Transcript Slide 1

Social uthållighet i den svenska glesbygden
brott, upplev oro för brott och brottsförebyggande i
glesbygdssamhällen
Social sustainability in rural Sweden: crime, perceived safety and crime prevention
Grant 251-2007-1954
Vania Ceccato
School of Architecture and the Built Environment
Royal Institute of Technology
Lars Dolmen
The Swedish National Police Academy
Jönköping, 14th October 2010
Aim and objectives of the study
The aim of this project is to assess crime, perceived safety and crime prevention practices as
dimensions of social sustainability in Swedish rural communities.
Environment
Safety
Economic
Social
This will be achieved by:
1) investigating how crime levels in rural municipalities reflect the demographic and socio-economic changes that
have been taking place during the last decade.
2) looking for patterns of perception of safety in rural communities.
3) assessing differences and/or similarities in crime prevention measures in a group of rural communities.
Crime in rural municipalities
FINDINGS
1. Crime in rural areas
2. Perceived safety
3. Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)
Crime in rural municipalities by type
1996-2007
Total crime per 10 000 inhabitants (index=100)
140
Crime rates per 10 000 inhabitants
1600
1400
1200
1996
2007
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Remote Rural
Acessible Rural
Urban Areas
135
Remote Rural
130
125
Accessible Rural
120
115
Urban Areas
110
105
100
1996 1997 1988 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
AR = 776 to 982 crimes per 10.000 inhabitants 1996-2007
Changes in offences 1996 to 2007
Offences per 100 000 inhabitants
All offences
Violence
Assault women
Assault unknown outdoors
Theft
Burglary
Car theft
Theft from motor vehicle
Robbery
Burglary in cellar or attic
Theft from stores
Drug offences
Criminal damage
Remote Rural Accessible
–
Rural - AR
Urban Area
RR (%)
(%)
– UA (%)
Sweden (%)
33,1
26,5
12,9
17,0
119,0
85,9
58,6
66,2
108,1
76,7
44,8
53,3
121,4
108,3
74,6
83,3
-12,4
-11,9
-21,5
-20,2
17,1
12,2
-3,7
-2,4
8,2
-32,8
-50,2
-48,5
3,3
-9,5
-32,5
-29,9
21,3
63,8
49,2
43,9
-64,5
-18,3
-60,2
-57,8
-10,9
-5,0
-9,2
-8,6
-2,4
221,7
138,0
158,4
52,8
53,9
54,1
56,9
Geographical shifts in thefts 1996-2007
A municipality’s crime levels and
its underlying criminogenic conditions
Demography
Socio-economic
conditions
Life style
Land use/
location
Global, national, regional and local contextual factors
e.g., welfare state, regional policy, policing
Causal factor
Population shifts affect
density of acquaintanceship
Age composition affect social
interaction
Inequality in the distribution
of economic resources
Poverty, e.g., as a result in
Change of family structure
Criminogenic condition
Socio-economic instability,
‘normalessness’, less social
control
Young male pop, potentially
more offenders
Elderly, more guardianship
Working pop, less guardianship
Anomy, socio-economic
exclusion may motivate
individuals towards crime
Consumption of goods,
media, internet
More goods, more targets
More sites where motivated
offenders and potential targets
interact, e.g., Internet
Alcohol consumption,
premises selling alcohol
Changes in social interactions,
more alcohol selling premises
Dynamics of the border
(Norway, Denmark, Finland, Baltic sea)
Accessible rural areas are at
higher risk than remote ones
Easier movement of goods
and people, difficult to detect
Quick exit from the scene
of the crime, greater commuting
flows, higher pop density
Offence outcome
Pop inflow/outflow,
daily commuters/ temporary
visitors: more thefts & violence
Young male pop: more offences
Elderly: less offences
More violence
More property crimes
More property crimes,
Cyber crimes
More violence, domestic
and in public
Some offences committed
by short time visitors. Smuggling
lead to other illegal activities
More property crimes
More violence
Crime will take place in rural areas where ...
