2004, Canada has applied a Whole of
Government approach to coordinating its
diplomatic, development and defence resources
in support of the Afghan people’s efforts to rebuild
their country – one of the poorest in the world. A
unique and key part of that effort has been the
deployment of the Kabul-based Canadian Strategic
Advisory Team – Afghanistan; a small team
mandated to assist senior Afghan leadership in
turning vision and goals into workable plans.”
Source: DND Joint Doctrine Note (JDN) 02/2008
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Background
– General Walt Natynchuk and “Actionable
Statistics” in Baghdad
• “I found myself dealing with the strategy,
policy, and plans of Operation Iraqi
Freedom in Baghdad. It was at this stage that
I was introduced to the use of a number of the
products of analysis and saw many examples
of applying analytical techniques to our
mission in OIF … To accomplish this
effectively in such a situation is not easy. The
context can change rapidly with combat
operations, stability operations and PSOs
[Peace Support Operations] often occurring
simultaneously at different places and at
different times.”
• Gen Natynchuk described “how we on the
staff of Combined Joint Task Force 7 (CJTF
7) in Baghdad last year [2004] used statistics
as indicators of what was happening in our
area of responsibility.”
• Wicked Problems
Source: Gen Natynchuk’s Keynote Address in Cornwallis Group X Proceedings, Ted
Woodcock (ed.), 2005 , http://www.thecornwallisgroup.org/workshop_2005.php
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
West Churchman and ‘Wicked Problems’
• Depiction of ‘wicked problems’ started with Professor
Horst Rittel, University of California Architecture
Department, 1967
• ‘Wicked’ is supposed to describe the mischievous and even
evil quality of some problems, where proposed ‘solutions’
often turn out to be worse than the symptoms
• Attempts to tame wicked problems might consist of
‘carving off’ a piece of the problem and finding a rational
and feasible solution to this piece, then leaving for
someone else the untamed part
• Does OR merely ‘take away the growl’? Can we
inadvertently deceive clients?
Source: C West Churchman. “Wicked Problems”.
Management Science, 14:4, December 1967
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Selected Aspects of ‘Wicked Problems’
• Often the humans within the problem make it wicked – their
purposeful behaviours are inadequately understood
• The problem is not understood until after the formulation of a
solution – after some action is taken
• Wicked problems have no ‘stopping rule’ – in military terms: they
lack ‘an exit strategy’
• Approaches to wicked problems are neither right nor wrong – most
come with consequences, and many of those consequences cannot
be anticipated
• Every wicked problem is essentially novel and unique – otherwise
we would simply re-use solutions that worked before
• Every solution to a wicked problem is a ‘one-shot operation’ –
after intervention, we now have a different problem
• See also: Russell Ackoff on Puzzles, Problems, and Messes
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Systemic Operational Design
• Shimon Naveh’s In Pursuit of Military Excellence:
Evolution of Operational Theory and many other
publications
• “Design is a collaborative, interdisciplinary approach to
operations to help the commander develop a fuller
situational understanding, shared with superiors, key
subordinates, partners, and allies so the commander can
formulate a strategy (or stratagem) for changing
unacceptable circumstances to more acceptable ones”
• The First Step for the Design Team:
– ‘an exploration of the sponsor’s motivation and
expectations’
Sound Familiar?
Source: Richard Swain, “Commander’s Business: Learning to Practice
Operational Design” in Joint Forces Quarterly, Spring 2009
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
TRADOC Pam 525-5-500: Commander’s
Appreciation and Campaign Design
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
OMNI FUSION 2009 (OF09)
• OMNI FUSION Series: Multi-year army experiments conducted to
discover, refine and/or validate organizational relationships between
corps/division headquarters and the different brigades in a future joint,
interagency, and multinational operational environment
• OMNI FUSION 09:
– Included several preparation activities starting immediately following
OMNI FUSION 08 (planning conferences, seminars, etc.)
