Future Prediction Methodologies using expert groups The Delphi Method and The Nominal Group Technique

The Delphi Method

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The Delphi Method is a group decision process about the likelihood that certain events will occur. Today it is also used for environmental, marketing and sales forecasting.

The Delphi Method uses a panel of experts.

Expert responses to a series of questionnaires are anonymous.

Each round of questionnaires results in a median answer.

The process guides the group towards a consensus.

Delphi in Context

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The Delphi technique was invented by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation in 1953 for the purpose of addressing a specific military problem. The object of the Delphi method is to obtain a reliable response to a problem from a group of experts.

In a Delphi study, the participants do not interact with one another, Delphi technique is used today in business, education, and the social sciences

DELPHI METHOD DETAIL

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The Delphi method is an exercise in group communication among a panel of geographically dispersed experts (Adler and Ziglio, 1996). It allows experts to deal systematically with a complex problem or task. A series of questionnaires are sent either by mail or email to a pre-selected group of experts. According to Fowles (1978) anonymity, controlled feedback, and statistical response characterize Delphi. Interaction in Delphi is anonymous, comments, forecasts, etc are presented to the group in such a way as to suppress any identification.

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DELPHI METHOD PROCESS

Fowles (1978) describes ten steps for the Delphi method: 1.Formation of a Delphi team to undertake a Delphi on a subject. 2.Selection of expert panel(s).

3.Development of the first round questionnaire 4.Testing the questionnaire for proper wording. 5.Transmission to the panelists. 6. Analysis of 1st responses 7. Preparation of 2 nd round.

8. Transmission of 2 nd round questionnaires to the panelists 9.Analysis of the 2 nd round responses (7 to 9 may be repeated to get consensus) 10. Preparation and presentation of report

Modified Delphi- The Nominal Group Technique

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The Nominal Group Technique is a face to face Delphi based method, allowing group discussion.

It adds a personal dimension to the methodology.

The use of consensus is common to both techniques

Nominal Group Procedure

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Groups of 5 or 6 experts, are seated around a table. They are given an open ended question.

Several minutes of silence enable individuals to reflect on the question and make notes Ideas are shared (one response per person each time), while all are recorded, on a flipchart. No criticism is allowed, but clarification in response to questions is encouraged. Each person evaluates the ideas and individually and anonymously votes for the best ones Votes are shared and tabulated within the group. A group report is prepared, showing the ideas receiving the most points. The group is briefed on their responses and proposals.

How to use Delphi / NGT in your Country Study.

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Identify your problem area (eg Gender , Education, Family etc) Describe the problem in detail Assume you are the expert group facilitator – explain what experts you would choose for your group and why.

Describe how your experts would deal with the task in hand Predict possible solutions

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Sources and Links…

http://www.iit.edu/~it/delphi.html

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/2005/RM5888.pdf

http://www.rand.org/about/history/ http://www.cia.gov/csi/kent_csi/docs/v20i2a03p_0004.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch4en/meth4en/ch4m3en.ht

ml http://www.winona.edu/advising/LCChapter3.htm

http://www.joe.org/joe/1984march/iw2.html

http://www.ag.ohio-state.edu/~bdg/pdf_docs/d/F06.pdf

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