YoungMale
Divorce
Foreigner
Unemp
PopIncrease
Income
VoterTurnout
Demo
Police
AlcoServ
AlcoPurch
PopDens
Border
Triangle
Accessible Rural
R-square
AIC
Log Likelihood
Schwarz criterion
Moran’s I on
residuals
Theft
1996
Theft
2007
Violence
1996
Violence
2007
OLS
.1045**
(2.45)
.1664***
(5.70)
-.0129
(-1.53)
.0052
(.427)
-.0002
(-.163)
.0006
(.262)
.0009
(.107)
.0372
(.609)
.0313*
(1.95)
.0077***
(3.76)
.0909
(1.47)
.0018
(1.54)
-.0478
(-.996)
.1519***
(2.99)
.1065
(1.44)
.5127
21.420
5.289
72.148
Spatial Error
.0466
(1.24)
.1116***
(4.98)
-.0119
(-1.45)
.0728***
(2.86)
.0004***
(3.50)
.0022
(1.45)
-.0072
(-.988)
-.0214
(-.620)
.0295**
(2.01)
.0080***
(5.13)
.1720**
(2.42)
.0003
(.038)
-.1339***
(-3.04)
.0639
(.928)
.2320***
(3.77)
.5910
-13.516
22.758
37.211
OLS
.0650
(.896)
.1480***
(2.98)
.0074
(.514)
.0262
(1.26)
-.0003
(1.186)
.0048
(.129)
-.0189
(-1.30)
.0669
(.643)
.0630**
(2.31)
.0079**
(2.79)
.1332**
(1.27)
.0018
(.895)
-.0122
(-.149)
.2260***
(2.62)
.0658
(.521)
.3412
208.458
-88.229
259.186
OLS
.1646***
(2.61)
.1373***
(4.80)
.0093
(.911)
.0614
(1.84)
.0002
(1.10)
.0036
(1.64)
.0012
(.111)
.1058
(1.90)
.0831***
(3.43)
.0055**
(2.28)
-.0379
(-.363)
-.0016
(-1.23)
-.0340
(-.564)
.0920
(1.44)
.1794**
(1.98)
.3780
93.884
-30.942
144.612
-.004
-.139
.027
-.005
•proportion of young male population
•alcohol-selling premises
•characteristics of family structure
•Accessible rural areas
•Southern Sweden
“Crime rates are found higher where urban
criminogenic conditions emerge, not necessarily
in urban areas; but in settings that have strong
links with urban centres – Accessible rural areas.”
Notes: t and z-values with brackets, respectively. *** Significant at the 1 per cent level; ** significant at the 5 per cent level; * significant at the 10 per cent level
FINDINGS
1. Crime in rural areas
2. Perceived safety
3. Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)
Perceived safety in rural municipalities
Nationella
Trygghetsundersökningen,
NTU
Syfte
2005 - 2008
n = 20 000 (10 000) / år
16-79 år
Bortfall, 22 – 30 %
Lund 10%
Malmö 30%
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Otrygg i bostadsomr.
Avstått aktivitet pga oro
Remote rural
Accessible rural
Livskvalitet
Urban area
Does increase in population affect fear?
OLS results – Y = Perceived fear
Overall fear Fear in the
Fear affects behaviour
neighbourhood
OLS
OLS
OLS
Pop Increase -.000006
.00006**
. 00004*
Unemployment
-.008
.0006**
.0003
Income
.0002
.0009*
.0005*
VoterTurnout
.0002
-.002*
.001
Witness
-.153
.092*
.010
FamilyVictim
.087
.017
.145***
Victim
.155**
.096***
.074**
Urban area
.049**
.058***
.034***
Accessible
rural
R-square
.046**
.037***
.017*
.118
.325
.285
Data: National Victimisation Survey, 2006, 2007, 2008
1. Crime in rural areas
2. Perceived safety
3. Actions towards safety (Crime prevention)
Crime prevention in rural municipalities
CRIME PREVENTION IN SWEDEN IS DOMINATED BY ”BIG CITY PROBLEMS”
EXISTENT TOOLS ARE NOT FIT TO ASSESS ”RURAL CONTEXT”
What is crime prevention in rural areas in Sweden?
How do they work? To what extent crime prevention groups are part of the
local community organisation?
Do they differ between types of municipalities/parts of Sweden?
Crime prevention in rural municipalities
High crime
Arvika (North)
Markaryd (South)
Åre (North)
Gotland (South)
Old Economy
Half are active
Local Crime
Prevention
Groups (LCPG)
New economy
Dorotea (North)
Gnosjö (South)
Storuman (North)
Söderköping (South)
Low crime
No. of face-to-face Interviews: 48 - from Police officers to NGOs
Interviews were performed between March and May 2010
What is Crime Prevention in rural areas?
Crime prevention groups aim at co-ordinating actions between local actors
(limited to public spaces, often within municipalities boundaries)
“…handlar om social kontroll. Det är i särklass den bästa brottsförebyggande effekten som vi har
i det lilla samhället, närvaro och alla känner alla”
(Police inspector, Southern Sweden)
”…det här med att skapa god kontakt mellan barn och vuxna”
(Head of CP group, Southern Sweden)
”… gäller ju både droger, kriminalitet och våld, både inom nära relationer och utåt på olika
platser”
(Social care, Northern Sweden)
”.... brottsförebyggande är väldigt mycket. Vi jobbar med integration och flyktingar för jag
känner att väldigt mycket av det är också ett arbete förebyggande mot hedersvåld och liknande”
(NGO, Southern Sweden)
Actions in rural communities
• Youth problems and drug/alchool related problems – priority (storstads problem?)
