Transcript Forskellige overblik - Technical University of Denmark

A Strategizing Perspective in Foresight
- in search of theories behind foresight
Presentation at the YIRCoF’11
Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresight and Futures
August 24-26, 2011, Istanbul
Per Dannemand Andersen*, Allan Dahl Andersen, Birgitte Rasmussen
Section of Innovation Systems and Foresight
* [email protected]
Motivation – 1
Foresight as a practice
• Foresight is a well-established field of practice
– Use in public policy and in business
– Profession: foresight professionals in government, business,
consultancies etc.
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
Motivation – 2
Roots of today’s practice of foresight
American tradition on technology
forecasting from 1940s and 1950s
• American experiences from defence
and aerospace
• A linear understanding of innovation
• Experts point of view (elite scientists
and industrialists)
• Positivistic view on development and
the future
• Engineering and econometrics
European tradition on futures
studies from 1960s and 1970s
• European experiences from dealing
with grand societal challenges
• Futures studies as an art
• (Participatory) creative and
imaginative thinking and acting
• Pessimistic view on development and
technology
• Humanities and social sciences
International tradition on foresight developed since mid-1980s
• International experiences from national foresights exercises for priority-setting in
science, technology & innovation (STI) policy
• Starting with Japan, Germany, France, Korea and UK
• Reflecting new understandings within
• Systems of innovation / innovation policy
• Strategic planning
• The new science (Mode 2, Triple-Helix, socially robust)
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
Motivation - 3
Foresight as an academic discipline
• ‘..an academic discipline, or field of
study, is a branch of knowledge
that is taught and researched at
the college or university level.
Disciplines are defined (in part),
and recognized by the academic
journals in which research is
published, and the learned
societies and academic
departments or faculties to which
their practitioners belong.
• Fields of study usually have
several .. branches, and the
distinguishing lines between these
are often both arbitrary and
ambiguous’
(http://www.thefreedictionary.com
referring to Abbot, 2001).
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
• Full masters programs (e.g. USA,
Australia)
• Foresight courses at (technical?)
universities and business schools
• Academic journals (e.g. Foresight,
Futures, TFSC)
• Learned societies??
• Conferences (e.g YIRCoF ’11)
• Departments/groups at universities
• Ambiguous distinctions between
forecasting, foresight, futures
studies, strategic planning, etc?
Motivation – 4
The gab between practice and theory
• most academic foresight literature reflect the practice of foresight as it is
descriptive or normative (Georghiou et al., 2008; Popper, 2008)
• is generally acknowledged that there is gap between practice and theory
in foresight (Hideg, 2007, Barré & Keenan, 2008; Weber et al., 2010)
• recently literature has discussed ‘theoretical underpinning’ of foresight
and possible theory building in foresight (Fuller & Loogma, 2009; Öner,
2010; Borch, Forthcoming).
• Our aim: to contribute to the discussion on the theoretical perspectives
behind the practice of foresight
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
What is theory ?
• (T)heory is .. ’a set of statements or principles devised to explain a group
of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or
is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural,
social or other phenomena’. (http://www.thefreedictionary.com)
• (t)heory: structured assumptions, concepts, structured empirical
observations etc.
• We agree in ’that there is no such thing as a Grand Theory of Foresight
and Futures Studies’ (Öner, 2010)
• We agree in that theories of Foresight and Futures Studies draw from
academic disciplines such as
– management, computer sciences, cultural anthropology, economics,
history, industrial engineering (decision sciences), mathematics,
philosophy and ethics, political science, psychology, public
administration, social psychology, sociology, statistics, systems
theory, etc (Öner, 2010).
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
What is foresight theory
• Reference lists in foresight literature support that the practice of foresight
indirectly builds on lots of theory (assumptions, concepts, structured
empirical observations, etc.).
• E.g. foresight articles in journals such as Foresight, Futures, TFSC, TASM
• A preliminary literature survey indicates that several more established
academic fields contribute to foresight. The following seems to be the most
important:
– evolutionary economics or systems of innovation approach:
Schumpeter, Nelson & Winter, Freeman, Lundvall, Pavitt, Dosi, etc.
– strategic planning: Penrose, Porter, Mintzberg, Prahalad & Hamel,
Nonaka & Takeuchi, etc.
– futures studies: Wack, Slaughter, Inayatullah, Masini, Dator, Glenn,
Schwartz, Halal, Sardar, etc.
– science and technology studies (STS) Kuhn, Popper, Nowotny,
Gibbons, Fuller, Rip, Latour, Giddens, Foucault, Scott, etc.
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
What is foresight ?