– Focused on division-level operations
– Simultaneously used five Army simulations (OneSAF, ATCOM,
FireSim, EADSIM, and CES)
– A closed wide-area network, linking major US Army experimentation
centers: Ft Leavenworth, Ft Sill, Ft Rucker, Ft Benning, Ft Bliss, Ft
Monroe, Ft Gordon, Ft Bragg, Ft Leonard Wood, and Huntsville
– Simulation Exercise 13-31 July with over 460 personnel
– Canadian, British, and Australian participation
– British C2 interoperability: representation from Land Warfare Centre,
UK 12 Mechanized Brigade, Dstl, NITEWORKS
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
OMNI FUSION 09: Fictional Aegean
Regional Overview
Elis
• Fledgling democracy.
• Strong ethnic and religious
ties to Attica.
• Elis’ relations with U.S. and
West have created tension
with Attica.
Attica
• Stable, prosperous society with popular support for dictatorship.
• Ethnic and religious diversity unified by political ideology.
• Strong economy: oil/gas, manufacturing, agriculture and mining.
• Popular dislike of Western cultures.
• Extensive economic and diplomatic ties to Laconia and extra-regional
countries, to include arms imports.
EXCON
Experiment Architecture
BCBL-L
HICON
Analysis
Green Control
Red Control
Tech Control
XXX
IX
Theater Assets
XX
Theater
Support Cmd
Theater
IO Group
JSOTF
JPOTF
USASOC-FC
USASOC-FC
Red Operations
Ground MBL
Rotary AMBL
FW Air SMDBL
Fires
FBL
UAV
AMBL/SMDBL
7
X
X
1
X
CA
AS 4
UK 1
12
MBL
MBL
MBL
X
X
X
SUST
7
X
X
205 MED
4
5
MBL
FCS
FFID
X
X
7
7
7
FBL
MSBL
Fully Functional, not fully manned (BCBL-L led, CoP)
Brigade Staff (CoP)
Response Cells (CoP)
Admin & Support (BCBL-L, TRISA, CoP)
HICON, IX Corps, (BCBL-L, CoP)
Theater Response Cell (CoP)
CP Located at BCBL-L
X
H
AMBL
Blue Operations
Ground
MBL
Air OPS
AMBL
CAS
FBL
Fires
FBL
UAV
SMDBL/AMBL
ADA
AMDBL
Multi-National Participation
UK
United Kingdom
CA
Canada
AS
Australia
Community of Practice CoP Battle Labs
AMBL
AMDBL
BCBL-G
BCBL-H
FBL
MSBL
MBL
SMDBL
Sust BL
USASOC-FC
Air Maneuver Battle Lab (Ft Rucker)
Air and Missile Defense Battle Lab (Ft Bliss)
Battle Command Battle Lab – Gordon (Ft Gordon)
Battle Command Battle Lab – Huachuca (Ft Huachuca)
Fires Battle Lab (Ft Sill)
Maneuver Support Battle Lab (Ft Leonard Wood)
Maneuver Battle Lab: Virtual Constructive Simulation Directorate
(Ft Benning)
Space and Missile Defense Battle Lab (Huntsville, AL)
Sustainment Battle Lab (Ft Lee)
US Army Special Operations Cmd - Futures Center (Ft Bragg)
Omni Fusion SIMEX
Week 2 (20 – 24 July 09)
PREP TIME
OMNI FUSION 2009 BATTLE RHYTHM
Time
(EDT)
Time
(CDT)
0800
0700
0830
0730
0900
0800
0930
0830
1000
0900
Game
Time
Mon: 20 Jul 09
Tues: 21 Jul 09
31/5/17
Wed: 22 Jul 09
(WEEK #2)
Thu: 23 Jul 09
Fri: 24 Jul 09
Sat: 25 Jul 09
Sun: 26 Jul 09
No Activities
Scheduled
No Activities
Scheduled
Prep Time
Participants Arrive / Logged On
Final Staff and
Tech Support
Preparations
Distributed Sites Readiness Report
Simulation Run
SIMULATION RUN TIME
COMMEX
1030
0930
1100
1000
1130
1030
1200
1100
1230
1130
1300
1200
1330
1230
1400
1300
1430
1330
1500
1400
1530
1430
1600
1500
1630
1530
1700
1600
1730
1630
1800
1700
1830
1730
1900
1800
Conduct CUB
Survey Window
2000
Survey Window
2100