•Crime prevention groups in rural areas show indications of being well prepared to deal with
minor common youth problems “Alla vårt ansvar”
•have a stronger impact on social life of youngsters than they would have had in bigger cities
because of the smaller supply of social activities in rural areas (church, ungdomsgård, etc)
• Institutionalized actions more than product of “eldsjälar” (sectoral)
Homogenous structure – why are not farmers in CP, for example?
---- power in the community, conflicts of interest
•Geographical, economic and cultural barriers limit the work of those involved in CP in North
and South Sweden
”Jag bor 12,5 mil härifrån. Så jag bor hos min far och på station i veckorna.
Det är en liten kommun men lite speciellt för vi har två näpoområden.
Men det är ju många mil emellan, så det är en naturlig del i det.
(Police officer, Northern Sweden)
“Det är en annan syn här på alkoholen. Attityden….. Ja, kommer du på ett föräldramöte och lägger upp det
på fel sätt så kan du bli ordentligt utskälld alltså. Så det gäller att verkligen tänka sig för hur man ska säga saker
(Mental care advisor, Northern Sweden)
• Actions are little evidence-based, many projects are copied from elsewhere
• Although CP covers large areas, little co-operation with external actors – differences
between Northern and Southern municipalities
• New economy municipalities – Police officers in these areas are more focused on
the temporary problems
Future research questions
Accessible rural is a space in transition – these communities are tied up with traditional
economy and life styles but are now facing new problems
Challenges to :
•
To re-think ”rural” not as a ”non-urban” in terms of risk for crime and perceived safety
•
Safety in rural communities has to be adressed with focus on individual groups:
We need to know what young people, elderly, women, minorities ... think!!!
•
Environmental crimes have to be an issue for future research. Poor official statistics
• Domestic violence in rural areas is an area that has also been neglected. NTU data & police
statistics are not able to produce a regional and more local picture
• To better understand Crime Prevention actions in rural areas
their role to improve safety in rural communities and overall impact on community life
To what extent social capital affects CP’s performance?
Thank you!
New school bus is vandalised by students between Klimpfjäll and Vilhelmina.
After this experience, the bus driver is concerned about his own safety, reported
Västerbotten-Kuriren.
Another event occurred in Säter, Dalarna, where a serious crime against the
environment took place, after four males dumped and burned 200 hundred litres
of explosive fluid close to water reservoirs, reported the Swedish newspaper
Dagens Nyheter .
In a more extreme account, the same newspaper reported the case of a young
man who admitted to kill his wife, dumping her body in an oil tank in
Teckomatorp, in Southern Sweden.
In central Sweden, Dalarnas Tidningar , had an article on a 25 year old male that
admitted to assault physically another male in Vansbro, causing facial fractures
and bleeding.
Not far away, in Strömsund, parents started an association that together with the
Police and school is intended to decrease alcohol consumption among local
teenagers and young people‘
These events took place in 2007 in the heart of the Swedish rural areas.
Safety and the rural areas
• Rural crime rates are lower than in urban areas
• Most people live in urban areas
Why should we care?
•
•
•
•
Bigger impact of crimes in rural communities
About 2 million people live in some sort of rural areas
Changes in pop structure and flows
Safety is an important dimension of sustainability of communties
Safety as a dimension of social sustainability
in rural Sweden
Environment
Economic
Social
Safety
A sustainable community is “a place free from the fear of crime, from crime,
where a feeling of security underpins a wider sense of place attachment and place attractiveness”.
Raco (2007:306)
Five hypothetical scenarious
Youth related problems, ethnic related violence, domestic violence, organised crime
and environmental offences
Sent by email to CP representatives in rural areas
78 rural municipalities
Actions in rural communities
• Actions are little evidence-based, many
projects are copied
• Although CP covers large areas, little cooperation beyond municipal borders or with
external actors
• New economy municipalities – CP deals with
seasonality challenges without major
disruption in daily routine
Police officers in these areas are more focused
on the temporary problems
”Vi försöker göra lite sånt inför sommarens oreda. Där är det ju många aktörer att samordna, det handlar om alkoholservering,
information om alkoholförtäringsförbudet som finns i X, det måste finnas en fungerande tillnyktringsenhet, det handlar
om polisiära patrulleringsinsatser, tillsyn av krogar, m.m. Utifrån det har vi varje vår haft serier med möten inland många
och ibland kortare överläggningar. Där vi mobiliserar inför sommaren, medvetandegör varann, koll på resurserna inför sommaren.
Sen har vi alltid ett summeringsmöte efter sommaren”
(Safety coordinator)