1980s (1983)
• Foresight is “.. a convenient shorthand for efforts to identify “which
research areas are likely to lead to the greatest economic and social
benefits”” (Martin, 2010)
1990s
• Technology foresight is defined as ”.. systematic attempts to look into the
longer-term future of science, technology, economy and society with a
view to identifying emerging generic technologies to yield the greatest
economical and/or social benefits” (Martin, 1995; OECD, 1996; inspired
by Irvine & Martin)
2000s
• Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and
medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at enabling presentday decisions and mobilising joint actions (European Foresight Platform,
2011; FOREN, 2001).
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
What is foresight ?
The practice of foresight has changed (e.g.; Georghiou, 2001, Miles et al.
2008; Miles, 2010)
– from focusing on intra-organisational planning and forecasting in
science and technology policy
– to put more emphasis on open and inter-organisational strategizing
with inclusion of external stakeholders in the processes in innovation
policy making
Consequently:
– the search of theories behind foresight can not be limited to issues
concerning forecasting or visioning future developments
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
A strategizing and transition managment
perspective
• Strategizing can be seen as a transition process in which the system,
organization or regime is directed towards a common goal (Giddens,
1984; Nygaard, 2006)
• Transition management of organizational or societal systems requires
three types of knowledge generation (Wiek et al. 2006):
– System knowledge: concepts and data about the relevant systemic
structures, micro- and macro-processes, linear and non-linear
interrelations etc., aiming at an integrative understanding of the
system under consideration.
– Target knowledge: guiding concepts, visions, norms, preferences etc.
– Transformation knowledge: information on how to realize the
transition from the current to the target state. It comprises
knowledge about all kind of strategies, programmes, instruments as
well as political and economic constraints, conflicts and scopes of
action.
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
A strategizing perspective
- on search of theories behind foresight
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
Co-evolution of understandings
Innovation system
Freeman, 1987:
• .. network of institutions in
the public- and privatesectors whose activities and
interactions initiate, import,
modify and diffuse new
technologies
Lundvall et al, 2009:
• .. an open, evolving and
complex system that
encompasses relationships
within and between
organisations, institutions
and socioeconomic
structures which determine
the rate and direction of
innovation and competence
building emanating from
processes of science based
and experience based
learning
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Foresight
STI policy governance
Martin, 1995:
• .. the process involved in
systematically attempting to
look into the longer-term future
of science, technology, the
economy and society with the
aim of identifying the areas of
strategic research and the
emerging generic technologies
likely to yield the greatest
economical and social benefits”
Lundvall & Borrás (2006)
Science policy “.. about
allocating sufficient resources
to sciences, (and) to
distribute them wisely
between activities”
EFP, 2011; FOREN, 2001
• ..a systematic, participatory,
future-intelligence-gathering
and medium-to-long-term
vision-building process aimed
at enabling present-day
decisions and mobilising joint
actions
Innovation policy (today)“.. the
reviewing and redesigning of
linkages between parts of the
system”
“..closer cooperation vertically
between user and producers
and sometimes even
horizontally among
competitors”
DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
Technology policy “.. focus on
technologies and sectors ..
especially science-based
technologies”
Our focus
• Many scholars (e.g. Bowman, Dawson, Mintzberg, Pettigrew, van de Ven)
emphasize that organizational processes cannot be understood in an
acontextual cross, cross-sectional manner (Balogun et al. 2003).
Our focus is on
• Sectoral (industrial sector or branch) foresight exercises
• Target public policy making
• A particular case: the Agri-Food sector in rural areas of Denmark
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
Theory contributions to foresight
- a few examples
Innovation systems
• Systems evolve over
time in a pathdependent manner
(Johnson, Edquist
2003)
Foresight/Futures Studies
• Experts are overoptimistic in Delphi
exercises’ assessment
of occurrence (Tichy,
2004)
STI policy governance
• Policy initiatives
should be made to
find specific solutions
via experimentation
and learning (Rodrik
(2006)
• Knowledge innovation • The ’Foresight Diamant’
periods are followed
(Popper, 2008)
• Public procurement is
by knowledge
an important tool in
consolidation periods
innovation policy
and they seem to
(Edler & Georghiou,
match the long waves
2006)
in the economy
(Linstone, 2002)
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark
Summing up
• The presentation has contributed to the discussion on theories behind
foresight.
• Foresight is emerging as an academic field with a theoretical framework
that draw from many other more established disciplines.
• For sector oriented foresight exercises these disciplines in particular must
include theories from the innovation system approach and governance of
STI policy.
• We label this a strategizing perspective to foresight.
Implication:
• It might be useful to agree on such existing framework (and on which
language to use) beside developing new theories of foresight and futures
studies.
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DTU Management Engineering,
Technical University of Denmark