2200
Analyst / Role Player Hot
Wash
2300
EXCON Meeting
Survey Window
PREP FOR NEXT DAY
Week #2 Ends
0000
Analyst / Role Player Hot Wash
Staff Leader Time
EXCON Meeting
Next Day Prep
Omni Fusion SIMEX
Week 3 (27 – 31 July 09)
PREP FOR NEXT DAY
SIMULATION RUN TIME
PREP TIME
OMNI FUSION 2009 BATTLE RHYTHM
Time
(EDT)
Time
(CDT)
Game
Time
0800
0700
1/6/17
0830
0730
0900
0800
0930
0830
1000
0900
1030
0930
1100
1000
1130
1030
Mon: 27 Jul 09
Tues: 28 Jul 09
Wed: 29 Jul 09
Participants Arrive / Logged On
Distributed Sites Readiness Report
SIMEX RECORD RUN
1300
1200
1330
1230
1400
1300
1430
1330
Survey Window
1500
1400
SIMEX PAUSE
1530
1430
1700
1600
1730
1630
1800
1700
1830
1730
1900
1800
Post Experiment
Initial Insights Brief
Survey Window
1100
1500
Arrive
In Seats
Final Surveys
1130
1530
Sat: 1 Aug 09
Showcase Day
Staff and Tech Support
Preparation
1200
1600
Fri: 31 Jul 09
Prep Time
1230
1630
(WEEK #3)
Thu: 30 Jul 09
Recognition and
Closing Remarks
OF09 ENDEX
Travel
Analyst / Role Player Hot Wash
Staff Leader Time
Showcase Day
Travel
EXCON Meeting
Victory Party
Havana Beach Club
Sun: 2 Aug 09
‘Design’ within OMNI FUSION 09
• ‘Design’ (after several regenerations)
– Formerly known as ‘Commander’s Appreciation and
Campaign Design’, TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500
– ‘A cognitive model intended for use by commanders
charged with designing, planning, and executing
military campaigns.’
– ‘An approach to critical and creative thinking that
enables a commander to create understanding about
a unique situation and on that basis, to visualize and
describe how to generate change.’
• For more, see the OMNI FUSION blog:
http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/blog/blogs/bcbl/
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Canadian Army Participants Response to
‘Design’ in OF09
• ‘Design’ will be a valuable procedure for the military
• Difficulties at OF09 replicating suitable conditions for
‘design’
• Lack of ‘richness’ in the OF09 scenario – depth of
detail on social factors, including role players
• Lack of mature understanding across the coalition force
• Design principles seem useful down to tactical level,
but different ‘design structures and procedures’ may
evolve at different level of headquarters
• Canada will propose a Project Team on ‘Design’ within
the ABCA Armies’ Programme: armies of America
(incl. USMC), Britain (incl. RM), Canada, Australia,
and New Zealand
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
The Role of Operational
Research/Operational Analysis
• Remember: ‘The application of simple models
in a complex environment’ 26ISMOR Subtheme #2
• Remember: ‘All models are wrong, but some
models are useful.’ – George Box
• Review past successes in complex
environments when tackling wicked problems
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Peter Checkland and Soft System Methods
•
Four Characteristics:
1. Every situation is a ‘human situation’ with people
taking ‘purposeful action’
2. Many interpretations of any declared purpose
(choices must be made and declared)
3. There will be a huge number of human activity
models which could be built (which are relevant?)
4. Many perspectives or viewpoints on the model(s)
• Rich Pictures
• Other Diagramming Methods
Source: Peter Checkland. “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective”,
Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17, S11–S58 (2000)
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Rich Pictures
• See: Open University Course: Systems Thinking and Practice:
Diagramming http://systems.open.ac.uk/materials/t552/index.htm
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Source: Peter Checkland. “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective”,
Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17, S11–S58 (2000)
Some Other Tools Associated with
Operational Research
• Critical Thinking
– Devil’s Advocates and Red Teaming
– ‘Everyone’s a Critic’
• Creative Thinking
– Learning Organizations
– Example: Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
• Conceptual Models
– Influence Diagrams and System Dynamics
Modelling
– Social Network Analysis
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Influence Diagrams and Feedback Loops
• See: Open University Course: Systems Thinking and Practice:
Diagramming http://systems.open.ac.uk/materials/t552/index.htm
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
A Complex Problem and System Dynamics
Source: Based on testimony of Jay W. Forrester at the Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee
on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, on October 7, 1970 (Forrester, 1995)
Data, Statistical Analysis, and Metrics
• Measures of Effectiveness and Stability Indicators
– In Canadian Forces doctrine, many of these were derived from
examples used in Bosnia
• Opinion Surveys in Operational Theatres
• Metrics for Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations
– Outlined for the Canadian Army in Doctrine
• Civil-Military Cooperation in Peace, Emergencies, Crisis
and War B-GG-005-004/AF-023, Jan 1999
• Counter-Insurgency Operations B-GL-323-004/FP-003,
Dec 2008
– Outlined for the US in Doctrine
• Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24, Dec 2006
• Stability Operations Field Manual 3-07, Oct 2008
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Kandahar Surveys: Sample of Results
• First comprehensive poll of the Afghan population of
Kandahar Province
• Conducted 14-28 March 2007 by 56 Afghan interviewers
from ACSOR Surveys (Afghan-American joint venture)
• 1287 interviews across 18 Districts of Kandahar Province
• Most interviews conducted in Pashto (others in Dari)
• Women interviewed by female interviewers
Extract from Cameron Presentation at 24ISMOR, 2007
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Conclusion
•
Military clients are stumbling into areas where
operational research has been before them… though in
other contexts
• The Operational Research and Analysis community needs
an action plan:
1. Determine the Military Stakeholders and Requirement
2. Inventory Suitable Operational Analysis/Research
Methods
3. Collaborate with Military Sponsors
4. Experiment and Initiate Cyclical Development: Act,
Sense, Decide… about the Design procedures
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
References
• Stefan Banack “Educating by Design: Preparing Leaders for a Complex World” Military
Review, Mar-Apr 2009, pp. 96-104
• Stefan Banach and Alex Ryan, “The Art of Design: A Design Methodology” Military Review,
Mar-Apr 2009, pp 105-115
• Peter Checkland, “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective” Systems Research
and Behavioral Science 17, S11–S58 (2000)
• Chief of Force Development, The Strategic Advisory Team Afghanistan, Canadian Forces Joint
Doctrine Note 02/08, Ottawa, May 2008
• West Churchman, “Wicked Problems”, Management Science, 14:4, Dec 1967, pp. B-141-142
• Jay Forrester, “Counterintutive Behavior of Social Systems”, 1995,
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4468-2.pdf (accessed 7 Aug 2009)
• Anne-Marie Grisogono and Alex Ryan, “Operationalising Adaptive Campaigning” Proceedings
of International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, June 2007
http://www.dodccrp.org/events/12th_ICCRTS/ (accessed 7 Aug 2009)
• Walter Natynczyk “Keynote Address: Actionable Statistics” in Proceeding of Cornwallis Group
X (Ted Woodcock, ed.), March 2005, http://www.thecornwallisgroup.org/workshop_2005.php
• Naveh Shimon, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: Evolution of Operational Theory, Taylor &
Francis, 1997
• Michel-Henri St-Louis, “The Strategic Advisory Team in Afghanistan” Canadian Military
Journal, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2009
• Richard Swain, “Commander’s Business: Learning to Practice Operational Design”, Joint
Forces Quarterly, 53, Spring, 2009, pp 61-68
• Milan Vigo, “A Case Against Systemic Operational Design”, Joint Forces Quarterly, 53,
Spring, 2009 69-75
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Defence R&D Canada – CORA • R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO
Defence Research and
Development Canada
Recherche et développement
pour la défense Canada
Canada